Bitcoin has lingered around the 95K resistance area over the previous week. In my opinion this is a sub wave iii completion (5 mini waves can be counted within the bullish breakout leg). This implies there is a greater probability of a retrace or sub wave iv (see wave count on chart). The retrace can go as low as the 90K support without overlapping sub wave i which would keep the bullish impulse in play. Also there is enough evidence here to suggest this structure is likely the first wave of the broader Wave 5 which can see a test of the 109K high over the coming months.
The current high (see arrow) shows signs of potential reversal at a location where such a pattern can be expected. The question is, when will it retrace and how far? It is anyone's guess. This is where you have to have the ability to adjust as the market provides new information. Until then the best we can do is assess loose probabilities and wait to see how the market aligns or not.
The adjustment process is two fold: evaluating support/resistance levels and assessing the RISK associated with a given scenario. For example, the illustration on the chart shows a retrace back to 90K, this or some variation of this scenario may or may not unfold. The key is to have levels identified in advance and then WAITING to see how the market behaves at such levels. Does it confirm our idea or not? In the case of Bitcoin now, the 95K area resistance is sticking and a reversal pattern has appeared which adheres to the retrace scenario, but how far it retraces is up to Bitcoin. We have to wait and see what type of bullish reversals appear and where they appear before RISK can be assessed for a swing trade on this time frame.
Markets that linger around levels can be very hard to trade if you are the type that forces trades or assert opinions. Slow grinds are especially tough to sit through which is why I always suggest evaluating smaller time frames while keeping this bigger picture in mind. There are plenty of smaller opportunities to capitalize on if you can recognize the support/resistance levels and trend structure on the smaller time frames without losing site of the bigger picture.
On this time frame for swing trades, I am not interested in the short side. I prefer to wait for the retrace (wave iv) measure to see how far it goes, WAIT for the reversal confirmation, then quantify the RISK from that point. IF this scenario appears, I would be anticipating a retest of the 100K resistance and expecting a greater chance of a breakout to a higher high (low to mid 100ks)? This can take at least two weeks to play out in my opinion. And if this scenario does not play out, then adjust to the whatever new information the market is presenting.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
The current high (see arrow) shows signs of potential reversal at a location where such a pattern can be expected. The question is, when will it retrace and how far? It is anyone's guess. This is where you have to have the ability to adjust as the market provides new information. Until then the best we can do is assess loose probabilities and wait to see how the market aligns or not.
The adjustment process is two fold: evaluating support/resistance levels and assessing the RISK associated with a given scenario. For example, the illustration on the chart shows a retrace back to 90K, this or some variation of this scenario may or may not unfold. The key is to have levels identified in advance and then WAITING to see how the market behaves at such levels. Does it confirm our idea or not? In the case of Bitcoin now, the 95K area resistance is sticking and a reversal pattern has appeared which adheres to the retrace scenario, but how far it retraces is up to Bitcoin. We have to wait and see what type of bullish reversals appear and where they appear before RISK can be assessed for a swing trade on this time frame.
Markets that linger around levels can be very hard to trade if you are the type that forces trades or assert opinions. Slow grinds are especially tough to sit through which is why I always suggest evaluating smaller time frames while keeping this bigger picture in mind. There are plenty of smaller opportunities to capitalize on if you can recognize the support/resistance levels and trend structure on the smaller time frames without losing site of the bigger picture.
On this time frame for swing trades, I am not interested in the short side. I prefer to wait for the retrace (wave iv) measure to see how far it goes, WAIT for the reversal confirmation, then quantify the RISK from that point. IF this scenario appears, I would be anticipating a retest of the 100K resistance and expecting a greater chance of a breakout to a higher high (low to mid 100ks)? This can take at least two weeks to play out in my opinion. And if this scenario does not play out, then adjust to the whatever new information the market is presenting.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
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Try Trade Scanner Pro for FREE: bit.ly/TSCPRO
LIVE Day Trades Mon, Wed, Fri 9:30 AM ET: youtube.com/@marcpmarkets.signals
Watch Full Trade Scanner Pro Tutorial: youtu.be/fdFLhLnqM9A
LIVE Day Trades Mon, Wed, Fri 9:30 AM ET: youtube.com/@marcpmarkets.signals
Watch Full Trade Scanner Pro Tutorial: youtu.be/fdFLhLnqM9A
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.