Updated

This volatility period is expected to last until April 18

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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)

I looked for cases where HA-Low > M-Signal on the 1W chart > M-Signal on the 1D chart in the entire range, but I could find similar movements, but I couldn't find anything like the current one.

I think it's difficult to understand the current movement.

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HA-Low and HA-High indicators are paired indicators that show contraction and expansion like Bollinger Bands.

Currently, the HA-Low and HA-High indicators are in a contracted state.

Therefore, if it rises near the HA-Low indicator and maintains the price, it is likely to lead to an attempt to break through the HA-High indicator.

However, since the HA-Low and HA-High indicators are defined and used as indicators that serve as the basis for trading strategies, the most important thing is whether there is support near the HA-Low indicator.

When it rises near the HA-Low indicator and shows support, if the M-Signal of the 1D chart > M-Signal of the 1W chart, that is, if it maintains a proper arrangement, the possibility of an upward trend will increase.

Therefore, what we need to do is check whether there is support near the HA-Low indicator.

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This volatility period is expected to last from April 13th to 18th.

At this time, the key is whether it can rise near 89294.25 and receive support.

If it touches the 89294.25 point and falls, we should see if the price can be maintained around the Fibonacci ratio 2.24 (83646.12) and rise along the rising trend line (2).

The maximum decline is expected to be around the left Fibonacci ratio 1.618 (76787.43) that the finger is pointing to.

If it fails to rise along the rising trend line (2), it is likely to fail to reverse the trend.

In any case, I think it is highly likely that the uptrend will be restricted because the StochRSI indicator is expected to enter the overbought zone.

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The Fill HA Close 1W-1M indicator is an indicator that displays the Close of the 1W and 1M charts of the Heikin Ashi chart.

This was created for the purpose of identifying the point where an uptrend or downtrend turns from a mid- to long-term perspective.

The HA Close on 1W 1M Mid indicator is an indicator that displays the middle value of the Close of the 1W and 1M charts of the Heikin Ashi chart.

I think you can tell why the HA Close on 1W 1M Mid indicator was added by looking at the price movement.

In other words, it was added because it can act as a support and resistance point.

However, it is recommended that these indicators be used for analyzing charts.

In my chart, the only indicators used to create trading strategies are the HA-Low and HA-High indicators.

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(30m chart)

If you bought (LONG) when the HA-Low indicator was created and showed support near it, you would be currently making a profit.

If the HA-Low indicator shows support and the price rises above the Trend Cloud (or M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator and maintains, there is a high possibility that an uptrend will begin.

Then, if it shows resistance near the HA-High indicator and falls below the Trend Cloud (or M-Signal on the 1D chart) indicator and maintains the price, there is a high possibility that a downtrend will begin.

Therefore, if you bought near the HA-Low indicator, the first sell period will occur when you meet the HA-High indicator.

This movement will be conducted within the HA-Low ~ HA-High range.

Most of the time, you will trade within the HA-Low ~ HA-High range.

Otherwise, there will be cases where the price falls below the HA-Low indicator or rises above the HA-High indicator and shows a trend.

At this time, you will either gain a bigger profit or incur a bigger loss.

Therefore, it is important to stabilize your psychological state by guarding the first split sell section.

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The body color of the candle indicates the status of the OBV indicator.

That is, dark green means that the OBV is located above the upper line.

Dark red means that the OBV is located below the lower line.

Therefore, when dark green or dark red appears, you can see that there is a high possibility that a change in trend will occur.

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Thank you for reading to the end.
I hope you have a successful transaction.

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- This is an explanation of the big picture.

I used TradingView's INDEX chart to check the entire section of BTC.

I rewrote the previous chart to update it by touching the Fibonacci ratio section of 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10).

(Previous BTCUSD 12M chart)

Looking at the big picture, it seems to have been following a pattern since 2015.

In other words, it is a pattern that maintains a 3-year bull market and faces a 1-year bear market.

Accordingly, the bull market is expected to continue until 2025.

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(Current BTCUSD 12M chart)

Based on the currently written Fibonacci ratio, it is displayed up to 3.618 (178910.15).

It is expected that it will not fall again below the Fibonacci ratio of 0.618 (44234.54).

(BTCUSDT 12M chart)

I think it is around 42283.58 when looking at the BTCUSDT chart.

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I will explain it again with the BTCUSD chart.

The Fibonacci ratio ranges marked in the light green boxes, 1.902 (101875.70) ~ 2 (106275.10) and 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83), are expected to be important support and resistance ranges.

In other words, it seems likely to act as a volume profile range.

Therefore, in order to break through this section upward, I think the point to watch is whether it can rise with support near the Fibonacci ratios of 1.618 (89126.41) and 2.618 (134018.28).

Therefore, the maximum rising section in 2025 is expected to be the 3 (151166.97) ~ 3.14 (157451.83) section.

To do that, we need to look at whether it can rise with support near 2.618 (134018.28).

If it falls after the bull market in 2025, we don't know how far it will fall, but considering the previous decline, we expect it to fall by about -60% to -70%.

So, if the decline starts near the Fibonacci ratio 3.14 (157451.83), it seems likely that it will fall to around Fibonacci 0.618 (44234.54).

I will explain more details when the downtrend starts.

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Note

#BTCUSDT.P 30m

If it falls this time, you should check if it is supported near the area indicated by the circle.

Therefore, we need to look at whether the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart is rising above or the Trend Cloud indicator is turning downward.

The important point in the first section is the OBV Line indicator point on the 1M chart.

The important point in the second section is the HA Close on 1W-1M Mid indicator point.

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The body color of the candle is displayed according to the position of the OBV.

The body color of the current candle is displayed in dark green, which means that it has risen above the upper line (high point line) of the OBV indicator.

There are several ways to interpret the OBV indicator, and among them, this is an interpretation that a trend is likely to be formed when it surpasses the previous high or low.

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This volatility period is expected to last until April 18.

Therefore, the key is whether the price can be maintained by rising above the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart after this volatility period.

The maximum rise is expected to be around 89294.25.

The reason is that the StochRSI indicator has entered the overbought zone.

If it goes down, you should check if it can be supported near the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart.

The maximum downtrend range is around 69000.0-73499.86.

However, I think it is highly likely to be supported near 76322.42-78595.86.

The reason is that the long-term upward trend line (5) is passing.

Note

#BTCUSDT 30m

We need to look at the direction in which the price breaks out of the HA-Low ~ HA-High section, that is, the 84371.4-85306.71 section.

For a trend to form, it is expected to start when it falls below the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart or rises above the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart.

Since the M-Signal indicators on the 1D and 1W charts are contracting, it seems likely to expand after this period of volatility.

Note

The StochRSI indicator appears to have created a peak in the overbought zone.

If it continues to decline and falls in the overbought zone, it may lead to further declines, so caution is required when trading.

The key is whether it can find support and rise near the left Fibonacci ratio of 2.24 (83646.12) ~ 84349.94.

Note

This volatility period is expected to last until April 18th.

Whether it will rise along the uptrend line (2) or fall along the downtrend line (4) and show a trend after this period of volatility is a point of interest.

However, even if it rises, it will eventually show a downward trend because the StochRSI indicator is in the overbought zone.

Accordingly, the key is whether the price can be maintained above the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart, near the left Fibonacci ratio 2.24 (83646.12).

Therefore, as I keep saying, the 89294.25 point or the 73499.86 point is expected to be the support and resistance points to break out of the current sideways movement.

Note

(BTC.D 1M chart)

(USDT.D 1M chart)

For the overall coin market to show an uptrend, USDT dominance must remain below 4.97 or show a downward trend.

If not, the coin market will eventually show a sideways or downward trend.

It often happens that altcoins rise when BTC shows a little fluctuation or a sideways trend.

It is better not to think that this movement leads to an altcoin bull market.

For an altcoin bull market, i.e. a market where you can make a profit no matter where you buy, BTC dominance must fall below 55.01 and show a downward trend.

Otherwise, there is a high possibility that a strange market where only BTC rises or a market where altcoins fall sharply will form.

Therefore, BTC dominance must fall below the 55.01-62.47 range.

If not, BTC dominance is likely to rise near the range indicated by the circle, so caution is required when trading altcoins.

Accordingly, what we need to do is buy when altcoins fall sharply and sell when we make a profit, thereby increasing the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to the profit.

In other words, sell below the purchase amount to increase the number of coins (tokens) corresponding to the profit.

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The funds in the coin market are on the rise.

That is, it seems that funds are flowing into the coin market through USDT or USDC.

Therefore, a trading strategy that can increase the number of coins (tokens) held is needed even when it shows an upward trend.

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