ES1! Recent Market Performance
ES Futures experienced a significant decline of 22.30% from the February 19, 2025 high of 6218.50 to the recent low of 4832 on Monday, April 7th, 2025. This drawdown included a sharp 16.30% sell-off, triggered by the announcement of reciprocal tariffs, marking a decline from the April 2, 2025 high to the April 7th low.
Since forming that low, ES Futures have rebounded impressively—rallying 18.48% into the May 2nd high, retracing well over 50% of the losses. Notably, price action has closely respected Fibonacci retracement levels, as illustrated in the accompanying chart.
Macro Fundamentals
There are several macroeconomic considerations at play:
• Quarterly GDP data appears skewed due to front-loaded imports, evident in the January and February import numbers.
• This week’s March trade balance, imports, and exports data for both the U.S. and China will be crucial. These figures will shed light on how escalating tariff tensions have influenced Q1 business activity.
• The key event this week is the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and FOMC press conference. Of particular interest will be how the Fed’s risk outlook has evolved in light of Trade War 2.0, along with updates to growth and inflation forecasts.
While the Fed is expected to hold rates steady, there are increasing calls from President Trump to cut rates. Although recent soft data has shown signs of deterioration, this has not yet translated into hard data. In fact, April’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report beat expectations, underscoring continued economic resilience.
Key Question: What Comes Next?
Will ES Futures continue to trend higher, reverse lower, or consolidate?
Key Technical Levels
• mCVAL: 5635
• Upper Neutral Zone : 5620 – 5585
• March 2025 Low: 5533.75
• Lower Neutral Zone : 5171.75 – 5150.75
Fibonacci Retracement Levels (2025 High to Low)
• 2025 High: 6218.50
• 0.786 Retracement: 5921.75
• 0.618 Retracement: 5688.75
• 0.5 Level (Mid-Range): 5525.25
• 2025 Low: 4832
Our View
We believe downside risks are currently minimized, barring a new market-moving development—such as a disruptive social media post. Q1 earnings have broadly reflected strength, reducing the probability of further downside in the near term.
Given the current backdrop:
• Positive news could act as a catalyst for higher prices.
• In the absence of significant newsflow, we expect consolidation, followed by a potential resumption of the upward trend.
Scenario 1
A pullback to either the blue support zone near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement confluence, or a deeper pullback towards the confluence of the 2025 mid-range and March 2025 lows, followed by a continuation higher.
Scenario 2
Seasonality supports consolidation. Historical index behavior at this time of year further aligns with the potential for sideways movement before the next leg higher.
EdgeClear
P: 773.832.8320 | TF: 844-TRADE20
Derivatives trading involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are opinions, not financial advice.
P: 773.832.8320 | TF: 844-TRADE20
Derivatives trading involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are opinions, not financial advice.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.