- Yesterday's candlestick closed as a bear bar near its low.
- In our previous report, we said the odds slightly favor the market to trade at least a little lower. Traders would to see if the bears could create a follow-through bear bar to confirm the breakout below the 4000 level. If they do, we may see a retest of the January low around the 3850-3800 area.
- The bears got a follow-through bear bar and the night session also traded lower and has tested near the 3860 area.
- The bears want a retest of the January low. They got what they wanted.
- They want a large second leg sideways to down with the first leg being the April 2 to April 9 low.
- They hope to get a strong breakout below the January low area to test the 3800 area.
- The bulls want a reversal from a wedge pattern (Mar 25, Apr 9, and Apr 21) and a lower low major trend reversal.
- The problem with the bull's case is that they couldn't create strong bull bars with follow-through buying.
- They see the current move as a sell vacuum and a bear leg within the trading range.
- If the market trades lower, they want a failed breakout below the 3850 area.
- They must create strong bull bars to show they are back in control.
- Exports for the first 20 days are up ITS: 11.89%, AmSpec: 18.5%.
- Production is slowly picking up, but not in a big way yet.
- Refineries' appetite to buy physical remains lukewarm with the recent sharp falling market.
- The market remains Always In Short.
- So far, the move down since April 1 is in a tight bear channel with strong bear bars. The selling pressure is stronger than the buying pressure (bull bars with no follow-through buying).
- The breakout below the April 16 low is strong with follow-through selling.
- Traders want to see if the bears can create a strong retest of the 3850-3800 area and close tomorrow as a strong bear bar near its low.
- Or will the candlestick close with a long tail below and above the middle of its range instead?
- If there is a climactic spike down, traders will see if there will be profit-taking activity after that (over the next several days).
- For now, odds slightly favor the market to trade at least a little lower.
- Traders will see if the 3800-50 area can act as support or if the market will break down below with strength.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.