Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bulls in full control, next target is the Globex to 22535 or 22586 on the daily chart. Volume is atrocious and we are in a global trade war but hey, let’s go for another ath I guess. This will crash down to 19000 and lower again, zero doubt in my mind.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 21000 - 23000
bull case: Bulls want 22535 or 22586 next. Above that there is no reason not to go for 24000. Nothing more to say about this tbh. Measured move from the lows to spike high is 24375 and yes, I think it’s beyond insane and yes I also think we could get there over next days.
Invalidation is below 21700.
bear case: Bears need prices below 21780. Simple as that. They are not doing anything right now but any decently bad news could get us there. If they print 21780, it only means something if they then close the Global gap to 21674. So far away and unlikely that we get a strong bear trend tomorrow. Market will probably need to range first before we could maybe sell again.
Invalidation is above 22600.
short term: Neutral. Having a hard time believing we can do another bull trend up tomorrow. I expect sideways into the weekend. Anything below 21800 is a bear surprise to me
medium-long term from 2024-03-16: Bear trend is ongoing but for now I still think 19500 and below is an amazing buy if you can hold for years. Things will have to turn really bad for this market to find acceptance below the bull trend line from the covid lows and right now this trade war is just front running. Markets were not priced for risk 3 weeks ago but this drop was too much too fast. My bearish targets for this year are met and with the current environment I will not call for lower prices than 19000. If the trade war turns real bad, yeah sure but for now it’s not.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying the bear trap 21900, betting on a higher low and that the big globex gap stays open. I traded it horribly and went long way too late but it was still enough to went green on the day.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.