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comment: Bears defended the breakout area and kept the market in a bear trend. Bulls tried to print a higher low with a decent bull reversal bar on Thursday. Now what? No idea. Oil below 60 is a big thing and staying below is somewhat low probability, given the past 6 years. The chart is still pretty bearish and if you want to be a bull and look at this, would you be thrilled to buy it at 58? I’m not sure. If you could hold below 53 and add lower as well, sure but as of now, bulls have not done enough to convice me this is a credible bottom.
current market cycle: trading range on monthly tf and bear trend on the daily
key levels: 54 - 65
bull case: Bulls want to keep Thursday the higher low and go up from here. Above 60 they are slightly favored to test 62/64 again but one could also draw another bear trend line from 71.66 to 63.9 from last Monday. So buying here is not favorable, no matter how you look at this chart. Only above 65 do bulls take control again and can test the next bigger bear trend line around 67.
Invalidation is below 54.
bear case: Bears kept the bounce around the breakout area from the W1 low. Now they need to make lower lows to confirm the acceleration of this bear trend. If they fail, this will become fuel for the bulls to test back up to either 67 or even the W2 high at 71.66. My line in the sand for the bears is a daily bull bar close above the daily 20ema. If bulls can get that, I think more bears will give up. Until then, bears are slightly favored, especially below 56.29 to test 54.48 again.
Invalidation is a daily close above 62 and for sure anything above 65.
short term: Neutral around 58. Below 56.29 I think we can do 54.48 or lower and above 62 I expect more upside for 64 or higher.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-04-27: This does look like another bear trap below 60, which was to be expected.
comment: Bears defended the breakout area and kept the market in a bear trend. Bulls tried to print a higher low with a decent bull reversal bar on Thursday. Now what? No idea. Oil below 60 is a big thing and staying below is somewhat low probability, given the past 6 years. The chart is still pretty bearish and if you want to be a bull and look at this, would you be thrilled to buy it at 58? I’m not sure. If you could hold below 53 and add lower as well, sure but as of now, bulls have not done enough to convice me this is a credible bottom.
current market cycle: trading range on monthly tf and bear trend on the daily
key levels: 54 - 65
bull case: Bulls want to keep Thursday the higher low and go up from here. Above 60 they are slightly favored to test 62/64 again but one could also draw another bear trend line from 71.66 to 63.9 from last Monday. So buying here is not favorable, no matter how you look at this chart. Only above 65 do bulls take control again and can test the next bigger bear trend line around 67.
Invalidation is below 54.
bear case: Bears kept the bounce around the breakout area from the W1 low. Now they need to make lower lows to confirm the acceleration of this bear trend. If they fail, this will become fuel for the bulls to test back up to either 67 or even the W2 high at 71.66. My line in the sand for the bears is a daily bull bar close above the daily 20ema. If bulls can get that, I think more bears will give up. Until then, bears are slightly favored, especially below 56.29 to test 54.48 again.
Invalidation is a daily close above 62 and for sure anything above 65.
short term: Neutral around 58. Below 56.29 I think we can do 54.48 or lower and above 62 I expect more upside for 64 or higher.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-04-27: This does look like another bear trap below 60, which was to be expected.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.