The US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average) is showing signs of a near-term bearish bias after breaking down from its rising daily channel and rejecting at the 44,700–45,100 supply zone, which coincides with a key former support level now acting as resistance. From a Smart Money Concepts perspective, this zone represents a recent order block where institutional selling pressure originated, making it a high-probability area to look for short entries if price retests with bearish confirmation, such as a daily bearish engulfing candle, a long rejection wick, or a clear lower-high formation. The first major downside target lies around 43,062, aligning with an intermediate demand zone, with an extended target toward 42,500, where deeper demand and prior consolidation converge. Stops should be placed above 45,150 to invalidate the bearish setup. Conversely, if price drops into the 42,800–43,000 demand zone and shows strong bullish reversal patterns, there is scope for a tactical countertrend long back toward 44,700–45,100, provided that geopolitical and macro conditions turn supportive. Fundamentally, the market remains caught between optimism over potential Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year and uncertainty stemming from the Fed’s cautious, data-dependent stance. Geopolitical risks—particularly heightened tensions in the Middle East and ongoing U.S.–China trade friction—are adding to volatility and could weigh on global risk sentiment, especially if oil prices spike and inflation concerns reemerge. These risks, combined with political uncertainty in the U.S., favor selling into rallies until there is a clear shift in macro direction. Key events to monitor include upcoming Fed communications, developments in Middle East conflicts, and any major U.S.–China trade headlines, all of which could either reinforce the short bias or trigger a sentiment-driven reversal. For now, the preferred approach is to sell into strength near the supply zone with defined risk, manage positions closely around the 43,000 demand area, and remain flexible to flip bias if price action and fundamentals align for a reversal.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.