Strategy Focus: Elliott Wave (Impulse) + AO Divergence + Fibonacci Extensions
🔍 1. Current Wave Structure (Elliott Wave Count)
You’ve identified:
A completed Wave 3 (impulse).
A completed or nearly completed Wave 4 correction.
Now projecting Wave 5 to complete the 5-wave impulse.
Substructure breakdown:
Wave 1-2: Clean impulse and pullback.
Wave 3: Strong rally with AO confirming higher momentum peaks.
Wave 4: Corrective move, breaking below the internal trendline (initial break), signaling potential end of correction.
Wave 5 (projected): Final push upward to complete the motive wave.
📊 2. Fibonacci Extension Targets
From Wave 0–3 and Wave 4 retracement:
2.618 extension: ~146.50
2.886 extension: ~146.78
4.236 extension: ~148.22 (Aggressive top for a possible extended fifth)
These are possible Wave 5 termination zones. Confluence with previous supply zones increases likelihood of reversal here.
📉 3. Momentum Confirmation — Awesome Oscillator (AO)
You're watching for:
Bearish Divergence on AO:
Wave 3 had a strong momentum peak.
Expect Wave 5 to push higher in price, but AO shows a lower high, signaling weakening momentum.
This aligns with classic Wave 5 behavior — price extension with momentum exhaustion.
🧭 4. Entry Strategy
Setup: Long entry at Wave 4 bottom.
Entry trigger: Initial break → minor pullback → bullish confirmation candle.
AO: Turns green after red bars = first sign of momentum recovery.
Optional confirmation: Break of short-term structure high (micro Wave 1 in Wave 5).
🎯 5. Take Profit Plan
Layered take-profit strategy based on Fibonacci and AO:
Target Zone Price Area Action
TP1 (Safe) ~1.618 (145.44–145.72) Take partial profit (30–50%)
TP2 (Primary) ~2.618 (146.50) Secure majority of profit (80%)
TP3 (Max/Stretch) ~4.236 (148.22) Optional final push / runner
🛡 6. Stop Loss Strategy
SL placement: Below Wave (4) low (~143.73 zone) or below structure break.
Use structure break or strong bearish engulfing as a reason to exit early if momentum fails.
⚠️ 7. Divergence & Reversal Monitoring
Once price enters your TP2–TP3 zone:
Look for:
AO divergence (price high vs. AO lower high).
Bearish engulfing candles or microstructure breaks.
Weak volume or extended wick rejection.
These may indicate Wave 5 completion and the start of Wave A (correction) or a reversal.
🔄 8. Next Play After Wave 5 Completes
If divergence confirms and reversal begins:
Map corrective structure (ABC).
Short from:
Break of rising wedge/trendline.
AO flips red + break of microstructure.
Target retracement:
0.382 to 0.618 retracement of the full Wave 1–5 impulse.
Target zone: ~144.80 – 143.70
✅ Summary: Strategic Flow
✅ Identify Wave 4 completion → Confirm via initial break + minor pullback.
✅ Long entry for Wave 5 → Enter on bullish candle or structural break.
✅ Track AO → Expect divergence at Wave 5 peak.
✅ Use Fibonacci for TP zones.
✅ Exit with confirmation of divergence and reversal signs.
✅ Option to reverse short post-Wave 5.
🔍 1. Current Wave Structure (Elliott Wave Count)
You’ve identified:
A completed Wave 3 (impulse).
A completed or nearly completed Wave 4 correction.
Now projecting Wave 5 to complete the 5-wave impulse.
Substructure breakdown:
Wave 1-2: Clean impulse and pullback.
Wave 3: Strong rally with AO confirming higher momentum peaks.
Wave 4: Corrective move, breaking below the internal trendline (initial break), signaling potential end of correction.
Wave 5 (projected): Final push upward to complete the motive wave.
📊 2. Fibonacci Extension Targets
From Wave 0–3 and Wave 4 retracement:
2.618 extension: ~146.50
2.886 extension: ~146.78
4.236 extension: ~148.22 (Aggressive top for a possible extended fifth)
These are possible Wave 5 termination zones. Confluence with previous supply zones increases likelihood of reversal here.
📉 3. Momentum Confirmation — Awesome Oscillator (AO)
You're watching for:
Bearish Divergence on AO:
Wave 3 had a strong momentum peak.
Expect Wave 5 to push higher in price, but AO shows a lower high, signaling weakening momentum.
This aligns with classic Wave 5 behavior — price extension with momentum exhaustion.
🧭 4. Entry Strategy
Setup: Long entry at Wave 4 bottom.
Entry trigger: Initial break → minor pullback → bullish confirmation candle.
AO: Turns green after red bars = first sign of momentum recovery.
Optional confirmation: Break of short-term structure high (micro Wave 1 in Wave 5).
🎯 5. Take Profit Plan
Layered take-profit strategy based on Fibonacci and AO:
Target Zone Price Area Action
TP1 (Safe) ~1.618 (145.44–145.72) Take partial profit (30–50%)
TP2 (Primary) ~2.618 (146.50) Secure majority of profit (80%)
TP3 (Max/Stretch) ~4.236 (148.22) Optional final push / runner
🛡 6. Stop Loss Strategy
SL placement: Below Wave (4) low (~143.73 zone) or below structure break.
Use structure break or strong bearish engulfing as a reason to exit early if momentum fails.
⚠️ 7. Divergence & Reversal Monitoring
Once price enters your TP2–TP3 zone:
Look for:
AO divergence (price high vs. AO lower high).
Bearish engulfing candles or microstructure breaks.
Weak volume or extended wick rejection.
These may indicate Wave 5 completion and the start of Wave A (correction) or a reversal.
🔄 8. Next Play After Wave 5 Completes
If divergence confirms and reversal begins:
Map corrective structure (ABC).
Short from:
Break of rising wedge/trendline.
AO flips red + break of microstructure.
Target retracement:
0.382 to 0.618 retracement of the full Wave 1–5 impulse.
Target zone: ~144.80 – 143.70
✅ Summary: Strategic Flow
✅ Identify Wave 4 completion → Confirm via initial break + minor pullback.
✅ Long entry for Wave 5 → Enter on bullish candle or structural break.
✅ Track AO → Expect divergence at Wave 5 peak.
✅ Use Fibonacci for TP zones.
✅ Exit with confirmation of divergence and reversal signs.
✅ Option to reverse short post-Wave 5.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.