USD/ZAR Poised for a Strong Breakout as Market Forces Align
1️⃣ Key Technical Insights from the Chart
A. Wyckoff Accumulation & Support Zone
The chart suggests Wyckoff accumulation with a Spring phase (H) and Test (H) in October 2024 at the 17.80 - 18.00 zone.
This Spring phase often signals a liquidity grab, where smart money accumulates before a trend reversal.
The current price level (18.06 - 18.12) is near the support line for SC Accumulation (D), reinforcing the idea of a bullish move from here.
💡 Macro Connection:
If US inflation surprises higher (March 11 CPI), interest rate expectations shift hawkish, and USD strengthens, reinforcing the Wyckoff accumulation phase leading to an upward breakout.
If global risk sentiment worsens, USD could also see inflows as a safe-haven, confirming the upward trajectory.
B. Harmonic Pattern & Fibonacci Levels
The Bearish Gartley/XABCD pattern has completed its correction phase at Point A (~18.06) and now shows signs of reversal.
The B point rejection near 1.238 Fibonacci extension indicates exhaustion of the bearish move.
The chart suggests a bullish continuation, targeting 19.26 by March 20, 2025, based on projected Fibonacci extensions.
💡 Macro Connection:
If US Nonfarm Payrolls (April 5) and Fed Meeting (March 19) reinforce strong USD fundamentals, the technical bullish move aligns with macroeconomic data.
A rise in bond yields above 4.5% on the 10-year Treasury could confirm the expected upside.
C. Elliott Wave Structure
The chart labels a completed 5-wave impulse up followed by an ABC corrective pattern, aligning with Elliott Wave theory.
The current structure suggests the start of a new Wave 3 rally, which is typically the strongest and most extended move.
Potential upside target: 19.26 (aligning with Wave 3 extension).
💡 Macro Connection:
If March and April macro data support continued USD strength, this Elliott Wave 3 scenario could materialize.
A higher inflation surprise could extend this move to 19.50+ in the next few months.
2️⃣ Key Fundamental Factors Supporting the Bullish Scenario
🔹 U.S. Inflation & Interest Rates (March 11, March 19)
Higher CPI would delay rate cuts, strengthening USD.
Fed’s March 19 statement will confirm if rates remain “higher for longer.”
🔹 U.S. Economic Growth (March 27, April 5)
If GDP data (March 27) comes in strong, it could fuel USD gains.
Nonfarm Payrolls (April 5) will determine the labor market’s strength.
🔹 South African Economic Risks (March-April)
Load shedding worsening → Weakens ZAR.
Political uncertainty ahead of elections → Triggers risk-off flows into USD.
3️⃣ Key Trading Levels & Strategy Based on the Chart
Key Level Technical Importance Bullish/Bearish
17.80 – 18.00 Strong support & Wyckoff Spring Bullish Bounce Zone
18.50 Minor resistance Bullish above this
18.66 – 18.88 Resistance cluster (AR accumulation) Key breakout level
19.26 Harmonic projection & Fib extension Final bullish target
Trade Idea
Buy near 18.06 - 18.12 if macro factors confirm USD strength.
Confirmation: Break above 18.50 → Bullish continuation.
Final target: 19.26 by March 20, 2025.
📌 Summary: Strong Confluence Between Technical & Macro Factors
✔ Wyckoff Accumulation & Harmonic Pattern suggest reversal from 18.06-18.12
✔ Elliott Wave 3 & Fibonacci targets align with 19.26 projection
✔ Upcoming U.S. macro data supports a strong USD outlook
✔ South African risks (Eskom, political uncertainty) favor ZAR weakness
A. Wyckoff Accumulation & Support Zone
The chart suggests Wyckoff accumulation with a Spring phase (H) and Test (H) in October 2024 at the 17.80 - 18.00 zone.
This Spring phase often signals a liquidity grab, where smart money accumulates before a trend reversal.
The current price level (18.06 - 18.12) is near the support line for SC Accumulation (D), reinforcing the idea of a bullish move from here.
💡 Macro Connection:
If US inflation surprises higher (March 11 CPI), interest rate expectations shift hawkish, and USD strengthens, reinforcing the Wyckoff accumulation phase leading to an upward breakout.
If global risk sentiment worsens, USD could also see inflows as a safe-haven, confirming the upward trajectory.
B. Harmonic Pattern & Fibonacci Levels
The Bearish Gartley/XABCD pattern has completed its correction phase at Point A (~18.06) and now shows signs of reversal.
The B point rejection near 1.238 Fibonacci extension indicates exhaustion of the bearish move.
The chart suggests a bullish continuation, targeting 19.26 by March 20, 2025, based on projected Fibonacci extensions.
💡 Macro Connection:
If US Nonfarm Payrolls (April 5) and Fed Meeting (March 19) reinforce strong USD fundamentals, the technical bullish move aligns with macroeconomic data.
A rise in bond yields above 4.5% on the 10-year Treasury could confirm the expected upside.
C. Elliott Wave Structure
The chart labels a completed 5-wave impulse up followed by an ABC corrective pattern, aligning with Elliott Wave theory.
The current structure suggests the start of a new Wave 3 rally, which is typically the strongest and most extended move.
Potential upside target: 19.26 (aligning with Wave 3 extension).
💡 Macro Connection:
If March and April macro data support continued USD strength, this Elliott Wave 3 scenario could materialize.
A higher inflation surprise could extend this move to 19.50+ in the next few months.
2️⃣ Key Fundamental Factors Supporting the Bullish Scenario
🔹 U.S. Inflation & Interest Rates (March 11, March 19)
Higher CPI would delay rate cuts, strengthening USD.
Fed’s March 19 statement will confirm if rates remain “higher for longer.”
🔹 U.S. Economic Growth (March 27, April 5)
If GDP data (March 27) comes in strong, it could fuel USD gains.
Nonfarm Payrolls (April 5) will determine the labor market’s strength.
🔹 South African Economic Risks (March-April)
Load shedding worsening → Weakens ZAR.
Political uncertainty ahead of elections → Triggers risk-off flows into USD.
3️⃣ Key Trading Levels & Strategy Based on the Chart
Key Level Technical Importance Bullish/Bearish
17.80 – 18.00 Strong support & Wyckoff Spring Bullish Bounce Zone
18.50 Minor resistance Bullish above this
18.66 – 18.88 Resistance cluster (AR accumulation) Key breakout level
19.26 Harmonic projection & Fib extension Final bullish target
Trade Idea
Buy near 18.06 - 18.12 if macro factors confirm USD strength.
Confirmation: Break above 18.50 → Bullish continuation.
Final target: 19.26 by March 20, 2025.
📌 Summary: Strong Confluence Between Technical & Macro Factors
✔ Wyckoff Accumulation & Harmonic Pattern suggest reversal from 18.06-18.12
✔ Elliott Wave 3 & Fibonacci targets align with 19.26 projection
✔ Upcoming U.S. macro data supports a strong USD outlook
✔ South African risks (Eskom, political uncertainty) favor ZAR weakness
Trade active
1️⃣ Key Technical Insights from the ChartA. Wyckoff Accumulation & Support Zone
The chart suggests Wyckoff accumulation with a Spring phase (H) and Test (H) in October 2024 at the 17.80 - 18.00 zone.
This Spring phase often signals a liquidity grab, where smart money accumulates before a trend reversal.
The current price level (18.06 - 18.12) is near the support line for SC Accumulation (D), reinforcing the idea of a bullish move from here.
Trade closed: target reached
saw it coming 
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.