Core driving factors
Surge in safe-haven demand
The continued escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the situation in the Middle East has driven funds to flow into gold for safe-haven, with an intraday increase of 2.27% (over $80), reaching a high of $3,328.
Policy uncertainties such as the 100% tariff imposed by the United States on imported films have further weakened market risk appetite.
Monetary policy expectations
The market is betting that the Federal Reserve will soon start a rate cut cycle, and the attractiveness of interest-free assets such as gold has increased. However, it is necessary to be vigilant that inflation resilience or economic data exceeding expectations may delay rate cuts and trigger a correction in gold prices.
Weak US dollar and central bank gold purchases
The US dollar has failed to gain sustained momentum from strong employment data to support gold. The global central bank gold purchases (especially in emerging markets) provide long-term support for gold prices.
Key technical signals
Daily level
Potential top risk: The long upper shadow line of the high and fall last Friday shows upper selling pressure, MACD dead cross and MA5 moving average downward, suggesting that the trend may weaken.
Support confirmation: The current price has returned to above $3,300, and it is necessary to observe whether it can stand firm at this psychological barrier.
4-hour level
Range oscillation: Short-term wide range oscillation between 3270 and 3350, MACD golden cross but needs to break through the 3330-3350 pressure zone to confirm the continuation of the bulls.
Key positions:
Resistance: 3330 (intraday high), 3350 (previous high and upper edge of the range).
Support: 3300 (psychological barrier), 3280-3290 (MA10 moving average and short-term bull defense line).
Operation strategy suggestions
Short-term bull opportunities
Entry conditions: Retracing to the 3280-3290 support area and the emergence of stabilization signals (such as 4-hour K-line closing positive or MACD bottom divergence).
Target: 3330→3350, after breaking through, it can look up to 3400.
Stop loss: below 3270 (the trend turns bearish if the range breaks).
Be cautious of high-altitude opportunities
Entry conditions: rebound to 3340-3350 under pressure (previous high of the daily line + upper edge of the range), combined with K-line reversal patterns (such as pin bar).
Target: 3300→3280.
Stop loss: above 3360 (to prevent sudden geopolitical risks from driving breakthroughs).
Breakthrough follow-up strategy
Break above 3350: light position chasing long, target 3400, stop loss 3340.
Break below 3270: turn to bearish, target 3230-3250, stop loss 3280.
Risk warning
Escalation of geopolitical conflicts: If the situation suddenly deteriorates (such as large-scale conflicts in the Middle East), the gold price may quickly break through 3350, and the stop loss needs to be adjusted in time.
Changes in Fed policy expectations: Focus on non-agricultural, CPI and other data. If it shows that the economy is overheated or inflation is sticky, it may suppress expectations of interest rate cuts and be bearish for gold.
Summary: Gold is bullish in the short term due to risk aversion, but there is a risk of a correction on the technical side. It is recommended to go long on pullbacks, and try to go high at key resistance levels with strict risk control. Conservative investors can wait for a breakout of 3350 or a fall below 3270 before following the trend.
Trade active
Analysis of the latest gold market:
① The three tracks of the daily Bollinger Bands are shrinking, which represents the range compression shock. The indicator MACD crosses and shrinks, and the dynamic indicator STO quickly repairs upward, which represents the current shock rebound trend. And the candle chart rushed up and stood firm on the MA5 and MA10 moving averages yesterday, so it will continue to rush up to test the upper track, but the upper track will continue to move down over time. Currently, the upper side is at 3461-3480. The support moving average and the middle track correspond to the 3309-3295-3274 line.
Currently, the daily short-term focus is on the high point of the previous gap at 3386.5, and the 3424 line.
② The 4-hour indicator is still running at a high level, representing the bulls of the price. Currently, the upper track and the MA5 moving average support correspond to the 3368-3344 line. According to the Fibonacci retracement line obtained from this round of decline, the upper side is currently at the 0.618 position 3385 line.
③ Both the hourly MACD and STO are at a relatively high level and can face a retracement at any time. The hourly line is currently supported at 3335-37, 3322-20 and 3310. Combined with the short-term cycle, the upper support is currently at 3362-3355 and 3372.
In summary:
The daily line will continue to rebound and test the upper track, which means it will definitely break the 3386 line; but today 3386 is also a point we need to pay attention to.
Because we see that the daily line will continue to rise, today's retracement will not exceed the morning low of 3323. Therefore, the retracement of 3272-78 will continue to be delayed, so the best point for long orders today is definitely 3335-37. Currently they are too far apart, so we need to find 3355 and 3362 as well as the current 3372 line.
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🥇Gold price trend analysis and forecast
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🥇Gold price trend analysis and forecast
💹Technical analysis (K-line patterns, trend lines, indicator systems)
✅Gold's safe-haven properties and asset allocation strategy
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
❤️Free gold trading signals:t.me/+YpPhxSuL0es5ZDE1
🥇Gold price trend analysis and forecast
💹Technical analysis (K-line patterns, trend lines, indicator systems)
✅Gold's safe-haven properties and asset allocation strategy
🥇Gold price trend analysis and forecast
💹Technical analysis (K-line patterns, trend lines, indicator systems)
✅Gold's safe-haven properties and asset allocation strategy
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.