1h
XRPBTC 1D ORB Nr4 Breakout StrategyStep #1: Wait until you can spot a bar that has its daily range smaller than the previous three days
The first rule requires you to have the patience until the Nr4 pattern develops on the chart. When we have a daily trading range that is narrowed than the previous trading ranges it means that the price is contracting.
Based on our backtesting results we have found out that there is a high probability of a trend move after you spot this type of contraction. This is kind of a general rule because the markets do move from periods of contractions to periods of expansion.
This is the reason why this short-term price pattern is so powerful.
Note* The 4th day doesn’t necessarily need to be an inside day, it only needs to have its daily range smaller than the previous 3 days.
Step #2: Mark the High and the Low of the 4th day and switch to the 1 hour time frame
Our trade is taken the next day after the Nr4 pattern showed up. In order to have a clear view of the short-term price action we need to switch our focus to the 1 hour time frame. Before you switch the time frames make sure you mark on your chart the high and the low of the 4th day.
The short-term pattern Nr4 satisfies all the requirements for a valid setup
Step #3: How to buy: Buy only if the breakout of the Nr4 high happens during the first 5 trading hours.
We use the Opening Range Breakout technique to time the market and have an effective trade entry. The ORB is even more profitable if it occurs after inside days that have a smaller trading range than the previous 3 days. Here is another strategy called simple yet profitable strategy.
Our trade doesn’t may not have an inside day, but nevertheless we want to buy only after we break above the Nr4 day high. Also, we want to make sure the breakout happens during the first five trading hours of the next day.
Trades based on the ORB – Nr4 pattern will show you a profit instantly.
Now, if the trade is not showing you a profit right away than your trade becomes more vulnerable. As a general rule, if after the first trading hour your trade is not in the green, you can safely close the trade at the market.
Of course, you can only do that if your stop loss hasn’t been triggered in the meantime.
Step #4: Place your protective Stop Loss below the Nr4 day low
You can hide your protective stop loss below the Nr4 day low. Alternatively, you can also place your stop loss below the current day low as this will give you a better risk to reward ratio.
The ORB - Nr4 pattern tends to precede strong trend day activity, so your stop loss should be rarely hit. Both of these patterns can be traded individually, but when combined they tend to produce even more powerful trades.
Step #5: Take profit at the close of the first 1-hour bearish candle
Our take profit strategy is fairly easy and it’s slightly modified from the original strategy highlighted in the “Day Trading with Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout” book written by Toby Crabel.
Even though the ORB pattern tends to lead to trend trading days we’re more conservative and want to quickly take profits. So as soon as the first bearish candle shows up we close the trade and enjoy our daytrade profits.
Alternatively, you can keep the trade open until the end of the day if you want to extrapolate more profits from the cryptocurrency market.
Note** the above was an example of a BUY trade using our Dogecoin cryptocurrency strategy. Use the same rules for a SELL trade – but in reverse.
CAN A MA HELP YOU TO DETERMINE IF PRICE CONTINUES OR REVERSESWill Price Continue or Reverse
Possible Expectation of Price and a Moving Average
If less than 30 bars since price has been on the opposite
side of MA - expect range behavior not continuation
If more than 30 bars expect price to continue in 1 direction
ETHUSD 1H DESCENDING TRIANGLE CHART PATTERNThe descending triangle pattern is a continuation chart pattern that develops in the middle of a downtrend. However, in some instances this can play as a descending triangle reversal, also known as the bullish descending triangle pattern.
Note: The more a support level is tested the weaker it becomes.
Additionally, the breakout candle must also produce a close below the flat support level for a valid trade setup.
XRPUSD 1H STE BAR COLOR BULLISH CONTINUATION TRADEPrice had a previous bullish trend
Price took a break with a bearish pullback
STE Pulse bars showed a dark green color during this pullback
STE Pulse bars came to the zwero line which is a decision point for price
Price could continue it bearish move
Then the STE bars would cross below the zero line and become a bright red color
OR
Price could bounce off the zero line up
Bullish continuation would make the STE bars a bright green color
Buy Take Profit would be a re-test of previous high
Find your own SL
GBPAUD POSSIBLE long trade You can see a clear divergence in the price that could represent a bullish impulse, specially considering the strong support/resistance zone that we can see that the market could restest as well.
This is a 1:3 approximately trade. Remember you always have to take care of your money. We never have clear how much we can win but we can have clear how much we are going to lose in a trade if we fail :)
USDJPY SHORT SET UPHi guys, heres a short set up on UJ.
As you can see, price is respecting the 111.40-111.50 level. This level has held firm in the past as a previous resistance and it is also matching up with my fibonacci reversal level of 78%. Not only have we got these the 2 confirmations, our trendline is matching up nicely with the prospect of a third bounce, which I believe to be the highest probability of a continuation of the trend.
Price has began to consolidate at this level and we have seen a number of 4h and 1h wick rejections of 111.30, however a break and close below the box and this level would give me a good confirmation that price may be set to continue to the downside and a short entry will executed.
In terms of my target on the trade, id be looking at the monthly support at 110.00, a 130 pip short trade set up.
My bias on the pair is short over the coming week, however a higher time frame break of the 111.50 level will invalidate this set up and I would take a back seat on this pair.
Just an idea.
TRADING PULLBACKS WITH KELTNER CHANNELTrading Pullbacks with Keltner Channel
Trading pullbacks successfully can only be done in the presence of a strong trend. Using the Keltner channel indicator we can study how the price behaves around the upper and lower envelopes to gauge the strength of the trend.
As you already learned when the price hugs one of the two bands and crawls along the band, we have a case for a strong trending market.
In the chart below we’ve highlighted small retracements while the price hugs the upper Keltner band. Notice that the price retrace to the area around the 20-EMA. It won’t give you an exact price, but a price zone from where the price can potentially bounce and the bullish trend can resume.
This remains a good way to measure pullbacks in price. Successful trading doesn’t require catching the exact turning point.
For a better timing of our trades we can use the Stochastic RSI indicator in combination with the Keltner indicator for more confluence.
The trade trigger is simply to follow with this Keltner Channel pullback strategy. Pull the trigger when the price retraces to the middle band and the stochastic indicator develops a crossover from an oversold territory.
ETHUSD 1H CUP & HANDLE TRADING STRATEGYStep #1: Identify a downtrend and a rounded retracement into that downtrend (The Cup)
We’re breaking down the Cup and Handle trading strategy into several steps. The first step is to identify an downtrend and a rounded retracement into that bearish trend. That rounded bottom is the first component of the Cup and Handle pattern.
The strength and the longevity of the prevailing trend is important as it will determine the success of the trade. How deep the rounded bottom goes will also influence our potential profit.
So far, so good.
Now we move to the second component of the Cup and Handle pattern and the second step of the Cup and Handle trading strategy.
Step #2: Draw the second component of the Cup and Handle pattern – The Handle
You can start drawing the handle once the cup component is finished.
Now, the cup component doesn’t necessarily need to end exactly at the same price where it started, but it needs to be near that price zone, or price target. Once you see the price moving away from the cup in a tight range you can start looking to draw the handle.
Step #3: Entry 1 at the Handle breakout and Entry 2 at the first Cup peak breakout
We’re going to implement an unorthodox entry method and split our trade into two trades as follows:
First sell entry on the Handle breakout, the lower line (resistance) that defines the Handle structure is our trigger line of the first sell order.
Second sell entry on the breakout of the initial peak from where we started drawing the cup.
Step #4: Take Profit equals the same distance in price as measured from the initial Cup peak to the bottom of the cup
The ideal profit target for the Cup and Handle trading strategy would be equal to the same distance in price as measured from the initial Cup peak to the bottom of the Cup.
The Cup and Handle pattern target maximizes the potential profit and it gives us the chance to capture the entire trend.
You are simply projecting the same distance in price to the upside using as a starting point the initial Cup peak.
Step #5: Place initial SL above the rounded bottom. After the second entry is triggered move both SL above the Handle swing low.
Since we’re splitting our trade into two trades, we’re going to have two protective stop loss. The initial stop loss is placed just above the round bottom.
Since at this stage the Cup and Handle pattern is not yet confirmed we need to give it more space, that’s why we’ve chosen to place the SL aabove the round bottom.
Once we enter our second sell order we can now safely move the SL for both positions above the Handle swing low.
S&P 500 Short Setup and potential PlayoutOANDA:SPX500USD
So SPX broke through BTL 1 of our Channel with a bigger 1H Bearish Candle. The SMA 100 & SMA 200 are starting to flat out but weren't crossed yet.
When that move to the Downside continues, I would wait for a little Pullback on the 1H and then, in Confirmation with maybe the 4H, open a Short
Position with the Target 2638.36!
I did some Fib and SUP stuff in there, because Fib is pretty reliable on the 1H, so this `COULD BE` a `POSSIBLE PLAYOUT`for that Short Position.
Pretty simple. Just look a little bit to the left (the past) and you will see that my Analysis could actually work.
Be patient and look out for those Setups, we will see! But SHORT move coming soon for sure.
KNOW WHAT TO LOOK FOR IN A RANGE PATTERNThe market is working a range pattern the majority
of the time which is good news if you know what to look for.
Range patterns are full of information that will help you anticipate what comes next, so you can trade. Here are 3 examples that will make you chart smarter!
The first chart is my personal favorite range pattern. When you see a well established range, watch for price to "overshoot" your expected high or low. When that happens, get ready! As soon as it goes past the expected high or low, place pending orders to sell from the top or buy from the bottom. If price comes back to the range, it will come back fast!
The 2nd chart is an example of past performance predicting future price movement. During a range pattern, look back 15 bars from the middle of the range, and anticipate the market moving that far in the opposite direction. In this example, the solid arrow is predictive of the dashed arrow.
The last chart is an example of how the typical slow or no momentum you would expect is happening in the middle third, shaded in orange. To and from the outer edges of the range, momentum shows up.
TIPS FOR RANGE TRADINGRanges contain elements of certainty which are rare in a speculative industry.
With previously established highs and lows, you can anticipate where the market is likely to hold, change direction or stop all together.
5 interesting facts about range patterns when charting price action.
1 - The range pattern is good for traders who are terrible at cutting their losses. The nature of a range is to not make progress in one direction, so this is the best pattern to trade if you don’t like taking your stops. If the market moves against your open trade during a range, your patience may be rewarded, because chances are price will swing back in your direction.
2 - Ranges contain areas where you can expect momentum. That sounds like a contradiction, right? It's not. You can expect the typical slow market condition in a range, but only in the middle third of the range space. Count on momentum showing up when it runs to and from the outer edges of the range.
3 - Past performance predicts future movement. You’ve heard it - you’ve probably even said it - “Past performance is no guarantee of future results.” However, when it comes to range patterns, I keep track of where price has been in the past 15 bars. Do the math because that’s exactly how far you can expect price to move in the opposite direction in the next 15 bars.
4 - After a trend, it only takes 7 bars of time in the range pattern to tell me which direction is coming next. Add the 50 simple moving average to your chart. If price crosses that line and stays below it for more than 7 bars, it’s probably not going to return to the trend any time soon.
5 - The best range trades happen when your expected high or low is suddenly obliterated. Huh? It's true, and this is my secret weapon in trading. If price breaks out of a well established range pattern, immediately place pending orders to trade in the opposite direction. If price fails the breakout (which it usually does), it comes barreling back through the range pattern, and those trades move into profit very quickly.
NZDJPY 1D/1H ASCENDING TRIANGLE TRADESPrice is in an ascending triangle chart pattern
There were 4 failed Bullish breakout attempts of the triangle top
Price is falling to triangle bottom trendline
1H Short trade
Sell Stop @ 76.20
Sell TP at bottom triangle trendline
There will be a decision point at the bottom triangle trendline
Long trade
Price will rise up to the top triangle trendline
Bullish breakout of top trendline
Enter on a 15m break-hook-go chart pattern
1st Buy TP @ 77.42
2nd Buy TP @ 78.17
3rd Buy TP @ 78.68
Short trade
Price will have a Bearish breakout of the bottom triangle trendline
Enter on a 15m break-hook-go chart pattern
1st Sell TP @ 73.53
2nd Sell TP @ 72.04
Find your SL