Mexican Peso Faces Potential Short-Term PressureThe Mexican Peso is approaching a significant supply area, a confluence of factors that suggests a potential short-term bearish trend. Daily retail trader positions show a notable concentration of long positions, while seasonal patterns hint at a shift in market sentiment. This combination creates an environment ripe for a short position on futures or a long position in CFDs, if the bearish bias strengthens.
This convergence of supply, bullish retail sentiment, and seasonal influence raises the possibility of a corrective move in the Mexican Peso. The sustained presence of long positions in the daily market could be vulnerable to a price reversal, particularly as seasonal factors typically favor a weaker Peso during this period. While a short position on the future market presents the opportunity for profit on any price decline, astute investors should closely monitor the market's reaction to key economic releases for confirmation of the short-term bearish bias.
Caveat: This analysis is based on current market conditions and should not be considered financial advice. Further technical analysis and fundamental assessments are recommended before making any trading decisions.
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COT Analysis - Currencies - DXY 6E & 6M SET UP FOR TRADES!COT analysis shows that the Euro and Mexican peso are nicely setup for longs upon a confirmation of bullish trend change on the daily. The only "fly in the ointment" here is that the DXY commercial positioning is still very bullish, which is a bit of a mixed signal. Ideally, we like to see the DXY & majors give opposing signals simultaneously.
That being said, 6E & 6M are nicely setup for longs upon a confirmed daily bullish trend change.
Have a good week.
COT Analysis - CurrenciesThis week is a quiet week for COT setup markets.
In this video I overview how the currency setups which I have identified over the last few weeks (Long USD, Short JPY, AUD, CAD, EUR) have played out and are well underway.
As of right now, the only currency that is setup for a trade is the Mexican Peso. This video reviews the combination of factors which have made this market setup for longs. To be clear, this does not mean long now. But this means that, if we get an entry trigger on the daily, we are authorized to long this market.
Have a great weekend.
Long on Mexican Pesos: Technical Indicators and Market AnalysisThe Mexican Peso has recently reached a Demand area that we have been monitoring for some time, and it has shown a strong rebound from this level. By examining technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic, we can observe that the Peso is currently in an oversold condition, suggesting a potential upward movement.
Furthermore, by analyzing the Commitment of Traders (COT) data, we see additional support for a bullish outlook. The seasonality trends of the Mexican Peso also align with this perspective, indicating that now is an opportune time to consider a long position.
Given these technical and seasonal indicators, we have decided to open a long position on this futures contract. The confluence of the oversold technical indicators, supportive COT data, and favorable seasonal trends provides a strong foundation for our bullish stance on the Mexican Peso.
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