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BTC/USD - SHORT SZENARIOS - ANALYSE – DThe "BTC/USD" is in a downtrend since Nov – 2021, and it is obvious that we can expect a further - final sell-off if necessary. -> The coupling of the traditional markets to the BTC is very high because of the institutional investors (example: S&P500 falls = BTC falls). -> In which key areas we can expect a local bottom, I will analyze in more detail in today's post. -> For this, we will look at the "BTC/USD" from the daily view and integrate elements of the daily, weekly and monthly chart. table of contents - 1st part = EXPLANATION - indicators used + levels. - 2nd part = SCENARIOS - pro + con breakdown - 3rd part = CONCLUSION FIRST PART 1. FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT . For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the movement, which started in - March/2020 - and ended in - Nov/2021 -. -> 0.786 FIB = 17,738.75 USD | Completed -> 0.88 FIB = 11,608.27 USD | Pending processing > As "BLUE + dotted" lines - drawn in the chart. 2. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT | For this Fibonacci retracement, we take the movement, which started in - Dec/2018 - and ended in - Nov/2021 -. -> 0.786 FIB = 17,246.82 USD | Pending processing -> 0.88 FIB = 11,057.51 USD | Pending processing > As "BLUE" lines - drawn in the chart. 3. | FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT | For this Fibonacci retracement we take the movement, which started in - May/2022 - and ended in - Aug/2022 -. -> 1.618 FIB = 12,931.80 USD | Pending processing > As "orange" lines - drawn in the chart. 4. DEMAND ZONES | The demand zones formed at the beginning of the upward movement, thus they were created and in - June-Oct/2020. -> WEEK ZONE | 1 | = 9,825.00 – 11,720.01 USD | Pending processing -> WEEK ZONE | 2 | = 8,833.00 – 9,345.00 USD | Pending processing -> DAY ZONE | 1 | = 9,825.00 – 10,681.87 USD | Pending processing -> DAY ZONE | 2 | = 9,047.25 – 9,221.52 USD | Pending processing > As "GREY" areas - drawn in the chart. 5. | POINT OF INTEREST | The points of psychological interest, were created the first time Nov - 2017 - and showed some reactions since then. -> POI | 1 | = 16.000 USD | Pending processing -> POI | 2 | = 14.000 USD | Pending processing -> POI | 3 | = 12.000 USD | Pending processing -> POI | 4 | = 10.000 USD | Pending processing | POI should be used as support in the upcoming situation. | POI is used as ZONE -> no point exact support. > As "Orange" line - drawn in the chart. SECOND PART . As soon as the price reaches the broken down levels, we can expect a reaction from the market, which depends on the "weighting" of each level. 1st | SCENARIO | BOTTOM - at around 16,000-17,250 USD (Unlikely). What speaks in favor of: - "BREAK OF THE SIDEWAYS TREND CHANNEL" - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) + (2) | 0.786 + 0.786 FIB" - "LIQUIDITY HUNT + this idea must be supported by the DXY + S&P500! = DXY rises + S&P500 falls What is the argument against: - "POINT OF INTEREST (1-4) - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) + (2) | 0.88 +0.88 FIB" - "USD (DXY)" = further depreciation - "S&P500" = recovery and no market crash 2. | SCENARIO | BOTTOM - at approx. 11,000-13,000 USD (Very likely) What speaks for this: - "FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT (1) + (2) | 0.88 +0.88 FIB" - "POINT OF INTEREST (2-3) - "SUPPLY ZONES | D1 (1) + W1 (1)" - downtrend lines serve as support + this idea must be supported by the DXY + S&P500! = DXY rises + S&P500 falls What is the argument against: - "POINT OF INTEREST = Existing liquidity cascade (4). - "SUPPLY ZONE" = D1 (2) + W1 (2)" - "USD (DXY)" = further appreciation. CONCLUSION . At the moment, it is impossible to say what the exact scenario for "BTC/USD" will be. The correlation relevant for us to make decisions is as follows: - DXY (USD) is currently like a kind of indicator of fear in the market, with which it controls the S&P500. - The S&P500 is currently at a very relevant level (3,600 points), if this breaks sustainably (with confirmation), we will see a strong sell-off in all markets - market crash! - Should this market crash occur, then this will also have a significant impact on BTC. (Liquidation cascades of stop loss orders and fear from retail market participants.) = The marked levels should have large order blocks ready, which will consume this sharp sell-off within a short period of time . -> As soon as the BOTTOM formation crystallizes, I will upload a detailed LONG execution. -> Feel free to discuss it in the comments and share our perspectives, I'd be "burning" to hear your take on the whole thing. If this idea and explanation has added value to you, I would be very happy to see a review of it . Thank you and a successful trading! The following image should show you where the support line comes from:
Short
by ZielIstDieAutarkie
3
AUD/JPY Short PositionHere is my analysis for a potential short position I have taken on AUD/JPY. The original analysis was spotted on the M15 chart showing a large RSI divergence, However the main analysis was done on H1 graph. My Reasoning for this short is: - Large RSI divergence on both M15 and H1 graph. - Large Supply zone hit where a lot of retracements have been before. - Strong start rejection in resistance zone. - MACD crossover forming. - Lower volume on MACD too. I believe this will be a larger swing position with 2 positions personally taken both risking 1% combined. Position 1: Entry - 91.135 TP - 90.112 SL - 91.650 Position 2: Entry - 91.134 TP - 89.735 SL - 91.854 Both positions holding a 2.00 roughly RR ratio with risking 1% of capital combined.
Short
by gonzalezf07032003
1