M2 Money supply Vs BTCM2 Money supply Vs BTC
Heres the M2 money supply plotted against BTC. As you can see, as US liquidity increases, risk on assets such as BTC increase due to increased liquidity going into risk on assets and markets.
M2 Money supply starting to increase again here and curve up after 942 days of sideways/correctionary movement.
As M2 supply increases, im anticipating BTC to continue to push into new ATHs with the altcoin market.
Bitcoinprediction
The Bitcoin Dilemma: To Go Long or Not to Go Long?Let me share my observations on Bitcoin, starting with the obvious.
On the 4-hour chart, any trader with more than a week of experience can see that Bitcoin is moving in a widening descending channel. To put it simply, the price action is forming a "trail" that fits perfectly within this channel. Over the past few days, prices have been "testing" the $60,500-$60,000 level, which suggests a potential move lower, aligning with the direction of the descending channel. Ok, fine.
Meanwhile, on the CME and other major crypto exchanges, options with strike prices of $80,000 and $100,000 are being traded a lot with an expiration date in December 2024. That's a far cry from the current price, and it's anyone's guess what the future holds. Will we see a "tothemoon" or a multi-month bottom?
Personally, I'm "sitting on the fence" and won't be going long until I see some confirmation on the chart.
Will BTC Reach $54k Again!Hello traders,
Here's an update on BTC in 8-hour timeframe.
After reaching a high of $66.5k, BTC saw a 10% rejection. Currently, it is trading below the 100 EMA, and unless BTC breaks and closes above the 100 EMA, the bearish trend will likely continue.
It will be interesting to see whether BTC makes a comeback or rejects further down to $54k.
The RSI is nearing the oversold zone, which could signal a rebound, but let’s remain cautious. As seen in the chart, the RSI was previously near the oversold zone, leading to a rebound, but it eventually dropped by 14%.
The only way this drop will be invalidated is if BTC breaks above the 100 EMA. Let’s hope for the best and stay cautious.
Not financial advice.
BTC Wyckoff accumulation Schematic 2 - Moving as planned!BTC Update:
So since my analysis on BTC, price has delivered beautifully and exactly as anticipated from the forecast, having took the internal highs at FWB:65K and into HTF supply from the prior weekly bearish leg and we had the bearish reaction from this area.
Price has pushed back into the daily range with a lovely bearish reaction, further fuelled by the FUD news, timed pretty much perfectly to the bearish momentum and downturn in the market as we sit in this accumulation range. However im not worried regarding the news as i see it as FUD in line with my wyckoff understanding.
In line with my USDT.D update also posted recently, im still seeing a little downside risk in BTC and im expecting it to continue bearish and push down deeper into the levels marked up between GETTEX:59K - $52K. This level is the discount of the accumulation range and the HTF weekly range and aligns with the weekly demand range, 3D demand range and daily demand range, alongside resting SSL to target at $57,500 in this area, making a prime reversal level and key level imo.
As im viewing this as a reaccumulation range, following wyckoff schematic 2 as shown, im looking at price to form a last point of support in this area and a bullish reversal to form and expand out of it as shown. This is my main idea and thesis so far as we continue to range here after the capitulation event. Now my idea could get invalidated at a later time but right now its aligning pretty perfectly alongside what im seeing on USDT.D in its distribution range and price doesn't have to take the lows again on BTC so don't be fooled into thinking it does as right now its not suggesting this and im not looking for it.
Patience is needed here as we need more price action to form to work with, but overall its looking great, i aint worried and my focus remains on the range.
As a result, i expect alts to continue to bleed and underperform, especially as BTC.D continues to push up into HTF supply and ETH is looking rather weak here with potential to take its lows again, which could end up being SMT divergence between ETH and BTC as it forms its bottom here over the coming weeks.
With Q4 just starting, im looking for the next expansion phase in the market to begin within this quarter, alongside the US elections next month which is typically a bullish event in the market! Its all aligning in my opinion for a bullish Q4 and Q1 of 2025, we just need to have patience here and not get shaken out in this range.
In addition to this China has started quantitive easing and their market has went on a massive bullish run the last week, with the US also easing up on interest rates cutting them by half a point, leaving investors able to acquire debt at a cheaper rate which typically fuels further bullish momentum in the market, as the M2 money supply increases too which i will delve into in another post.
Essentially as global money supply increases, money markets tend to also increase and ill break down this relationship in some other charts to show you just how correlated this is as its very interesting stuff.
The technicals are aligning with the macros and i think its shaping up to be a great Q4 and Q1 of 2025!
Dont be fooled by the first bearish tones to Q4, think of the monthly candle in terms of the PO3 Power of three formation, we have started the new monthly candle, forming the downside wick before the true expansion to the upside begins!
#BITCOIN is fine, Don't panic!Bitcoin continues to trade within a descending channel, with the current weekly candle showing a 7.17% drop, rejecting near the $65,000 resistance level.
The price has entered a Weekly Fair Value Gap (FVG) between $60,000 and $62,500, where we might see some buying support.
(FVG sare levels of liquidity gaps which the MMs eventually take before continuing the uptrend)
Explained more in my previous BTC/USDT Chart
However, a break below the invalidation level at $57,466.09 could lead to further downside towards the channel support.
Bulls need to HOLD the FVG to initiate a bullish breakout.
Invalidation Level:
An invalidation point is marked around $57,466.09. If the price breaks below this level, the bullish scenario becomes invalid, and further downside action is likely to follow.
There's also 200 MA support around the $59.8k level.
This is an important level to keep an eye on!
I think we will see a relief soon!
NOTE:-
Stop panicking! When the market pumps, everyone wants a dip, but when the dip comes, fear takes over. This is often a sign you're taking on more risk than you can afford.
Stay calm and focus on Altcoins, which often bounce hard after corrections. While Crypto Twitter was expecting a green October, the market makers threw in a surprise to start the month.
Expect a few days of downtrend and consolidation, followed by daily green candles.
That’s my view, not financial advice!
Let me know your thoughts in the comment section and do hit the like button sp it reaches more souls who need to read this!
Thank you
#PEACE
BTCUSD I 1 hr double bottom formation and long opportunityWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** BTCUSD Analysis - Listen to video!
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Bitcoin Market Outlook Elliot Wave Theory (W40/2024) // AlgoFyre🔶 Short-Term Outlook (Next Few Weeks to Months) - Bullish Scenario
🟢 In the bullish case, Bitcoin is currently in the third wave of an Elliot Wave structure, which typically signals a strong upward movement. Over the next few weeks, this wave could drive Bitcoin’s price to targets between $120k and $140k, based on Fibonacci extensions.
🟢 For this scenario to play out, Bitcoin needs to break through key resistance levels and trendlines. If it does, we could see a significant and rapid rally toward the projected price targets.
🟢 In this scenario, even if Bitcoin encounters minor pullbacks or consolidations, the overall momentum would remain upward. Any brief corrections would likely be seen as opportunities for further upward moves, with Bitcoin maintaining its bullish structure.
🔶 Short-Term Outlook (Next Few Weeks to Months) - Bearish Scenario
🔴 In the bearish scenario, Bitcoin could fail to break the critical resistance levels and trendlines. If Bitcoin shows weakness or rejects off these key areas, we may see a period of consolidation or a pullback instead of a rally.
🔴 In this case, Bitcoin could begin to test lower support levels, which might result in a short-term correction. If the support holds, Bitcoin could continue to range-bound between key levels, but if it breaks down, the price could head lower before finding new support.
🔴 A short-term correction could see Bitcoin retest previous lows or critical support areas. While this wouldn’t necessarily lead to a long-term bearish trend, it would delay the upward movement for the coming weeks.
🔶 Key Takeaway
In the bullish scenario, Bitcoin could rally to $120k to $140k over the next few weeks to months if it breaks key resistance levels. In the bearish scenario, failure to break resistance could lead to a consolidation or short-term pullback as the price tests lower support levels before making any significant upward moves. The next few weeks will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin follows through on its bullish momentum or takes a step back.
Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) Short Trade Setup: Key Levels and TargetsThis chart shows a short trade setup for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) with clearly marked Entry, Stop Loss (SL), and multiple Take Profit (TP) levels by using the Risological swing trading indicator.
Here’s an analysis of the current situation:
Entry: The short trade entry was triggered at 64354.7 USDT.
Stop Loss (SL): The stop loss is placed at 65437.3 USDT, which is slightly above the resistance level to limit potential losses if the price reverses upward.
Take Profit (TP) Levels:
TP1: The first target is 63016.5 USDT.
TP2: The second target is 60851.1 USDT, and the price has already hit this level.
TP3: The third target is set at 58685.8 USDT.
TP4: The final target is 57347.6 USDT.
Current Price Action:
After entry, Bitcoin has experienced a downward move as expected, already hitting TP2.
The market is showing some consolidation, which may indicate a temporary pause before continuing its downward momentum.
Trade Management :
If the price breaks below TP2 again, the short trade could potentially hit TP3 and TP4, providing an opportunity for more significant gains.
If there’s a reversal, traders should be cautious and manage the trade accordingly, potentially moving the stop loss to breakeven to lock in profits.
This short setup appears to be progressing well, and if the bearish momentum continues, it may hit the lower take profit levels soon.
Bitcoin Head and Shoulders PatternInversed Bitcoin chart to showcase this thesis. Not much to this idea but I would recommend saving this chart for the trendlines and levels that I have highlighted. Happy trading and happy charting my friends. We are almost there.
Here are my price predictions:
End of September - $58,000~61,000
End of October - $66,000~69,000
End of Year - $80,000~100,000
BTC & Crypto Market Forecast. 4 Yr Cycle Top and Elliot WavesIn this video, I've pulled up an old chart from 2022 I've had on my desktop (not my original chart) that shows potential Waves 3-5 for Bitcion and the 4 year cycle high time targets.
In my new chart, I've re-created this showing that we're ahead of schedule from the dark study, and the 4 year past cycle time targets for reaching ATH around 539 days after the halving.
But as we know, we hit ATH's this cycle already BEFORE the halving, so it's unclear how that's going to affect the next phase. It would certainly make sense, that everybody (Big money, smart money and even us dumb money retail traders) will be looking to 'go all in' early...
But also to GET OUT early.
Remember, it's a game of musical chairs.. and the music is speeding up.
For these reasons, and other global economic and political influences...
I think we could STILL see a left-translated cycle and a parabolic bull rally going into Dec of this year... Unsure if that would be THE Top, but I'd be looking for some profit taking and correction there, which most likely WILL LOOK like the top. But may not actually be.
We may still see the 4 year cycle play out, and continue to push higher until October '25 as the original study suggests (539 days post-halving).
On the one hand, some are suggesting a deflationary market bust in early 2025 for both the stock market and Bitcoin / crypto.
We'll have to wait and see.
But it does look like we're experiencing the Wave 4 pullback, and poised to beging the final Wave 5 phase of the bull-run.
What do you think?
Would appreciate any likes, comments, or compliments below. Cheer always welcome!
To the moon 🚀
UPTOBER HERE WE COME!Dear Traders and CryptoLovers!
October is here, and that means one thing—Uptober!
Historically, October has been a bullish month for crypto, and with signs of a Bullish Harami forming, we could be gearing up for a potential reversal in the market. The pattern we're watching suggests a possible shift from the recent downtrend. The key here is the smaller second candle closing within the first, signalling the bulls might be stepping back in.
While the start of the month could be choppy, the confirmation of this pattern by the October monthly close could be the push needed for a strong rally ahead.
Bullish Harami: a bullish reversal pattern (which occurs after a downtrend). When it appears in a downtrend, it is a bullish signal.
Recognition Criteria
To identify a general Harami pattern, look for the following criteria:
There is a prevailing trend, whether it’s an uptrend or a downtrend.
The first candle must continue in the direction of the current trend. It will be the same colour as the current trend and have a long body.
The second candle must be contained within the first candle’s body (so it opens and closes within the first candle's body). It can be either colour, and it will have a smaller body. Only the body needs to be contained within the first candle; the wicks are irrelevant.
The next candle confirms this pattern (this is the October monthly close)
If you have any questions, please reach out!
Bitcoin Price Outlook: Is a Bitcoin Rally Imminent?As the financial world closely watches the signals from Jerome Powell, Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, optimism is rising around Bitcoin's potential next rally. Powell's confidence in cooling inflation and the U.S. economy’s strength has caught the attention of Bitcoin enthusiasts, especially as monetary easing could work in favor of the flagship cryptocurrency. But is Bitcoin set for a breakout, or are there hurdles in the way?
Jerome Powell’s Inflation Confidence & Potential Impact on Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC )
At the 66th NABE annual meeting, Jerome Powell reaffirmed the Federal Reserve's ability to bring inflation down to the 2% target. He expressed optimism about the labor market's stability and the U.S. economy's resilience despite a cooling job market. Powell’s statement carries weight, as any dovish shift in Fed policy could significantly influence risk-on assets like Bitcoin.
Powell hinted that any further rate cuts would hinge on incoming inflation data, aligning with the Fed’s cautious approach. Despite the uncertainty of immediate cuts, the notion that inflation is under control sparks hope for Bitcoin, as a lower interest rate environment could drive liquidity into the market, benefiting assets like BTC. Further dovish movements or interest rate cuts could fuel a renewed wave of institutional and retail interest in Bitcoin.
Bitcoin's Bullish Fundamentals & Historic Patterns
Bitcoin’s long-term bullish sentiment remains intact, especially as it heads into the fourth quarter. Historically, Q4 has been one of Bitcoin’s most profitable periods. For instance, CRYPTOCAP:BTC is poised for a positive close for September, and historically, whenever Bitcoin ends September in green, it follows with strong performances in October, November, and December.
More than just seasonality, Bitcoin’s fundamental outlook is supported by the global macro environment. With central banks in major economies like China adopting monetary easing policies, Bitcoin, being a risk-on asset, is expected to benefit from global liquidity. Market analysts from QCP Capital have predicted that such policies will boost Bitcoin, aligning with the narrative of Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and traditional finance’s uncertainties.
Technical Analysis: Bitcoin’s Resistance and Momentum
On the technical side, Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) is currently trading between $61,000 and $65,000, showing a consolidation pattern. This range has become a key pivot point for BTC, with the $63,000 level acting as a significant resistance barrier. At the time of writing, Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) is down 3.15%, continuing its oscillation within this range. Despite this dip, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 56, signaling that Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) still holds bullish momentum and is not yet overbought.
Technical analysts have pointed to $70,000 as the key resistance level Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) needs to break through to confirm the next leg of its bull run. Should CRYPTOCAP:BTC reclaim this level, it could set the stage for new all-time highs, as predicted by analysts like Markus Thielen, who expects Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) to surge past $70,000 by late October.
The next few weeks could be pivotal for CRYPTOCAP:BTC as it heads toward a monthly close. Historically, Bitcoin only posts negative returns in October twice, reinforcing the optimism that Bitcoin could close the year on a high note, pushing to new heights.
Factors to Watch: U.S. Elections & Regulatory Landscape
While the technical and fundamental outlooks remain bullish, Bitcoin’s future will also be influenced by external factors. The upcoming U.S. presidential elections could serve as a major catalyst. Both parties have expressed openness toward Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ), with discussions about potentially making Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) a legal tender in the U.S. This, if it materializes, would create a massive wave of institutional adoption, further cementing Bitcoin’s position as a mainstream asset.
However, regulatory uncertainties continue to hang over the cryptocurrency market. Global regulatory bodies are increasing scrutiny on digital assets, and Bitcoin’s future could hinge on how these regulatory frameworks evolve. Additionally, global adoption rates and market sentiment around decentralized finance (DeFi) will play crucial roles in shaping Bitcoin’s next moves.
Conclusion
While short-term volatility and regulatory hurdles remain, Bitcoin’s long-term outlook is strongly bullish. Jerome Powell’s optimism around cooling inflation and potential rate cuts are supportive macro conditions for CRYPTOCAP:BTC , while historical performance and technical indicators point toward a potential rally in the coming months.
As Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) moves into the final quarter of 2024, eyes will be on key resistance levels, the U.S. elections, and regulatory developments. The path to $70,000 is in sight, and if Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) breaks through, it could trigger a new all-time high by the end of the year.
$BTC is poised to reach $115,000 in the next 9 months! Read WHY!You're aiming for $200k and beyond, but let’s keep it simple and realistic. If BTC hits $115k, altcoins could surge by 20x or even 50x! You just need to play it smart.
Now, let’s break down this simple chart!
Liquidity acts like a magnet! When a big green candle prints, it’s likely that, after a few more candles, the price will move to capture the liquidity from that same candle. Bitcoin has been following this pattern for the past 7 months, inching forward slowly, bit by bit. This is exactly how the whales are accumulating!
The August monthly candle closed at $58,963, and the current candle is set to close in about 4 hours, likely above the August close, forming a beautiful hammer pattern. This is a strong bullish signal!
When you’re unsure about what’s coming or just making wild guesses, remember—this is simply TA based on Price Action. No fancy indicators, just the facts.
Speaking of indicators, the RSI is currently around 63.13, and in every bull run, it eventually climbs up to 92, entering the overbought zone.
So stay strong and stop crying over 10-20% dips in altcoins.
If you can’t handle these corrections, you don’t deserve the 10x gains either.
Keeping it simple, the next 6 months are going to be amazing. Now is the time to position yourself in solid Altcoins and BTC.
After every halving, there's typically a 5 to 6-month consolidation phase, which you can clearly observe on the charts. We’re following the same pattern right now! Things are heating up, but you might not notice if you're only focused on 15-minute candles. Zoom out, and everything will become much clearer for you to understand.
I hope you get some light from my charts, If you do please hit that like button and share this chart with your crypto friends.
Thank you
#PEACE
Bitcoin & some Sunday thoughtsAt this moment, I’m long Bitcoin, just like many others out there who are hoping for the next all-time high.
The dream of Bitcoin breaking its historical peak is alive, but there’s this lingering question I can’t ignore: what if it doesn’t happen?
It’s worth considering a scenario that no one really talks about — what if Bitcoin doesn't break out to new highs and instead stays in a range between $50k and $70k for the next few years?
We've seen this play out before in other markets. Take gold, for example, between 2020 and 2024. After its big run-up, it stayed in a range, teasing breakouts but taking years before finally breaking through its previous all-time high.
What If Bitcoin Enters a Prolonged Range?
The idea that Bitcoin might simply range trade between key levels for a long period is not that far-fetched. The fact that we now have Bitcoin ETFs isn't necessarily a bullish argument. After all, ETFs exist for gold too, and that didn’t prevent gold from ranging for several years.
Similarly, the argument that institutional investors are buying Bitcoin also isn’t a guarantee of a breakout. Big players have been accumulating gold for years, and yet, the price didn't explode immediately. Instead, it moved in a sideways range, frustrating long term bulls, until it was ready for a sustained move.
The Danger of Fake Breakouts
Bitcoin is notorious for its spike-like moves that give traders hope of a breakout, only to reverse in the opposite direction shortly after. It’s entirely possible that in the coming months or years, we could see multiple fake breakouts to the upside, triggering excitement that "this is it," only for Bitcoin to quickly retrace, leaving traders caught off-guard.
The same thing could happen with downward spikes that make people think the bull market is over, only for Bitcoin to bounce back into its range.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s potential to enter a prolonged range, despite the ETF and institutional buying, is a real possibility. The key takeaway is that traders and investors should be prepared for both scenarios: the explosive breakout everyone hopes for, but also the chance that Bitcoin could just as easily trade sideways for years, keeping everyone guessing.
As always, the market will do what it wants, and our job as traders is to remain adaptable, keep emotions in check, and make the best decisions based on what we see, not just what we hope for.
BTC | LTF and HTF TargetsIf this zone cannot hold the price, it means that we have moved from the quick no retest rise phase to the deep retest phase.
The deep retest phase is the stage where traders who cannot catch the price during the rapid rise try long from everywhere to compensate for this.
If I try my luck here once and stopped out, I will wait for the real buyer and cheap zone below.
DXY doing Cycle Wave 2, now inside the Wave C about to break SupHello everyone,
In this scenario the DXY has finished the Wave Cycle Wave 1, with 5 Waves (Ending in September 2022), and now it is doing the Wave 2.
Inside the Wave 2, we encounter ourselves inside the Wave C already.
The Wave C is about to break the 100 support area, and targeting at least 92 target.
The 92 target is the minimum move that it needs to perform, since it will be the same lenght as the Wave A.
Knowing this, we expect to see other Assets rise as the Dólar falls in the upcoming months
Bitcoin is above main Support
After breaking the resistance level of $65,000, Bitcoin is currently trading above this level, which has now become an important support level. As seen in the chart, Bitcoin is in a mid-term ascending channel, and upon hitting the resistance level of $66,400, it faced a rejection and broke below the midline of the ascending channel.
We expect Bitcoin to test the support range between $64,500 and $65,000 before starting a new upward movement.
If it rejects from this level and buying pressure increases, we will likely see a retest of the resistance range between $64,500 and $67,000.
Conversely, if the support level is lost, we could witness increased selling pressure, leading to a move towards the bottom of the ascending channel. If the bottom of the channel is broken, a candlestick shadow towards $63,700 may form.
With the opening of global banks, we expect to see the beginning of volatility in Bitcoin.
#BTC/USDT Weekend Update!#BTCUSDT: Not much is happening—just sideways price action on low volume due to the weekend. Expecting more volatility on Monday after the weekly close.
For now, OB remains untested so be ready if that gets tested, possibly $63k-$64.3k.
It will give us some good entries for scalp and swing in altcoins.
With both the monthly and weekly closes approaching, these will be crucial. We’ll need a few confirmations for the anticipated "UPtober." I’ll be sharing more details on Monday.
Alts?
Alts might be choppy for now, but I expect strong rallies next month.
Remember, dips are for buying!
Have a great weekend folks!
Do hit the like button if you like it and share your views in the comment section.
Thank you
#PEACE