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GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, Another great day on the charts with our levels playing out and respecting perfectly. 3201 Goldturn failed to lock below, which provided the support like we said and the bounce back into 3230. We will now either look for a break and lock above 3230 for a continuation into the Bullish targets or we will continue to track the movement down with ema5 lock and catch the weighted level bounces inline with our plans to buy dips. We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges. BULLISH TARGET 3261 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3261 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3292 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3292 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3324 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3324 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3352 BEARISH TARGETS 3230 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3230 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 3201 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3201 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE 3179 3152 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3152 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE 3120 3094 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3094 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE SECONDARY SWING RANGE 3069 - 3038 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
18
Hanzo | Gold 15 min Breaks – Will Confirm the Next Move🆚 Gold The Path of – Hanzo’s Market Strike 🔥 Key Levels & Breakout Strategy – 15M TF Deep market insight – no random moves, only calculated execution. ☄️ Bearish After Break Out – 3212 Zone Price must break liquidity with high volume to confirm the move. 🩸 15M Time Frame Analysis CHoCH & Liquidity Grab — CHoCH & Liquidity Grab @ 3240 CHoCH & Liquidity Grab @ 3185 Strong Rejection from 3100 – The Ultimate Pivot Strong Rejection from 3240 – The Ultimate Pivot Strong Rejection from 3200 – The Ultimate Pivot 🔥Key Level / Equal Area — Key Level / Equal lows Formation - 3195 Key Level / Equal High Formation - 3245 X6 Retest Valid Key level - 3239 X6 Retest Valid Key level - 3212 👌 The Market Has Spoken – Are You Ready to Strike? Hanzo | Gold 15 min Breaks – Will Confirm the Next Move
TVC:GOLD
by Path_Of_Hanzo
Daily Analysis of USOILChanges in Crude Oil Supply and Demand: Demand Side: China imposes tariffs on U.S. crude oil, raising the import cost and reducing the import volume. The United States imposes tariffs on energy imports from Canada and Mexico, affecting the crude oil exports of these two countries to the U.S., reducing the demand for crude oil in the United States and putting pressure on the price of USOIL 😟. Supply Side: After China reduces its imports of U.S. crude oil, it increases imports from other exporting countries, changing the global crude oil supply pattern and possibly strengthening the expectation of a supply surplus. The decrease in U.S. crude oil exports may lead to an increase in domestic inventory, exerting downward pressure on the price of USOIL 😣. 💰💰💰 USOIL💰💰💰 🎯 Sell@61.0 - 61.2 🎯 TP 59.5 - 59.5 Traders, if you're fond of this perspective or have your own insights regarding it, feel free to share in the comments. I'm really looking forward to reading your thoughts! 🤗 The accuracy rate of our daily signals has remained above 98% within a month! 📈 We sincerely welcome you to join our channel and share in the success with us! 🌟
TVC:USOILShort
by PearlMichael
Hanzo | Gold 15 min Breaks – Will Confirm the Next Move🆚 Gold The Path of – Hanzo’s Market Strike 🔥 Key Levels & Breakout Strategy – 15M TF Deep market insight – no random moves, only calculated execution. ☄️ Bullish After Break Out – 3239 Zone Price must break liquidity with high volume to confirm the move. ☄️ Bearish After Break Out – 3216 Zone Price must break liquidity with high volume to confirm the move. 🩸 15M Time Frame Analysis CHoCH & Liquidity Grab — CHoCH & Liquidity Grab @ 3240 CHoCH & Liquidity Grab @ 3185 Strong Rejection from 3100 – The Ultimate Pivot Strong Rejection from 3240 – The Ultimate Pivot Strong Rejection from 3200 – The Ultimate Pivot 🔥Key Level / Equal Area — Key Level / Equal lows Formation - 3195 Key Level / Equal High Formation - 3245 X6 Retest Valid Key level - 3239 X6 Retest Valid Key level - 3212 👌 The Market Has Spoken – Are You Ready to Strike?
TVC:GOLD
by Path_Of_Hanzo
GOLD - Price can rise a little and then correct to support areaHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 A few days ago price traded inside a rising channel, showing steady growth and holding above support levels. Later, Gold made several breakouts from local resistances and continued to rise within the channel borders. Eventually price reached the upper edge of the channel and formed a local top around the $3238 level. Recently, it made a short-term pullback and now trades just above $3165 support zone without momentum. Currently, Gold stays in the upper part of the range but shows early weakness after a strong bullish rally. In my opinion, Gold can decline and reach the $3140 support level during the next corrective wave down. If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by WalterMoon
12
How to Trade the Tariff Turmoil: Markets Now Move on HeadlinesMarkets in 2025 have become increasingly unpredictable, largely driven by one factor: tariffs. President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policy has shaken investor confidence and turned global markets into a rollercoaster. The key to navigating this new environment? Understand that markets are no longer just reacting to economic data—they’re reacting to headlines. The biggest shock came on April 2, when Trump announced a 145% tariff on all Chinese imports and “reciprocal” tariffs on dozens of other countries. The reaction was immediate: the S&P 500 dropped nearly 15% at its lowest point that week, and investors rushed to sell risk assets. Days later, markets sharply reversed after Trump temporarily suspended some tariffs. That sparked a rally—tech stocks soared, Apple rose 5%, and the Nasdaq gained over 2%. But the relief was short-lived. Conflicting messages and partial rollbacks continued to send markets up and down. Earlier, on March 4, tariffs were placed on Canada and Mexico, while China’s rates were doubled. These moves led to more selling in stocks and a spike in demand for bonds. By mid-April, exemptions for electronics boosted tech names again, but overall market sentiment remained fragile. How to Trade This New Market The main lesson for traders and investors is clear: We’re now in a headline-driven market. Traditional strategies that rely solely on fundamentals or economic cycles are being overshadowed by sudden political developments. Here’s how to adapt: Stay Nimble and News-Aware Be ready for fast moves. Market direction can flip in minutes based on a single press conference or tweet. Have alerts set for major geopolitical and tariff-related headlines. Reduce position sizes during uncertainty and avoid holding large trades through major announcements. Rethink Your Safe Havens The U.S. dollar is no longer acting like the safe haven it used to be. With rising fiscal concerns and volatile trade policy, investors are shifting toward alternatives. Gold and the Swiss franc (CHF) have become more reliable options during risk-off moments. If uncertainty spikes, these assets may offer better protection than the dollar. Focus on Sectors Sensitive to Policy Tech stocks have been among the most affected. Tariff exemptions caused sharp rallies, while new restrictions triggered big drops. If you trade sectors like tech, consumer goods, or industrials, stay especially alert for trade-related headlines. Bottom line: In 2025, geopolitics is moving markets more than ever. The old playbook needs updating. By staying flexible, tracking headlines, and turning to traditional safe havens like gold and CHF, traders can better navigate the noise—and find opportunity in the chaos.
TVC:DXY
by Jacques1000
1
HelenP. I Gold may make correction and then continue to growHi folks today I'm prepared for you Gold analytics. Following a deep correction that pushed the price down to the support zone between 2975 and 2950 points, Gold made a strong bullish reversal. This zone had already acted as a key accumulation area in the past, and once again, buyers stepped in aggressively. The reaction from support 2 at 2975 points was sharp, with the price bouncing and forming a clear impulse move. As XAU continued to rise, it broke back above the trend line and retested it, turning former resistance into support. Shortly after, the price pushed above the local support zone between 3165 and 3185 points, confirming the strength of the bullish trend. This zone is now acting as a base for further growth. Currently, Gold is trading above the trend line and support zone, holding near the 3230 area. The recent bullish momentum, strong impulse structure, and consistent reaction to technical levels indicate that buyers remain in control. Given the breakout, successful retest, and strength from key support zones, I expect XAUUSD to continue rising toward my goal at 3300 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by FirstNameHelen
22
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-15 : Base Rally PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ have been busy forming a BASE and may transition into a moderate rally mode. I believe this move will prompt the SPY to move above the $550 level, potentially targeting $555-565 over the next 48 hours. This upward move could be related to news or Q1:2025 earnings. I don't believe the markets really want to move downward at this time, although I do believe the markets will move into a topping pattern by the end of this week. Gold and Silver are moving into BLANK pattern day, today. Given the fact that we are between rally patterns and the metals charts show a very clear FLAGGING formation (watch my video), I believe we are moving into a FLAG APEX that will prompt a move above $3300 (for Gold) and $33 (for Silver). It's just a matter of time. BTCUSD is still struggling in the Consolidation phase. As I keep suggesting, I believe the next move for Bitcoin is to the downside. But, until we break this consolidation phase, price will continue to roll around within the consolidation range. Remember, we are going to be moving back to more normal volatility. So you need to understand these huge daily ranges are going to vanish over the next 3-5+ days. Volatility will likely move back to the 1% to 2.5% range very quickly. Get some.. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
22
Front-loaded Exports has fuelled rally in Corn. Can it last?After President Trump instituted broad new tariffs on 2nd April 2025, corn futures initially wavered but then rallied sharply. While this may seem counterintuitive given tariffs' disruptive impact on trade, near-term support for corn comes from front-loaded U.S. exports, a weaker dollar, and lower-than-expected domestic supply. However, prices are likely to face downward pressure as the U.S. harvest season approaches. This paper examines the short-term bullish factors, outlines the potential risks ahead, and presents a hypothetical trade setup involving a calendar spread on CME Micro Corn futures. CME Corn futures gapped lower on 3rd April but quickly recovered, jumping 4.5% over the next three trading days to six-week highs by 9th April. This move aligns with the typical spring seasonal trend, as corn often firms in late spring during planting & strong demand season. Surging Export Commitments Amid Tariffs Export commitments have surged post-tariff announcement. USDA reports that U.S. exporters had already booked about 85% of the 2024/25 season target by early April, according to Reuters , well above the 5‐year average. In the week ending 3rd April, net U.S. corn sales hit ~40.2 million bushels, reflecting heavy front-loading. Large private sales continue: for example, in early April exporters announced a 9.4-million-bushel sale of 2024/25 corn to Spain. These front-loaded sales (especially to Mexico & Europe) suggest buyers are rushing to secure supply before possible trade disruptions. Overall, extraordinarily strong export pace and large “flash” sales are underpinning the market. Supply is Weaker than Initially Thought USDA’s April WASDE cut U.S. 2024/25 ending stocks to just 1.465 billion bushels – a 75 million bushels reduction – implying a stocks/use ratio around 9.6%. For context, that ratio is near multi-decade lows for corn. The USDA simultaneously raised exports to 2.55 billion bushels, a full 100 million bushels above the previous estimate. On the supply side, USDA’s Prospective Plantings (March 2025) projected 95.3 million corn acres for 2025, roughly 5% higher than 2024, above expectations (highlighted by Mint Finance in a previous paper ). This suggests that while near-term stocks remain stressed the situation is likely to improve drastically following the harvest. Weaker Dollar Supports Increased Corn Exports A key bullish factor for U.S. corn exports is the recent weakness of the U.S. dollar. After the tariff announcement, the trade-weighted dollar tumbled – hitting fresh lows (e.g. a 10-year low versus the Swiss franc). Through April 10, the dollar was down ~2–3% on the week. A weaker dollar makes U.S. corn cheaper for overseas buyers, supporting export competitiveness. With dollar at multi-year lows, U.S. corn is more attractive globally, partly offsetting any Chinese retaliatory tariffs. COT and Options Data Managed-money funds have dramatically pared back their long corn bets since the beginning of March. CFTC COT data show net long positions peaking around 364,000 contracts in early February, then plunging to ~54,000 by the 8th April report. However, the pace of decline has slowed dramatically over the past few weeks and seems to be signalling an end of the cutback by asset managers. Interestingly, despite the tariff introduction (2/April) and the WASDE release (10/April), implied volatility (IV) moderated. IV has since normalized from the spike observed in March. During this period, skew also declined, reaching a negative value on 8th April - indicating that put options briefly became more expensive than calls. Although this trend has since reversed, skew remains near its lowest levels in 2025, suggesting sustained interest in put options among market participants. Source: CME CVOL OI shift over the past week also signals a cautious tone despite the rally. Near term options have seen an increase in put OI, suggesting participants remain cautious despite the rally. Source: CME QuikStrike Hypothetical Trade Setup While bullish factors have driven a sharp rally in corn prices over the past two weeks, there are dark clouds on the horizon. Tariffs risk disrupting trade and as most importers have already loaded up on US corn, they could slow the pace of future purchases. Additionally, a downbeat seasonal trend along with an expected bumper harvest signal that prices could reverse sharply from here. On the technical front, momentum remains solidly bullish but approaching a potential overbought level amid a slowing bullish trend. Corn prices remain pressured from a bumper harvest expected in September. Along with expected trade disruptions and a slowdown in the pace of US exports, prices are likely to decline during the summer. Regardless, prices remain bullish in the near term from a weakening dollar and near-term front loading. To express views on these converging trends, investors can deploy a calendar spread on CME Micro Corn futures consisting of a long position on the near-term May contract (MZCK2025) and a short position on the September contract (MZCU2025). A hypothetical trade setup providing a reward to risk ratio of 1.8x is mentioned below: A calendar spread on CME Micro Corn Futures is highly capital efficient with the above trade requiring maintenance margin of just USD 23 as of 15/April. The position remains protected from near-term price increase but benefits from the eventual price decline in September during harvest season. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme . DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CBOT_MINI:MZC1!
by mintdotfinance
2
WTI Oil Inverse Head & Shoulders looking for a 4H MA50 break-outWTI Oil (USOIL) has formed an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern, which is a technical bottom formation that signals the trend change to bullish. So far the move is limited by the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) which has 2 rejections already and is keeping the bullish break-out from happening. If the market closes a candle above the 4H MA50, we will have a bullish confirmation signal. Our Target will be the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $69.00 and not higher, because the long-term trend is limited by the wider Lower Highs trend-line of January. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:WTILong
by TradingShot
GOLD (XAU/USD) at ATH – Two Key Scenarios to WatchGold has reached ATH, and we're currently testing a critical resistance zone. Look at my previous published post, perfectly played out and we're just getting started. 📈 Scenario 1: If the 1H candle body breaks above resistance with a confirmed close, we’re likely to see a push toward the $3,300 level before a potential pullback toward $3100 📉 Scenario 2: If we fail to break resistance, a pullback toward the $3,100 zone is expected before a bounce back to $3,350. Wait for a retest confirmation on the 1H candle body closure before taking any position. Updates will be published!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by mrdundeee
3
Consolidation Phase in XAU/USD with Bullish PotentialFollowing a period of strong bullish momentum, XAU/USD is currently trading sideways, remaining confined within the price range established between Friday and Monday. This consolidation suggests the market may continue ranging in the short term. However, if the price dips below the lows of the past two days and breaches the ascending trendline, there is a strong potential for a rebound and continuation to the upside. An alternative scenario could see the formation of a triangle or rising wedge pattern near the current resistance zone. Despite short-term uncertainty, a key support area around 3170–3180 remains critical. A bounce from this zone could signal the resumption of upward movement. Traders are advised to monitor these key levels closely for confirmation of the next significant directional move. The next target is the resistance zone near 3285
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by RTED_Investing
8
The latest gold strategy analysis and precise guidanceAfter the surge, the bullish momentum weakened. The price fell back to around $3,100 during the European session, testing the lower support of the channel. Although the CPI data is bullish, if the inflation rises and strengthens the Fed's expectation of delaying interest rate cuts, it may suppress the upside of gold prices. Technically, if it falls below the 3100 support, it may fall back to the 3080-3078 range; on the contrary, if it stabilizes, it is expected to rebound to the 3150-3154 resistance line. Gold operation suggestion: short gold at 3145-3155. Target 3115
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Theodore_Daniel
GOLD Sellers In Panic! BUY! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for GOLD below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 3201.5 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 3216.0 Safe Stop Loss - 3194.0 About Used Indicators: The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by AnabelSignals
2
Gold Market Outlook: Key Risks and Opportunities Ahead 📌 Gold Market Outlook: Key Risks and Opportunities Ahead 💰📉 🔍 Current Trend and Short-Term Risk Gold continues to exhibit strong bullish momentum, although minor corrections remain possible in the short term. A key driver for sustaining the uptrend will be the strength of buyers at support zones like 3196 and 3204. However, if the market fails to hold above 3135, we could see a deeper retracement. In such a case, a drop toward the 311x region could offer an attractive buying opportunity — particularly if bullish price reactions are confirmed near that level. 🧭 Key Levels to Watch 3135 Support: A break below this zone with strong momentum could signal potential bearish continuation. Any move toward 311x should be closely monitored for a bullish reversal setup. 311x Zone: If price pulls back to this range and we observe reaction or rejection, it could present a high-probability buy opportunity to rejoin the broader uptrend. 🌍 Impact of a Quiet News Week With no major economic releases on the calendar, market direction will likely be determined by volume flows and price action near key technical zones. Areas such as 3195, 3204, and 3245 will be pivotal in shaping short-term sentiment. Traders should remain attentive to how price behaves around these levels, especially during London and New York sessions where most volume is concentrated. 🛠️ Tactical Plan for the Week Asian & European Sessions Focus: Look for momentum plays or reaction signals at key intraday support levels (e.g. 3196). Sharp pullbacks may offer buy setups with solid risk/reward ratios. Sell Scenarios at Resistance: If price breaks above 3245 with weak follow-through and fails to hold, that could provide an opportunity for tactical short entries — but only with confirmation via volume or rejection patterns. Stick to Your Plan: Despite the current volatility, it’s critical to adhere to your strategy. Avoid emotional trades, always manage risk, and respect your TP/SL levels. 💡 Conclusion Gold remains in a strong upward trend with active buyers around key support zones. While short-term pullbacks are expected, they could offer new opportunities to scale in. Stay patient, trade with discipline, and let the market offer confirmation before committing to a position. Even in a quiet news environment, well-prepared traders can take advantage of high-quality setups by focusing on structure and risk management.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
4
Gold fluctuates at a high level, how to choose the direction?​​This week, the gold market showed a high range oscillation pattern. After opening at 3210 on Monday, it quickly rose to the historical high of 3245, but the daily line closed with a negative cross needle, indicating that the long-short game intensified. The gold price fluctuated and fell in the Asian and NY periods. Although the NY period showed a short-term illusion of a high rise, it failed to break through 3227 and plunged to 3193 under pressure. The rebound in the late trading recovered some of the lost ground. The current price of gold is running in the range of 3245-3193, and it continued to consolidate in a narrow range at 3215 today. It is worth noting that the market generally expects the unilateral 100-point market last week to reappear, but ignores the characteristics of this week's oscillation and energy storage. Blindly chasing ups and downs is easy to fall into passivity. From the technical form, the upper 3237-3245 constitutes a strong resistance zone, and the lower 3193-3188 forms a key support. It is recommended that everyone maintain the thinking of range operation, rely on support and resistance to choose the opportunity to buy low and sell high, and wait patiently for the market to clarify the direction before making trend layout. ​ Operation strategy 1: It is recommended to go short at rebound 3225-3230, SL: 3237, TP: 3200-3190. ​ Operation strategy 2: It is recommended to go long at callback 3190-3185, SL: 3177, TP: 3210-3220.
TVC:GOLD
by GoldenViewJake
2
XAGUSD Silver: Navigating Transition from Rally to Correction.Technical Analysis: XAGUSD (Silver) 📈 Silver (XAGUSD) is displaying bullish momentum following a significant rally. The precious metal has pushed into higher territory, creating an overextended condition on the price chart. 💹 Currently trading at a premium level, Silver appears ripe for a potential retracement. This elevated positioning suggests buyers may be exhausting their momentum, creating favorable conditions for a corrective move. 🔄 From a Wyckoff perspective, we're observing a classic distribution pattern with price action ranging sideways after the strong upward move. This horizontal consolidation often precedes a change in direction, as smart money potentially distributes positions to retail traders at these premium levels. ⚠️ Particularly noteworthy is the potential for a spring formation. If price breaks below the current range only to reverse sharply higher, this false breakdown could trap shorts and fuel further upside momentum. Conversely, a decisive break below market structure could confirm distribution is complete. 🎯 Trade Idea: Monitor the 30-minute timeframe for a clear break of market structure to the downside. Such a breakdown following this sideways ranging behavior would align with Wyckoff distribution principles and could signal the beginning of a more substantial correction. 🔍 Entry on confirmation of the breakdown with targets at key support levels would provide a measured approach to capitalizing on the potential reversal from these premium prices.
PEPPERSTONE:XAGUSD
by fxtraderanthony
2
Gold – Potential Bearish Continuation After Lower High FormationMarket Context: Gold has shown strong bullish momentum in recent sessions, but the current price structure hints at potential exhaustion. After forming a possible lower high near the $3,220 zone, price action has started to roll over, and the market may now be transitioning into a distribution phase. Technical Breakdown: - The chart shows a clear uptrend leading into the $3,220 region, followed by a rejection and initial breakdown. - A lower low has already been printed, signaling a potential change in character (CHOCH) from bullish to bearish. - A Fair Value Gap (FVG) has been left behind on the move down, sitting between approximately $3,160–$3,180. This area could act as a supply zone if price attempts a retracement. Bearish Scenario Development: Price is expected to retrace back into the FVG (imbalance), where selling pressure may reappear. This area also aligns roughly with a 0.28 Fibonacci level from the recent impulse down — a common retracement point for corrective moves in a shifting market. Should this retracement hold and show rejection (e.g., wick rejections, bearish engulfing, displacement), the market could resume downward movement, continuing the developing bearish trend. The next potential liquidity target sits around the $3,060–$3,040 zone, aligning with the 0.618–0.65 Fibonacci retracement of the prior bullish move. Key Technical Levels: - Supply/FVG zone: ~$3,160–$3,180 - Current resistance region: ~$3,220 (prior swing high) - Potential demand zone: ~$3,060–$3,040 (0.618–0.65 retracement) - Deeper retracement zone: ~$3,000 (0.786 level and prior structure confluence) What to Look For: - If price retraces into the FVG and shows weakness, this could confirm the lower high and continuation of the bearish leg. - A clean break of the $3,060 level would further validate the bearish bias, likely drawing price toward deeper retracement zones. - If, however, price reclaims and holds above the FVG zone, the bias may shift back to bullish, and a reevaluation would be necessary. Conclusion: Gold is currently setting up a possible bearish continuation following a lower low and signs of exhaustion. The upcoming reaction to the FVG zone will be crucial. If the market respects this supply region, it could offer a clean move toward the $3,060 area and possibly lower. As always, let price confirm before acting—structure and reaction at key zones remain vital in this unfolding setup.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by Louigi_24
48