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COT

Gold: Strong bullish sentiment in the hobby trader communityLots of big bulls now in the retail community. Bad sign. Here are the areas with buyers: Notice the small fish were net short at the bottom. Pathetic. First they think the "bull market is back" inside of a drawn out distribution pattern. Second they "have strong hands" and "DCA average down" catching falling knives. Third they get wiped out. Fourth they "learn their lesson" and angrilly short the bottom. Fifth they attempt to slit their wrists. And swear they'll never trade again. I am not making this up man. You can see the volumes for yourself. 🤣 The market really has this ability to find anyone breaking point and make them go "I am done. I can't take anymore." Regardless of the price, regarless of any rational consideration. They'll sell at the good support they dreamt of buying 1 year ago and they'll say "I know but I don't care". Alot of people are thinking "the pullbacks will be smaller than you expect you will keep chasing it and not be able to buy" and will chase the price and so same as 2008. It will last forever and go back and forth. Maybe the USD could get strong in the meantime. How many weeks of months it will take I do not know. But the area I am interest in is around 1700. There are virtually no buyers before 1800! And as we have seen both large speculators and hedgers have shown no interest for these prices. Let all the struggling gambling small retail traders that think they are the new George Soros go try and be heros that think they can outsmart the whole market. There probably are noobs getting all excited that think this 1 buy will turn them into Soros or Jim Rogers and they have to rush and cannot afford to miss. Sure, some hedge funds might start finally showing interest from now one, but it will be like a snowball, and they won't start putting their feet in the water just because Berkshire bought a few gold stocks. Not like "don't worry the cavalry is here" and just solo charge head first all alone and save the day. I am not interested in doing business if I do not have numerical superiority on my side. That simple. I choose the day of the battle (well within what the market decides for me). I choose who I fight with. I choose how much I risk. It's all me. We will fight on my terms, where I want, and when I want. And if I say retreat we retreat. Hard to lose that way xd Almost feels like cheating. Absolute strategic superiority. Use all information available and pick your battles. And one last point, just because I think gold will take a big plunge does not mean I am getting all excited and want to short it. Corrections are often noise. I do not conduct business into noise.
TVC:GOLDShort
by MrRenev
12
EUR/ USD Here on the Euro we have a 222 pattern that fits due to the 3% tolerance outlined in the Harmonic Trading Volume 3 book Scott Carney published in 2016 (I THINK). The white line is the HOP Level for the Pattern! We have a classic Bullish Flag Pattern that has formed on the Daily chart and there is about 300 pips from PA now to the HOP Level. If PA closes above the trend line i will be entering the trade to take the trade to the HOP Level. **Reasoning Later** The HOP Level is the make or break for any pattern and i do expect this pattern to give us atleast a T1 setup. Reasoning for the entry... The Euro has been a strong buy for the past couple of weeks with the Commercials selling decent amount of shares and the Non-Commercials buying the shaes up driving the Euro Higher. I do see the euro driving this pair higher as more and more traders are shorting the pair thinking we have hit the ceiling and yet the paradox continues because we think it cant go higher and it does. and the COT suggests it is. And in combination with that the DXY is finally bearish on the COT and the dollar is about to fall some more with the Commercials and Non-Commercials finally switching sides. The Commercials are buying shares off the non-Commercials and the Non-Commercials are selling which is causing the dollar to sink. which will cause this pair to easily go higher. I suspect this pair to make it to the HOP level by the end of the week and reverse to a Type One set up off the HOP making the move the correction in the trend and continue higher. it is very possible for this pair to exceed the HOP and just keep moving higher. only time will tell!
Long
by ARegularGuy
1
▲ VIDEO: BTC • Bitcoin • Chart, COT, Futures, OptionsCheck video for my latest thoughts ———————————————— ▲ DELTA7™ Trend Score ▲ D aily • possible full retrace to get those stops and degen over-leveraged traders. retrace possible back to 9.1 (possible invalidation closing bellow 9.0) ▲ W weekly • weekly seem to regain direction targets around 9.5-10k next ▲ M onthly • uptrend perhaps heading towards 13k ————————————————
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by D7R
1
Gold - significant divergenceThe price of gold has reached the highest levels since 2011. However, the large speculators seem to be trimming their net long positions creating a significant divergence. Divergence in which the price has been reaching new highs while the net long positions have been falling. This may suggest that the market important market participants do not believe in such a strong upward trend. The nearest resistance which could be tested is set by the line drawn through the tops. The nearest potential support may be located at 1691 USD. ________ Daniel Kostecki, Chief Analyst Conotoxia Ltd. Materials, analysis and opinions contained, referenced or provided herein are intended solely for informational and educational purposes. Personal opinion of the author does not represent and should not be constructed as a statement or an investment advice made by Conotoxia Ltd. All indiscriminate reliance on illustrative or informational materials may lead to losses. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. 79% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
COMEX:GC1!
by Daniel_Kostecki
COT INDEX - POSSIBLE BOTTOMThe timing of commercials players trading Gasoline RBOB can be described as superb, with just one wrong signal since 2007. The COT Index possible bottom signal triggered this week, but before we jump in the trade there are some considerations of the actual scenario that need to be taken into account during our decision to take or not the trade. I just read two articles one from the eternal bear ZeroHedge and another one from WSJ, and while 99.99% of traders and analysts would believe this is super bearish Oil. Such interpretation in the vacuum can lead to inaccurate conclusions. OPEC made a huge move with a record production cut to offset the demand destruction, and this can happen again. The ease in oil cuts is because they are anticipating demand recovery. This is the point where the confusion is made. There is a HUGE difference between demand and consumption. The former refers to the amount of a good that will be used at any given price level, and with supply determines the price, while the latter is the amount of a good used and its determined by the price. An increase in demand means that more will be consumed at any given price level. Factors that might affect demand include disposable income, consumer tastes, and the price of substitute goods but, by definition not price. (Schwager & Etzkorn, 2017) So the increase in production does not mean more of the product will flood the markets and pressure price down. The expectation is more consumption is ahead of us. Another mistake that I see when taking this event of the increase in the output in production as bearish is the lack of perspective. What we saw months ago as a RECORD production cut, this increase is a drop in a bucket and has all elements to get unnoticed by the markets, in fact, it can have the opposite effect because it’s adding positive expectations of world economies recovery. I am holding a BULLISH view on Gasoline RBOB. Assets with BIG correlation with GASOLINE Apache Corp NASDAQ:APA Platinum NYMEX-PL1! Avnet, Inc. NASDAQ:AVT Precision Drilling Corp NYSE:PDS Read the Full Report
NYMEX:RB1!Long
by leoohermoso
The Euro Index (EXY) Here on the Euro Index we have a 222 pattern that formed. what i like to see is that this pattern lines up with the COT report that was released Monday due to July 4th (United States Birthday :D 'merica) being observed on July 3rd. in the circles we have three potential bearish star patterns printing on the PRZ which is a resistance level. depending on how today closes! The COT shows the same thing. this is the first time we have seen some profit taking and contract deliveries by both the commercials and non-commercials. The Commercials delivered about 14k contracts while the non-commercials took profit on about 10k orders. the net data is as follows: Commercials: Current = (147,128)// Previous= (162,540) Non-Coms: Current= 98, 955// Previous= 118,448
TVC:EXYShort
by ARegularGuy
EURUSD ShortFrom the latest EURFX COT report we can see that there is an increase in the short contracts since last week. Till last week we were at record numbers for long contract positions, so a change in the direction is very likely to happen soon. Now: The price tried to break above the monthly critical area. There are 2 scenarios: 1. The most likely one to happen is to see a downside move towards the 1.12232 mark. Critical zones to watch out for are the 1.12863 where we can see a sup/res zone + the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement and the second trendline as well. A good entry may be the neckline at the 1.13050 mark. It will also confirm the final stage of the current 1h “M” formation. 2. If the price goes above the highs from yesterday a move towards the upper highs of the monthly critical is a possibility. Happy Trading!
Short
by SigmaTrading