Get started

COT

GBP/ CAD (Cable/ Loonie) Here on the Pound Cad we have a gorgeous Bat pattern. Right now we See PA respecting the PRZ by throwing Indecesion Candles. Now, whether the pattern works in our favor is a different story but what we do know is the level is valid as PA raced into the PRZ and is now tangled up. im honestly looking for this Current Candle to close as a Bullish Spinning Top or Doji to justify an enterance. Based on the oscillators at the bottom of the screen im waiting for those too. but more emphasis on PA! Will Update as time draws closer to entry!
Long
by ARegularGuy
1
EUR/GBPhere on the Euro/ Pound (EUR/ GBP) we have a nice crab pattern i drew out the other day (Sunday I think) and i have been waiting to enter the trade and missed my opportunity for the type 1 move so now im waiting for the T2 move. the trade is currently 20-ish pips in profit for the T1 setup! the yellow line is the HOP for this pattern. based on the COT report once this trade looks like its reversing take your pips and get out. the COT suggest that the Euro is to move up and the pound is to move down. So, this is a contrarian trade and to be managed automatically due to the large orders for both pairs based on the COT.
Short
by ARegularGuy
1
$YM_S (E-Mini DJI) inspirated by bottomcatcher$YM1 COT on E-MIni DJI shows recent Commercials(Prod/User) traders massive long indexes. I could only get the COT data back to 2010, since then it was only 5 times when Prod/User traders went long $YM_F. 2010 June, 2011 Sep, 2015 Sep, 2016 Feb, and now. You can see that when DJI is below 200 weekly MA, Prod/User traders long indexes and, above that they short indexes. Very simple. The only difference this time is, DJI is above 200 weekly MA but they still hold long massively. Fed QE infinity let them buy equities at least in the MT timeframe.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by KaibaraYuzan
EXY (Euro Index) Technical and COT Analysis Here on the EXY The Euro Index we have the daily and weekly outlook. Now, the euro is playing off a 222 pattern off the Daily chart and the price level is quite significant. Now, for those who have been looking at my charts for quite sometime you will know i hate oscilitaors but until i get candlestick charting down a bit better i use them as a form of confirmation. So, with all being said on both the weekly and daily we have bearish signals. So, on the weekly ***insert personal aside here>>> I have been doing a lot of reading based on Steve Nison's work on Candlestick charting. I own his first book and found his second and his Candle Stick Chart Course book with the help from a friend on here TradingView. I am re-reading all his books to refresh my memory or learing something new*** we have a large resistance area that was made up by two weeks of strong selling. Once PA made it near the top of the resistance area PA started to break down. We know have a few weeks now of indecesion candles with this past week trowing a doji candle. From a techinical standpoint I am expecting price to dip down to the red line which is an 88 candle swing point. So, if this coming week is a bearish one then expect more bearish sentiment until we hit the pending orders of the Big Players having their buy orders near or in a support area indicated on the COT Report (which i will discuss in a bit) Next, on the Daily chart we have a 222 Pattern that has completed and is still in play. it has completed its T1 setup so we can either see more downward movement to the target 2 or a retrace to the PRZ and then a push to the lowside for Target 2 to be hit. Seeing the indication of the weekly Candles i am epecting more downside rather than up! For the COT Data... This is reason i think we havent hit the pending orders of the Big Players, we have for the past few weeks seen the Commercials Increase their shorts but pice is still moving down. Now, for my COT fans Commercials go aganst the trend to lock in a particular rate or price to protect their physical profit made from day to day business. The commercial Shorts have increased their positions by 10k orders and the net data will be displayed later. The non-commercials are still buying from the Commercials but were not seeing any movement to support these numbers. Now, Unless we are seeing some major COT Manipulation by opening orders and quicly closing them before they get filled is one way, or the side im willing to say is more likely is that we havent filled the orders yet and price is still drifting aimlessly. I assume once we start filling these orders we will see some major volatility and start moving in the right direction which would support more downward movement for a cheaper price before we go up COT Net Data Commercials: Current (162,540) // Previous (155,035) Non-Commercials: Current = 118,448 // Previous = 117,132 Again, i think we will see some downturn based on the techincals then we will hit the pendings of the Non-Commercials in a support zone and then off to the races! So at the moment short then a major support level hit Pendings filled and then we move up for a... w h i l e!
TVC:EXYShort
by ARegularGuy
GBP/ AUD (Cable Aussie) Here on the Cable Aussie we have two patterns one i drew and another one from the Software. What im looking for is this current 4 hour candle to close as an engulfing candle at the very minimum a piercing pattern. I will also be looking for the oscillator confirmation. the pattern is a butterfly pattern i have drawn and i think the software picked up either a bat or 222 pattern. Now, on the COT the Pound is still controlled by the commercials buying it but they are stepping closer and closer to the Zero Line every week which a big ship like the Pound takes a long time to turn around. the Non-Commercials are almost to the Zero Line and are eager to finally drive the Cable Up. The Euro is a strong buy and i have been suspecting the Pound to follow. Since the Switch has yet to occur proper R2R should be used. but since both sides are stepping closer to the Zero Line the pound should start to rise early as the Non-Commercials start buying it up. The Aussie is still a sell but this week both commercials and non-commercials have taken profit or delivered on contracts. I do feel this pair will be subjective to strong swings this coming week as which ever side decides to open a position will cause the pair to move that way if filled. other than that i do think the AUD will be a slow moving pair this week and future weeks to come until there is a definitive move in one direction or the other.
Long
by ARegularGuy
EXY (Euro Index) Euro Here on the Euro Index we have a Gartley Pattern that has completed and completed a T1 set up! I think we are going to see PA retrace into the PRZ. From a techinical standpoint. Now on to the COT Data. The COT indicates that the Euro is still a strong buy! The big players are still increasing their positions fueling the trend up on the Euro. Selling the Euro long term right no is probably not the most adviseable. This does not surprise me as the DXY just flipped to a bearish market and the Euro is driving higher. the Euro makes up 50-ish% of the DXY. the follwong is the COT net Data: Commercials: Current== (155k) // previous== (133k) Non-Coms: Current== 117k // previous== 95, 649 I have been slow posting recently becasue as some might have seen i have been saying i have wanted to add fundamentals to my trading and i had a friend of mine here on trading view provide some good reading material on fundamentals. Once i finally finish up some of my readings i will be more active!
TVC:EXYLong
by ARegularGuy
1
DXY (Dollar Index) The Dixie Okay, The King Dollar! we have a bullish crab pattern that has completed it first target. The Crab pattern completed a T1 set up all. PA marched all the way to the 382 and reversed almost not a pip more either. we had a few trades happen above the 382 but not many! This week we could see some good down moves on the dollar, maybe all the way down to the Crab PRZ. This is in part that the sides have switched. The Commercials have started buying the pair overall and the non-commercials are selling which will drive prices lower on the Dollar. With this in mind there is a good chance that the stock market will have a good week this week as the stock indexes are contraian to the DXY. So, all my trades for the dollar this week and maybe for the near future are going to be more short biased. The Net Data is as follows: Commercials- Current== 5,142 // Previous== (5,328) Non-Commercials- Current == (5,344) // Previous== 4,689
TVC:DXYShort
by ARegularGuy
CXY (Canadian Dollar Index) Loonie So on the CXY we have an incomplete Bat Pattern we see PA enterered the PRZ and was severly rejected without completing the pattern. We need the entire box to be tested before the pattern is complete. So, on the COT what we have are the Consumers and Producers buying and selling to eachother. As open interest has increased but the Non-Coms have reduced both their sides respectively while both sides of the commercials have increased thiers. if you were just looking at the Net Positions it would look as if the commercials are stepping to the Zero Line and the Non-Coms are stepping away from the Zero Line, but looking at the Line items the Commercials both have increased their positions, and the Non-Coms have reduced their positions. Now, interestingly enough the Non-Coms spread have increased thier Net-position. Now, normally we dont really pay attention to the spread as they are playing both sides of the plate. For example one company could be buying and selling the same currency. So, the Loonie might be stuck in a range this week so as a harmonic trader the CAD might be a pair I monitor closley as the Harmonic Trading strategy is best in a ranging market. The COT Net Data: Commercials- Current== 24,363 // Previous== 25,110 Non-Coms- Current== (25,486) // Previous== (24,829)
TVC:CXY
by ARegularGuy
3
BXY (British Pound Index) Cable On the Cable we have it where the pair completed a Alternate Bat pattern but not before it tested the Patterns Harmonic Optimal Price. The price gapped down and slid ever since. This is the First time in a few days where there was a bullish day and i do believe there will be more. both sides are stepping closer to the Zero Line and we might see a switch in the next few weeks and see the Pound get stronger. the Cable is currently under the commercials control as theyre the majority buyers and driving prices lower, but again we do see both sides taking profit (non-commercials) or delievering on contracts (commercials). So, with all this being said will all this relief going on we might see the pound rise this week again as correction as both sides figure out if theyre going switch sides or remain the same and drive prices lower. the COT Net Data is as follows: Commercials- current== 29, 064 // previous== 34, 112 Non-Coms- Current== (15, 998) // Previous== (24, 048)
TVC:BXYLong
by ARegularGuy
AXY (Aussie Dollar) Okay, So very interesting stuff on the AXY and their COT report. Both sides have take major steps back and the pair might not be safe to trade this comming week. Earlier this month the RBA decided to keep the interest rate at .25% and not raising the intrest rates any biasis points. so, as to why both sides have closed positions is unsual. the open interest dropped a lot aswell which tells us that both sides either delievered on contracts or took profit. today is known for monday manipulation, so like i said earlier trading the Aussie might not be a good move, as any big player entering their position might cause big waves in the market and casue big swings. what we do see is that Price got rejected off the major swing point and looks as if it might try to retest it. the Aussie should be a slow pair this week and if any moves take place it might be the bigger players placing orders. As far as me i will not be looking at the Aussie Dollar for anysetups this week. The 5 year bond rate for the Aussie is also not doing too much either to attract investors as its trapped in a support zone waiting to complete a harmonic pattern. Net Data- Commercials- Current == 7192 // previous== 43,641 Non-Coms - Current == (6,532) // previous == (36,575)
TVC:AXY
by ARegularGuy
Cocoa on all-important round level - retesting just nowI opened a position on Cocoa. 5year and 15year stacked seasonality favour long right now. Not significantly, but they do. This being said, it is an excellent outlook from a technical perspective. The price slows down as it approaches supsistence tested throughout the years from both sides. It has even worked recently. That time, it was resistance, now I hope it will act as support. ►It slows down as it approaches an important level The important level is strong. Not only that it was tested multiple times but it is also a round number which are more often than not the ones that host the most fights between bulls and bears. ►The level is tested multiple times and is also a round number of 2400 And then, there is already once broken anchored VWAP from above. The one from bottom worked just weeks ago. ►Stacked seasonality 5y and 15y support long to a certain degree ►VWAP from the top is losing respect ◄The only contrarian point is 200 simple average which holds strong. But the price is approaching and bounces are getting smaller. Accumulation below this level usually signifies imminent breakout.
ICEUS:CC1!Long
by OrcChieftain
GBP/ AUD On the Pound Aussie we have a 222 pattern, and right now im waiting for the AMP RSI and HSI to trigger a signal which might Happen here in 7 minutes. Now, on to the fundamentals... the 5 year Pound Bond Yields looks like its wanting to form a double bottom which could attract more investors into the pound if it does actually bring value to the pound. I chose the 5 year bonds as short term investors might look to get in and out and this pattern is on the 1H timeframe. The 5 year Aussie Bonds Yields are in the process of trying to make a Bat Pattern and still has a way to go. and when this happens i can see investors flooding into the Aussie. Now the COT data is interesting both currencies are being driven by the Commercials and both pairs are stepping close to the Zero Line. However, the Pound did have more Favor of selling pressure being relieved. With nearly 18,000 orders of relief. we had 10,000 orders of shorts get taken off the table by the Non-Coms Short for profit taking and we also had 8,000 orders of commercials delievering on their contracts. Now, this pattern might not work out, but the educated guess here out weighs just having technical analysis only. im not looking to take this trade to the moon, but i am looking to capture some pips on the correction before the pound makes another run down.
Long
by ARegularGuy
SXY (Swiss Franc) Swissie So, the Swiss Franc is generally used as a reserve currency. Something different from The Reserve Currency, but similiar. During times of high volatility investors look to throw their money in safe haven currencies like the Swiss to protect from the wild whipsaws of the market. So, here on the swiss there are no Harmonic Patterns to speak of so the COT data will have to work. So, what we have is the Swissie is the Non-Coms took a major step foraward toward the Zero Line. The commercials have further increased their longs to 16,366 which is a 1,934 increase from 14,432 and the Non-Coms are really increasing their shorts by double. We went from 4,375 to 8,697 orders short which is an increase of 4,322. Now on to the Net data: the Commercials: current- (4,280) // Previous- (7,754) Non-Coms Current- 1,766 // Previous- 8,989 So as you can see we have taken major steps to the zero line especially in regards to the Non-Coms which i think the Swiss' bull run is coming to an end, and it might be wise to plan on shorting the Swiss here pretty soon.
TVC:SXY
by ARegularGuy
JXY (Yen Index) On the Yen Index we are seeing some play off the 50%. there are no Harmonic Patterns currently on the Index but off the Fibo. so for the monday trap move we can have a move up to the 50 and then reverse. The Commercials have increased their longs by 10,000 orders. Now, an interesting thing on the Non-Coms side of things is that the Shorts marginally increased thier side while the Longs probably took profit or recorded their loses. they decreased their position (13,096) which leaves room for downward momentum with ease. So again there is not much room for PA to touch the 50% retrace then I do see price moving down quite rapidly! on to the Net Data Commercials- Current = (13,302) // previous (28,488) Non-Coms- Current- 17,462 // previous- 32,579 from the net positions it looks like the sides are stepping closer to the Zero Line
TVC:JXYShort
by ARegularGuy
EXY (Euro Index) The Euro backs the Dollar Index (DXY) by something of 50 something percent on the chart we see a gartley pattern that has completed and on the way down. Now Scott Carney, whom i think is next chartist genius next to Gann, Elliot, Dow, and Gartley. He was able to take all their readings and somehow make one of the most traded or talked about trading systems in the world. so much so tradingview teamed up with him yeas ago to help develop the harmonics drawings tool i use today, and the craziest thing about it is he came out with system in his early 30's. and what makes this even better is he is still alive running harmonic trader.com. enough about Scott Carney i think that the pattern is completing a type 1 setup. So what im thinkning is Monday we will move to the 382 tuesday indecesion candle rest of the week retrace to the PRZ and the week after we might see a bigger move down. the fundamental data the COT The Commercial Shorts are drvining the prices of the euro HIGH we a whopping 20,000 orders short!!! the longs to stop price was only a 1/5 of what the shorts did. the Non-Coms are increasing their longs by 10,000 orders driving prices way higher insync with the commercials. so here is the net data Commercials- Current= (133,718) // Previous= (117,198) Non-Commercials- Current= 95, 649 // Previous= 81,240 Needless to say any buys on the Euro is a good decesion, prices are still going higer and higher. any dips in price are just that a Dip. might be an oppritunity to hop on a speeding train. i would not hold on to this pattern longer than the 382 retracement of the pattern
TVC:EXYShort
by ARegularGuy
DXY (Dollar Index) Here on the Dollar Index we have a deep crab pattern (it was drawn on the smaller timeframes). price came down to the HOP and was rejected! Now what we can see (and will be backed by the COT data later in the post) is the dollar fall a bit more to retest the level and might have a rebound. Now, on to the COT data. we have the Commercials increasing thier longs while the Non-Coms are selling the supply to those buyers driving price down. the Longs increased thier longs by 3600 orders and the non-comms increased thier shorts by a whopping 6500 orders. So, there is a good chance this pattern will fail. but again i do expect the dollar to retreat to the HOP again before it makes a decesion on what way it wants to go. so here is the net data: Commercials: Current- (5,328) // previous- (8867) Non- Coms Current- 4689 // previous- 8,258 So, all in all any positions buying the dollar is illadvised still hold on to the shorts if you have them becasue i think this is a minor correction we currently see on the charts. so we might see some monday manipulation with price going up possibly stalling out tuesday and possible reverse wednesday.
TVC:DXY
by ARegularGuy
CXY (Canadian Dollar Index) Loonie Okay, here is why I decided to learn and study the COT. the pattern is a bearish bat pattern with a permissible tolerance of 3% of the B-point. Its a gorgeous pattern and could possibly go long term; however, i dont see it happeneing. The pattern is showing a sell and the COT which reports the big players positions a potential buy. so i would say approach the CAD with caution. while this pair transitions. The COT report shows us that the Loonie Tune players are stepping closer to the Zero line again this week. Indicating that the Loonie could enter a Bullish trend. Now this makes sense as we're enteing the Summer Months here in the US and above the equator (or however you spell it) so travel is going to increase. Now, SARS 2 is running amuck and not being checked, the government here in the US is trying to tighten down restrictions, but i dont see the American People obeying such orders too much longer. I dont think we will ever truly know the mortality rate of SARS 2 in the US as they decided to provide hospitals with additional funding for SARS 2 related treatments so it seems like someone can test postitve but die from a carcrash and the hospital will code it as a COVID-19 related death to earn some extra money. I suspect this is happeneing all over the world and so i truly think the numbers are highly influxed. until the funding stops we will never know. so maybe in a few years when the extra funding has stopped we will see the true numbers and thats not including the shotty testing methods and the questionable regaents being used. with all that being said... travel is going to pick up LOL and its no seceret that the Canadians are exporting more than maple syrup. Their #1 export is oil and they sell the majority to us the US. Oil is struggling but is finding its footing. So, therefore, the Loonie will too. here is the COT Data the Commercials on the Producers and Consumers have reduced thier positions and have taken a decent step closer to the Zero line while the Non-Commercials are marching forward in stride as well. the Comercial Net Data the Current= 25,110 // the previous = 32,240 the non-commercial current= (24,829) // previous = (33,138) so, we can clearly see the sides are marching closer and closer to the Zero line; therefore the Loonie, will get stronger. So, the pattern might be a good setup for catching some high risk manipulation pips or we could see this as relief of the commercials allowing PA to renter the PRZ for it to truly drive down. But, again with the summer here and travel picking up regardless of travel restrictions i see oil picking up and so will the Canadian Dollar.
TVC:CXYShort
by ARegularGuy
AXY (Aussie Dollar Index) Ok, the Aussie currently is currently getting rejected from the major resistance level. there is no real harmonic pattern to draw so here is the COT analysis. i think the aussie might be making moves to switch sides the open interest increased by 3500 orders the Commercial Longs reduced their positions by 4500 orders while the commercial shorts increased their orders by 5600 orders. So, unlike The Cables index the BXY the AXY looks to be adding orders to their respective opposite sides looking to switch sides. the Non-Commercials are looking at the same. NonCom longs increased their position long by 3300 orders while the shorts reduced thier side by 800 orders. Now lets remember the Non-Commercials are for profit and pay taxes as such, to where the Commercials are hedging for rate locks and profit protection from actual business they conduct inter-business-ly (if thats even a word) so as it stands for the Aussie the Net numbers are as follows: Commercials- Current = 43,641 // Previous = 53,852 Non-Coms - Current= (36,575) // Previous- (40,791) So, i reckon if you have any trades against the Aussie it might be a wise decesion to close them out and book profit or take small loss, i dont see the Aussie Weakening this coming week. we might see some minor drawdown but thats about the extent of it the the commercials are switching sides with the non-commercials. remember this is a long process becasue big business and banks just cant switch sides over-night it would crash the world economy so look at it as each week they take a big step toward the Zero Line and then swich sides. during this process we will see that pair get stronger and stronger and before you know it youre in a bull trend when everyone can see it then its time to switch sides again.
TVC:AXYLong
by ARegularGuy
BXY (British Pound) Here we have the BXY or the Pound Index. Im not gonna pretend i know what curriencies make up the BXY its worth a google if you want to know. But what we have here Is an Alternate bat pattern that tested the HOP and was rejected. I am gussing the pattern will drive down to the 382 retracement of this pattern and then start moving up. I say this becasue when you look at the COT report the Commercials reduced their positions from 136k orders to 127k orders while the shorts marginally increased theirs about 1,600 orders. the Non-Commercials, which are the fuel for the trend, reduced their short side by 10k orders bringing their value from 63,000 short to about 52,900 short. this is a siginificant deal. so when you look at the net positions for both which is what most COT traders do then we have the following stats for The Cable... Commercials Current= 34,112 // previous = 44,403 Non-Commercials Current = (24,048) // Previous= (36,044) I think this is nothing more than the commercials delievering on contracts and the Non-Commercials taking profit. when you look at the COT index both sides were getting pretty close to the buy/ sell extremes respectively. So, all in all what i think we will see is price drive down to the 382 of this pattern monday possibly tuesday some minor consolidation tuesday possibly wednesday and some upward movement to finish out the week. So, i suggest any shorts on any pound trades clear them and wait for another chance to sell the pound again. I say this, becasue on the Commercial short side there were no large orders indicating a drive for a change in direction and you definetly dont see the profiteers loading up on the long side for the Non-Commercials. For my friends across the pond what do you guys have going on around this time of year, becasue i would like to know for future speculation. why would any big businesses in the UK be hedging against the pound to lock in a rate? like a rainy season, or dry season, major crop planting anything helps... thanks for reading!
TVC:BXYShort
by ARegularGuy
GBP/ USD Here on the Pound Dollar (GBP/ USD) we have an Bearish Alternate Bat pattern. Honestly i drew this pattern earlier this week and i cant remember the demensions. With the COT datat though this is an interesting pair. The dollar index is weakening and the Pound is already bearish. the current stats are (-8 867) and previous stats (-16 438) and these are the Net stats for the Commercials the current Non-Commercial are 8 258 and the previous 14 799 suggesting that the DXY is still in bullish terriroty but dramatically coming out.
Short
by ARegularGuy
GBP/ CHF On the Pound we have a Bearish Bat Pattern the top of the prz is the CD Leg max the 2.618 and the 886 is on the lower side. we see that price shot right through the PRZ and created a big wick PA came right to the HOP level of this pattern and was rejected. i wanna see the RSI go a bit lower and i do wanna see the HSI on the other side and in the upper extreme coming down. the COT Fundamental side of this is the Pound is losing strength becasue the commercials are building more orders on the long side which means price is driving lower and the Non-Commercials are driving the bus lower. With the open interest increasing. the CHF is gaining strength so i would like to hold this trade and ride the wave down. i watched this pair all week and broke even on my smaller pattern. it almost hit my TP1 and now waiting for the re-entry off this pattern.
Short
by ARegularGuy