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Pullback to 85K for sellingMorning folks, So, everything goes with the plan - nothing to change on major picture. We keep our bearish view on BTC and now consider 68-74K area as the next destination point. But this could take a few weeks. In fact, previous 68K top also will be a big test. Downside break will open road to 52-55K. While if BTC will be able to stay in 70-80K range, it will keep long term bullish context. It should be interesting... Meantime, BTC once again hits oversold areas as on weekly as on daily charts. As we promised - D. Trump verbal boost lasted just 2 days and was reversed down. We see some intention market manipulations from D. Trump administration but this is not the subject for this update. In short-term - 2-3 days BTC needs to relief oversold pressure, so minor bounce is quite possible. For example, based on "222" pattern on 1H chart we could see attempt to bounce up from 79K and up to 84-85K area. Those who wants to sell - that might be the chance. For now I mark this update as bullish, because of suggested bounce. But our longer term view remains bearish still.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Yen Benefits from Dollar's Broad RetreatThe Japanese yen held around 149 per dollar, its strongest in five months, benefiting from the dollar’s decline on a stronger euro and Trump’s tariff policies. His selective tariff exemptions and retaliatory measures weakened the dollar further. Domestically, BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida suggested possible rate hikes if economic projections align but emphasized that Japan’s monetary conditions remain highly accommodative, with only minimal reductions in government bond holdings. Key resistance is at 152.00, with further levels at 154.90 and 156.00. Support stands at 147.10, followed by 145.80 and 143.00.
by ChartMage
Bearish until 98-100K Morning folks, So, Old Donny euphoria was over on the next day, as we've suggested. ETH was even worse than BTC... And we're skeptic on coming Crypto Summit tomorrow. What could happen in three days? A lot of speech and empty promises definitely will sound, but where the real deals? Recently. S. Lummis said that BTC Reserve issue is still under question and no guarantees that it will be formed. That's it... Nothing is prepared for BTC Reserve forming. Coming D. Trump talks could shake the market, but that will be only emotions. Speaking practically, we suggest that until BTC stands under 98-100K area - context remains bearish. We see a few patterns, and this butterfly one of them. If you want to go short - this is the point that you have to think about. Based on the butterfly, the risk is not too big. If even we will get "222" Sell - setup remains bearish, because upside AB=CD agrees with daily Fib resistance level. Only upside breakout of 98-99K will give BTC theoretical chances to start wobbling in 100-108K range. Thus, for now we're not ready to speak about BTC buying. Albeit you want to make a bet on Summing euphoria tomorrow.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Verbal intervention was great but what's on the back?Morning folks, So, the pullback that we were waiting for is done. Although we thought that it will be driven by some natural forces and reasons. The way how it has happened and by what factors make us to be caution on its perspectives. Indeed, it was just verbal intervention from D. Trump. It had bad week - scandal in White House with Zelensky, stocks are falling, crypto are falling, inflation expectations are raising, March debt ceil and shutdown is almost here, EU "allies" do not want to work together... So, to say couple of words and pump the market is not a bad idea at all. But, what is on the back? Nothing. Special Committee will make Reserve report only by July. I'm sure on crypto Summit this week we also will hear a lot of bravery speeches, but this is just words. This is a reason why we do not want to buy BTC now and prefer to watch for reversal signs around our resistance 96-97K area. Sooner or later but fundamentals should return control over the market. I do not have yet the specific picture but, since we have strong upside momentum - it should fade and appearing, say H&S or butterfly pattern, together with completion upside XOP target seems as great combination. Once this patterns will be formed, we could try to use it for short entry.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
70K doesn't look impossible nowMorning folks, So, our trading plan worked just great - DRPO on weekly in fact hit 81-82K, so it's minimal target is done. In fact, BTC, as a Gold now are victims of massive sell-off on stock market. Investors meet margin calls and urgently need cash to fill it back to initial level. That's why they sell everything that they could to get the money. While this process will be underway - BTC remains under pressure. Not occasionally as insiders as Buffett were sitting on cash bags. Today BTC is oversold. So we do not consider any new shorts and prefer to get the rally to sell into. Supposedly 92.50-92.85 resistance looks interesting for this. As market probably will close below Dec lows, this is bad for long-term picture and former 70K top might be re-tested in perspective of a few weeks.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
2
btc finds 200 ema support, whats next?As I have been posting in these "Ideas" for the past few weeks about market direction and where the price for BTC will go. It now has come to pass where the 200 EMA has been tested and support has been found, It however has not generated any relief among buyer sentiment unable to push price above the previous days close leaving the digital asset to continue to bleed out and cause positions from all the 93k Bulls to liquidate. Its a shame people cannot make the connection that the only way price can go higher is to go lower in a market. That Is why I am going to warn people about where we may go , I believe the 200 EMA will be tested again and if support is broken it will send is into the low 70k area where there are open orders and It is possible this may happen. The Bull market support band is the 200EMA however there may be institutional money that may drive us down to cause massive liquidations and fear and panic among those holding bags while greed causes big players to push more into the fringe of where we can maintain a recovery. Watch for a retest of the 200EMA . which is a bit of a fuzzy zone , use the high and low to denote the area for support as well as keep an eye on the RSI and CCI , we are also watching on balance volume drop off which is not a great sign that there is market confidence however this will play out over the weekly and the weekly candle will start to materialize in the next few days.
by dasBoot
1
Pain or gainMorning folks, So, everything goes accurately with the plan - our 1H H&S is ready to start. Even small "222" Buy already has been formed on the bottom. So, if you would like to buy - this is the point where you have to decide. Upside target is 100.5-101.2K. At the same time - don't forget that the H&S has to be considered in context of our big bearish weekly DRPO Sell pattern. If H&S will be completed at 101K - we consider it as a chance to get the short position at better price. Conversely, if BTC starts dropping and H&S start failing. It could mean that downside action starts immediately. Other words speaking, if BTC will show upside action at all - it has to start it right now. Otherwise, be prepared for collapse. I mark this setup as a bullish, because of H&S. But in general we have mid term bearish view. H&S is just a retracement step before downside action.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
Another attempt for the 101-102K bounceMorning folks, So market stands in the narrow range for the 3rd week already and not leaving hopes to show the bounce up to 101-102K area. Last attempt (in the way of cup pattern that we've discussed last time) has failed. We don't care about it because mostly stay focused on weekly bearish DRPO pattern. Thus, any bounce here we consider first as a chance to Sell. And only second as a possible upside continuation. For now BTC is trying to make an another attempt and form reverse H&S pattern on 1H chart. So target remains the same 101-102K. We have no intention to go long right now. But, if you trade intraday or just search chances to buy - maybe be this setup might be useful to you. Supposedly 96K is an area where decision on position taking has to be made. I keep the "bearish" mark for this setup. But, as now as last time - the bounce to 101-102K area are not excluded.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Bearish context holds. Pullback to 101-102KMorning folks, A recent few sessions have rather narrow range, so we have little changes since our last discussion. We have confirmed DRPO "Sell" pattern on weekly chart, so we keep bearish general view on BTC, with potential downside target around 80-81K. This also makes us to not consider any long positions. If even upside bounce will happen - we try to use this rally for short entry later. Still for intraday traders, if you want to buy BTC, here is some thoughts. First is, and actually why we stay away from longs for now - take a look, after impressive jump BTC stands too long in sideways action. This is not good for bullish scenario. Now it seems that something like "Cup" or reverse H&S pattern is still forming here. So if you finally will decide to buy - currently is the point where you have to make a decision on entry. Because BTC has to start upside action right now, right from this point or it will not start it at all and drop. We suggest that 101-102K is an area where it would be better to out. I mark this update as bearish in a row with our major view, but as we've said 101-102 pullback is not excluded.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
No longs by far. 90-92K stands in focusMorning folks, Last time we were speaking about possible upside bounce to ~102.5K area. But BTC has failed three attempts to move out from support level where it stands. Despite that upside momentum was not bad. With the recent high CPI on the table and weekly DRPO "Sell" pattern on the back, we suggest that downside action could start at any time. First target will be ~90-92K area just because this is daily oversold. Weekly pattern suggest target around 80-81K. By this reason we do not consider any new intraday longs by far. Besides, on daily chart today we could get bearish grabber that supports adea of 90-92K lows level.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Sive-Morten
Tricks around 102.4K targetMorning folks, So, our weekly bearish DRPO "Sell" pattern has been confirmed. It means that until market either complete its 81K target or remains under 102.5K its invalidation point - this pattern presents the risk for the bulls. With all this stuff on the table we make two decisions. First is - we cut potential upside target down to 102.4K area by two reasons. First - this is 0.618 expansion and it agrees with major 5/8 resistance level. Second - this is invalidation point of weekly DRPO "Sell" pattern. So, conclusion is follows. For long-term traders we suggest to not consider any new long positions until DRPO is valid. For short entry with DRPO - keep an eye on 102.5K area. For intraday traders we suggest that long position is still acceptable but with the new 102.4K target and very tight stop - just under 94K lows. Market has to start upside action now. If it will not happen, then it will not happen at all and weekly DRPO will start working. I mark this setup as "Bullish" because of 102.4 target. But, in general we have bearish view until DRPO stands in place.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten
107.60KMorning folks, So, BTC has shown the pullback that we've discussed, but it was even stronger. Thus, we had have to postpone our plans for short entry. Besides, now situation stands so that our weekly pattern (DRPO "Sell") might not be confirmed this week. To keep it simple - no new shorts by far. For now we focus only on intraday setups. For example, on 4H chart. If we could to use 8H or 10H chart instead, then we could see nice big bullish engulfing pattern. As usual it has AB=CD upside target, which is around 107.5K for now. "C" point lows seems to be a vital area for this setup, just because this is 5/8 support and breakout of 95K level will change everything here. So, decision on entry has to be made fast, while price is not too far from vital area.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Sive-Morten