Daily Market Analysis - Thursday June 15, 2023Market Analysis: Global shares decline, dollar recovers as Fed pauses rate hikes; ECB and BOJ meetings awaited.
Key events on the economic calendar include:
New Zealand GDP (QoQ) for the first quarter.
Eurozone Deposit Facility Rate announcement for June.
Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision for June.
US Core Retail Sales (MoM) data for May.
US Initial Jobless Claims report.
US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for June.
US Retail Sales (MoM) data for May.
Eurozone ECB Press Conference.
On Wednesday, global stock markets saw a decline, while the US dollar managed to regain some of its losses. This came after the US Federal Reserve, as expected, announced a pause in its interest rate hikes. However, the central bank also hinted at the possibility of raising rates by an additional 0.5% before the end of the year.
During its recent two-day meeting, the Federal Reserve presented new economic projections that indicated a potential 0.5% increase in borrowing costs by the end of 2023. This projection was based on a stronger-than-expected economy and a slower decline in inflation.
US Fed funds rate
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), responsible for determining interest rates, unanimously stated in its policy statement that maintaining the current target interest rate range during this meeting would allow the committee to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy.
While it was widely anticipated that the US Federal Reserve would pause its rate hikes, the focus shifted to the communication surrounding potential future increases. In a surprising twist, the participants of the FOMC adopted a more hawkish stance. The median forecast for the end of 2023 regarding the Federal Funds rate was revised upward by 50 basis points, now ranging from 5.50% to 5.75%.
SPX NASDAQ and DJI indices daily chart
Following the announcement, the closing results of the stock market exhibited a mixed picture. The Dow Jones index concluded the day with a decline of over 230 points, while the S&P 500 index managed to secure a modest gain of 0.1%. The Nasdaq index, on the other hand, experienced a more significant increase of 0.4%. Notably, the Nasdaq Composite index was primarily driven by the positive performance of AI-related stocks, including Nvidia and AMD.
In addition to the stock market movements, Wednesday started with Bitcoin surpassing the $26,000 milestone. However, it retraced shortly afterward and reached a 24-hour low of $25,791. Analysts are speculating that it may potentially drop further to $25,000. These sentiments are influenced by ongoing discussions on cryptocurrency regulation, which have been dominating the news recently.
BTC/USD daily chart
On the flip side, gold prices initially saw an uptick, reaching $1,959 per ounce during the session. However, as Asian traders kickstart their day, the price of gold has resumed its downward trajectory, edging closer to the $1,930 level. This downward movement can be attributed to the hawkish stance of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which has bolstered the United States Dollar (USD). The prevailing market sentiment currently favors the USD, consequently exerting downward pressure on the price of gold.
XAU/USD daily chart
The US dollar has demonstrated a decline against multiple currencies, resulting in a 0.32% drop in the DXY index. Among the currencies, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) experienced the most notable movement, surging by over one percent and reaching a three-week high at $0.6211. Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) and the British Pound (GBP) registered more modest gains, each recording an increase of 0.39%.
NZD/USD daily chart
Despite the release of favorable exports and machinery orders data, the Japanese yen encountered a 0.9% decline, emerging as the primary loser in the Asian markets.
Investor focus was predominantly directed towards the upcoming Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting scheduled for Friday. It is widely expected that the central bank will maintain its accommodative monetary policy stance to bolster domestic economic growth. This anticipated approach is anticipated to have a favorable influence on Japanese stocks.
USD/JPY daily chart
Nevertheless, the Japanese yen is expected to encounter further selling pressure as interest rates rise in other regions, diminishing its appeal.
Bank of Japan (BOJ) officials, including the newly appointed Governor Kazuo Ueda, have expressed their intention to maintain the bank's yield curve control policy to provide support to the domestic economy.
Furthermore, the diminished anticipation of Japanese government intervention in stabilizing currency markets has contributed to the yen's weakening. While officials have issued verbal warnings, no concrete actions have been taken thus far.
Currently, traders are closely watching the upcoming monetary policy announcements from the European Central Bank (ECB), scheduled for later in the day at 12:15 GMT. It is widely anticipated that the ECB will implement a 25 basis points increase in key rates. However, the Staff Economic Projections and the subsequent press conference by President Christine Lagarde will play a crucial role in shaping future policy direction.
Market expectations indicate that interest rates will likely reach their peak in July, with speculation of an additional rate hike following June's increase, followed by a potential pause in September. If the ECB adopts a more hawkish stance by implementing a rate hike, it is expected to exert additional selling pressure on the price of gold.
Dailyanalysis
BTC/USDT 4H - Targets and StoplossHello everyone, let's take a look at the 4H BTC to USDT chart as you can see that the price has moved up from the local downtrend channel.
Let's start by setting goals for the near future that we can take into account:
T1 = $26,132
T2 = zone from $26383 to $26626
AND
T3 = $26970
Now let's move on to the stop loss in case the market goes down further:
SL1 = $25,951 to $25,655 zone
SL2 = $25413
AND
SL3 = $25,178
Looking at the CHOP indicator, we see that there is a lot of energy on the 4H interval, the MACD indicates a local uptrend, and the RSI is moving sideways around the middle of the range, which makes it difficult to clearly choose the direction of movement.
BNB/USDT Is this the end of the current correction?Hello everyone, I invite you to review the BNB chart in pair to USDT, taking into account the one-day interval. As we can see, the price has broken out of the uptrend line. We also see that we moved the EMA Cross 200 for a while, however, after breaking this strong support, we received a strong drop in price, down to a very strong 0.786 Fib support at $222.8. Should the current support fail to hold the price, we will be able to see the price drop further around the $184.6 support.
Looking the other way, we can similarly identify the resistance points that the price has to face. And here we can see that we have now hit the first resistance at $248.8 which for now bnb has no strength to break through then we have the second resistance at $288.6 the next resistance at $322.1 then the fourth resistance very strong resistance at $354.3.
The CHOP index indicates that the energy has been used up and is slowly increasing, the MACD indicates a continuation of the downtrend, but with a visible flattening after the last decline, while the RSI recorded a strong rebound that definitely broke the lower limit of the range and now we see a return to this limit and a large scope for future price increases.
BNB/USDT 4HInterval Targets and StoplossHello everyone, let's look at the BNB to USDT chart on a 4-hour time frame. As you can see, the price is moving above the local downtrend line.
Let's start by setting goals for the near future that we can take into account:
T1 = $240.7
T2 = $244.5
T3 = $247
T4 = $251
AND
T5 = $255.5
Now let's move on to the stop loss in case the market goes down further:
SL1 = $231.8
SL2 = $221.9
SL3 = $214.3
AND
SL4 = $206.3
Looking at the CHOP indicator, we see that there is still energy to continue the move, MACD indicates a local uptrend, while the RSI has been moving below the lower border for a long time and now we are approaching the middle of the range with room for further growth.
XRP/USDT 4HInterval check the shortterm situationHello everyone, I invite you to take a short-term look at the XRP chart this time on a four-hour interval. As we can see, the price, despite the general market correction, XRP remains above the local uptrend line.
Let's start by marking the places of support for the price and we see that we first have support at $0.50, but if the price goes lower, we have another support at $0.48, then at $0.46 and another support at $0.46 priced at $0.43.
Looking the other way, we can similarly determine the places of resistance that the price has to face. And here we see that the price is currently approaching the resistance at $0.52. We continue to have strong resistance at $0.54, once the price breaks it, it will move towards resistance at $0.55 and then $0.58.
As we can see, the price had a bigger drop, but quickly returned above the EMA Cross 200, thus maintaining the upward trend.
The CHOP index indicates that the energy is slowly gaining strength, the MACD indicates a return to the local uptrend, while the RSI has returned to the upper part of the range and it is worth watching here because when the indicator approaches the upper limit, we will see a correction on the xrp price.
Daily ETH 4HChart - resistance and supportHello everyone, let's look at the ETH to USDT chart on the 4-hour timeframe. As you can see, the price is moving below the local downtrend line.
Let's start with the support line and as you can see the first support in the near future is $1730, if the support is broken then the next support is $1703, $1681 and $1660.
Now let's move on to the resistance line, as you can see the first resistance is $1762, if you break it, the next resistance will be $1776, the third $1790 and $1811.
Looking at the CHOP indicator, we see that the energy has been used, the MACD is close to trending upwards, while the RSI is moving at the lower end of the range, which may give the price an upward rebound in the coming hours.
Daily BTC 4HChart - resistance and supportHello everyone, let's look at the BTC to USDT chart on a 4-hour time frame. As you can see, the price is moving below the local downtrend line.
Let's start with the support line and as you can see the first support in the near future is $25686, if the support is broken then the next support is $25217 and $23890.
Now let's move on to the resistance line, as you can see the first resistance is $26,147, if it breaks down, the next resistance will be $26,389, the third resistance will be $26,631, the fourth $26,968 and the fifth $55,221.
Looking at the CHOP indicator, we see that the energy has been used, the MACD is close to trending upwards, while the RSI is rebounding but there is still room for the price to move up in the coming hours.
Daily ETH 4HChart - resistance and supportHello everyone, let's look at the ETH to USDT chart on the 4-hour timeframe. As you can see, the price is holding at the local uptrend line.
Let's start with the support line and as you can see the first support in the near future is $1843, if the support is broken then the next support is $1832, $1823 and $1813.
Now let's move on to the resistance line, as you can see the first resistance is $1849, if you manage to break it, the next resistance will be $1866, $1881 and $1895.
Looking at the CHOP indicator, we see that the energy is gathering strength, the MACD is on the verge of returning to the local pattern trend, and the RSI is moving in the lower part of the range one closer to the center, which makes it difficult to clearly determine the direction of the price in the short term.
Daily BTC 1DChart - resistance and supportHello everyone, I invite you to check the current situation on BTC in pair to USDT, taking into account the one-day interval. First, we will use the yellow line to mark the uptrend line that the price is moving at the moment. Locally, we can mark the downtrend channel with blue lines.
Now we can move on to marking the places of support in case of returning to the correction. And here we see that the first support is at $26480 which the price is currently based on, then we have the first strong support at $25261 which held the price in the recent rebound, then the third support at $24023 and then the very strong support at $24023 $22,350.
Looking the other way, in a similar way, using the fib retracement tool, we can determine the places of resistance. First, we will mark a very strong resistance zone from $28665 to $29463, only when the price breaks it will we move towards the resistance at $30502, and then when the price breaks it, it will open the way towards the resistance at $33426.
Please note the CHOP index which indicates that there is still a lot of energy for the upcoming moves, the MACD indicator indicates a return to the downtrend, while the RSI is moving in the lower part of the range, but with room for the price to go a little lower.
Daily BTC 4HChart - resistance and supportHello everyone, let's look at the BTC to USDT chart on a 4-hour timeframe. As you can see, the price is moving below the local downtrend line.
Let's start with the support line and as you can see the first support in the near future is $25476, if the support is broken then the next support is $25017 and $24654.
Now let's move to the resistance line, as you can see the first resistance is $26327, if you manage to break it, the next resistance will be $26649, $26941 and $27375.
Looking at the CHOP indicator, we see that the energy has been used, the MACD indicates a continuation in the downtrend, while the RSI shows an increase, however, in the coming hours, we can still see the price increase.
2023.6.5 Daily European Perspective USDX is strengthening!2023.6.5 Daily European Perspective USDX is strengthening!
Hello, I'm Older Duan. Today is Monday, June 5 2023.
Now it's 16pm Beijing time.
Let me give you a quick comment on the technical forms of the current international mainstream varieties!
First, what we see is the daily graph of the dollar index.
As shown in the figure, the US dollar index started to strengthen again last Friday, and today is the fourth time in recent history that it has tested the strong pressure on the daily line of 165MA (104.39)!
Now, let's look at gold.
Now you can see the daily chart of gold.
The figure superimposes the combination of gold's recent bottom-up golden section and Fibonacci parameter mean square!
As shown in the figure, the decline of gold last Friday and today has swallowed up the increase of last week! So, for the rest of today, the opening price of the previous week's line (1942.7 US dollars) can be used as an important point for intraday operations! Above this point, bulls dominate; Below this point, bears dominate!
Let's take a look at American crude oil.
What you are now seeing is 4-hour level candle chart of US crude oil. The graph superimposes the recent bottom-up golden section of US crude oil and the Fibonacci parameter mean square combination!
As shown in the figure, US crude oil hit a recent high above $74 due to the stimulation of the news! So, for the rest of today, just use the daily level of 55MA (74.35 US dollars) as an important point for intraday operations! Above this point, bulls dominate; Below this point, bears dominate!
Let's look at EURUSD.
What you can see now is the daily chart of EURUSD.
The figure superimposes the combination of European and American currencies against the recent bottom of the golden section and Fibonacci parameter mean square!
As shown in the figure, European and American currencies are currently engaged in a long short battle against the opening price of the first trading day of this month (1.06926)! So for the continuation period today, just use this position as an important point for operation during the day! Above this position, bulls dominate; Under this position, bears dominate!
Finally, let's take a look at GBPUSD.
Now you can see the daily chart of GBPUSD.
The figure superimposes the combination of the recent bottom of the GBPUSD against the golden section and the Fibonacci parameter mean square!
As shown in the figure, the pound US currency is currently engaged in a long short competition near the opening price (1.24034) on the last trading day of last month! So for the continuation period today, just use this position as an important point for operation during the day! Above this point, bulls dominate; Below this point, bears dominate!
Well, the above is a quick inventory of the technical forms of the international mainstream varieties in today's European period!
Special reminder, Today is Monday, and the impact of last Friday's big non agricultural data market will continue until tomorrow! Please pay attention to the risks!
Im Older Duan. Wish you happy win . Goodbye!
Daily BTC 1DChart - resistance and supportHello everyone, let's look at the BTC to USDT chart on a single day timeframe. As you can see, the price is moving below the downtrend line.
Let's start with determining the support line and here in the first place it is worth marking the support zone from $ 26858 to $ 26357, if the support is broken then the next support is $ 25864 and $ 25170.
Now let's move on to the resistance line, as you can see the first resistance is $27494, if you manage to break it, the next resistance will be $27811, $28580 and $28129.
Looking at the CHOP indicator, we see that there is still a lot of energy for the move, MACD, despite the corrections, remains in an uptrend, while the RSI is moving around the middle of the range, which makes it difficult to clearly determine the direction of the move.
BNB/USDT 4HInterval Resistance and SupportHello everyone, let's look at the BNB to USDT chart on a 4-hour time frame. As you can see, the price is moving below the local downtrend line.
Let's start with the support line and as you can see the first support that is currently holding the price is $305.9, if the support is broken then the next support is $298.6, $292.9 and $287.1.
Now let's move on to the resistance line, as you can see the first resistance is $313.1, if you manage to break it, the next resistance will be $320.4, $326.3 and $332.6.
Looking at the CHOP indicator, we see that there is a lot of energy for the upcoming move, the MACD indicates that the local uptrend is maintained, while the RSI is in the lower part, although the price may go a little lower, there is a lot of room for growth.
XRP/USDT 4HInterval check the current situationHello everyone, I invite you to review the chart of XRP in pair to USDT, on a four-hour interval. First, we will use the blue lines to mark the uptrend channel in which the price has been moving locally since it exited the downtrend line marked with the yellow line.
Moving on, we can move on to marking support areas when we start a larger correction. And here the first support is at the price of $0.50, the second support is at the price of $0.48, the third support is at the price of $0.47, and then we have the strength
Looking the other way, we see that the price has hit the resistance at $0.52, then we have the resistance at $0.55, and when we manage to break it, we will move towards the resistance at $0.58
Please look at the CHOP index, which indicates that we have a lot of energy for the upcoming move, MACD indicates that we are on the verge of changing the trend to an upward trend, while the RSI, despite the rebound, we are at the upper limit, which may lead to another correction of the price.
Daily ETH 4HChart - resistance and supportHello everyone, I invite you to review the chart of ETH in pair to USDT, on a four-hour interval. First, we will use the yellow line to mark the downtrend line from which the price went up. At this point, it is worth checking how the EMA Cross 200 is going and as we can see, the EMA Cross 200 kept the price in an uptrend.
Now let's move on to marking the places of support. We will use the Fib Retracement tool to mark the support, and here we can mark the support zone from $1883 to $1856, the lower border of which is just at the EMA cross 200. Then we can mark the second strong support zone from 0.618 fib to 0.786 fib, which gives us a range priced from $1810 to $1780.
Looking the other way, we can also mark the places where the price should encounter resistance on the way to increases. And here we have the first very strong resistance at the price of $ 1941, going further we have a strong resistance at the price of $ 1987 and then the price will move in the direction of the resistance at $ 2055
The CHOP index indicates that we have a lot of energy for the upcoming move. The MACD indicator indicates a transition to a local uptrend. On the other hand, on the RSI we see an increase to the upper part of the range, but there is still some room left for the price to go a little higher in the coming hours.
Daily BTC 4HChart - resistance and supportHello everyone, let's look at the BTC to USDT chart on a 4-hour timeframe. As you can see, the price is moving above the local uptrend line.
Let's start with the support line and as you can see the first support in the near future is $27659, if the support is broken then the next support is $27461, $27184 and $26837.
Now let's move to the resistance line, as you can see the first resistance is $28129, if you manage to break it, the next resistance will be $28509, $28816 and $29113.
Looking at the CHOP indicator, we see that the energy is gathering strength, the MACD indicates entering a local downtrend, while the RSI has a rebound, but there is room for the price to go a little lower in the coming hours.
Daily BTC 4HChart - resistance and supportHello everyone, let's look at the BTC to USDT chart on a 4-hour timeframe. As you can see, the price is fighting for an upward exit from the local sideways trend channel.
Let's start with drawing a support line, but here we will first mark a strong support zone from $26541 to $26209, when the price drops below we have another support at $25803.
Now let's move to the resistance line, as you can see the first resistance is $27792, if you manage to break it the next resistance will be $28273 and $28966.
Looking at the CHOP indicator, we see that the energy has been used in the current increase, the MACD confirms the local uptrend, while the RSI shows that the indicator has crossed the upper limit, which may indicate a rebound in the near future.
Daily ETH 4HChart - resistance and supportHello everyone, let's look at the ETH to USDT chart on the 4-hour timeframe. As you can see, the price is moving above the local downtrend line.
Let's start with the support line and as you can see the first support in the near future is $1812, if the support is broken then the next support is $1796, $1782 and $1769.
Now let's go to the resistance line, as you can see the first resistance is $1825, if you manage to break it the next resistance will be $1841 and then the third resistance at $1891.
Looking at the CHOP indicator, we see that there is energy for further movement, the MACD maintains the local uptrend, while the RSI has a small rebound, which creates room for a future price increase.
BNB/USDT 1DInterval Resistance and SupportHello everyone, welcome to the BNB vs USDT chart review. As we can see, the price has moved downwards from the uptrend line, while currently we will use the blue lines to mark the downtrend channel in which the price is moving in the lower range.
Let's start by marking the support spots for the price and we can see that the price is currently in a strong support zone from $310 to $299, however, if the price goes lower, we can see a strong drop in the price even around $268.
Looking the other way, we can similarly determine the places of resistance that the price has to face. And here we see that the price is currently bouncing off the $312 resistance. Next we have the resistance at $320, and the third resistance at $326, once the price breaks it will move towards the strong resistance zone from $331 to $339.
The CHOP index indicates that there is a lot of energy for the move, the MACD, despite several attempts to change the trend, is still in a downtrend, while the RSI is moving in the lower part of the range, which gives room for price growth, but it is worth noting that there is room for the price to fall even more a little lower.
Daily ETH 1DChart - resistance and supportHello everyone, I invite you to review the chart of ETH in pair to USDT, also on a one-day interval. First of all, using the blue lines, we can mark the uptrend channel in which the price is currently moving.
Now let's move on to marking the places of support. We will use the trend based fib extension tool to mark the supports, and as you can see, we have the first support at $1809, the second support at $1767, the third support at $1734, and then we have support at $1703.
Looking the other way, we can also mark the places where the price should encounter resistance on the way to increases. And here price is fighting resistance at $1830, next resistance is at $1857, then third resistance at $1884 and fourth resistance at $1923.
The CHOP index indicates that there is a lot of energy for the next move. The MACD indicator indicates the transition to an uptrend. On the other hand, on the RSI we see that a small price movement gives visible movements on the indicator, which can quickly reduce the room for further increases.
Daily BTC 4HChart - resistance and supportHello everyone, let's look at the BTC to USDT chart on a 4-hour time frame. As you can see, the price has broken out of the local downtrend line.
Let's start with the support line and as you can see the first support in the near future is $26328, if the support is broken then the next support is $26089 and then $25904.
Now let's move to the resistance line, as you can see the price is moving towards the resistance at $26804, if you manage to break it then we can see an attempt to attack the resistance at $27395
Looking at the CHOP indicator, we see that there is energy to continue the move, MACD indicates a transition to a local uptrend, while the RSI shows a visible increase, but there is room for the price to attack the first resistance.