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Be the Choosy trader on Gold!Price is dragging on dropping. being very indecisive. Looks like the entire market is waiting on News to help give it a push. I need to see price break out of value before I can get a read on a sold move. in the mean time this is sclaping conditions. You can hold trades. Have to cut them short quick with this price action. Since we have some USD news tomorrow that indicates that the market might be waiting for that before proceeding on any decisions. Patience is key!
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by DWoodz
8
US Dollar Weakens: Hedge Funds Shift to Short PositionsThe U.S. dollar, long considered a bastion of stability, is facing a significant shift in sentiment as hedge funds begin to adopt a bearish stance. This reversal, marking a notable change since the period following Donald Trump's election, is driven by a complex interplay of economic uncertainties and evolving market expectations. Factors Driving the Bearish Turn: • Shifting Federal Reserve Expectations: o A key driver of this bearish sentiment is the evolving outlook on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Initially, expectations of a strong dollar were bolstered by projections of limited Fed rate cuts. However, growing concerns about the fragility of the U.S. economy have led to increased expectations of multiple rate reductions. This shift in expectations weakens the dollar's appeal. • Economic Uncertainty and Trade Policies: o Concerns surrounding potential trade wars and the impact of certain economic policies are also weighing on the dollar. Uncertainty about future trade relations and their potential impact on U.S. economic growth is creating apprehension among hedge fund managers. o The impacts of possible public sector job cuts, and restrictive immigration policies, are also adding to the economic uncertainty. • Data from the CFTC: o Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reveals a clear trend. Speculative traders have moved from holding significant long-dollar positions to net short positions, indicating a substantial shift in market sentiment. • Global Economic Factors: o The relative strength of other global economies also plays a role. If other global economies are showing signs of stronger growth, that can also put downward pressure on the dollar. Implications of a Weaker Dollar: • Impact on Global Trade: o A weaker dollar can have significant implications for global trade, potentially making U.S. exports more competitive while increasing the cost of imports. • Inflationary Pressures: o A depreciating dollar can also contribute to inflationary pressures within the U.S. as import prices rise. • Investment Flows: o Changes in the dollar's value can influence international investment flows, as investors adjust their portfolios in response to currency fluctuations. Market Analysis: • Analysts are closely monitoring these developments, with some revising their dollar forecasts downward. The shift in hedge fund positioning underscores the growing uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economic outlook. • It is important to understand that the currency markets are very dynamic, and things can change rapidly. • The effects of political events, and world wide economic changes can have very large effects on the dollar. In essence, the shift in hedge fund sentiment reflects a growing recognition of the complex economic challenges facing the U.S. As these challenges unfold, the dollar's trajectory will remain a key focus for investors and policymakers alike.
TVC:DXY
by bryandowningqln
Breakout on the DXY - Is the DXY going higher?What is the DXY? The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) measures the strength of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies. A rising DXY indicates a strengthening of the U.S. dollar. This can have significant effects on cryptocurrencies, particularly in the short- and medium-term. Here are some of the key impacts: What does an increase in the DXY mean for crypto? Negative Impact on Crypto Prices: As the dollar strengthens (rising DXY), the relative value of other assets, including cryptocurrencies, can decline. Many cryptocurrencies are priced in U.S. dollars, so when the dollar strengthens, the same amount of dollars may buy fewer crypto assets, leading to price declines for cryptocurrencies. Safe-Haven Movement: When investors flock to the U.S. dollar due to its rising strength, they may move capital out of riskier assets like crypto and into the dollar or U.S. Treasury bonds, which are seen as safer. This can cause a decrease in demand for cryptocurrencies. What can we conclude from the 4-hour DXY chart? The DXY experienced a rapid decrease this month, resulting in a drop from 108 to 103. However, after this sharp decline, the price has shown some bullish signs. First: The price action kept making lower lows while the RSI made higher lows, resulting in a bullish divergence. Second: The price action formed a specific pattern commonly found at the end of a downtrend. This pattern shows that the price is making small lower lows and lower highs, suggesting market exhaustion and a possible upside move toward the resistance zone. The resistance zone aligns with the golden pocket Fibonacci level, indicating it could be a strong rejection level. It is highly probable that the DXY could make an upside move to the resistance zone and golden pocket after breaking this bullish chart pattern. What do we see on the daily timeframe? The price dropped rapidly from 108 to the support zone at 103. After consolidating at this level, the price made a slightly lower low, while the RSI made a higher low. This indicates a bullish divergence on the daily timeframe. Before this drop, the DXY formed a typical bearish chart pattern known as Head and Shoulders (H&S). The neckline of the pattern coincides with the resistance zone on the 4-hour timeframe and the golden pocket. This suggests that it may be a difficult level to break. Thanks for your support. - Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis! - Drop a like and leave a comment! Lets chat in the comment section. See you there :)
TVC:DXYLong
by Youriverse
14
DXY Dollar Index Market Bearish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰🐱‍👤🐱‍🏍 Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the DXY Dollar Index Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish thieves are getting stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the breakout (37800) then make your move - Bearish profits await!" however I advise placing Sell Stop Orders below the breakout MA or Place Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low or high level should be in retest. I Highly recommended you to put alert in your chart. Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at 38500 (swing Trade Basis) Using the 4H period, the recent / swing high or low level. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: 36500 (or) Escape Before the Target 🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. 📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook: DXY Dollar Index Market is currently experiencing a Bearish trend., driven by several key factors. ⚡Fundamental Analysis Fundamental factors driving DXY focus on U.S. economic conditions, Fed policy, and global currency dynamics. Interest Rates: U.S. Federal Reserve: Rates steady at 3-3.5%, down from 2024’s 4.5-5%. Fed officials stress data dependency, with no cuts signaled despite weak PMI (50.4) and jobless claims (219,000 vs. 215,000 forecast). Real yields (10-year Treasury at 3.8%, ~1% inflation-adjusted) support USD. Other Countries: ECB at 2.5%, BoJ at 0.25-0.5%, BoE at 4-4.5%—U.S. yield advantage persists, though narrowing. Impact: Bullish for DXY, tempered by global easing. Inflation: U.S.: PCE at 2.6% YoY (Jan 2025), above the Fed’s 2% target, with producer inflation hotter-than-expected (X posts). Inflation fears linger, supporting USD. Other Countries: Eurozone at 2.8%, Japan at 2.5%, UK at 2.5-3%—global inflation pressures USD rivals less. Impact: Bullish, as U.S. inflation sustains Fed hawkishness. Economic Growth: U.S.: Mixed signals—PMI at 50.4 (near stagnation), jobless claims up, but ADP jobs beat at 183,000 (Jan 2025). Tariffs add uncertainty. Other Countries: China at 4.5% (slowing), Eurozone at 1.2%, Japan at 1%—U.S. outperforms peers. Impact: Mildly bullish, U.S. resilience aids USD. Safe-Haven Flows: USD competes with JPY and CHF amid tariff risks and geopolitical flare-ups (Russia-Ukraine, Middle East). Recent yen strength (X posts) pressures DXY. Impact: Mildly bearish, global risk-off challenges USD dominance. Trade Balance: U.S. deficit persists, but Trump’s tariffs (25% Mexico/Canada, 10% China) aim to bolster USD via trade shifts. Impact: Bullish long-term, short-term neutral. ⚡Macroeconomic Factors U.S.-focused with global context: U.S. Policy: Fed’s tighter stance vs. global easing (ECB, BoJ) favors USD. Trump’s tariff threats add volatility, potentially strengthening USD via trade protectionism. Global Growth: 3% (Morgan Stanley), with China slowing and Eurozone stagnant (PMI 46.2). U.S. relative strength supports DXY. Commodity Prices: Oil at $70.44 pressures import-heavy peers (Japan), mildly weakening JPY vs. USD. Currency Dynamics: Yen strength and EUR softness (EUR/USD below 1.0500) drag DXY lower recently, ⚡Commitments of Traders (COT) Data Hypothetical COT (mid-Feb 2025, CME): Large Speculators: Net long USD ~70,000 contracts (down from 80,000 post-110 peak), cooling after profit-taking. Commercial Hedgers: Net short USD ~80,000, hedging export exposure as tariffs loom. Open Interest: ~150,000 contracts, stable, reflecting U.S. trader engagement. Key Insight: Speculative longs suggest bullish bias, but moderation hints at consolidation. ⚡Market Sentiment Analysis Includes retail, institutional, and corporate traders: Retail Sentiment: U.S. retail traders likely 60% short DXY at 106.000 (hypothetical broker data), betting on yen/CHF gains. Contrarian upside risk if shorts unwind. Institutional Traders: U.S. funds (e.g., Citi, HSBC) mixed—bearish short-term (DXY to 96.87, Citi Hong Kong), bullish long-term (WalletInvestor to 119.193). Sentiment leans cautious. Corporate Traders: U.S. exporters hedge at 106.50-107.00, neutral as tariffs loom; European firms favor EUR weakness. Social Media (X): notes yen-driven DXY weakness, sees bearish momentum to 106.15—trending bearish. Broker Data: U.S. IG sentiment ~55% long—balanced positioning. ⚡Quantitative Analysis Moving Averages: 50-day SMA (106.30), 200-day SMA (105.50)—price below 50-day, above 200-day, neutral signal. RSI: 45 (daily), bearish momentum fading, room for reversal. Bollinger Bands: 105.80-106.80 range, 106.000 at midpoint—consolidation likely. Fibonacci: 38.2% retracement from 110.00-102.50 at 105.62—key support holds. Volatility Model: Implied volatility (1-month) at 7%, suggesting 0.75-point monthly range (±0.7%). ⚡Intermarket Analysis USD/JPY: At 150.00, yen strength pressures DXY; drop to 145 could accelerate declines. EUR/USD: Below 1.0500, EUR weakness supports DXY mildly. Gold: XAU/USD at 2940 (risk-off proxy) inversely pressures USD. Equities: S&P 500 range-bound (5960-6120) reflects stability, neutral for DXY. Bonds: U.S. 10-year yield at 3.8% vs. JGB at 0.9%—yield gap aids USD. ⚡News and Events Analysis Recent: Trump’s tariff threats (25% Mexico/Canada, 10% China, Feb 23-25) fuel risk-off, pressuring DXY via yen strength (X posts). Weak U.S. PMI and jobless claims offset by PCE at 2.6% (Jan 2025). Upcoming: U.S. PCE data (Feb 28) critical—hotter data could lift DXY, softer data bearish. Fed rhetoric pending. Impact: Bearish near-term from risk-off, bullish potential from Fed stance. ⚡Overall Summary Outlook DXY at 106.000 balances U.S. resilience (Fed policy, inflation) against global risk-off pressures (tariffs, yen strength). Fundamentals favor USD long-term, but macro risks and sentiment (retail shorts, X bearishness) suggest near-term softness. COT shows cautious longs, quant signals consolidation, and intermarket flows (gold rise, yen strength) lean bearish. Short-term dip to 105.50-105.91 likely, medium-term range-bound with a bullish tilt if Fed holds firm. ⚡Future Prediction Bullish Case: DXY to 108.00-110.00 by Q2 2025 if PCE/Fed bolster USD, tariffs lift trade flows, and risk-on resumes. Bearish Case: Drop to 103.50-105.00 if yen/CHF surge, tariffs falter, or Fed dovishness emerges. Prediction: Mildly bearish short-term to 105.50, then bullish to 108.00 by mid-2025, driven by Fed policy divergence. ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by Thief_Trader
$DXY: Dollar Strength or Dollar Dip?(1/9) Good afternoon, everyone! 🌞 DXY: Dollar Strength or Dollar Dip? With the DXY at 103.732, is the dollar flexing its muscles or ready to stumble? Let’s break it down! 🔍 (2/9) – PRICE PERFORMANCE 📊 • Current Price: 103.732 as of Mar 14, 2025 💰 • Recent Move: Near recent levels, down from 110.18 peak (web data) 📏 • Sector Trend: Forex markets volatile, with trade and policy shifts 🌟 It’s a wild ride—dollar’s dancing on the edge! ⚙️ (3/9) – MARKET POSITION 📈 • Role: Measures USD vs. euro, yen, pound, and more 🏆 • Influence: Drives forex and commodity prices globally ⏰ • Trend: Balancing U.S. policy and global demand, per data 🎯 King of currencies, but not without challengers! 🚀 (4/9) – KEY DEVELOPMENTS 🔑 • Trade Tensions: U.S.-China tariff talks ongoing, per data 🌍 • Rate Cut Bets: Markets eyeing Fed moves, per posts on X 📋 • Market Reaction: Holding steady at 103.732 amid mixed signals 💡 Navigating a storm of global pressures! 🛳️ (5/9) – RISKS IN FOCUS ⚡ • Rate Cuts: Could weaken dollar if Fed acts, per X sentiment 🔍 • Trade Wars: Tariffs disrupting supply chains, per data 📉 • Global Growth: Slowdowns hitting demand for USD ❄️ It’s a tightrope—risks aplenty! 🛑 (6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS 💪 • Reserve Status: USD’s global dominance holds firm 🥇 • U.S. Economy: Still a powerhouse, supporting dollar value 📊 • Safe Haven: Attracts flows in uncertain times, per trends 🔧 Got muscle to flex when it counts! 🏦 (7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES ⚖️ • Weaknesses: Vulnerable to rate cuts, trade spats 📉 • Opportunities: Strong U.S. data could lift it higher, per outlook 📈 Can it hold the line or break out? 🤔 (8/9) – POLL TIME! 📢 DXY at 103.732—your take? 🗳️ • Bullish: 105+ soon, dollar rallies 🐂 • Neutral: Steady, risks balance out ⚖️ • Bearish: 100 looms, dollar dips 🐻 Chime in below! 👇 (9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY 🎯 The DXY’s 103.732 shows it’s steady but tested 📈. Trade wars and Fed moves could swing it either way—dips are our DCA gold 💰. Buy low, ride high—time’s the key! Gem or bust?
TVC:DXY
by DCAChampion
Indian market cannot go bullish until RUPEE becomes strong !a lot of analysts saying Dollar is going to week vs rupees but seeing technical chart, dollar is traded above 50 EMA and never come to touch since October. currently Dollar completed Symmetrical Pattern showing any upcoming momentum may happen, either bullish or bearish is just could say after seeing breakout/breakdown this pattern. To gain strength in Rupee it is required to give USDINR 50EMA breakdown or bearish crossover. Till then the rupee will remain weak and Indian stock market also.
by rahul25
The Dollar Index has reversed upward.Hey everyone! Looks like a solid entry for a DXY long and a good time to start ditching EUR and Gold (yes, I do think gold is heading down). On the daily chart, we can see that we've completed five waves down and are now forming a reversal. EUR/USD and GOLD/USD have already started reacting, Index Dollar (DXY) hitting the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Now the climb begins, with the first target around 125 for the Dollar Index. The potential peak? 144, though we’ll likely see corrections along the way. Buckle up—volatile times ahead... 🧐🧐🧐
TVC:DXYLong
by SergioRichi
1
DXY in 1 H timeframeDXY Analysis on RTM Style Here’s an analysis of the **U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) on the 1H timeframe** based on the **RTM (Read The Market) style** and your drawn arrows: Previous Trend & Break of Structure (BoS)** - The market has been in a strong downtrend, forming **Lower Lows (LL) and Lower Highs (LH)**. - After breaking the **105.485 level (0.5 Fibonacci retracement)**, the bearish momentum continued down to the **103.5 support zone**. Liquidity Zones & Potential Reversal** - The price is currently consolidating around **103.5**, indicating a possible reaction from buyers. - A **Higher High (HH)** is marked, suggesting a potential shift in market structure. Possible Scenario Based on the Arrows** - A short-term **accumulation phase** is expected between **103.5 - 104**. - If the price breaks above **103.998**, bullish momentum may drive it toward the **105.5 - 106.7 zone (Fibonacci 0.5 & 0.786 retracement levels)**. - If this resistance is broken, the final target could be **107.27**, a strong resistance level. - The market is at a **key support level** and may form a bullish structure. - Confirmation of a **Higher High** and a break above **103.998** could trigger an upward move. - **Re-Accumulation** is expected before a strong bullish continuation. - **Bearish Alternative**: If the **103.5 support** fails, the price may drop further to **102.1**. This analysis is suitable for publishing, but I recommend adding an alternative scenario in case the support fails, giving a more well-rounded outlook.
TVC:DXYLong
by mehdi_kb
Dollar Index(DXY) Rebounds from Key Support–Is a New High Cominghello guys. Let's see what happened for us index and what will happen: Uptrend Support: The price has been respecting a long-term ascending trendline since 2011, indicating a strong bullish structure. Recent price action suggests that the index retested this trendline and bounced off it. Key Resistance & Breakout Potential: The index is in a consolidation phase after reaching a local high. If the price holds above the trendline and breaks the previous high (~13,250-13,400), it could trigger further upside movement. The next potential target is near 13,500-13,800 based on historical price action and Fibonacci extensions. ------------------------------------------------- Possible Scenario: Bullish Case: If the price holds above the trendline and breaks the current range resistance, it could continue toward new highs. Bearish Case: A breakdown below the 12,800 support level could lead to a deeper correction toward 12,400-12,000. ------------------------------------------------- Consequences of This Move: For USD Strength: A bullish continuation in the Dollar Index means a stronger USD, which could negatively impact commodities (gold, oil) and emerging market currencies. Forex pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD could decline as the USD gains strength. For Global Markets: A weaker DXY (if the support breaks) would typically support equity markets and commodities like gold and Bitcoin, as a weaker dollar makes them more attractive. ------------------------------------------------- Conclusion: The chart suggests bullish momentum, but confirmation is needed with a breakout above 13,250-13,400. As long as the price respects the trendline and Fibonacci support, the uptrend remains intact. Keep an eye on macroeconomic events (e.g., Fed rate decisions, inflation data), as they can impact this movement significantly.
FX:USDOLLARShort
by melikatrader94
9
Falling towards overlap support?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 103.53 1st Support: 102.36 1st Resistance: 105.62 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYLong
by ICmarkets