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Earningsanalysis

BP Earnings call fundamentals Bought 35.5 calls feb 20 @ 0.45 avrg price just before close monday 3rd. Calls currently @ 2.20 (06/02/20 00:42 GMT) thoughts that lead me to call BP would be up on earnings - 1. Higher production correctively offset negative effects of lower commodity and energy price structures. 2.Final purchase instalments of BHP (LON) circa April, likely asset flow from said deal is starting to take full effect on their books; consequently, boosting overall output even further. 3. Most interesting point (at least to me) and one of the main fundamental drivers, ROSN (LON) trading volume spiked from 261m value traded December to over422m in Jan, which consequently is the largest in over 10 months. BP owns 20%, so for me this was a major indicator; suspect even higher cumulative output to again offset the falling prices in the quarter. Didn’t post on TV at the time but for proof I called Monday reference reedit post under KykoKata. > next target area around 40, second 45.
NYSE:BPLong
by Brad010
Fundamental Analysis MU Earnings Micron TechnologyCheck my profile for more info! For my latest stock, I took a look at Micron Earnings $MU Stock. Darth Bear got 2Pts, while Bull Solo got 5Pts! MU is a strong company with a healthy balance sheet! Darth Bear Points 1)When comparing Q1 20' vs. Q1 19', there was a decrease in sales in all segments (Compute, Mobile, Storage, and Embedded) of the revenue. Total revenue was down ~35% 2) Outlook for Q2 2020(EPS of $0.35 +- $0.06) is still lower than Q2 2019 (EPS of $1.42). Bull Solo Points 1)MU beat earnings and revenue! 2) The company is working on projects for the future, Upgraded version of their current products + the purchase of new AI Company will help them work with AI customer needs. 3) The company has a strong shareholder return, buying shares every quarter with Annual free cash flow + buying back senior convertible note to reduce dilution count. 4) Balance Sheet is looking good! It has more cash than the total debt, which is always a great thing. Continuously paying down its debt. 5) Analyst Estimate Future EPS and revenue is growing for the next two years. Giving MU Forward P/E ratio of about ~11, If this is the bottom, then these are great numbers. $SPY $AMD $SOXL
NASDAQ:MU
by josen626
Fundamental Analysis YEXT Earnings YEXTCheck my profile for more info! For my latest stock, I took a look at YEXT Earnings $YEXT Stock YEXT is a software company the helps companies provide Perfect Answers, Straight From the Source to their customers. Darth Bear Points 1)They have negative EPS. Since the company is growing, they are using their money for sales to collect even more customers. 2) The company has negative cash flow from operations, so if not careful, it can burn off its cash. Bull Solo Points 1) Revenue growth has seen ~30% Y/Y for almost every quarter, also seeing Gross Profit increasing! 2) Strong Balance Sheet, Cash & Equ can pay off almost all their total liabilities. 3) A current ratio above 1, current assets > current liabilities means this company is not going to have a hard time continuing its business for the short term. 4) Debt to equity ratio ~1.28, not the best number, but it almost has a 1to1 ratio. The company is not overly leveraged at the moment. *Analyst project a continuation of 30% Revenue growth for next year.
NYSE:YEXT
by josen626
Fundamental Analysis CRNC Earnings CerenceCheck my profile for more info! For my latest stock, I took a look at Cerence Earnings $CRNC Stock. Darth Bear got 1Pts, while Bull Solo got 6Pts! CRNC is a new publicly-traded company, so there are many things to keep an eye out. CRNC is a software company the creates solutions to make your car "smart" Take a look if you want to invest in Software, Artificial Intelligence company. Darth Bear Points 1)Since this is a brand new company, there is no shareholder return. It is highly likely the debt or dilution of shares will be done in the future for funding reasons. *Notable mentions: This is the first quarter as a public traded company, so the 10Q and 10K reports don't have much "audited information." Bull Solo Points 1) CRNC beat earnings and revenue! 2) Comparable sales for their three revenue segments have increased compared to the previous year. 3) Future plans can be seen from their R&D expenses, which is their highest operating expense. They are hiring more engineers and innovation personal! 4) Balance Sheet is looking good! 85% of total liabilities are made up of deferred revenue, meaning this company has a backlog of work! Total assets, unfortunately, have a massive percentage of Goodwill and Intangible assets. 5) The company sees revenue growth for 2020 of about 8%. 6) Analyst Estimate Future EPS and revenue is growing for the next two years. Giving Forward P/E ratio of about ~16.8, which is kind of high for my taste but not too horrible. ETF's holding this company are: $QTUM $XSW $RYJ
NASDAQ:CRNC
by josen626
J. Alexander's good for a rally to 11.69J. Alexander's dropped hard from 11.69 to 9.50 before its earnings report, but it got a huge positive surprise (200%), reporting a profit rather than a loss, and rallied back to 10.50. After a technical pullback to 10.00, I expect the stock to move higher again from here. The earnings surprise was so large that I think we'll see the stock head all the way back up to its pre-earnings volume node at 11.69. I've drawn some trend lines to watch for bullish trend line breaks. JAX has a 9/10 analyst summary score and has recently had several analyst upgrades.
JLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
TESLA RE-VALUATION UPDATE|Q3 EARNINGS DISSECTION|+ESG INVESTING+The Q3 earnings report was surprise to everyone, kudos to Musk and his team for a job well done . There are still some questions, but it seems that most of the fundamental issues that Tesla had since the start of the year, have been solved. ****Here are the key points from the Q3 earnings report and the revaluation with the addition of ESG factors: ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1. Increase to 22.8% Gross Margin(from 18.9%) and an Operating margin of 4.1%(from -2.6% ). Argument : Improvement in their production line, Tesla's becoming more efficient at producing vehicles. (Ref #2) 2. Large improvement in cash flows, mostly because of cost cutting(15% "magical" drop in expenses) ; at the same time slightly lower revenue. More importantly their investments are having faster payoffs than expected ( China expansion and model Y development, both ahead of schedule). 3. Tesla is becoming more diversified as there are more indications that they're successfully developing their energy storage projects. Revenue from project unrelated to auto sales grew from 368(Q2) to 402 mil(Q3), and will continue to expand in 2020 .(Ref #3) 4. Obviously, since cash flows are better, so is their EBITDA(Q2-371 mil, Q3-876 mil), this is where their good EPS figure came from. Furthermore, there are indications of deferred revenue that will be realized in the following quarters." We also expect to gradually release nearly $500M of accumulated deferred revenue tied to Autopilot and Full Self Driving features." 5. US EV market seems to be saturated, but there could be an opportunity for more demand to kick in as the current ESG investing trends continue based on the current DIM(Green new deal) momentum . Tesla's European expansion will take time and won't be as profitable as the Asian expansion. Chinese expansion opportunity without a doubt will have a large long-term payoff.(Ref #4) *** Most importantly: The rest of the market could feed off the Tesla surprise. No doubt, it's been the best and most bullish surprise for the earning season so far. In times of rising recession fears, Tesla doing well as the market leader in a growing EV automarket, definitely is a major benefactor to the sentiment overall .*** _____________________________________________________________________________________________________ Have to say that I've learn to, not be dependant on wall street analysts when trading highly volatile growth stocks (extension from my previous post). But then again, going off of management's' guidance, they will always have the incentive to manipulate the numbers . It can be said that their bad start of 2019, was an existential threat to Tesla, so Musk and the team got to work. There are still some questions about profitability, but the tricky part is that Tesla's investors are motivated because of ESG factors, not by profitability . Profitability matters less to these type of investors, since the markup in valuation from having a high ESG* score, could improve long-term returns in such investments as Tesla . At these low rates, even if profitability is low, Tesla could keep financing their investments and keep growing with good fundamentals. Additionally, taking their positive ESG score into consideration- the long term looks bullish. I think that more and more portfolio managers will sacrifice potentially higher sharpe ratios in order to acquire stocks with higher ESG scores(some trade-off), as investor preferences continue to change and become more and more adaptive to the increasing popular ESG investing trends. ( Ref #1, great paper on ESG's impact on investing. This is the update on Tesla post-earnings. Learned my lesson (my bad) , short interest was just too damn high to ignore it pre-earnings. -Step_ahead_ofthemarket- *ESG stands for Environmental, Social, Governance. >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up and follow is greatly appreciated ! _____________________________________________________________________________________________________ References and Disclosure: 1. papers.ssrn.com ( ESG Investing paper, released about a week ago) 2. ir.tesla.com (Q3 Earnings report) 3. hypercharts.co (All the financials) 4. www.youtube.com (Good video on earnings and conference call) *https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/environmental-social-and-governance-esg-criteria.asp Full Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content for private or corporate purposes- contact me through any of my social media channels.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
6
Momentum Falling on MSFT?Some of the bigger names seem to be traded with a "sell the news" response to earnings. See FB, AAPL, NFLX, for examples. All popped to highs at the open and were sold off for the next day or two, or more. Will we see the same on MSFT? If it does pop to the top, I've got 145 as a first target. If it pushes past 149, there I would take the loss, if I got short. Since it is already at all time highs, what is the likelihood of profit taking at these prices? Who is willing to pay higher prices for MSFT? I've pasted a link to another chart below. I'm looking forward to your response. www.tradingview.com
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by BrianDreamTrader
1
ROKU is a great buy before earnings! This is a great buy before earnings! i am not predicting what happens after earnings! The long term charts look aggressively bullish! Current price ($129.94) has the history of being a previous support level so it has a high probability of making a u-turn and becoming bullish . Also the current price ($129.94) is at the Fibonacci Retracement (38.20%) -> which suggests that the trend is turning bullish and it could be a great entry point. The first candle on Monday morning can predict the movement for the week. If it is a bullish candle then it means that we are going to see a huge jump in price. The highest price i am expecting to see before earnings is $148.64 (which is right at the trend line ).
NASDAQ:ROKULong
by AlborzM
HOME DEPOT INC EARNINGS Earnings are coming up ( be careful not to get caught gessuing). IF EARNIGS DO NOT EFFECT THE MARKETS. I see a potential short into a bigger cluster of buyers and sellers @195 and ultamately bouncing and following the trend upwards. I would keep this on the watch list. IF EARNINGS ARE GOOD *** I would buy calls and stock for long term investments as fas as possible using my options as leveradge to gain income. IF EARNINGS ARE BAD I would wait for a bottom. Home depot is a staple in america. Not much competition. I would hold it long term once I fundamentaly and analyticaly picked a bottom. Use my site for my personal picks @ SuperiorCapitalMembers.com & Please don't forget to follow my Tradingview account.
NYSE:HDLong
by SaturnSPX_
1
SHOP Earnings Tomorrow!With a previous 7.40% intraday surge, after the previous earnings announcement and an earnings bet of +0.13 Cent per share compared to the Wall Street consensus, we can expect SHOP to similarly behave this time around and are slightly bullish, as the company continues to grow and is on an overall uptrend. However we position ourselves neutral, as the company's stock is up by 129.69% (YTD) this year already. We expect the stock so bounce anywhere between from 293 to 342. The hype remains, growth prospects are there, but valuation is unreasonably rich at these levels.
S
by movingindicators
2
Earnings season is open: bet on banksNext week starts the earnings season in the US (the second quarter of 2019). Leading US stock indices currently show historical highs, but analysts are quite skeptical about the upcoming financial results from leading companies. According to a survey conducted by S&P Global Market Intelligence, it is expected that almost all 11 sectors of the S&P 500 index will show a decline in EPS (earnings per share ratio). For example, in the communication Services, as expected, EPS will decrease by more than 40% (expected change in Q2 EPS from year- earlier quarter), Materials sector will lose more than 20%, and even Information Technology sector is expected to show a decrease in EPS by more than 4%. Explanations for this are as follows: a strong dollar lowers commodity prices and damages companies from the Materials sector; the trade wars between China and the US accompanied by US attacks on Huawei have led to problems for companies involved in Communication Services and Information Technology. Another problem is inflated capitalization (during a decade, American companies spent billions to buy their own shares, which greatly inflated the value of their stocks). On the whole, the US stock market looks like a typical bubble, inside which, instead of air, is cheap money, which is the result of the ultra-soft monetary policy of the Fed since 2008-2009. Do not forget also about zero and negative rates in Japan and Europe, which redirected capital flows from the European and Japanese markets to the US stock market. As a result, stock prices have rocketed to the sky, and it is very difficult to increase EPS further. Almost the only sector of the S&P 500 index that is expected to show positive EPS change is Financials. So if you are planning to buy in the US stock market during the earnings period, then you should first pay attention to banks and financial companies. And since they are traditionally the first to report, then you need to act here and now. For example, Citigroup Inc. will report on Monday July 15, even before the market opens. JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo The Goldman Sachs will announce their financial results on Tuesday, and Bank Of America, U.S. Bancorp (USB), The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK) - on Wednesday. What is the secret of Financials? Why do they show an increase in EPS, when everyone else goes under the water? The monetary policy of the Fed has become the main driver of the financial success of banks in the United States. Until now, the increase in interest rates contributed to the growth of banks' profitability and, as a consequence, the growth of their financial indicators. The recent statements by the Fed about expected interest rates cut, in theory, should have led to negative expectations and a fall in bank margins. Instead these expectations have led to a significant decline in long-term rates, which has meant a jump in mortgage loan refinancing activity, which means more fee income for the banks. Another argument in favor of banks in the current earnings season is the fact that bank stocks typically trade at significantly lower valuations to earnings estimates than that of the S&P 500. What is more interesting and surprising, the discount over the past five years has increased. Five years ago, the S&P 500 banks as a group traded at a weighted forward price-to-earnings ratio that was 72% of the valuation for the full index. Now the group trades at a forward P/E valuation 60% of the full index. That is, bank stocks, in fact, are traded at a discount, and therefore, relative to the market as a whole, they are undervalued. In addition, according to Warren Koontz (head of value equity at Jennison Associates - manages $176 billion for private clients and mutual funds), the US banking sector is “in the best shape they have been in for 30 years in terms of balance sheets, the management of the companies and the capital they have to deploy”. In general, the purchase of US bank stocks is now a kind of investment “combo”: in addition to the arguments listed above, they also give dividend payouts with “double-digit rates” growth and provide significant share buybacks. A company in another industry with those characteristics would be priced far higher than the banks are now. And the last thing. According to analysts (the results of the FactSet survey), Wells Fargo & Co. has the greatest potential for EPS growth. (EPS is expected to grow by 20%), Bank of America Corp. (growth by 13%), Citigroup Inc. (an increase of 13%) and JPMorgan Chase & Co (10%). So stocks of these banks should be bought first.
NYSE:CLong
by Trade24Fx
2