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Daily Market Analysis - TUESDAY JUNE 20, 2023Investors Await Central Bank Actions Amid Global Economic Concerns and Uncertainties Prevail Today events: USA - Building Permits (May) USA - FOMC Member Bullard Speaks USA - Housing Starts (MoM) (May) USA - FOMC Member Williams Speaks Eurozone - ECB McCaul Speaks Eurozone - ECB's De Guindos Speaks On the evening of Monday, following a public holiday, there was a slight decline in stock futures as investors braced themselves for significant speeches expected from officials of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) throughout the week. This anticipation added to the prevailing uncertainties and lack of clarity that characterized the previous week. In the United States, the inflation data was considered acceptable but not extraordinary, prompting the Fed to temporarily halt its actions while projecting multiple interest rate hikes in the future. In contrast, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates and emphasized the potential for further increases. Now, all eyes are on the Bank of England (BoE) as it confronts the formidable task of managing the current situation. Despite the efforts of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to maintain control, there exists a looming risk of inflation spiraling out of hand. Among the major economies grappling with the dual objectives of taming inflation and ensuring a smooth economic transition, the United Kingdom appears to be encountering the greatest challenges in effectively attaining these goals. GBP/USD daily chart An intriguing observation can be made regarding the GBP/USD currency pair. Despite retracing from its recent peak around $1.28, the pair has still managed to register a notable 3% gain over the past month. Notably, the British pound has also exhibited strength against the euro, appreciating by more than 1.6% during the same period. This is particularly noteworthy when considering the past situation in September, where the pound was nearing parity with the dollar as UK Gilt yields surged. Presently, it is trading close to the $1.30 mark. This suggests that the foreign exchange market does not currently reflect a prevailing perception of an imminent economic disaster for the UK. In the realm of EUR/USD, Tuesday presents challenges for the currency pair to gain significant momentum. It remains confined within a narrow trading range, with the pair hovering just above the 1.0900 level during the Asian session. US Dollar Currency Index daily chart Following its recent decline, the US Dollar (USD) is currently in a phase of recovery. Last Friday, it reached a low that had not been witnessed in over a month. However, the USD has been displaying a gradual strengthening trend for the past three consecutive days. This resurgence of the USD poses a challenge for the EUR/USD currency pair, causing it to retreat to the latest level of 102.55. EUR/USD daily chart However, despite the prevailing challenges, the downside for the EUR/USD pair seems to find some support, at least temporarily, thanks to the hawkish stance adopted by the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB's optimistic outlook serves as a factor that mitigates the potential decline of the pair. Furthermore, the current subdued sentiment in equity markets works in favor of the US Dollar's role as a safe-haven currency. This situation, in turn, limits the upside potential for the EUR/USD pair. Concerns regarding a potential global economic slowdown, particularly in China, cast a shadow over reports of China contemplating a comprehensive stimulus package to bolster its economy. These worries continue to dampen investor sentiment. Even the recent decision by the People's Bank of China to lower the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) on Tuesday fails to alleviate anxieties or provide significant momentum to the major currency pair. It is noteworthy that the ECB has recently raised interest rates for the eighth consecutive time, propelling them to the highest level witnessed in 22 years. The central bank has also emphasized the necessity of further rate hikes to attain the Eurozone's medium-term inflation target of 2%. XAU/USD daily chart In contrast, gold has undergone substantial volatility in the preceding month. Despite the dissemination of recent data and central bank determinations, this precious metal has remained confined within a narrow price range of $1,940 to $1,980, demonstrating minimal signs of breaking out in either direction in the immediate future. Nevertheless, it is important to recognize that market conditions can swiftly shift. The current week is particularly eventful, as it is characterized by a flurry of central bank interest rate decisions and a multitude of speeches by Federal Reserve officials. These upcoming events have the potential to introduce new dynamics and variables into the financial markets.
by FOREXN1
11
EUR/USD flirts with 1.08 leading into FOMC and ECB meetingsEUR/USD broke above the 1.0800 handle yesterday thanks to a weak US inflation report, yet price action now finds itself back beneath that key level leading into today's FOMC meeting (and tomorrow's ECB meeting). But as the pair has risen over the past two weeks, it may take a particularly dovish meeting from the Fed to drive it materially higher. Therefore, we're looking for evidence of a swing high and for a move back towards the 1.0700 handle. A bearish divergence is forming on the RSI 4-hour chart and we've identified two resistance zone around the 1.0800 and 1.0860 area we'd consider fading into, or seeking evidence of a swing high. Otherwise, a stop above 1.0800 could suffice should momentum turn lower without breaking back above 1.0800.
Short
by CityIndex
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 16, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The euro-dollar price movement followed our projections as stated on Daily Chart Analysis For the Week of June 9 - the price action hit our initial upside target of Mean Res 1.082 and beyond by completing our Inner Currency Rally 1.096. The unconfirmed pivotal down move is in progress, with the mark aimed to mean Sup 1.080. Trade Selecter will closely monitor any updates and share any valid confirmation with you.  (Please note that there will be no Daily Chart Analysis for the week of June 23. The next update will be on June 30) . 
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD surges after ECB rate hikeEUR/USD is trading at 1.0948 in Europe, almost unchanged on the day. On Thursday, the euro surged 1.05% in the aftermath of the ECB rate hike. The ECB raised rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, bringing the benchmark rate to 3.50%, the highest level since 2001. The markets were not surprised by the move but ECB President Lagarde's hawkish comments following the rate announcement may have surprised some and the euro responded with massive gains. In her press conference, Lagarde said that barring a material change, it was "very likely" that the ECB would continue raising rates in July. Lagarde dampened any thoughts of a pause, even though the eurozone economy remains fragile and growth is expected to be weak. Headline inflation has been falling sharply in the eurozone, as energy prices have fallen. This is positive news, but the ECB is more concerned about core inflation, which is a better gauge of where inflation is headed. The core rate, which excludes energy prices, has been stickier than expected. Inflation has also cooled due to the ECB's rate tightening, but the current rate of 6.1% is far too high for the central bank, which is likely to hike again in July. The Federal Reserve dramatic decision on Wednesday contained two important aspects. First, the Fed took a breather and held rates after 10 straight rate increases. Second, the Fed signalled that the pause did not indicate the end of the current rate-tightening cycle, as the Fed was projecting two more hikes in the second half of the year. Fed Chair Powell reiterated in his press conference that the inflation battle "has a long way to go" and there is every indication that Powell will keep hammering away with rate hikes until inflation falls to the 2% target. There is resistance at 1.1050 and 1.1147 1.0922 and 1.0854 are providing support
by OANDA
EUR/USD Challenges 1.0900 After ECB Delivers Rate HikeThe EUR/USD pair extended gains into a fourth consecutive day on Thursday following the European Central Bank's (ECB) decision to raise its main rates by 25 basis points, as expected. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD pair is trading at the 1.0880 area, recording a 0.7% daily gain, having touched its highest level in a month at 1.0894. The European Central Bank announced its decision to raise the main financing rate to 4.00%, the marginal lending to 4.25% and the deposit facility rate to 3.50%. In the subsequent speech, ECB President Christine Lagarde fueled the hawkish narrative as she stated the board is "not thinking about pausing." Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve decided to skip a rate increase on Wednesday after ten consecutive increases. However, the dot plot and Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish words slammed prospects of rate cuts for the remainder of the year. From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair's short-term bias is bullish, according to indicators on the daily chart, while the price has managed to climb back above the 20- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) and now challenges the critical 1.0900 resistance area. A break above the psychological level could fuel bullish momentum and send the EUR/USD to retest the 1.0970 resistance zone ahead of 1.1000. On the other hand, the 100-day SMA at around 1.0805 is the key support to watch as a drop below would deteriorate the short-term outlook, exposing the 1.0700 zone en route to May's lows at 1.0635.
by Alex_Boltyan_FXAnalyst
GBPUSD DOUBLE SETUP BEFORE ECB RATESIn April, UK GDP grew by 0.2% m/m, recovering from the previous month's decline of -0.3% m/m. The rebound was driven by the services sector, with services expanding by 0.3% m/m and contributing 0.26 percentage points to overall GDP growth. The wholesale and retail sector, as well as the information and communication sector, made significant contributions. However, manufacturing and the health sector experienced declines. Manufacturing contracted by 0.3% m/m, with the pharmaceuticals sector playing a major role. The construction sector also declined by 0.6% m/m due to a slowdown in housing activity. Overall, UK GDP growth remains relatively stagnant, but PMI surveys indicate increased activity in April and May, especially in services, projecting a 0.3%-0.4% q/q growth rate for Q2. However, the extra bank holiday in May is expected to result in a significant contraction in GDP, potentially impacting the entire second quarter, although the effect on Bank of England policy is expected to be minimal. Nicola, CEO Forex48 Trading Academy
by EdgeTradingJourney
BluetonaFX - EURUSD KEY LEVELSHi Traders! Please see our new levels for EURUSD below. Vector Level: 1.08047 Vector Level: 1.09298 Anchor Level: 1.04833 Apex Level: 1.10956 The recent price action on the 1D chart is telling us that EURUSD is looking for a direction to continue in. We have been stuck in a range (highlighted on the chart) for the past two weeks or so, and key decisions and announcements this week from the ECB and the Federal Reserve will most likely take us in a certain direction. To the upside, if there is any USD weakness or EUR strength, our first vector level is at 1.08047; we have not been above this level for almost a month. If the market breaks and closes above this level, then we have the next vector level at 1.09298 and then our apex level at 1.10956. If there is EUR weakness or USD strength and we stay below 1.08047, then it is very likely that we will target our anchor level of 1.04833. This anchor level is a very important level, as we have not been below it this year. This trading week will be very busy with all of the upcoming fundamental announcements, and there are bound to be big market moves, so make sure you trade safely and responsibly. Please do not forget to support us by liking, following, and commenting on our posts; this helps us greatly. Thank you for your support. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
2
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 9, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The euro-dollar price movement followed our projections as stated on Daily Chart Analysis For the Week of June 2 - the price action hit our initial upside target of Mean Res 1.076. The continuation of the pivotal rebound is expected to push to Mean Res 1.082 this week, following through the pivot move that will take us to Mean Sup 1.068 and possibly two extensions to fulfill our target next Inner Currency Dip 1.047 ultimately. Viewing the Pivotal Down Move prediction is based on the current price action, notwithstanding confirmation from the Trade Selector that will be given before implementing any strategies.
by TradeSelecter
EURUSD 05/06/2023 TRADING LEVELS UPDATEHi Traders, PLEASE SEE LINK TO ORIGINAL IDEA BELOW. Rounding off the week with an update to our forecasted EURUSD levels on the 1D chart. After the bounce from the 78.6% Fibonacci support level, there was a bullish push upwards (highlighted on the chart) and we have now pulled back near our forecasted Vector Resistance 1 level at 1.08047. The trading range on EURUSD was quite small this week as we have traders waiting for both the ECB & Federal Reserve interest rate decision announcement next week. We will continue to analyse the markets and will have new levels for you for the upcoming trading week. Please do not forget to like, comment and follow. Thank you for your support. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
4
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 2, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: In our Daily Chart Analysis for the Week of May 26, the euro-dollar price movement followed our projections perfectly. On May 31, the price hit our initial down target of Inner Currency Dip 1.064, followed by a dead cat bounces to our Mean Res 1.075 target last Friday. The retest of the completed Inner Currency Dip 1.064 is in progress, with the strong possibility of falling further to Mean Sup 1.054.
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD falls to 5-week low as inflation easesThe euro has edged higher on Thursday, trading at 1.0708, up 0.19%. The currency remains under pressure as the US dollar is flexing some muscles. On Wednesday, EUR/USD touched a low of 1.0635, its lowest level since March 20. There are clear signs of disinflation in the eurozone, as rising interest rates have dampened economic activity. Spain and France reported sharp drops in inflation in April, and Germany has followed suit, with inflation dropping from 7.6% in April to 6.3% in May. This was lower than the consensus of 6.8%. In the eurozone, inflation fell from 7% to 6.1%, below the consensus of 6.3%. Inflation has eased as energy prices have fallen sharply, with food prices also dropping. Most importantly, eurozone core inflation fell to 5.3%, down from 5.6% and below the consensus of 5.5%. The ECB is focussed on the core rate, which excludes energy and food prices. The drop in the core inflation in April will add support for the ECB to take a pause in rate hikes, as early as the July meeting. The US House of Representatives approved the debt ceiling deal on Wednesday. The measure sailed through, by a vote of 314-117. The Senate is expected to vote on the bill later this week, with the government forecast to hit the debt ceiling by June 5th. On the employment front, JOLTS Job Openings rose to 10.1 million, above the upwardly revised prior reading of 9.7 million and the consensus of 94 million. This is another indication that the labour market remains very strong and if the nonfarm payrolls release on Friday is solid, the Fed may have to continue raising rates. Fed members are divided on whether to pause or hike at the June 14th meeting, and Fed swap futures are pricing in a 67% chance of a 0.25% hike at the meeting. There is resistance at 1.0753 and 1.0804 1.0675 and 1.0624 are providing support
by OANDA
1
Weak Euro - War between central banks!FOREXCOM:EURUSD is under sell pressure. Germany is officially in recession. Inflation numbers came short in both Spain and Germany. These are signs for interest rates in eurozone is slowing down the economy and at some point ECB needs to stop increasing interest rates, which would make euro weaker. In contrast to this, job openings and GDP numbers came positive for the US economy. This is increasing the hand of FED for further rate hikes. All these fundamentals are pushing FOREXCOM:EURUSD lower. TA shows that the price is following the down channel. The channel support and pivotal point supports (both monthly and quarterly) are around 1.05-1.053 zone. We will watch if that area holds or not for a long opportunity. Disclaimer – WhaleGambit. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
by WhaleGambit
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of May 26, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: This week's eurodollar price action was lower, and the current trading pattern suggests the designated target of the Inner Currency Dip is 1.064 in the making, as indicated in last week's daily chart analysis, with the possibility of falling further to Mean Sup 1.054. We also anticipate a quick rebound to Mean Res 1.075 with the potential to reach Mean Res 1.082 upon completion of its main target.
by TradeSelecter
EURUSD Potential Forecast | 15th May 2023Fundamental Backdrop ECB hiked rates by 25bps most recently. Fed continues to see heightened inflation and maintains its uncompromising hawkish stance. Empire State Manufacturing Index release later on with market pricing in a negative print. Technical Confluences Daily support level at 1.0755 where price can potentially tap into. Price has broken past the daily resistance at 1.0961. Idea With the DXY expected the strengthen in the short term, EURUSD can potentially continue bearish to the support at 1.0755 NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE DISCLAIMER The trading related ideas posted by OlympusLabs are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves a high degree of risk, and individuals should carefully consider their investment objectives, financial situation, and risk tolerance before making any trading decisions based on our ideas. We are not a licensed financial advisor or professional, and the information we are providing is based on our personal experience and research. We make no guarantees or promises regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information provided, and users should do their own research and analysis before making any trades. Users should be aware that trading involves significant risk, and there is no guarantee of profit. Any trading strategy may result in losses, and individuals should be prepared to accept those risks. OlympusLabs and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages that may result from the use of our trading related ideas or the information provided on our platform. Users should seek the advice of a licensed financial advisor or professional if they have any doubts or concerns about their investment strategies.
Short
by OlympusLab
BluetonaFX - EURUSD Will we break the range?Hi Traders! EURUSD is very quiet and looking for a direction. This may depend on fundamental news out later today with the FOMC and ECB speaking this evening. On a technical outlook, we have a bearish price channel with lower highs and lower lows, there is strong buying pressure around the 1.09630 area and strong selling pressure around the 1.10950 area. Whether we breakout to the upside or downside may depend on what we hear from both the FOMC and ECB. We will be listening closely to what they say and keep you updated with how the market behaves to both their respective announcements. Please make sure to follow, like and comment. Thank you for your support. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX