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EUR,USD,JPY Go Nuts After ECB! Fed, BoJ Expectations More DovishIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse EURUSD and USDJPY! Euro, dragged lower by the reinstation of the QE programme, was able to reverse post-ECB losses on the back of: - Limited rate cut compared to markets expectations (only 10 basis points) - Draghi's call on governments for fiscal stimulus (supporting EA economies?) - Widening yield differential against the dollar (ECB can't move lower, Fed can) - Expectations that the Fed will cut next week (a weaker dollar) On the other hand, the yen was also negatively affected by ECB's decision to ease. But with an ultraloose policy in the books for quite a number of years now anyway, easing would be worst in Japan rather than in the US. Hence the bullishness in USDJPY! Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
What to expect from ECB and what to do with the euro, US inflatiAnnouncement of the ECB decision on monetary policy in the Eurozone is what everybody waiting for. Analysts are expecting lowering rates, a new quantitative easing program (an increase in bond buybacks) and all kinds of support signals from the ECB for the European economy. What are the chances? In our opinion, the chances are high enough. The fact is that the Eurozone economy is sending more and more signals about problems and the upcoming recession. Recall the German GDP growth rate in the second quarter (below zero), negative retail sales in the Eurozone and business activity indices below 50. Everything is decisively in favor of the need for ECB intervention. And although representatives of the Central Bank are supporting fiscal stimulus, it is obvious that the ECB is expected to act. What does the softening of an already ultra-soft monetary policy mean for the euro? It means that the euro will be under pressure and it needs to be sold. Against the yen, against the pound and even against the dollar. At least that is what we plan to do today and possibly in the foreseeable future (the final position will depend on the actual decisions of the ECB). Also, today it is worth paying attention to data on consumer inflation in the United States. Recall that next Wednesday the Fed should decide whether to reduce the rate or not. In this light, inflationary data can either sow doubts or remove them completely. Weak data (low inflation) will make it clear to the Fed that you can safely reduce the rate. In the end, the central bank’s main goal is to control inflation, and then help to ensure economic growth. Accordingly, weak data will be another reason for dollar sales in the foreign exchange market. Trump, meanwhile, continues to escalate, urging the Fed to lower rates to 0%. As for other trading ideas, we traditionally recommend buying gold and selling the Russian ruble. Pound purchases also remain a priority.
Short
by Trade24Fx
EUR/USD prior the ECB Meeting definitely worth a deeper lookToday the ECB Meeting takes place. At 13:45 the Interest Rates will be announced here a cut is expected and already priced into the markets. At 14:30 it should get really interesting here Draghi will hold his last important speech at the ECB, it is expected that this speech will be very dovish kind of a farewell present from Draghi and we have seen that the markets definitely have priced in the outcome of this speech already, but could it actually be that that at this point of time too much has been priced in? We will see shortly....
Long
by JonasBenjaminFriedrich
EURUSD - Remain Flat Ahead of ECB, then Act AccordinglyThe ECB is expected to do 4 things: cut rates by 0.1% to -0.5% (1), with the mitigating measure of tiering (2). Furthermore, the market expects and extension of forward guidance (‘at present or lower…well past the horizon of net asset purchases’) (3); the market expects the reintroduction of QE for 12 months at a pace of 30-40 bln per month (4). The market is expecting a bazooka…but the Shadow ECB council suggested that Draghi will not be able to deliver the full package. Since the market is expecting a bazooka, obviously the sensitive side is the hawkish surprize. DO NOT TRADE AHEAD OF THE DECISION. Wait for the evidence and then act. We will update this chart as appropriate, after the decision.
by Sam_Eder
Dovish ECB Could Finally Make EURUSD Test 1.09000 Level!Have a look at the main chart for the EURUSD Daily TF, where the BLUE horizontal lines represent concrete support and resistance levels taken directly from the Monthly TF. The orange horizontal lines represent the support and resistance taken from daily and weekly TF. The 1.09000 level has not yet been tested on monthly charts, however the price did come close to testing it. Tomorrow's ECB meeting would likely make the price test this elusive level shall the message be dovish! Technically speaking, the daily TF chart shows a neat descending channel and should the daily candle close below 1.1000 level convincingly by end of the day, we could see the price gather pace towards the 1.09000 elusive support. Fundamentally the markets have already priced in a dovish ECB outcome, however keep in mind the EUR is at a consolidation stage and ECB might just ignite the selling pressure and take this pair towards the 1.05 Support in the near future. In short both fundamental and technical picture are highly tilted towards a depreciation in the EURUSD. This just represents my analysis. shall there be any trade entries (possibly tomorrow)i will post them in a new post. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
USDJPY - Long - Continued Upward MomentumWe still see USD/JPY moving higher as it continues it's upward momentum and after consolidating above 107 we now believe it can move towards the 108.3 resistance level. This we feel is due to the recovery in global equity markets from the August lows and easing of tensions in the US/China trade war. However, we anticipate downside risks if the ECB are less dovish than expected at tomorrow's meeting and weak US CPI and US retail sales increase the odds of potential FED rate cuts.
Long
by KQMarkets
Euro Triangle Breakout Before ECB...Load up Bears!!!Consolidation triangle has a breakout.... Looking for a simple retest of the 1.1040 area which is a nice retrace of the current move.... Also we finally broke below the moving averages so retesting in that same area of confluence.. Ill be looking to add in this confluence area in addition to my shorts from earlier in the weak (idea attached) Note: Macd is poised to cross Zero threshold so a momentum move is near Positioning for ECB which should be dovish Aiming for the lows 1.097 for TP1 and 1.088 TP2 Happy Huntin' Happy Trappin' BooBii
Short
by rickyboobii
Reading the Right Side of the Chart : USDCHF Manipulation ZoneApabila nampak level yang terlalu jelas, maka besar kemungkinan tempat itu akan menjadi zon yang diperhatikan dan apabila zon itu menjadi tempat perhatian maka banyak "orders" akan duduk disana. When you see obvious levels, you can bet EVERYONE will see it. When everyone sees it, then there will be A LOT of interest at those zones. When there are a lot of interest, begets liquidity for the market to latch onto. Price had been trading above Monday's high and currently testing the weekly high. Another zone that big players looking at (too simplistic you might argue but think about it, retail traders and other participants look at the obvious and the ones that make sense to them. Picking a weekly high seems arbitrary I agree but it is what is. I am currently bearish bias "standby mode" at the moment but I would feel better and comfortable if the price trades higher into one of the two levels I marked on the chart. Please be wary trading this pair though as it is somewhat correlated with EURUSD and this pair (EURUSD) super duper sensitive with the major risk event tomorrow : ECB Rate Decision. Be careful out there guys.
Short
by sufiansaid
Pound & easing global monetary policyYesterday, quite unexpectedly, a block of economic data on GDP and industrial production, instead of already traditional disappointment, provided an occasion for optimism. In July UK GDP grew by 0.3% (expected to grow at 0.1%), while industrial production instead of a decline by 0.3% (expert forecasts) went to the positive zone ( + 0.1% ). Monday following Johnson’s next parliamentary defeat in a few days. His next attempt to initiate an early election failed. come into effect Law against "no-deal" Brexit came into effect. Not surprisingly, the pound continued to grow against such a background. Our position on the pound is unchanged: we are looking for points for purchases. But with small stops, because the situation with Brexit can develop quite dynamically. Meanwhile, the markets are preparing for a wave of rate cuts by leading central banks of the world. On Friday, the Bank of China lowered the rate by 0.5% to the lowest level since 2007. In this light, the decision of the ECB on Thursday is becoming more significant and significant. Recall next week the Fed, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of Switzerland will announce their decisions. So the upcoming two weeks promise to be full of news. Strengthening of the Russian ruble in the foreign exchange market is a good opportunity to begin the formation of a medium-term purchase cycle with USDRUB. Current prices are the starting point of the cycle. The next one is 63.60 and the final one is about 62.50. And finally, buying gold from current prices seems to be a very good trading opportunity. Recall it is worth buying with stops.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Spitting Thoughts : the ECB Interest Rate, do we understand it?..and when I say we, I mean us retail traders without financial / economy background. "More hawkish than expected is good for currency" This is what stated in one of the popular website's economic calendar. How do you define more hawkish when it comes to this specific risk event? Is it just simply the headline number "ECB cut rates to 0.25%"? Is it all about the ECB's president speech afterward? What we know, the interest rate is the major mover for the respective currency in the long term. Meaning, what we understood as it would dictate the bearishness or the bullishness of the currency for the next few months or years. If you just follow this website's basic interpretation of the risk event, that more hawkish means good for currency, and hence cutting or increasing rates unfortunately being assumed and oversimplified as binary for retail traders to latch onto. If ECB cut rates, it is "bad" for the currency (bearish) and if ECB increases rates, it is "good" for the currency (bullish). At least that is what I was taught. You look at the chart on Nov 7th, 2013, the ECB cut-rate to 0.25% whilst the consensus (according to what was printed every website that has Economic Calendar) was 0.50%. The general logic dictates that the Euro should be bearish. That day EURUSD was indeed having a major sell-off but look at what happened after that? EURUSD went up for the next 7 months. A similar-ish thing happened (the surprise and the decision to cut the interest rate) on the 5th of June 2014 and the 4th September 2014 but the outcomes couldn't be any more different. The ECB decision in June 2014, the price went up instead of down for the entirety of that trading month, albeit after EURUSD trending down for the last 4 weeks prior to the ECB rate decision. The ECB decision in September 2014, the price finally went according to the general logic that "cut rates = currency bearish", down. However, take a look at the trend at the time. EURUSD was in a bearish trend for the past 2 months prior to the ECB rate decision. Whilst the headline numbers told us, retail traders, the same thing (surprise number, cut rates), the outcome was different. I believe in FUndamental Analysis and this post is by no means to disregard this side of the analytical spectrum but trading based on this risk event is too complex and above our "pay grade". We can see how it creates a spike? Then the least take away that I hope the readers would get from reading this is to NOT to trade EURUSD on the day of the rate decision. If you were already in a position on that day, CLOSE YOUR TRADE. "I have my stop-loss dude, I am good". Erm Wrong! Your stop loss will not be guaranteed to be filled at the price you are putting. SLIPPAGES happen. There's a signal today for EURUSD, trade it, by all means, just make sure you close it before the risk event.
Education
by sufiansaid
EURUSD - Short - Pre ECB Thursday We still see EURUSD moving lower towards 1.09 but first it would have to break the resistance level at $1.102. We are confident it can do this as the dollar sustained gains over the week against the euro despite a weak non farm payroll number, coming in at 130K vs 160K expected. Furthermore, the ECB meeting on Thursday where the ECB is expected to cut rates from -0.4% to -0.5% and introduce additional stimulus could lead to further downside pressure for EURUSD.
Short
by KQMarkets
EUR/USD short term rallyAfter printing a new low near 1.0925, the Euro found enough buyers to recover above the 1.10 level and is now trading near the first resistance at 1.1040 which is the 23.6% Fibo retracement of the latest decline. Also, looking at the recent candles, the recovery doesn't seem to have ended but is also facing critical resistance near 1.1060 and a potential big stimulus package from the ECB, expected to be announced during its monetary policy on the 12th of September. It is worth noting the descending channel the pair is trading in, a potential support/resistance area to trade in. Good luck.
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT