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Election

What a great week! Gold bullish momentum to continue?Wow....What a week right! I'll be honest I didn't bother staying up for most important event but we had BOE, Australia further easing, further bond buying is the theme globally (KEEP THAT IN MIND) and then most important elections, with Biden ahead and Trump wanting to go court. It's all very interesting but let me break down my fundamental and technical view regarding gold which keep in mind is pegged the dollar! Fundamentally: We are in the the area of where most CB's are at 0% mostly all and USA has inflation target of 2% but they do need QE remember, no matter who gets elected they really do need stimulus as Powell stated. Now QE, the larger the package the further decrease of dollar depreciation. When this occurs check out the market, risk on or risk off and we will get further dollar decrease either way driving energy and precious metals further. Gold, I feel is going to head higher short and longer term. Take a deep dive research within economic cycles, plenty of good books out there regarding these fundamentals. Technically: We have broken out of the triangle formation, yes we are still within this range, we could see a pull back towards the areas of: 1916 -1900 areas and if that support holds it's a great buy zone to go further 2000 areas and head higher, 2200-2400 my overall longer/medium target. XAG targets - 30,35,40. Check the ratio of XAU/XAG looking at which is a better pair to buy during this highly bullish momentum and remember, you want a good R/R (Risk/Reward) Don't rush to get into the market. For this moment of time, I doubt if Biden does become president that he can increase taxes as much he was hoping to but I am sure further QE is coming so.. this means...Higher energy prices, commodities, G10 currencies and equities. Key tip: (Aussie out of nice pattern too!!) All the best for the week ahead - Trade safe and follow your plan. Take care, Trade Journal (Just a trade idea, not a recommendation)
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by Trade_Journal
S&P 500, from a different viewA contested election will likely send us sideways and further into the current wedge but with little predictable volatility. Biden win could break us down and accelerate the wedge, giving the index an intra-week target of 2850. Trump win could also send us sideways and further into the current wedge, with the next likely move being to the resistance at 3500. Ultimately leaving open the case for a bull flag, with a conservative target of 4000 for August 2021.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by rolledchange
4
Weekly Recap; Nothing has changedDoing this little recap because I've already seen plenty of outlandish remarks on Twitter about the election and how the markets are overvalued and what not So, as we all know the election results are being prolonged, Trump is whining, and the markets are up 9% over 5 days. Many believe this is overextended and that the markets will eventually simmer down once Biden actually does take office (lets be honest, he probably will). Let's analyze this week and market sentiment. Why have the markets rallied 9% and is this overextended? In short, this is not overextended and the markets will probably continue to climb. Behavioural finance will help explain this. The markets have not actually rallied or overextended on a technical basis, they have instead reconnected to primary/secondary trends after a major sell off. Smart money can help explain the sell off, that is, they knew prices would go down so they sold and jumped back in once the markets bottomed on Friday/Monday (I did too). Seen on the graph we have this trading range between the 2 orange lines, considering there hasn't been a breakout I'd say what happened in the markets this week is perfectly normal. Let's not forget all that cheap money too... Next, lets look at the rationale and what "Wall Street" was actually focusing on: Over the month nothing has changed, and I mean this is the most literal sense, nothing. Fundamentally some stocks surprised on earnings and jumped, and other not so well and fell; this is perfectly normal. Putting these exceptions aside why did the market jump 9% then? Why was the uncertain election perceived so well? An election went by, and yes, we will have a winner. However, the most important take aways are as follows: - Republican senate (say bye bye to Bidens tax hikes and other left-leaning policies) - Trump and Biden economic policies don't defer (there isn't any notable differences) - Economic data is pointing towards recovery Apart from the first 2 points (and maybe the 3rd as icing on the cake) everything else is noise. Covid will be cured, a president will be elected, taxes wont increase...etc. As you can see the clear pattern here: NOTHING HAS OR WILL CHANGE That's pretty much it, we saw a pre-election sell off, then a rally. What's clear here is that Biden won't be as bad on the economy and market as people actually think, in my opinion I think Biden will actually do more good than bad for the economy. With Trump out of office I'm expecting an increase in foreign investment, influx of foreign cash, and *maybe* a first mover advantage in the renewable energy and marijuana industries. Remember: What distinguishes a beginner from an expert is that an expert knows what to ignore. For those who care, i'm up 33% since Monday because I stuck to my guns
TVC:SPX
by RaftoO
USD/JPY and NZD/USD on watch for me today.USD/JPY: • I will not be trading this pair until we know for certain who has won the 2020 US Presidential Election, but if once we do price impulses back up above our lower trend line and a tight flag follows then I'll be looking to get long on the break of the flag. • If this setup doesn't present itself then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place this trade. NZD/USD: • I will not be trading this pair until we know for certain who has won the 2020 US Presidential Election, but if once we do price pushes up to and ideally just above our upper rayline, then regardless of how it does so I'll be waiting for an impulse back down below our upper trend line and a flag and then I'll be looking to get short on the break of the flag. • If price doesn't reach our upper rayline then I'll simply be looking for a convincing impulse back down below our upper trend line and a flag where I'll once again be looking to get short on the break of the flag. • If neither of these setups present themselves then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises. • If there's any ambiguity then I will not place any of these trades.
by StewySongs
Trading After The Presidential ElectionThe aftermath of the election The presidential election is over, so it is safe to start trading again? First of all, as of writing this, we actually don’t know yet who has won the Presidential Election. As of this morning, Biden leads Trump in the Electoral College 264–214, and we are waiting for an update to see who won Nevada. If Biden wins Nevada, this will give him 270 electoral votes exactly enough to win the presidency. The Trump campaign has also filed lawsuits against the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, and Georgia as the race to 270 looks to be nearing its end. As of now, it is still a close race. We won’t have any updates until later today, as Nevada basically said yesterday: “You know what, we’ll keep counting, but stop bothering us, we’ll let you know tomorrow around noon. Until then we will not publish any more results.” we will see what is happening there soon. Looking back to last week, the markets were a little bit worried about a so-called “blue wave.” This means the Democrats would control both the House of Representatives, and The Senate. What it comes down to is, how is power being distributed? As of right now, it seems that the Senate COULD remain Republican. However, we’re not quite sure yet. It is very close, but it doesn’t seem that we have this “blue wave” that the markets were fearing. As for The House of Representatives, it seems that it likely to remain Democratic. So we still don’t know for sure who will control The House, The Senate, or win the Presidency. It’s still a close race. There’s still a lot of “would of, could of” and speculation as far as what will happen if Trump stays in office, or if Biden takes over. How is the election affecting the markets & traders? Yesterday morning, the day after the election, the markets were rallying big before pulling back a little bit. The DJI was up more than 900 points as it continued to shoot up that morning, before pulling back before the close. The S&P 500 was up 2.37% and its the same picture here, jumping up before retracing The NASDAQ was the leader of that day towards the close. Up 4.2% and as high as 5% earlier in the day. What is causing this? As I mentioned, looking at the election results so far, there doesn’t seem to be a “blue wave” coming. This means that there is a division of the powers and not everything in the hand of one party. This is what traders and the markets are looking for right now. A division of the powers could mean fewer regulations on ‘Big Tech’. This is why yesterday, the day after the election we saw big jumps in companies AAPL , AMZN , GOOG , etc. AMZN was up 6% near the close. AAPL was up over 5% and finished up over 4%. NFLX closed up almost 2%, FB closed up almost 8%, and GOOG and MSFT both closed up almost 6%. This is why The NASDAQ was leading the way higher, when before it was lagging behind The S&P 500 and The DJI . News from the election that is affecting the markets In California, voters pushed for Prop. 22. This will allow UBER and LYFT to keep classifying their drivers as independent contractors instead of employees. This was a big win for both companies resulting in both companies being up almost 12% and 13%. Another thing on trader’s minds is the stimulus deal (or lack of one). Recently, Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell said that a stimulus package should be passed by the end of the year. This is what market participants were waiting for, as new cases for the Coronavirus continue to rise. We are up to almost 95,000 new cases of Covid-19 a day, and Dr. Fauci has said that we are positioned really badly as we head into Flu season. It’s important to keep in mind that uncertainty could creep back into the markets as the Trump Campaign is calling for lawsuits, and as new Covid-19 cases continue to rise. Is it safe to trade after the presidential election? The key question is, “How do we trade this?” Before the election, I said that we should all sit on our hands. For those of you trading The Wheel Strategy, we had an opportunity, on election day, to close out a TQQQ 100 put that I sold. This is the ONLY position that I had going into the election. I sold this put last Thursday and I was able to buy it back on election day, for a nice profit of about $250, after only being in the position for 5 days. Now, the next morning when I saw the markets were up, I thought that after the initial excitement we would fill the gap. After we saw that we might not have any results from the election for a few days I thought we would hover where we opened at around $133 or maybe lower. Instead, we went higher so here’s what I did. I sold a call with a strike price of 148. I sold this call for $2.45 which means I took in another $245 in premium. My break-even price on this trade was around $132. At one point I was down $3,000 but I just kept selling more premium according to the rules of The Wheel Strategy. Overall I’ve realized $2,300 by selling premium. If I would have closed out the trade right then, I would have closed it with a profit, but I didn’t plan to do that just yet. Should TQQQ keep dropping, I will be able to buy back the call that I sold against my shares. If my shares are “called away” I would lose $200 of the premium I earned, but would still be up over $2000 on this trade. I checked this position yesterday and it started the day up $1,400, and this is the only position I am in. For now, I am not taking making any other trades. I may start trading again later this week, but for now, I’m just going to sit on my hands. The markets are still rather flat, trending sideways, as market participants are waiting for the final results of the election to come in. Trading After The Presidential Election Summary Whether you like what’s happening with the election so far, or whether you will like the final results of the election or not, as traders it is our jobs to react to this and make the best out of it by adjusting our trading strategies. With still a lot of uncertainty looming, I recommend sitting back and waiting to take any new positions until the air clears. There is a saying among sailors: “You can’t change the wind, but you can adjust your sails.”
TVC:NDQ
by rockwelltrading
IS BITCOIN GOING PARABOLIC?In my earlier analysis I argued that Bitcoin had a massive resistance ahead, namely the June 2019 high and the upper band of the upward channel. It seems that the election frenzy has boosted investor's convidence to push Bitcoin towards 15k. The resistance was broken by such massive bullish force that it could signal a new parabolic move this year and push toward the all-time-high of 20k. If the enormous buying pressure keeps persisting throughout 2020, we could see a new all-time-high soon.
Long
by FieryTrading
SPY - Bearish VibesHey Traders, I usually don't like going against the grain... especially when the SPY has gained nearly 30 points this week alone. But my trader's intuition is telling me that it's moving too fast and I am starting to get bearish vibes. Taking a look the chart above, you can see that as of today, the SPY has moved across the Keltner Channelin a matter of 4 trading days. Looking at the past three times the SPY crossed across the Keltner Channel, it took an average of about 14 trading days, or roughly 3 weeks. Based on where SPY is trading today, my opinion is that SPY will attempt to break out above its recent resistance level of 354.00... but I don't think it will. SPY has over extended past its moving averages by so much that I think it will regress towards the 8 EMA. The stock market is pumped due to the election...but once the count is over... I think the bulls will be taking profits and selling the news. Again, this is just my intuition and I could be wrong, but I am going to stick to my guns and flag this idea with a Short bias.
AMEX:SPYShort
by UnknownUnicorn6775423
My take on BTCUSDMy analysis of BTCUSD is simple and straightforward. We should watch and see if it's going to break above 14.5k or the bears will jump in at the longer-term resistance line. Bitcoin is more likely going to drop to the 13.6k support on the 4HR chart if 14.5k is not broken. If that happens, we might see a further drop to 12k. However, closing daily candles above 14.5k is a sign that Bitcoin will head back to 16k and 17k eventually. I'm more bearish, but the news and the USA elections may not respect technical analysis.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by KurdEx
EUR/USD BUY SIGNAL Hey tradomaniacs, welcome to a new free trading-setup. EUR/USD: Daytrade-Execution Notice: Keep your risk low ahead FOMC. Biden is more likely to win which is why this breakout is a likely scenario! Market-Buy-Order: 1,17350 Stop-Loss: 1,17000 Target 1: 1,17700 Target 2: 1,17965 Target 3: 1,18350 Stop-Loss: 35 pips Risk: 0,5% Risk-Reward: 2,90 LEAVE A LIKE AND A COMMENT - I appreciate every support! =) Peace and good trades Irasor Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me. Any questions? PM me. :-)
Long
by Trading2ez
4
where is bitcoin right now, the silence of bearslet see where are we exactly at upper line of channel that I draw after some days of bloody days after corona that we are for some months! but just broke monthly fib and daily! RSI about 79 ! volume is going a little upper these days and US election result still uncertain (and I guess the effect on BTC uncertain too!) I'm not trading right now and I'm just watching till the election result and see if BTC can hold his position, I guess bull need some rest they are working all these days without rest ! we have 50MA , 100MA , monthly fib, weekly fib near each other so I guess that should be some strong support that we may depend on it safely
by AmirMassoud94