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Election

November 1 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, NewsDescription: An analysis for the week ahead. Points of Interest: Two-Day Balance, 100% Retracement Level And LVN Below $3,200. Technical: Broad-market equity indices ended the week lower with S&P 500 retracing nearly 100% of the rally that began after the September sell-off. During Last Week’s Action: Alongside a materialization of the Federal Reserve's growth risk factors -- a lack of fiscal support, resurgence of the COVID-19 coronavirus, as well as a tightening of financial conditions -- U.S. index products showed increased confidence in their exploration lower. Going back, last week started off with a clear break from balance and acceptance below the October 22 excess low, which suggested a change in directional conviction. The selling intensified, after a failed response at the $3,370 high-volume concentration, and continued into Friday’s close, through the $3,330 level, which marked the upper boundary of a low-volume concentration, initially formed by upside directional conviction. Given Friday’s end-of-day rotation, away from value, the week ended within a two-day balance area, providing a clear trading framework for the week that follows. Therefore, if participants were to initiate and spend time outside of the balance area, then it's likely the market will continue in that particular direction. Otherwise, prices will remain range-bound, favoring short-term, responsive trade. Fundamental: Alongside a resurgence of the COVID-19 coronavirus, in a commentary, Bloomberg discussed the notion that the fear of COVID-19 is more impactful on the economy. In support is the following statement by Variant Perception, an independent economic research provider. bloom.bg “As long as policymakers and the media present a more alarmist view of the virus’s impact than can be justified by a dispassionate analysis of the data, recoveries will continue to stutter. On the other hand, an easing of the fear portrayed would likely allow recoveries to accelerate at a much faster rate.” Continuing, Moody’s Capital Markets Research finds that medical professionals claim a second COVID-19 wave will not exact the same toll on hospitalizations and deaths. bit.ly With that, Bloomberg adds that the focus on mandatory lockdowns is overdone since the mere idea of catching the deadly virus invokes voluntary social distancing, which has a greater impact on mobility than the lockdowns. This is validated by IMF data which found that the lifting of the lockdowns generally had a more limited impact than imposing one. As a result, Variant Perception suggests that negative coverage of COVID-19 be lightened. Key Events: Monday: Markit Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending, Presidential Election. Tuesday: Factory Orders. Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Change, Balance of Trade, ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity, ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment, ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices, EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change, EIA Distillate Stocks Change. Thursday: Continuing Jobless Claims, Initial Jobless Claims, Fed Interest Rate Decision, Fed Press Conference. Friday: Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Change, Average Hourly Earnings, Average Weekly Hours, Nonfarm Payrolls Private, Participation Rate, Wholesale Inventories, Consumer Credit Change. Recent News: The U.S. faces the biggest week of 2020 with the election, Fed, and jobs report. bloom.bg High-yield spreads are showing a muted response to ultra-high equity volatility. bit.ly Independent traders doubt new lockdowns in Europe will lead to a further oil rout. bloom.bg BlackRock Inc (NYSE: BLK) will benefit from its 2021 ETF expansion in Brazil. bit.ly Chevron Corp (NYSE: CVX) and Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE: XOM) cut spending. reut.rs Honeywell International Inc (NYSE: HON) profit beats as cost cuts soften sales hit. reut.rs The October equity market sell-off anticipates a meaningful drop in business sales. bit.ly Tech companies will have to explain how algorithms work under a new EU ruling. reut.rs Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) plans to test its COVID-19 vaccine in ages 12-18. reut.rs Cboe Global Markets Inc (BATS: CBOE) tops profit views as retail activity supports. reut.rs Under Armour Inc (NYSE: UA) sees demand for sneakers, masks driving revenue. reut.rs Walmart Inc (NYSE: WMT) unit Sam’s Club and DoorDash team on medicine delivery. reut.rs Joe Biden’s clean-energy ‘revolution’ faces challenge to match fossil-fuel jobs, pay. reut.rs U.S consumer spending beats forecasts; worries over decreasing government money. reut.rs Federal Reserve cut loan minimums, easing terms for Main Street Lending Program. reut.rs Key Metrics: Sentiment: 35.3% Bullish, 29.4% Neutral, 35.3% Bearish as of 10/28/2020. bit.ly Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) -78,315,991 as of 10/30/2020. bit.ly Dark Pool Index: (Trending Neutral) 43.6% as of 10/30/2020. bit.ly Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me. In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by Physik
2
VIX Analysis of 1992-2016 Elections & What it Means for 2020Summary Evaluating the historic change in the VIX from the 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2016 elections we can see that Q4 of each election year is a downtrend and results in lower volatility until the inauguration in January of the ensuing year, regardless of the result. **CLINTON ADDED To chart AFTER POST PUBLISHING** Will 2020 be different? Other factors to consider Nov. 4th is a Wednesday/Contract Expiration Day DJIA, IXIC and SPX are all sitting on resistances-flipped-supports from ATH beginning of 2020 Should be interesting to watch on several fronts.
TVC:VIX
by kingthies
23
TRUMPTRUMP !!! 🔻🤫 Tomorrow and the day after tomorrow, we will have to buy and sell the Corona chart, of course, if this chart of the American elections is correct! 😅 This analysis is a personal opinion and so far it has not been proven that he technically predicted the elections, but I think that the absence of either of these two will certainly not be useful for us Iranians with this mismanagement and ... maybe temporary and Greenhouse) ... Unless 13 Aban (5 days until the US elections), according to him (Trump), is not present for the elections and hits everything (I remembered someone's peak, in front of the communists of the world). Translated by Google Translator (I hope he translated correctly)
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by Mojtaba-Mirkazempour
BidenAnd Joe must ... But I would like to put the same text of Trump's analysis before here! TRUMP !!! 🔻🤫 Tomorrow and the day after tomorrow, we will have to buy and sell the Corona chart, of course, if this chart of the American elections is correct! 😅 This analysis is a personal opinion and so far it has not been proven that he technically predicted the elections, but I think that the absence of either of these two will certainly not be useful for us Iranians with this mismanagement and ... maybe temporary and Greenhouse) ... Unless 13 Aban (5 days until the US elections), according to him (Trump), is not present for the elections and hits everything (I remembered someone's peak, in front of the communists of the world). Translated by GoogleTranslator (I hope he translated correctly)
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by Mojtaba-Mirkazempour
SPY 29/10/2020Hi, traders. My name is Lukas and I am a beginner in trading, respectively, I only trade 12 months. But that means I have to do the necessary analyzes without it I can't trade. I want to show you how I work on myself and document my beginnings. I use Vix and my strategy is built on to return to average. I highlight the important support levels and resistances that flow from the volume profile, all drawn on graph. These zones determine the ability to respond in some way to the market from 1 to 3, with 1 being the largest. Short description of analysis: First thing, that 3/11 will be president election. Mr. Market is unpredictable, we need to expect any situation. My desicion on Market. There are two options: 1. Option – the Market react on support zone (cca 325 USD), because VIX is at 40 points, what is reaction zone. 2. Option – The market break this support zone (325 USD) and it´ll continued at another support zone (cca 300 USD) Therefore, i decide to split the risk of entry, that I´ll been split on 2 half parts, in case of falling, we´ll average the price. I think, that rather averagating the price than betting all on one price Trade carefully! Of course, my analysis does not serve like market forecasts and I am not responsible for your trades if you use my analysis for your own trades. Please Follow me on Twitter :) Thanks!
AMEX:SPYLong
by Lucas_Sochulak
AUDCAD pair is looking obvious for trend reverseWe are looking audcad for trend reverse pattern BUT we need more proofs then only picture. We are giving you away possible options. Trend description Trend way hasn't reverse yet. Price is at first testing perioud. The question is: Are we going to continue sell? If price will follow one of breaking options, your job as Elite trader is to focus at breaking spots and momentum story. 1. Option Buyers are going to test lower low straight away 2. Option, might happen with strong volume from sellers side - use our Elite indicator tool and follow momentum story 3. Option - Buyers might push price even higher. If this is going to happen, do not trade this until first resistance level is broken and retraced. Trending: Possible sell reverse. Still at decision zone. If trend will reverse, then price could go much lower then you could imagine. Thank you for following us Don't miss our every day analysis. Also do not miss AUDJPY D1 analysis from yesterday * Elitefxacademy
Short
by EliteFxAcademy
NVDA CORRECTION MORE BEARS TO COMENvidia is pulling back, no prominent reason or news article that could have caused this, that leaves the next possible scenarios: - NVDA was rated overvalued by many analysts and is now drawing back - Covid market volatility is causing unpredictable movements - Upcoming US elections, many worry about the China tension According to the chart we are close to the first possible support. However if that level doesn't hold, next support line is only around $485. Yahoo Finance estimates a -21% pullback as an overvalued stock. That leaves us at roughly 418. eToro estimates a low of $400. However, the long term outlook is still positive. Monitor these 4 indicators to look out for a trend reversal and buy the dip as low as you can. Hit like if you found this helpful. Thanks, Ev
NASDAQ:NVDA
by BlockTechEv
S&P500 LongTerm Outlook PotentialsGetting above February 2020's ATH's seemed very bullish indeed, the most aggressive V-Shaped Recovery in the history of the S&P500 . However with elections fast approaching, along with the expected volatility, we must be ready to change our bias in a moments notice. We have a few higher time frame gaps that have caught my eye, particularly two that did not achieve a full-bodied gap fill on 3-Day and Weekly Time Frame Views, located at approximately 3350$ and 2800$ respectively. Price is currently rejecting from a trend line quite strongly, however if this level is broken to the upside, we have the potential for price to make new ATH's towards the Price Channel Midline and Price Channel High. However, if this gap at 3350$ fills, that will put us outside of the Price Channel Low, where we could potentially waterfall down to 2800$.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by DrCatherineHalsey
USD Index Pre/Post ElectionUSA Election coming to a close but take caution as volatility can still occur. Here we are looking "left" to see what has happened in the past elections. Uncertainty = volatile market Certainty = trending market Pre elections we have seen USD weakness and right after we see USD strength in the remaining year months. With USD technicals in the buy zone and a retrace that has not yet occured from a trendline break we should see USD strength as well after the election. But as always, remember risk management when trading USD pairs into the election. I'd personally advise staying out and looking at other pairs until the election is officially over. Good luck and let me know if there are any questions. Charles V CVFX Management Trading made Simple
FX:USDOLLAR
by cvfxwealth
I got my bet on a short for Gold (XAU). Gold has been in a uptrend since March, however I see the cup is about to tip over. Even though this hard commodity is the go to for many investors I’m predicting the price to fall drastically once everyone see how strong United States will stand against the last leg of the elections and hopefully the more business savvy candidate comes out on top. The USD will surely tank depending on how November 3 goes. I hope y’all have those pending orders ready.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by HeyWhit
VIX Approximations Update (Oct 26th-Dec 2nd 2020)S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) (October 26th through December 2nd 2020) Just making an update to a previous VIX forecast that I see going outside my last expected ranges, I felt it necessary when checking on SPX trends, especially with yesterday's start to a drop in E-mini futures. See below for previous guesses: Thanks for tuning in :) Disclaimer, I am not responsible for any losses incurred while attempting to use my data, I hope this can prove to be some sort of learning tool for some and give insight as to how I personally come up with my own numbers. Take into full consideration this could be a completely bad forecast. Cheers
CBOE:VIX
by Hambooger
The US Market is waitingThe US elections next week bring the market to a point where all we have to do is wait and of course, prepare our trading account for the crucial hours when it will be revealed who will lead the country in the next 4 years which are expected to be very difficult and challenging especially in the economic and social aspects. Technical analysis aspect We can clearly see the market prepare itself for the election day based on the S&P500 triangle pattern, the breakout will take place next week between Tuesday to Thursday How will the identity of the winner affect the market? See the post from the 5th. Strong fluctuations in the leading US indices are not expected during this week, and even if the upcoming earnings reports show unexpected results, it will be a sharp but temporary and short-term reaction. What should you do until the election? Portfolio protection: If you are a low-risk investor, avoid trading assets that are considered volatile such as Bitcoin, low market cap stocks, exotic currencies, and oil. Get Ready: With a proper post-election trading plan that includes exit points (stop loss & take profit), accurate and right ratio of the exposure based on account balance, a good trader can make around 20% within a short period of time (1-2 weeks) after the election. The 20% can be $100 or $100,000 (depending on the account balance), in addition, a large balance reduces risk by spreading the risk across many assets. Increase the account balance is a-must in such events if the current account balance is low or insufficient in order to split the risk across 5 different asset at the same time.
TVC:SPX
by FinanCollege