US500 at Critical Resistance - Weekly Chart Breakdown📊 US500 Weekly Chart Analysis
Taking a close look at the US500 on the weekly timeframe, we can see price has now traded directly into a bearish weekly order block 🧱 — a key distribution zone where smart money activity often emerges. At this level, the market is trading at a premium 💰 and appears to be overextended 📈.
⚠️ From a risk management standpoint, I’d advise extreme caution — the current conditions could set the stage for a sharp retracement, especially as we approach week’s end. This level aligns with areas where institutional players may look to offload risk or reverse exposure.
🔁 A potential pullback from here would not be surprising, given the elevated context and technical structure.
📚 This breakdown is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
Emini
Bulls and Bears zone for 05-01-2025S&P 500 is going to have a gap up Open and finally closing gap from early last month.
Also traders could be taking profit after yesterday's big UP move.
Level to watch: 5643 ---5645
Reports to watch:
US : PMI Manufacturing Final 945am
US : ISM Manufacturing Index 1000am
US : Construction Spending 1000am
S&P 500 E-mini Futures: Bullish Momentum Meets Key Resistance📈 Technical Analysis: S&P 500 E-mini Futures (ES1!) – April 2025
🚀 Market Structure & Price Action for US500
The daily chart shows the S&P 500 E-mini Futures in a bullish recovery after a significant correction. The recent rally has pushed price back toward previous swing highs, an area likely to contain resting buy-side liquidity. This move suggests that the market is currently in a markup phase, but is now approaching a critical resistance zone where profit-taking and counter-trend activity may emerge.
🧠 Wyckoff Perspective
From a Wyckoff methodology standpoint, the recent price action resembles a classic accumulation-to-markup transition. The sharp selloff in March and early April appears to have formed a selling climax (SC) followed by an automatic rally (AR) and a secondary test (ST). The current advance could be interpreted as a sign of strength (SOS), but the proximity to previous highs raises the risk of an upthrust (UTAD) or a bull trap if supply emerges.
🌊 Liquidity & Potential Pullback
As price trades into the prior highs, it is likely "eating" buy-side liquidity—triggering stops and breakout orders. This process often leads to a liquidity sweep, where price briefly exceeds resistance before reversing as large players offload positions. If the market fails to sustain above these highs, a pullback or even a reversal could be initiated, especially if volume and momentum wane.
🌐 Market Sentiment & Fundamentals
Current sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with the S&P 500 E-mini trading above 5,500 and recent sessions showing resilience despite mixed earnings and macroeconomic uncertainty. The broader market is supported by expectations of stable Fed policy and robust corporate earnings, but there are persistent concerns about inflation and global growth. According to Markets Insider, the ES futures are up 0.59% recently, reflecting a positive but not euphoric tone. However, as noted by Investing.com, there are signs the market could be setting up for a reversal if bulls fail to maintain momentum.
🛠️ Trade Ideas
🟢 Bullish Scenario: If price breaks and holds above the previous highs with strong volume and closes, consider a long entry targeting the next psychological resistance (e.g., 5,700–5,800). Place stops just below the breakout level to manage risk. This would confirm continued demand and a potential extension of the markup phase.
🔴 Bearish Scenario: If price fails to hold above the highs and forms a reversal pattern (e.g., bearish engulfing, upthrust), look for a short entry targeting the first support zone (e.g., 5,300–5,200). Stops should be placed above the failed breakout. This would align with a Wyckoff upthrust after distribution and a likely liquidity sweep.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading futures involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Please conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
Bulls and Bears zone for 04-16-2025Earlier this week S&P 500 has formed a Death Cross which could be significant or not only time will tell.
Any test of yesterday's Close could provide direction for the day.
Level to watch: 5354 --- 5356
Reports to watch:
U.S. Housing Market Index at 10:00AM EST
U.S. Jerome Powell Speaks at 1:30PM EST
NASDAQ Futures Long Setup: Pullback Entry After Tariff BoostMarket Outlook – April 13, 2025
Quick recap: In my last public analysis, I mentioned watching the 18,350–18,000 zone for signs of support — a level stacked with confluence (50–61.8% Fib, EMA, VWAP, pivot). Price broke down deeper than expected but responded beautifully:
✅ Tagged 18,000 almost to the tick
✅ Rejected hard at the 61.8 Fib
✅ Respected the 50 Fib on the way back up
All solid signs of strength.
Now with tariff exemptions announced today (bullish for tech/Nasdaq), I’m opening the door to more long setups this week.
Here’s What I’m Watching:
🔹 Scenario A: Pullback into the 18,575–18,500 zone (first dotted white line). If price reclaims structure or gives me something clean — EMA bounce, VWAP tag, candle pattern — I’ll look for longs.
🔹 Scenario B: If that level breaks or I miss the first shot, I’ll look for a second chance around 18,000–18,300. Same deal: not jumping in blindly, waiting for a setup to form.
To be clear — these are areas of interest, not automatic trades. I want clean structure and confirmation before entering.
Let’s see how it plays out. Will update if/when I take a position. Stay sharp. 📈
European session - Futures, another day down?Each morning I connect at 9am italian time. I look at Asian indexes, then FTMIB, FDAX to see how Europe is responding to the tariffs story.
I start watching ES NQ YM GC CL in early US premarket. If volatility is good we can have some shots otherwise waiting for news (often 8:30 ET ) or 9:30 US open.
This morning is a waiting for me.
FTMIB is rejecting now the 33000 JLInes but too early to start trading it.
#202513 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Last week I wrote that we need a proper channel down and the past week was the worst case scenario for the bulls. We could not even get to the 50% retracement and turned down violently again. There is a small chance for the bulls to make this a double bottom and go sideways but as of now that is very very low probability. More likely is that we have formed the top of the channel and will get a big second leg down to 18000 or lower. If we go down below 19000, my thesis is that we go down for 2 more weeks and then earnings will decide on the next impulse. For now the technicals are clear, market could not even retrace 50%, we turned around the daily 20ema and volume on the down move is picking up again. Everything points to a bear trend.
current market cycle: strong bear trend
key levels: 19000 - 20500
bull case: Bulls running for the exits. They have some previous support at the 2024-09 low 19073 but that is most likely not stopping this freight train down. Next big support is at 18000/18100 which is my W3 target. Only question now is if we find buyers tomorrow who want to keep the market above 19000. It’s not impossible that we could see 1-2 more days of stalling around 19000 but given the current structure the selling is just too strong to look for any longs.
Invalidation is below 19000.
bear case: Bears have now erased about a year of gains and we are heading lower. Friday was another strong sell signal and bears now want to close the monthly bar at the very low to also produce a huge sell signal on the weekly and monthly charts. The selling is strong enough for at least a decent sized second leg and the measured move leads to 16200 which is between my year-end-special target of 17500 and the bull trend line from the covid lows. Plan for the next 2 weeks is the W3 and W4 where I expect W3 to hit 18000 and W4 could retest 19000.
Invalidation is above 20600.
short term: Clear bear trend now once we drop below 19000. W3 should get us to around 18000 while W4 could be good for a retest of 19000. No longs for me what so ever. Big bear trend line from 22450 has to hold.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-03-16: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish, given in my year-end special. Clear W1 of this bear trend. Market now has to close below 19000 to confirm W3. Depending on how deep W3 goes, W5 will either reach only around 17500 or the bull trend line around 16000.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added most likely upper bear trend line and adjusted the 5-wave series.
S&P 500 – Unstable Ground, Smart Money Seeks Stability🚨 S&P 500 – Unstable Ground, Smart Money Seeks Stability 🚨
“Markets don’t like uncertainty. Money flows where confidence is strong, and right now… that’s NOT here.”
🔥 Key Concerns:
✅ U.S. Policies Creating Instability – A crisis-driven environment shakes investor confidence.
✅ S&P Struggling to Hold Strength – Momentum is weak, smart money is hesitant.
✅ Blue Box = First Resistance Zone – A tough level to break, especially in this macro climate.
💡 The Game Plan:
Short Bias from the Blue Box – Until proven otherwise, this level is resistance.
LTF Breakdowns & CDV Confirmation = High-Probability Shorts – We don’t guess, we react.
No Clean Break Above? The Trend Remains Fragile.
“Markets punish uncertainty. Right now, the S&P is walking on thin ice—be cautious, be tactical.” 🔥📉
I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions.
My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all, but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups.
If you would like to learn how to use the heatmap, cumulative volume delta and volume footprint techniques that I use below to determine very accurate demand regions, you can send me a private message. I help anyone who wants it completely free of charge.
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📊 BTC.D: Retest of Key Area Highly Likely
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2025-01-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: 1h 20ema is flat as your first girlfriend. Don’t over analyze this trading range. 50% of it is around 21560 and we are seeing bulls buying dips, taking the stairs while bears violently crash the elevator down in between. Will likely see a bigger impulse tomorrow or Monday. I have no bigger opinion on which side will get it.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 21300 - 21780
bull case: Bulls need to close the big gap to 21900 and maybe some points above to get all the stops and turn the market truly neutral again. For now bears are defending it well, which is bad for the bulls. Bulls have going for them that they are printing higher highs and higher lows and are trading above the daily 20ema but as long as the gap stays open, they are not doing enough.
Invalidation is below 21400.
bear case: Bears only argument is the open gap to 21900 but other than that, they are fumbling it again. If try get to 21450 or below tomorrow and fail again to print lower lows below 21350, odds favor the bulls to rally hard into the weekend.
Invalidation is above 21900.
short term: Neutral as can be. 21560 is my mid point for this and mean reversing was profitable the past 2 days.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-27: High’s are most likely in. Any short with stop 22200 is good. I’d like to see 20000 over the next 2-3 weeks.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying 21450 or selling above 21700 has been good the past 2 days. Do it until it clearly is not working anymore.
2025-01-21 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: One again we saw a huge Globex sell spike but now follow-through. Bulls are on their way to 6100 and there we will see how many buyers we can find to retest the ath 6186. Plan is simple, trade the bull channel/expanding triangle until clearly broken.
current market cycle: trading range (obvious bull trend on lower time frames)
key levels: 6000 - 6100 (above 6100 comes 6200 into play)
bull case: Bulls are in BTFD mode and making higher highs again. 6100 is their next target and the last resistance until 6186. Problem for the bulls is that we get decent sell spikes and holding through them is tough. That is probably why we see bigger profit taking when we print new highs.
Invalidation is below 6000.
bear case: Bears ask themselves how many pushes on whatever time frame bulls can honestly get. The 6100 likely won’t hold but how many are willing to buy above 6100 when we could easily pull-back 100 points. We will find out tomorrow. Bears don’t have many arguments. We have a clear bull pattern upwards and the best they can hope for is to scalp short on new highs for a decent pull-back. Until bears can close consecutive bars below 6000, I would not look for bigger shorts. Given the current erratic price action due to orange man tweets, it’s a wild ride. Trade smaller and with wider stops.
Invalidation is above 6120.
short term: Bullish for 6100, then Neutral until clearly breaking out above again. Targets above are 6186 and then 6200.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying 6000, duh. Otherwise literally every touch of the 1h 20ema.
2025-01-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: After hours selling was strong, especially on nasdaq. Sp500 is still well above 5950, which is my line in the sand for bulls. Below the odds for the bears increase big time. I still lean bullish for a retest of 6000 and I do think bears need stronger selling (spike + channel) to trap late bulls. Today was a trending trading range where all bars overlapped big time. The odds that we break below such a day after that rally are very low.
current market cycle: trading range (bear channel/wedge on the daily tf)
key levels: 5900 - 6030
bull case: Bulls want to chop around 6000 to find more acceptance and break above the big bear channel. Their next target is the prior high 6068. On the previous short squeeze we melted to 6068, pulled back hard for 60 points and then print a lower high. I still expect bulls to get a lower high closer to 6000, if not the breakout above.
Invalidation is below 5950.
bear case: Bears want to get below 5950 and then test the breakout price of 5918. The 50% retracement is also there at 5913. For now I don’t think today’s price action was that bearish but the after hours selling is weird to say the least. It’s a bad spot for both sides to trade at 5960ish.
Invalidation is above 6020.
short term: Bearish below 5950 and bullish only above 6020. Neutral in between. Again.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Shorting 6000 was decent many many times.
Bulls and Bears zone for 01-08-2025Yesterday S&P 500 sold off and closed near LOD which could caution momentum traders.
Any test of ETH session High could provide direction for the day.
Level to watch: 5956 --- 5958
News to watch:
US FOMC Minutes --- 2:00PM EST
Wishing everyone Happy, Healthy and Wealthy Year !!!