SPX setup 9/20/22Trading inside yesterday's move up and near the weekly opening price.
Currently inside a 15m+FVG on no volume so I'll be paying attention to this area for the time being. The times and sales and level 2 aren't showing anyone big trading for now, so we wait.
I'm neutral to bullish for the short term but if we trade near the daily and the 15m-FVG and reject, I don't mind reversing the position in the opposite direction.
Fairvaluegap
US30 into the Fed rate Light news week going into the Sunday opening until Wednesday when the interest rate is released. We could have one or two thing happen until the Wednesday release:
1) We see priced in data and a direction chosen into the lead up
2) We see price stall out until we enter the day into the rate release.
This is a market moving data release so this is one to take with precaution after the CPI data implied a 75-100 bp increase.
NAS 100 into the Fed Rate Light news week going into the Sunday opening until Wednesday when the interest rate is released. We could have one or two thing happen until the Wednesday release:
1) We see priced in data and a direction chosen into the lead up
2) We see price stall out until we enter the day into the rate release.
This is a market moving data release so this is one to take with precaution after the CPI data implied a 75-100 bp increase.
SPX trading into Fed rate releaseLight news week going into the Sunday opening until Wednesday when the interest rate is released. We could have one or two thing happen until the Wednesday release:
1) We see priced in data and a direction chosen into the lead up
2) We see price stall out until we enter the day into the rate release.
This is a market moving data release so this is one to take with precaution after the CPI data implied a 75-100 bp increase.
Dxy divergence with EurUsdBe wary at this moment when trying to trade EurUsd. Dxy seems bullish but EU is very choppy and price action is undecisive. Smt divergence is evindent right now. Below chart is EurUsd. Liquidity is trapped on both sides so trading the range is the ideal thing right now. August is choppy too.
Happy trading
NAS100 - D1 Bearish Order BlockComment Ideas and/or any reasons why you would or wouldn't take this trade!
Was late to post this on Friday.
Going short on NAS100.
Setup:
Sell Limit @ 12563.58
S/L: 12682.50
T/P 1: 11925.23
T/P 2: 11802.45
Why?
- NAS100 broke market structure to make a new low - Start looking for Bearish opportunities
- Retraced back up past 0.79 & 0.759(OTEs) on Fib filling market imbalance left from previous sell
- Market imbalance left behind from previous buys (FVGs)
- Current momentum is Bearish
- Strong rejection from Bearish OB
- D1 Structure tends to be more reliable than lower timeframes
Why not?
- NAS100 has the potential to break bearish OB and create a new high
- Higher timeframes have larger stop-losses (Higher risk but also higher reward🧠)
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Remember, only risk up to 5% of your account per trade. I have a very small account of €200. I am risking ~€14 on this trade with the potential to lock in €71 profit - so I am risking more than normal by a slight margin BUT only because of how great the setup looks.
This material is for educational purposes ONLY.
Trade smart.
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Glossary:
OTE = Optimal Trade Entry (Most opportune place to enter a trade)
OB = Order Block (Where price is likely to make a reversal)
FVG = Fair Value Gap (Gaps left when only sellers/buyers were moving price down/up)
DXY getting juicyDollar is resting below equilibrium (50%) of the marked range making it ideal for buying opportunities. Price action is indicating a bullish dollar in the coming weeks by forging buyside liquidity in the form of retail sell stops above the marked relative equal wicks. Large retail liquidity should get wiped. Expecting price to react from the marked institutional candle (the bullish orderblock +ob) to rebalance the fair value gap above the liquidity. Those are our targets for now.
Stay well !
Bias ConfirmedHi everyone,
Yesterday I talked about how Bitcoin might break lower time frame resistance and revisit the 24k level (link in the description)
As for right now, we are forming a head and shoulders bullish pattern on the lower time frame and we are now filling a gap created after breaking the last high with a momentum candle.
Therefore, I think that we are still on yesterday's plan where we will break the previous high and use it as a support when retesting it.
Please comment if you have any questions, I will try my best to answer them.
Thank you😊
matic bull flag + H&Smatic broke the bull flag after a massive run from the neckline of the head and shoulders if we clear this resistance here we can easily see 1.17
Formation of clean bullish Wolfe Waves on BitcoinBullish Wolfe Waves appear on Bitcoin's 1 hour chart. This could be an indicator for short term reversal. Point 5 having a relative increase in trading volume makes me more confident in this setup.
I would be using the 1-hour Fair Value Gaps / Imbalances as areas to take some profits with my last target being the local high marked with a green line. Golden pocket doesn't look that significant as it was visited with a reaction prior but we might see another retracement there or from an area close below it if we decided to dive a bit deeper with point 5.
Bear in mind that FOMC is really close (pun intended!) and an interest hike might mess things up for those longing.
Trade safe.
Continuation or sell off? US30 - Higher timeframe outlook:
Price coming into weekly downtrend supply along with filling a nice imbalance, good potential zone for a reversal, however price could continue bullish all the way towards the D point of the crab filling these imbalances before closing back below the weekly structure, (As daily and 4H are both bullish).
If we fail to break the 1H/4H lows i'm going to look for buys towards that D point as Crypto/stocks have been super bullish this week too, and the rally could continue, however if we start failing highs/breaking structure i'll look for sells, will keep an eye on structure and market sentiment!
This crab is quite probable though, one of my favorite harmonics to trade for reliability especially the C/D leg for direction, but if this pattern completes without any major pullbacks it will be a more or less guaranteed big swing back down, so 100% get alarms on that D point zone! (Probably for next week if it completes so no rush there!)
Let me know your thoughts!
* Disclaimer **
These ideas I never trade until the end target with my initial lots, I focused on high probable entries with higher lots and use a specific partial taking strategy giving me a very high win rate and take most of my profits very early, I only leave a small % of my capital to run the entire trade. On the flip side im constantly monitoring LTF momentum and will close early if things change, these analysis's are for research purposes only.
Gold 1DGold has recently touched an imp 1680 level.All the downside liquidity hunted.Considering its bearish trend , it is retracing back to trendline.
I have marked Fair value Gap + Bearish order block which coincide with trendline thus making it High probability Bullish move upto 1800.Furthermore Dollar Index sliding lower increases probability of my setup.
TP level - 1800
#Eth PullBack - Two Options that could Happen according to SMTSMT is Smart Money Theory - Please see my previous published posts for the definition.
We have the price coming back down to fill the 4 hour fair value gap void (1315-1288). If it happens to get below that The Second option would be the Fair Value gap below that (1182-1148). It could reach higher before it falls back to these areas. But price always seeks imbalances and liquidity.
Good Luck and Happy Trading
nasdaq daily perspectivehellow fellow traders. hope you guys are having a splendid journey thus far. for those of you who were eager to see new ideas from me, i apologise for the wait, i was busy with my private students, however im back for this 3rd qauter, if you want to know more about my course leave a comment below. so far as we all know i have been 90% bearish on nas for the swing and it is delivering perfect down movement. this week has 3 possibilities in my perspective. we could see price continue to give us lower prices or a retest of the daily/weekly orderblock, if price decides to break the daily order block then we can expect a deeper retracement into the weekly swing high.
$XMR - Short the week - It should bounce back around $105 *SMT**SMT* = Smart Money Theory = everything you think that is not retail related to trading. First, SMT does not believe that triangles, wedges , trendlines , channels, harmonics, etc. has any effect on how price reacts. I'm Sorry, but you won't convince me that Bitcoin knows it has created a triangle and that it knows how to react from that? It does and will remember price levels, that's it. The second is to recognize that the price is not random, it is set by an algorithm controlled by those that control the asset. The Third thing to remember is price will move toward attacking where there is Liquidity (Equal Highs, Equal Lows, phantom Trendlines etc.) and Balance (Fair Value Gaps, Liquidity Voids.) That's the basics. The rest is very unique in the vocabulary you need to have and the concepts that wrap around these ideas.*
As XMR just finished creating the Break of Structure on the low side and came up short of breaking the structure on the high side, it appears that this was just a runned attempt at a bearish order block to be rejected back down into the last 4 hour fair value gap area. I marked the weekly consequential encroachment (Half of the weekly FVG, $121-122) and entered short there....As it's rejected it starts to head toward the bottom of the 4 hour FVG which is also a confluence at the 79-80% which is where most rebounds happen. and that number is 104-105 as an opening. On this one I could go either way but the earlier I enterered the less of % wager I would press and low leverage. The later the stage it gets the later you enter the more you can wager and add leverage.
And taking from the smart money playbook the earlier and sharper the price rises during the week , the more it will fall as the week goes on. Low possibly being on Friday or Saturday, looking for it to get around 105 by then.
If you watch the analysis week by week, It's an obvious pattern.
WEEK 1:
WEEK 2:
WEEK 3:
Current Week:
Good luck and happy trading.