Get started

Fundamental Analysis

Gold is still volatile, buy at 3298-3305 in the US market 📊Comment analysis Gold prices need economic news to break through the sideways price range of around 3300. Today, continue to wait and see around 3310, waiting for the right time to enter the market in time. 💰Strategy package Long positions: 💲Actively participate in gold around 3298-3305 points, with a profit target around 3320 points Short positions: 💲Actively participate in gold around 3320-3330 points, with a profit target around 3303 points 💢Precise sniping, follow the trading strategy = easy money
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Labaron
Selling Options On Hims & Hers Could Yield 20% Or MoreAfter recommending Hims & Hers NYSE:HIMS as a 'Strong Buy' from $6, we recently downgraded it due to its stretched valuation. Since then, the stock has dropped over 40%, but we don't yet see it as a clear value proposition at current levels. HIMS combines two critical elements: - High lifetime customer value with low churn - High gross margins (customers generate substantial gross profit) This combination gives management strategic flexibility with cash deployment. The sticky business model makes sense: customers treating conditions like hair loss or weight management have little incentive to switch providers. Recent financial results have been impressive: - Robust YoY revenue growth (~50% expected this year, ~20% for following years) - EPS turning positive with significant operating leverage - Potential to reach ~$400M in operating income in the near future At ~$27.50 per share, HIMS trades at: - 4.1x sales - 52x TTM net income While our bullish projections suggest this multiple could compress to 18-20x within 12-18 months, we'd prefer entry at $18-$20 per share. Given our outlook, selling put options presents an attractive alternative: Selling the August 15th $18 strike puts: - Premium: $1.30 per share ($130 per contract) - Required margin: ~$1,670 per contract - Yield: 7.7% over 112 days (27.7% annualized) This strategy offers two favorable outcomes: If HIMS stays above $18: Keep the premium (27.7% annualized yield) If HIMS falls below $18: Buy shares at an effective 35% discount from current price (plus premium) At $18 per share, HIMS would trade at ~36x TTM earnings - a much more attractive entry point. Risks: - If HIMS collapses suddenly, put sellers must still purchase at $18 - HIMS remains highly volatile - Two potential earnings reports during the option period could increase volatility - Stock could potentially trade into the lower teens Despite these risks, the risk/reward ratio appears favorable, and we maintain a 'Buy' rating on HIMS.
NYSE:HIMSLong
by PropNotes
ASML Could Significantly Outperform Over The Next 5 YearsWhat Makes a Compounder? "Compounder" has become a buzzword in investment circles, but we define it simply: a company that delivers higher-than-average returns for longer-than-average periods. The formula is basic economics - a compounder excels at both sides of the supply-demand equation: Demand side: Growing revenue and profits drives investor interest Supply side: Reducing share count increases each investor's ownership percentage Why ASML Makes the Cut NASDAQ:ASML demonstrates classic compounder characteristics: Growing Demand - Revenue growth from 11B in 2018 to 32B today - Net income increase from $2.6B to $9.3B in the same period - Dominance in advanced chip manufacturing equipment, particularly EUV and DUV technology Decreasing Supply - Consistent share count reduction through buyback programs - Management's clear focus on shareholder value Why Now Is the Time to Buy The current buying opportunity exists because: - ASML is trading at the lower end of its historical P/E and P/S ranges - The recent drawdown is among the deepest in years, comparable only to the 2022 tech slowdown - The current pullback reflects cyclical semiconductor industry dynamics, not fundamental issues - TTM revenue has already hit all-time highs, but the stock hasn't caught up Risks to Consider - Potential semiconductor manufacturer CAPEX delays affecting ASML's backlog - Geopolitical risk with Taiwan, where many customers including TSMC are located - Premium valuation relative to broader market
NASDAQ:ASMLLong
by PropNotes
4
Mexican Peso Faces Potential Short-Term PressureThe Mexican Peso is approaching a significant supply area, a confluence of factors that suggests a potential short-term bearish trend. Daily retail trader positions show a notable concentration of long positions, while seasonal patterns hint at a shift in market sentiment. This combination creates an environment ripe for a short position on futures or a long position in CFDs, if the bearish bias strengthens. This convergence of supply, bullish retail sentiment, and seasonal influence raises the possibility of a corrective move in the Mexican Peso. The sustained presence of long positions in the daily market could be vulnerable to a price reversal, particularly as seasonal factors typically favor a weaker Peso during this period. While a short position on the future market presents the opportunity for profit on any price decline, astute investors should closely monitor the market's reaction to key economic releases for confirmation of the short-term bearish bias. Caveat: This analysis is based on current market conditions and should not be considered financial advice. Further technical analysis and fundamental assessments are recommended before making any trading decisions. ✅ Please share your thoughts about 6M1! in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
CME:6M1!Short
by FOREXN1
1
Gold Price Outlook – Key Levels to Watch (XAU/USD)The price action is currently consolidating between a defined **support zone** around the 3287–3293 level and a **price ceiling** near the 3357–3360 region. - **Support Zone:** Price has shown multiple reactions in this area, indicating strong interest from buyers. This zone has held well historically and could act as a potential launch point if tested again. - **Price Ceiling:** The highlighted area near 3357–3360 has acted as a barrier for upward movement. A sustained move above this zone may open the door to further gains. - **Projected Path:** The potential price behavior illustrated on the chart suggests a dip toward the support area, followed by a possible upward move targeting the upper boundary. This projection is based on previous market structure and recent price behavior. This setup is particularly useful for those monitoring potential reactions at key levels, offering insights into short-term directional bias. As always, be sure to manage your risk and consider other confirmations when planning entries. Trade On Your Own Risk.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by fsanalysis6
2
META - Another great earnings, allowing us to collect value?Hi guys ,we would be looking into our analysis for META stock. Meta Platforms Inc. has demonstrated robust financial performance, underscoring its strategic investments in artificial intelligence (AI) and digital advertising. Strong Financial Performance In Q4 2024, Meta reported revenue of $48.39 billion, marking a 21% increase year-over-year. Net income surged by 49% to $20.84 billion, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) rising 50% to $8.02. The company's operating margin improved to 48%, up from 41% the previous year, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency. AI-Driven Advertising Growth Meta's advancements in AI have significantly bolstered its advertising capabilities. In Q3 2024, advertising revenue grew by 18.6% year-over-year, reaching $39.89 billion. The integration of AI technologies has enhanced ad targeting and delivery, contributing to this growth. Our Confidence Overall analysis maintains a bullish outlook on Meta's stock, with an average price target of approximately $634, suggesting a potential upside of around 17% from current levels. The company's strategic focus on AI and its strong financial results support this positive sentiment. In summary, Meta's strong earnings report, driven by AI advancements and advertising growth, positions the company favorably for continued success in the evolving digital landscape. 📌 Trade Plan 📈 Entry: 550 ✅ Target: 630 - below the ATH to give an achievable destination ❌ SL: 480 - below the support zone to protect the trade
NASDAQ:METALong
by DG55Capital
SILVER UP IN THE DAY BY +0.84% DESPITE A RELATIVE STRONG DOLLAROn Monday April 28, 2025, President Donald Trump announced plans to ease the impact of his automotive tariffs, aiming to alleviate concerns from automakers and consumers. In response to this, the dollar index started making recovery from previous week losses, however the dollar index is somewhat steady around 99.29 as markets awaits the key events this week. From technical standpoint, Sliver prices was supported at 32.66 which aligns with EMA 50 and is seen approaching a resistance zone, where 33.66 per ounce stands to be the peak of the zone. Having tested this supply zone in retrospect, this level could halt price movements. But a brake above this level could open room for further bullish rally with potential target around 34.00 and 34.40. On the other hand, a bearish momentum would likely drive prices towards 32.78. A break below this price level opens up room for further decline with potential target around 32.10 acting as two weeks low. Further break out of the levels are not ruled out according to technical analysts. UPCOMING CATALYST. On the radar this week: Markets await the JOLTs report today, April 29, at 6:00 PM GMT+4, followed by U.S. GDP Q/Q, Employment Cost Index, and Core Price Index tomorrow, April 30, at 4:30 PM GMT+4. Focus would be shifted to The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy statement and economic outlook on Thursday, while the U.S. jobs report will wrap up the week on Friday. These key events could trigger some market volatility.
CFI:XAGUSD
by CFI
Euro Under Mild Pressure Amid Policy Uncertainty and Weaker USD📌 EUR/USD Outlook: Euro Under Mild Pressure Amid Policy Uncertainty and Weaker US Dollar 📉 🌍 Fundamental Overview EUR/USD is trading cautiously around 1.1400, as market sentiment remains sensitive to developments in the US-China trade situation and broader monetary policy expectations. Despite recent USD weakness — where the greenback lost ground against all G10 currencies this April — the Euro is facing renewed selling pressure amid rising speculation about further ECB rate cuts. ECB policymakers, including Olli Rehn and François Villeroy de Galhau, highlighted the increasing risks of missing the 2% inflation target, reinforcing the need for more monetary easing if necessary. Meanwhile, mixed signals between Trump and Beijing over trade negotiations have kept uncertainty high, putting both USD and risk sentiment in flux. 📈 Key Economic Events to Watch US Data: JOLTS Job Openings Q1 GDP Preliminary ISM Manufacturing PMI ADP Employment Change Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Core PCE Price Index (March) Eurozone Data: Q1 GDP Preliminary April HICP Inflation Recent weaker-than-expected Spanish GDP (0.6% vs. forecast 0.7%) also adds pressure on the broader Eurozone outlook. 📊 Technical Outlook – EUR/USD Immediate Resistance: 1.1450 – 1.1475 Immediate Support: 1.1375 – 1.1340 The pair is now hovering near the 1.1400 psychological level, with slight bearish momentum: A break below 1.1375 could open the path towards 1.1340. On the upside, holding above 1.1400 and reclaiming 1.1450 would be needed to revive bullish momentum. The Dollar Index (DXY) remains trapped around 99.20, hinting at limited immediate USD strength but vulnerable to macro catalysts. 🧠 Trading Strategy Prefer short-term sell setups if EUR/USD fails to hold 1.1400 and breaks below 1.1375. Bullish setups are only valid if Price closes firmly above 1.1450, aiming towards 1.1475 resistance. ⚡ Traders should stay cautious ahead of major data this week, especially US NFP and Core PCE, which could redefine short-term Dollar strength. 💬 Are you watching for a deeper pullback or waiting for a bounce above 1.1450? Let’s discuss! 👇👇👇
Short
by MMFlowTrading
3
Loonie Drops on Election Shock – Is USD/CAD Set to Rally Further⭐️The USD/CAD pair recovered from intraday losses, trading around 1.3840 in Tuesday’s early European session, as the Canadian dollar (CAD) weakened following Canada’s election results. Prime Minister Mark Carney of the Liberal Party retained power but secured only 167 of 343 seats, falling short of the majority needed for effective trade negotiations with the US. Carney declared the end of the US-led global trade system, unsettling the CAD. The USD gained from optimism in US-China trade relations, with Trump open to lowering tariffs, Beijing exempting some US imports, and ongoing talks with President Xi Jinping showing progress. Trump also proposed reducing auto tariffs, boosting market sentiment. 🔼BUY 1.37100 - 1.36900 SL 1.36600 TP1 1.37400 TP2 1.37900 🔽SELL 1.38800 - 1.39000 SL 1.39300 TP1 1.38500 TP2 Open
Short
by MMFlowTrading
2
Aramco bets on e-fuels in Spainby Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL: 2222), the world’s largest oil company, is accelerating its transformation by heavily investing in synthetic fuels. The Saudi company has announced an investment of hundreds of millions of dollars in new e-fuel plants in Spain and Saudi Arabia, with the ambitious goal of reaching a production of 85,000 barrels per day by 2027. This is a strategic move that could significantly impact the Spanish business landscape, especially in energy and infrastructure sectors. This push is not happening in isolation. Aramco has also acquired a 10% stake in Horse Powertrain, the joint venture formed by Renault (EPA: RNO) and Geely (HKG: 0175), focused on developing low-emission combustion engines. At the same time, it maintains collaboration agreements with BYD (HKG: 1211), the Chinese electric vehicle giant. With these maneuvers, Aramco seeks to consolidate its position in the global sustainable mobility market, diversifying its traditional reliance on crude oil. Spain, a strategic pillar The choice of Spain as one of the expansion hubs is not accidental. The country is becoming a European benchmark in green hydrogen and carbon capture projects—key technologies for the production of e-fuels. In addition, its renewable capacity and institutional commitment to decarbonization position Spain as a natural destination for this type of investment. Although Aramco has not yet specified the exact locations of its plants, it is expected that the most advanced regions in renewables and industrial infrastructure, such as Andalusia or Aragon, could benefit from this wave of capital. The main Spanish companies that could be affected are: • Repsol (BME: REP): one of the leaders in synthetic fuel and biofuel research in Spain. Its energy transition strategy and experience in e-fuel projects position it as a potential competitor or strategic ally in this new stage. • Cepsa (owned by Mubadala Investment Company and Carlyle Group (NASDAQ: CG)): focused on its “Positive Motion” plan to lead sustainable mobility, it could leverage the rise of synthetic fuels to strengthen its business. • Iberdrola (BME: IBE) and Acciona Energía (BME: ANE): both companies lead the development of renewables in Spain and could be key green electricity providers for e-fuel production processes. • Técnicas Reunidas (BME: TRE): a company specialized in engineering large-scale energy and industrial projects, it is a natural candidate to design and build the new plants driving this revolution. REPSOL.ES Analysis The oil company’s share price reached a peak in April last year, hitting 15.275 euros per share. It has since been correcting downward toward a low of 9.420 euros following tariff-related events and the decline in oil prices. The current range for the stock lies between 14 euros and 10.670 euros. In early trading hours, the share is quoted at 10.735 euros, slightly below the indicated range. The Point of Control (POC) is at 12.755 euros, the midpoint of the current triple bell curve and slightly above the support area of 12.455 euros. The RSI currently stands slightly underbought at 46.55%. The moving averages have not yet shown a directional shift; unless they do, Repsol’s price could revisit the 9.900 and 9.420 euro levels. If the moving averages confirm a change, we could see a move toward 11.555 euros. A direct impact on the Spanish ecosystem For Spain, Aramco’s arrival represents an opportunity to strengthen its position in the new global energy map. The Saudi investment promises to energize key industries, attract new strategic alliances, and generate jobs in high-tech sectors related to energy and sustainability. In the medium term, the success of these projects could also encourage the creation of an industrial ecosystem around e-fuels, integrating engineering, chemical, renewable, and mobility companies into a common decarbonization horizon. Meanwhile, Aramco takes a firm step to secure a place in the future of energy... and Spain, if it plays its cards right, could be one of the big winners. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.
BME:REP
by ActivTrades
Invest in STRL: Ride the Coming US Digital Infrastructure Surge◉ Abstract Sterling Infrastructure (NASDAQ: STRL) is a top pick to benefit from America's digital infrastructure boom, with the sector expected to grow 26% annually through 2034. The company specializes in data centers, 5G networks, and smart city projects, supported by a $1 billion backlog and improving profit margins. While risks like regional market shifts and housing demand exist, STRL's fundamentals are strong—revenue grew 7% in 2024, debt is manageable, and its P/E ratio (17.9x) looks cheap compared to peers (70.5x). Technically, the stock shows bullish patterns after pulling back 35% from highs. With government infrastructure spending rising and strategic acquisitions likely, STRL could deliver 35-40% returns in the next 12-14 months. A good option for long term investing! Read full analysis here... ◉ Introduction The U.S. digital infrastructure market, valued at approximately USD 140 billion in 2024, is expanding rapidly, with a projected CAGR of 26.4% through 2034. This growth is driven by factors like the expansion of 5G networks, increased demand for data centers, rising cloud services adoption, AI automation, and investments in smart cities and edge computing. The 5G infrastructure segment alone is expected to grow at a CAGR of 20.2%, reaching USD 17.26 billion by 2030. North America holds a 42.8% share of the global market. ◉ Key Trends and Opportunities 1. Data Centers: Demand continues to rise, driven by cloud computing, AI, and data-intensive applications. Power availability and location are becoming critical, with providers moving to secondary markets to secure reliable energy sources. 2. Fiber Networks: Expansion is underway to support new data centers and remote connectivity needs. Middle-mile and long-haul fiber, as well as fiber-to-the-home (FTTH), are key areas of investment and consolidation. 3. 5G and Wireless: Ongoing rollout of 5G networks is fueling growth in hardware and network densification, with increased activity expected in wireless infrastructure and tower markets. 4. Edge Computing and Smart Cities: The proliferation of IoT devices and smart city initiatives is driving demand for edge data centers and low-latency networks. 5. Mergers and Acquisitions: The market is seeing consolidation, especially in fiber and data center segments, as major players acquire smaller firms to expand their footprint and capabilities. Today, we’ll focus on Sterling Infrastructure (STRL), a key player navigating the U.S. infrastructure market. This report provides a detailed look at STRL's technical and fundamental performance. ◉ Company Overview Sterling Infrastructure Inc. NASDAQ:STRL is a U.S.-based company specializing in e-infrastructure, transportation, and building solutions. It operates through three key segments: E-Infrastructure Solutions, which focuses on site development for data centers, e-commerce warehouses, and industrial facilities; Transportation Solutions, handling infrastructure projects such as highways, bridges, airports, and rail systems for government agencies; and Building Solutions, providing concrete foundations and construction services for residential and commercial projects. Originally founded in 1955 as Sterling Construction Company, the firm rebranded to its current name in June 2022. Headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas, the company serves a wide range of sectors, including logistics, manufacturing, and public infrastructure. ◉ Investment Advice 💡 Buy Sterling Infrastructure NASDAQ:STRL ● Buy Range - 148 - 150 ● Sell Target - 200 - 205 ● Potential Return - 35% - 40% ● Approx Holding Period - 12-14 months ◉ SWOT Analysis ● Strengths 1. Strong E-Infrastructure Backlog – With over $1 billion in backlog, Sterling has a robust pipeline of future projects, ensuring sustained revenue growth. 2. Higher-Margin Services Shift – The company’s strategic focus on higher-margin work (21% gross profit margin in Q4) improves profitability without relying solely on volume. 3. E-Infrastructure Growth Potential – Expected 10%+ revenue growth and 25%+ operating profit growth in 2025 position Sterling for strong earnings expansion. 4. Strategic M&A Opportunities – Strong liquidity allows for accretive acquisitions, enhancing market share and service offerings. 5. Share Repurchase Program – Active buybacks reduce outstanding shares, potentially boosting EPS and shareholder value. ● Weaknesses 1. Texas Market Transition Risks – Moving away from low-bid work in Texas may slow revenue growth in the Transportation segment if not managed well. 2. Revenue Loss from RHB Deconsolidation – Excluding $236 million in RHB revenue could distort growth metrics and reduce reported earnings. 3. Residential Market Pressures – A 14% decline in residential slab revenue (due to DFW affordability issues) could persist if housing demand weakens further. 4. Geographic Expansion Challenges – High costs and logistical hurdles in expanding data center projects outside core regions may limit growth opportunities. 5. Competitive Bidding & Acquisition Risks – Difficulty in securing profitable acquisitions or winning competitive bids could hinder margin and revenue growth. ● Opportunities 1. Data Center & E-Commerce Boom – Rising demand for data centers and distribution facilities presents long-term growth potential for E-Infrastructure. 2. Government Infrastructure Spending – Federal and state investments in highways, bridges, and airports could boost Transportation Solutions revenue. 3. Strategic Acquisitions – Pursuing complementary M&A deals could expand capabilities and market reach. 4. Diversification into New Regions – Expanding into underserved markets could reduce dependency on Texas and mitigate regional risks. 5. Operational Efficiency Improvements – Further margin expansion through cost optimization and technology adoption. ● Threats 1. Economic Slowdown Impact – A recession could reduce demand for residential and commercial construction, affecting Building Solutions. 2. Rising Interest Rates – Higher borrowing costs may pressure profitability and delay large-scale projects. 3. Labor & Material Cost Inflation – Increasing wages and supply chain disruptions could squeeze margins. 4. Intense Competition – Rival firms competing for the same infrastructure projects may drive down pricing and profitability. 5. Regulatory & Permitting Delays – Government approvals and environmental regulations could slow project execution. ◉ Revenue & Profit Analysis ● Year-on-Year ➖ FY24 sales reached $2,116 million, reflecting a 7.28% increase compared to $1,972 million in FY23. ➖ EBITDA rose to $334 million, up from $264 million in FY23. ➖ EBITDA margin improved to 15.8%, up from 13.4% in the same period last year. ● Quarter-on-Quarter ➖ Q4 sales decreased to $499 million, down from $593 million in Q3, but showed a slight increase from $486 million in Q4 of the previous year. ➖ Q4 EBITDA was $80.3 million, down from $105 million in Q3. ➖ Q4 diluted EPS saw a notable rise, reaching $8.27 (LTM), up from $5.89 (LTM) in Q3 2024. ◉ Valuation 1. P/E Ratio (Price-to-Earnings) ● Current vs. Peer Average ➖ STRL’s P/E ratio is 17.9x, much lower than the peer average of 70.5x, suggesting the stock is undervalued compared to peers. ● Current vs. Industry Average ➖ Compared to the broader industry average of 22.9x, STRL again looks relatively inexpensive at 17.9x. 2. P/B Ratio (Price-to-Book) ● Current vs. Peer Average ➖ STRL’s P/B ratio stands at 5.7x, slightly higher than the peer average of 5x, indicating overvaluation. ● Current vs. Industry Average ➖ Against the industry average of 3.6x, STRL’s 5.7x P/B ratio suggests a noticeable overvaluation. 3. PEG Ratio (Price/Earnings to Growth) ➖ STRL’s PEG ratio is 0.21, which means the stock appears undervalued relative to its strong expected earnings growth. ◉ Cash Flow Analysis ➖ Sterling Infrastructure's operating cash flow grew to $497 million in FY24, up from $479 million in FY23, showing steady financial strength. ◉ Debt Analysis ➖ The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 0.38, indicating a healthy balance sheet with manageable debt levels. ◉ Top Shareholders ➖ The Vanguard Group has significantly increased its investment in this stock, now owning an impressive 8.3% stake, which marks a 30% rise since the end of the September quarter. ➖ Meanwhile, Blackrock holds a stake of around 8% in the company. ◉ Technical Aspects ➖ On the monthly chart, the stock remains in a strong uptrend. ➖ On the daily chart, an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern has formed, signaling a potential breakout soon. ➖ The stock is currently trading at about 35% below its all-time high, making it an attractive investment opportunity. ◉ Conclusion Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) stands out as a strong investment candidate, backed by solid financial performance, a growing E-Infrastructure backlog, and a strategic focus on higher-margin projects. Its attractive valuation, healthy cash flow, and low debt levels provide further confidence in its growth potential. While there are challenges—such as market competition, geographic expansion hurdles, and economic uncertainties—Sterling’s strengths, including a robust project pipeline, strategic acquisitions, and exposure to high-growth sectors like data centers and 5G infrastructure, offer a favorable risk-reward balance. Overall, Sterling is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing U.S. e-infrastructure boom, making it an attractive long-term investment opportunity.
NASDAQ:STRLLong
by NaranjCapital
The Day AheadTuesday April 29 Data: US April Conference Board consumer confidence index, Dallas Fed services activity, March JOLTS report, advance goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, February FHFA house price index, Germany May GfK consumer confidence, Italy April consumer confidence index, manufacturing confidence, economic sentiment, March hourly wages, February industrial sales, Eurozone March M3, April economic, industrial, services confidence, Sweden Q1 GDP indicator Central banks: ECB’s March consumer expectations survey, Holzmann and Cipollone speak, BoE’s Ramsden speaks Earnings: Visa, Coca-Cola, Novartis, China Construction Bank, AstraZeneca, HSBC, Booking, S&P Global, Pfizer, Honeywell, Spotify, American Tower, Altria, Starbucks, Mondelez, Sherwin-Williams, UPS, BBVA, BP, Atlas Copco, Ecolab, Regeneron, PayPal, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Wal-Mart de Mexico, Universal Music Group, Hilton, Fair Isaac, adidas, GM, Corning, Kraft Heinz, CoStar, Ares This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
by TradeNation
USDJPY SELL 4H/1H TradeAm looking for USD Sells as this discounted prices are coming in upside correlation USD -2D/-5 CORRELATION JPY -2D/+1 I had 3 pair to look for but i saw that AUDUSD was in a range to the upside without any trend and GBPUSD was showing the most strength but its momentum was dying on every move upside and USDJPY came up to be showing strength in opposite where its momentum is off to upside and signs that seller are back in selling. correlation shows that all products are sold off daily but USD is coming from strength and JPY was very weak just coming up to strength. am watching the upcoming news in New York open and am targeting the lows of the previous range
Short
by malikhass69
GBP/JPY Bullish Flag (29.04.2025)The GBP/JPY pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 192.18 2nd Resistance – 192.70 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
11
AUD/USD Inflation Data Crucial for RBA Decision. Key Supply ZoneThe AUD/USD exchange rate is approaching a key supply zone on the weekly chart, a region where significant long positions are concentrated. This presents a potential reversal point for the currency pair. Adding to the market's focus is the imminent release of Australia's inflation data on Wednesday. This report will be crucial in shaping expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) next policy move. Market forecasts generally point towards a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in May, a decision likely driven by concerns over the potential economic fallout from recently imposed US tariffs. The upcoming inflation data will be closely scrutinized to confirm or challenge these anticipated policy adjustments. The confluence of technical analysis (the supply zone) and macroeconomic factors (the inflation report and RBA considerations) makes this a potentially pivotal week for AUD/USD. ✅ Please share your thoughts about AUD/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
3
LPTH: Poised For Exponential Growth (POSG)LightPath Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:LPTH) stands at the precipice of a transformative era, leveraging its proprietary optical technologies to capitalize on booming demand in defense and commercial imaging markets. With a unique Chalcogenide Glass solution displacing costly germanium, accelerating government contracts, and a strategic pivot toward high-margin imaging systems, LPTH is positioned to deliver multi-billion-dollar revenue growth. Our analysis integrates financial modeling, sector tailwinds, and management’s execution track record to justify a 72.2% probability of reaching a $6.23 price target within 12 months. I. LightPath’s Technological Edge in Multi-Spectral Optics A. Chalcogenide Glass: Revolutionizing Infrared Imaging LightPath’s proprietary Chalcogenide Glass (ChG) represents a paradigm shift in optical systems, enabling lightweight, cost-effective multi-spectral cameras without germanium. This material innovation directly addresses critical pain points in defense applications-where reducing SWaP (Size, Weight, and Power) is paramount-and unlocks commercial markets like optical gas imaging (OGI) and automotive night vision. With germanium prices volatile due to geopolitical tensions, ChG’s $300/lb cost advantage over germanium ($1,300/lb) provides a 4.3x economic incentive for adopters. The technology’s military relevance is underscored by its integration into classified defense programs, including next-generation targeting systems and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) sensors. LightPath’s January 2025 investor presentation revealed a $2.1 billion pipeline for ChG-based solutions, with 63% tied to long-term defense contracts. This backlog provides revenue visibility through 2028, de-risking the growth narrative. B. Vertical Integration From Components to Systems LightPath’s evolution from optical component supplier to full-spectrum imaging solutions provider marks a critical margin inflection point. The company’s “LightPath 3.0” strategy focuses on selling integrated camera systems with 45-55% gross margins, versus 15-25% for discrete components. Early wins include a GETTEX:27M contract with a Tier-1 defense prime for hyperspectral UAV cameras and a $14M agreement with an automotive OEM for LiDAR subsystems. Management estimates that systems sales will contribute 58% of revenue by 2026, up from 12% in 2024. II. Financial Re-Rating Catalysts A. Revenue Growth and Margin Expansion LightPath’s trailing twelve-month (TTM) revenue of $32.1M masks the accelerating growth curve evident in recent quarters. The company’s Q4 2024 bookings surged 217% YoY to $41M, driven by defense orders. Applying a 2.1x book-to-bill ratio implies 2025 revenue of FWB:86M -a 168% increase-with 80% visibility from existing contracts. Margin improvements are equally compelling. Shifting to systems sales and vertical integration lifted gross margins from 18.4% in 2023 to 23.1% by September 2024. Management’s 2025 target of 35%+ gross margins appears achievable given the GETTEX:27M UAV contract’s 49% margin profile. At scale, a 1,000bps margin expansion could add $0.38/share to earnings. B. Capital Structure Optimization With $8.2M cash and no debt, LightPath’s balance sheet provides flexibility to fund growth sans dilution. The company’s operational turnaround under CEO Sam Rubin-who grew a prior venture from FWB:30M to $500M revenue-has slashed SG&A from 29% of sales (2023) to 19% (2024). Further cost discipline could drive EBITDA margins to 15% by 2026, supporting a premium valuation. III. Defense Sector Tailwinds A. Geopolitical Drivers of Infrared Demand Global defense budgets are projected to grow 6.8% CAGR through 2030, with electro-optical/infrared (EO/IR) systems capturing 22% of R&D spend. LightPath’s ChG technology aligns with Pentagon priorities like the Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2) initiative, which requires lightweight sensors for connected battlefields. The company’s January 2025 $19M award for naval targeting systems confirms its role in these programs. B. Commercialization Beyond Defense While defense dominates near-term growth, LightPath’s commercial pipeline shows promise. The $8.4B optical gas imaging market-growing at 9.1% CAGR-represents a greenfield opportunity. Partnerships with oil/gas giants to replace methane leak detection drones (which use germanium-based cameras) could add $50M+ annual revenue by 2027. Automotive adoption for LiDAR and night vision systems provides further upside as EV makers seek compact sensing solutions. IV. Valuation: Modeling the Path to $6.23 A. Monte Carlo Simulation of Price Trajectory Using historical volatility (σ=73.7%) and annualized returns (μ=79.6%), we model LPTH’s 12-month price distribution. The Black-Scholes-derived probability of exceeding $6.23 is 72.2%, with an expected value of $5.89. Key assumptions include: Revenue CAGR of 92% (2024-2026) vs. sector median 11% Gross margin expansion to 35% by 2025 Discount rate of 14.3% (CAPM-derived for small-cap tech) Table 1: Scenario Analysis Scenario Probability 2025 Price Drivers Bull Case 35% $7.80 Defense contracts accelerate, ChG adoption in EVs Base Case 50% $6.23 Current pipeline execution, margin targets met Bear Case 15% $3.40 Contract delays, slower commercial uptake B. Relative Valuation Upside LPTH trades at 3.6x 2025E sales vs. peers at 5.8x, implying 61% upside to $6.23. Applying a 25x EBITDA multiple (conservative for high-growth optics) to 2026E EBITDA of $28M yields a $7.02/share target. V. Catalysts and Risks A. Near-Term Stock Drivers Q1 2025 Earnings (May 2025): Expect revenue guidance raise above FWB:86M and margin commentary. DoD Contract Announcements: Potential $50M+ awards for space-based sensors in H2 2025. Automotive Partnership: LOI with EV maker for LiDAR systems expected by July 2025. B. Risk Mitigation Framework While dilution (30.2M float) and execution risks exist, LightPath’s $2.1B pipeline and 80% backlog coverage provide downside protection. The stock’s 0.78 beta further insulates it from broader market volatility. Conclusion: Lighting the Path to Multi-Bagger Returns LightPath Technologies embodies a rare combination of disruptive technology, sector tailwinds, and execution prowess. With a 72% probability of reaching $6.23 and catalysts aligned for beat-and-raise quarters, LPTH offers asymmetric upside. Investors should accumulate shares ahead of the Q1 2025 inflection point. “We’re not just selling components anymore-we’re engineering the eyes of modern warfare and autonomous systems.” – Sam Rubin, CEO
NASDAQ:LPTHLong
by meszaros