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2025-01-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - goldGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: The bull channel is clear and valid until broken. I do think a bigger pull-back is overdue but until then, bulls are in control. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 2670 - 2770 bull case: Bulls want to print above 2761 and make a new high above the December high. If they can get it, we could see more upside to 2800 since there is no more resistance afterwards. the bull channel is tight and no matter how you count it, we had at least 3 legs up and betting on a 4th is a losing strategy in most cases. Invalidation is below 2700. bear case: Bears doing not enough and if they fail at 2761, we will go 2800+ again. Not much to interpret here. We are still in a bull channel on the 1h tf and bears would need a 1h bar close below the 20ema for a start. The previous times we got above 2740, we printed huge bear reversal bars and I am hoping for another one tomorrow. Bears are also seeing this as at least 3 legs up and they want another decent pull-back for at least 50 points like the prior ones. Invalidation is above 2765. short term: Neutral. Waiting for bears to come around here at big resistance. If they fail, we see 2800 soon. No bigger interest in buying this. medium-long term - Update from 2024-01-02: If we break strongly above 2700, we will likely retest 2740-2760 and depending on that move, we will either stay inside the big range 2560 - 2760 or retest 2800 or even higher. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying the double bottom on the 1h tf at 2722 before EU open. Otherwise just any pullback to the 1h 20ema.
COMEX_MINI:MGC1!
by priceactiontds
2025-01-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: After hours selling was strong, especially on nasdaq. Sp500 is still well above 5950, which is my line in the sand for bulls. Below the odds for the bears increase big time. I still lean bullish for a retest of 6000 and I do think bears need stronger selling (spike + channel) to trap late bulls. Today was a trending trading range where all bars overlapped big time. The odds that we break below such a day after that rally are very low. current market cycle: trading range (bear channel/wedge on the daily tf) key levels: 5900 - 6030 bull case: Bulls want to chop around 6000 to find more acceptance and break above the big bear channel. Their next target is the prior high 6068. On the previous short squeeze we melted to 6068, pulled back hard for 60 points and then print a lower high. I still expect bulls to get a lower high closer to 6000, if not the breakout above. Invalidation is below 5950. bear case: Bears want to get below 5950 and then test the breakout price of 5918. The 50% retracement is also there at 5913. For now I don’t think today’s price action was that bearish but the after hours selling is weird to say the least. It’s a bad spot for both sides to trade at 5960ish. Invalidation is above 6020. short term: Bearish below 5950 and bullish only above 6020. Neutral in between. Again. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Shorting 6000 was decent many many times.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
GOLD recovers to original target, paying attention to US CPIOANDA:XAUUSD recovered strongly and is currently traded quite narrowly. US PPI data has reinforced investor confidence in the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further this year. In addition, Trump's report on tariffs also affected the USD, helping push gold prices higher. On Wednesday, investors are focused on the US CPI, which is expected to cause a big swing in the markets. US PPI data and Trump's tariff report influence the USD US PPI unexpectedly came in lower than expected in December, driven by lower food costs and firm service prices, which may help ease concerns about persistent price pressure. Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showed that the U.S. PPI rose 3.3% year-on-year in December, an increase less than the 3.5% expected. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 3.5% year-on-year, below expectations of 3.8%. US PPI increased 0.2% month-on-month in December, lower than the 0.4% increase in November and below market expectations of 0.4%. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, was unchanged from the previous month, missing economists' expectations of a 0.3% increase and the previous month's 0.2% increase. After the US PPI data was released, the US Dollar fell again. A weaker US Dollar makes gold more attractive. Bloomberg reports that members of US President-elect Donald Trump's incoming economic team are discussing gradually increasing taxes month by month to increase their negotiating leverage incrementally, while also helping to avoid rising inflation. mutation. One idea is to build a progressive tax schedule with monthly increases of about 2% to 5%, said people familiar with the matter. The plan would also need to rely on executive powers granted by the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. This news also affected the US Dollar, causing gold prices to recover. Pay attention to US CPI Investors are now waiting for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on Wednesday to analyze the Fed's policy direction. The US CPI is expected to increase at an annual rate of 2.9% in December, higher than the previous month's 2.7% increase, while the month-on-month CPI increase in the month 12 is expected to be 0.3%. . If Wednesday's US CPI report is lower than expected, it could increase the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will ease policy this year, which would benefit gold. And of course the opposite effect is if the data is higher than expected. Gold is considered a hedge against inflation, but due to its non-interest-bearing nature, a high interest rate environment weakens its investment appeal. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold is still trading very narrowly but as mentioned to readers in previous publications that gold has achieved the initial technical conditions for a possible price increase. With the short-term trend formed by the green price channel and support from EMA21, POC Volume Profile. After the previous correction, gold has also recovered from the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level to reach the initial target at 2,676 USD, the next target will be around 2,693 - 2,700 USD. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index maintained above 50 is a positive signal for an uptrend in the near future while still quite far from the overbought area. During the day, the technical outlook for gold is bullish, notable points will also be listed as follows. Support: 2,664 – 2,650USD Resistance: 2,676 – 2,693 – 2,700USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2701 - 2699⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2705 →Take Profit 1 2694 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2689 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2649 - 2651⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2645 →Take Profit 1 2656 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2661
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
2025-01-15 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral around 6000. Market is close to the daily 20ema, bear trend line and big round number 6000. I won’t even think about longing this but it’s obviously wrong to short too early. As long as bulls keep it above 5950, they are good and in full control of the market. Targets above are 6030 and then 5050. If bulls break above the bear trend line, there aren’t many reasons why we could not just melt to 6100+. comment: Huge bull day but right at multiple prior resistances. Bad buy no matter how you put it. I would actually not be surprised if we trade below 5950 or lower tomorrow. We have been going wildly up and down in this bear wedge/channel and that pattern is valid until clearly broken. current market cycle: trading range (bear channel/wedge on the daily tf) key levels: 5900 - 6030 bull case: Bulls got the big move from the CPI news and they want to test the bear trend line and break above it. It’s just not a good buy and hoping for a breakout. I won’t make stuff up here. If bulls break above 6020, next target is 6068 and then 6100. Invalidation is below 5795. bear case: Bears need anything to stop the rally. They have good arguments with the daily ema, bear trend line and big round number 6000. They came around the prior weeks and until that bear trend line is broken, I expect them to keep this a lower high as well. It would be pretty funny if we completely reverse today before we go into the weekend. Invalidation is above 6030. short term: Bearish below 5950 and bullish only above 6020. Neutral in between. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buying the double bottom on the 15m chart around 5956 was good.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
MNQ CPI News Drop Rallies the marketLooks like price has seen an impressive Bullish reaction today from the 0830 news drop that took out the past days highs that was housing a ton of BSL. Conveniently, price seems to be drawing into the D SIBI and is in close proximity to the High from Wed 08 Jan 2025. I can see price trading into the SIBI and finding some sort of rejection. Now to go forward does this make my Bias Bullish leaving the focus on the SSL at 20640.00? No not just yet because I would like to see how price trades and respects the three Premium Arrays being the D -OB, D Volume Imbalance, and the D SIBI. If price is Bullish then it should see little resistance from the CE level and the MT of the D -OB but if price is Bearish then we will see it respect a Premium Array and then continue lower. So far there is a nice sweep on SSL and the CPI rally could be the Displacement and MSS that price needed to make to turn things around to become Bullish and start to hunt the Highs for BSL from the Mon and Tue highs of last week.
CME_MINI:MNQH2025
by ProphetTheTrader
1
MNQ Continued Bearish Bias OutlookMy directional Bias for MNQ remains Bearish with the expectation on price to trade lower into the D BISI and take the SSL from the double bottom around 20640.00 I also like how price wicked the CE level of the D BISI that could indicate lower prices since price cant even make it through the inefficiencies 50% CE level. Now price may not make the move lower all the way and could just trade as low as the D Discount Wick 50% level which is also conveniently placed in CP to the D BISI CE level as well but lets see what price gives us.
CME_MINI:MNQH2025Short
by ProphetTheTrader
2025-01-14 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Neutral. Strong by the bulls to keep the Globex gap open to 20326 but they failed at finding acceptance above 20420. We continue sideways until one side clearly gives up. We are still close to the middle of the bigger triangle so shorts need a stop 20622 and that’s far away. I still slightly favor the bears to rather trade back down to 20200ish than above 20500. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 20200 - 20500 bull case: Bulls want to stay above 20300 and continue upwards to test 20500. They are in control as long as the Globex gap stays open. Bulls are also above most important 20ema and that means they are in control of the market. Their issue is, that they can’t find more buyers above 20400 and all daily bars since last week have decent tails above them. Bulls will only try so many times before more give up and want to short lower again. Invalidation is below 20300. bear case: Bears have a decent head & shoulders pattern that could break down over the next days. The measured move target is around 20150 which was Monday’s low. First target for them would be to close the gap to 20320 and close a 1h bar there. Bulls have bought every touch of the 1h 20ema and until that changes, we continue sideways to up. Problem for the bears is, that we could go up to 20500 or even 20550 to hit the bigger bear trend line. That stop is far away and likely a reason why bears scalp out near support. Invalidation is above 20500. short term: Neutral 20300 - 20400. Bears need a strong move below 20320 and bulls need to find acceptance above 20420. medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025. current swing trade: Scaling in and out of shorts. In above 20450 and out where market shows support (currently 20350). trade of the day: Buying close to the Globex gap was good for many longs. Also selling close to 20500 was a no-brainer since market went mostly sideways before and we had huge prior resistance 20500 and above.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
USD soars, GOLD corrects but conditions remain bullishAfter last week's surge, OANDA:XAUUSD Spot trading suddenly suffered a fierce correction and the upward momentum was limited. US bond yields soared, the US Dollar strengthened and investors' profit-taking activities affected the trend of gold. In addition, news of a ceasefire in the Middle East also negatively impacted gold prices. OANDA:XAUUSD fell again as US Treasury yields rose to their highest since November 2023. The US Dollar Index surpassed 110.00 in trading on Monday, pressuring gold prices. The dollar index rose to its highest since November 2022 after the US jobs report emphasized the strength of the economy and clouded the prospect of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. A rising Dollar will make gold less attractive. The latest New York Fed survey shows one-year inflation expectations at 3% and interest rate futures traders are pricing in a Fed rate cut this year of less than 25 basis points. copies, or less than once. Because gold does not generate interest, a high interest rate environment reduces its appeal to investors. A ceasefire in Gaza could take place as early as this week White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told Bloomberg on Monday that the Biden administration believes a ceasefire in Gaza could be reached as early as this week. He added that there was no guarantee that all parties would agree to such a deal. In an interview with Bloomberg, Sullivan said US President Joe Biden's administration has contacted Trump's newly elected team and is looking to form a united front on this issue before the transfer of power in Washington on January 20. Previously, Britain's Reuters quoted officials familiar with the negotiation process as saying on Monday that mediators had submitted a draft "final agreement" to the warring parties on a ceasefire and the release of children. believe. Officials said that in addition to delegations from both Israel and Kazakhstan, current US President McGurk and President-elect Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff were also present at the peace talks. hosted by Qatar Prime Minister Mohammed in Doha. Reuters said the talks achieved a breakthrough after midnight on Sunday and mediators led by Qatar immediately submitted a draft ceasefire agreement to Israel and Kazakhstan. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Although gold has adjusted down significantly from the important confluence level, readers should pay attention to previous publications at the Fibonacci retracement of 0.382% confluence with the upper edge of the green price channel and one side of the triangle. purple price. But the downside correction was also limited after reaching target support at the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level. Currently, gold is recovering from the 0.50% Fibonacci level, but first it needs to break the technical point of 2,676 USD, then the target is around 2,693 - 2,700 USD in the short term. Up to now, gold still has conditions to increase technically with supporting factors from EMA21, POC Volume Profile and the green short-term rising price channel. Along with that, the Relative Strength Index maintained its activity above 50, also quite far from the overbought area, showing that there is still room for price increases ahead. During the day, the technical outlook for gold is bullish with notable points listed as follows. Support: 2,664 – 2,650USD Resistance: 2,693 – 2,700USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2688 - 2686⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2692 →Take Profit 1 2681 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2676 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2644 - 2646⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2640 →Take Profit 1 2651 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2656
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
S&P ES Short setup target 5811 / Put SPY target 574Fibonacci technical analysis : S&P 500 E-mini Futures ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) has already found resistance at the Fib level 78.6% (6057.75) of my Down Fib. Last Daily candle (Jan 7) has closed below retracement Fib level 38.2% (5963.75). My Down Fib guides me to look for CME_MINI:ES1! to eventually go down to hit first target at Fib level -27.2% (5811.50). S&P CME_MINI:ES1! – Target 1 at 5811.50, Target 2 at -61.8% (5731) and Target 3 at -78.6 (5691.75) Stop loss slightly above the 50.0% retracement Fib level (5991.25). Option Traders : My SPY AMEX:SPY chart (Down Fib from 602.48 to 580.50) shows price to go down to Target 1 at -27.2% (574.52), Target 2 at -61.8% (566.92) and Target 3 at -78.6 (563.22) Stop loss slightly above the 50.0% retracement Fib level (591.50).
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by rose_excellence
GOLD has bullish conditions, pay attention to inflation dataOANDA:XAUUSD is accumulating upward momentum, rising to a new multi-week high above $2,680 an ounce. The technical outlook shows that gold prices have shifted to an uptrend in the near future. Next week, key economic indicators from China and the US inflation data will likely drive gold price movements. The US government on Friday released a nonfarm report showing 256,000 new jobs were created last December, far higher than the expected 160,000 and the biggest increase in nine months. The unemployment rate in December was 4.1%, also the lowest with an expected value of 4.2%. Reasons for OANDA:XAUUSD The recovery after Friday's decline was due despite stronger-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls data, reducing the likelihood of a sharp interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year. However, the Trump administration's upcoming policies have brought uncertainty, increasing gold's safe-haven appeal. It can be quite certain that, as soon as Trump takes office, a series of major changes in US economic and foreign policy will suddenly change and gold will always benefit in an economically unstable environment. geopolitics. Gold investors will wait for US inflation data Early next week, investors will pay attention to China's December trade balance data. A significant increase in China's trade surplus could support gold prices during the Asian session next Monday. Next Wednesday, US December inflation data could trigger gold's next big move. The market expects the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise 0.3% month-on-month in December, but core CPI to fall 0.1% over the same period. If CPI is higher than expected, the immediate market reaction could boost the USD and cause gold to fall. On the other hand, negative data could make it difficult for the USD to find demand and help gold maintain its position or push gold prices higher. Gold investors will wait for US inflation data Early next week, investors will pay attention to China's December trade balance data. A significant increase in China's trade surplus could support gold prices during the Asian session next Monday. Next Wednesday, US December inflation data could trigger gold's next big move. The market expects the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise 0.3% month-on-month in December, but core CPI to fall 0.1% over the same period. If CPI is higher than expected, the immediate market reaction could boost the USD and cause gold to fall. On the other hand, negative data could make it difficult for the USD to find demand and help gold maintain its position or push gold prices higher. China's fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data could influence gold trends during the Asian trading session next Friday. Analysts expect China's annual GDP growth rate to reach 5.1% in the fourth quarter, higher than the 4.6% growth rate in the third quarter. A positive surprise could help gold prices edged higher, while disappointing GDP data could weigh on gold prices. Market participants will also pay attention to new developments surrounding Trump's tariff strategy. While gold benefits from risk aversion, a sharp rise in US Treasury yields could limit gold's gains. The economic calendar needs attention next week Tuesday: US PPI Wednesday: US CPI, Empire State Manufacturing Survey Thursday: US Retail Sales, Philly Federal Reserve Survey, Weekly Jobless Claims Friday: Housing construction starts and construction permits in the United States Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, gold has achieved conditions for a short-term uptrend although the upward momentum is being hindered by the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level. And once gold breaks above $2,693 it will be ripe for upside with a target of around $2,730 in the short term. In terms of support factors, the POC Volume Profile level will be the closest support, combined with the EMA21 and Fibonacci 0.618% creating a reliable support area for each correction to ensure that, as long as gold does not If it breaks below the 0.618% Fibonacci level, it still has the potential to increase in price in the near future. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index is also pointing up from level 50, still quite far from the overbought level with a significant slope, this is a signal for room for price increases in the near future. On the other hand, an uptrend price channel has also just been formed. In the coming time, the technical outlook for gold tends to increase in price with notable levels listed as follows. Support: 2,676 – 2,664USD Resistance: 2,693 – 2,700USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2711 - 2709⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2715 →Take Profit 1 2704 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2699 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2661 - 2663⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2657 →Take Profit 1 2668 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2673
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
1
2025-01-13 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Can’t write much new stuff. Still neutral between 20200 and 20300. Bulls were not strong enough to close the gap to Friday’s close but bears were not strong enough to keep it below 20300. We have a clear triangle on the daily tf between 20150 and 20500 and I do expect the market to continue inside for 1-3 more days. Very strong US session close and above 20300 I expect follow-through to 20400/20450ish. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 20100 - 20500 bull case: Bulls want to close the gap to 20350 tomorrow and then more up to 20400/20450 and test the bear trend line. I highly doubt they can break above and test 20500. We stayed above the big bull trend line and the daily 20ema, so bulls did what they had to do. Market is contracting and that means a couple more days of sideways price action before another big breakout. Invalidation is below 20100. bear case: Bears tested the bull trend line but quickly gave up trying to push this below. Best they can get now is sideways and staying below 20350/20400. If they can manage, we can poke more at the bull trend line until one side gives up. My medium term bias is bearish, so I expect the triangle on the daily tf to break out below. Invalidation is above 20500. short term: Neutral 20200 - 20300. Bearish below for 20150 and bullish above for 20400. medium-long term from 2024-12-22: Any short near 20000 is reasonable if you can hold for another 1000 points higher. 17000 is much more likely than 21000 though. My first target for the next months is 19000, followed by 17700ish and ultimately down to 16000-16300 in 2025. current swing trade: Took most off at 20180 and want to short again closer to 20400/20500. trade of the day: Selling the open because the selling pressure was very strong. Market then went sideways too much around 20200 and taking profits was reasonable. Buying the breakout above 20230 was also decent.
EUREX:FDXS1!
by priceactiontds
2025-01-13 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Strong buying into US close and I expect 5900 to be hit tomorrow or Wednesday. The bear channel is valid until broken, so I want to either long closer to 5800 or short closer to 5900. current market cycle: trading range (descending triangle on the daily tf) key levels: 5800 - 6020 bull case: Bulls want to hit 5900 again and the bear trend line from the descending triangle. Their breakout late today is reasonably strong to expect follow-through tomorrow. I would not be surprised if we see early weakness and then a lower high around 5830/5840 before we move higher. Invalidation is below 5795. bear case: Bears will likely wait for 5900 and the bear trend line before they initiate bigger shorts again. Overall we see more two-sided trading today than a strong bull trend, which means the upside is likely limited and prior resistance will hold. Bears want to hit 5800 and likely somewhat lower to retest the October and November lows. Invalidation is above 6030. short term: Bearish closer to 5900 to trade back down to 5800 and longs only on a decent dip below 5850 again for target 5900. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Buy low, sell high. Clear range 5820 - 5840 which was amazing to trade back and forth.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
WTI highest in more than 3 weeksTVC:USOIL hit its highest level in more than three months in early trading on Monday (January 13) in Asian markets, continuing last Friday's rise on market expectations that the United States will strengthen its measures. sanctions on Russia's oil industry, which will result in Russian supplies in China and India coming under pressure; In addition, the nonfarm payrolls report also boosted market confidence in the growth of crude oil demand in some parts of the US and Europe also stimulated winter crude oil fuel demand. The Biden administration on Friday imposed the broadest package of sanctions targeting Russia's oil and gas revenues, a move aimed at giving Kyiv and Trump's new team leverage to reach a peace deal in Ukraine. This move is aimed at cutting Russia's revenue to continue the war. Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in Russia in February 2022, the war has caused tens of thousands of casualties and reduced many cities to rubble. Ukrainian President Zelensky posted on X that the measures announced last Friday would "deal a big blow" to Moscow. He added that "The less money Russia gets from oil... the sooner peace will be restored." US job growth unexpectedly accelerated in December, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% and a stable labor market at the end of the year will boost crude oil demand. Friday's closely watched Labor Department jobs report also showed fewer long-term unemployed people in December and the average length of unemployment shortened. Increases in these indicators have previously raised concerns about a labor market downturn. December employment rose 256,000, the most since March. Data for October and November were revised to show 8,000 fewer jobs were added than previously reported. The unemployment rate decreased from 4.2% in November. The average unemployment rate last year was 4.0% and in 2023 it will be 3.6%. In Friday's report, the government also released revisions to the past five years of seasonally adjusted household survey data, from which the unemployment rate is calculated. With last Friday's jobs data settling in, this week will see a lot of US data and statements from Federal Reserve officials. US President-elect Donald Trump's team is expected to make many comments before the inauguration ceremony on January 20. China's trade data, economic activity and GDP will also be the focus of the market in general and the Crude Oil market in particular. On the daily chart, TVC:USOIL continues its uptrend after breaking through the rising price channel noticed by readers in the previous issue. And currently the upward momentum is limited by the 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level, once WTI crude oil breaks above this level it can continue to increase further with the target then around 82.75USD in the short term. However, the Relative Strength Index shows that the RSI is operating in the overbought area, which is a signal that there is not much room for price increases ahead, and also signals a possible downward correction. happen. However, the technical outlook for WTI crude oil is currently bullish with support from the trend price channel, EMA21 and the nearest support level at the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement. As long as WTI crude oil remains above the price channel and EMA21, any price declines should only be considered short-term corrections, notable levels will also be listed as follows. Support: 76.33 – 75.20 – 74.61USD Resistance: 78.98USD
TVC:USOIL
by Xayah_trading
1
BITCOIN TRADE PLAN + TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (ASCENDING TRIANGLE)Bitcoin appears to be forming an ascending triangle, a bullish continuation pattern. The horizontal resistance line is at $95,407, while the ascending support line suggests increasing buying pressure. A breakout above $95,407 could signal a significant upward move. Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance at $95,407. Secondary resistance levels: $108,330 and potentially higher targets as the trend develops. Support Levels: Immediate support near $92,000. Additional support levels: $88,071 and $85,000. Indicators Analysis: VMC Cipher B Divergences: Neutral-to-bullish signals with minimal negative momentum. RSI (14): The current value of around 44.2 indicates a neutral zone, with potential for upward movement if it crosses the 50 level. Money Flow Index (MFI): Indicates neutral activity, suggesting balanced buying and selling pressure. Stochastic Oscillator: Near oversold levels (15.3), implying that a reversal to the upside might occur soon. Trading Plan Entry Strategy: Aggressive Entry: Consider entering at current levels ($94,000) with a small position, anticipating a breakout. Conservative Entry: Wait for a confirmed breakout above $95,407, with strong volume as confirmation. Stop-Loss Placement: Place an initial stop-loss below $92,000 to limit downside risk. For tighter risk management, consider $93,000 as an alternative stop-loss level. Take-Profit Targets: First Target: $100,000 (psychological and round number resistance). Second Target: $108,330 (next major resistance based on historical levels). Third Target: Trail-stop strategy to capture potential gains beyond $108,330 if Bitcoin rallies further. Risk Management: Allocate no more than 2-3% of your trading capital to this position to manage risk effectively. Monitor trading volume during the breakout; lack of volume confirmation may indicate a false breakout. Contingency Plan: If Bitcoin breaks below $92,000, re-evaluate the bullish thesis and consider a short-term bearish outlook toward $88,071 or $85,000 support levels. Be cautious of false breakouts, particularly around $95,407. Keep an eye on macroeconomic events or Bitcoin-specific news that could influence price action. Bitcoin's ascending triangle pattern and current positioning suggest a bullish breakout is possible. Following this trading plan with disciplined risk management can help capture potential upside while limiting downside risks. Monitor the market closely for breakout confirmation or invalidation.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDLong
by elfabiiani
1
#202502 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-miniGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Neutral but slightly bullish if we stay above 5800. Downside would probably be limited with 5800 but we could easily go back to 6000 again. If we get a daily close below 5800 I change my mind and the bull trend line around 5750 would be the next lower target. Overall the probability of another big move up or down are small and sideways is most likely. On SPX we have a bull gap down to 5782 (ES is 40 points higher, so it would be around 5826) and it would be strong by the bears to finally close it after 2 months. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5800 - 6030 bull case: Only thing bulls have going for them is that we are barely making lower lows and are still above 5800. If bears were strong, we would have tested the big bull trend line from 2023-10 by now, which is still 400 points lower. This market has not had two consecutive bear months since 2023-10 and bulls can be confident it stays that way. Bulls who bought near 5800 made money since 2024-09 and I expect them to come around again next week. They will be scaling scale into longs already or wait until we are closer to 5800 and the probability is on their side. Bulls who bought the previous two lows in December and last week, also made at least 150+ points and until we see more trapped traders (bigger gaps), sideways inside the bigger range is much more likely that a strong move down. Invalidation is below 5780. bear case: Bears changed the character of the market but failed to establish a strong bear trend. Once we see decent buying pressure early next week, they will likely give up and try again near 6000. They simple can not hold short below 5900 when we rallied 150+ the past two times we got below it. The best bears can do is to print lower highs below 6040 and go sideways for longer below 6000. Once we get closer to the bull trend line from 2023-10, it’s likely that we see another strong push up to test 6100+, if we haven’t see a strong break below 5800 by then. It’s typical trading range price action and the range is big enough for both sides to make decent money. You have to play the range because we can go sideways for much longer. Invalidation is above 6040. short term: Neutral between 5840 - 5900. If bears continue to make lower highs below 5900, they have a chance of testing 5800. Once we break above 5900, we will test the bear trend line around 5930ish next and above 5960 bears have to give up and wait for 6000 or 6030 before shorting again. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-22: Ultimately 5200-5300 in 2025. Again, rough guess as of now and since we have not seen a strong first bear leg, these targets are the lowest I am willing to give an honest outlook about. If bears surprise and we see a huge leg down to 5500, we will go much lower for the second and third leg. current swing trade: None chart update: Marked current bear channel on the 1h tf and removed the bull trend line from the 2024-11 low that got broken.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds