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GBPUSD dip to gap fill then bounceOANDA:GBPUSD will dip back down to fill in some PA and Volume gaps. With an anchored VWAP from September 13 NY session open with a big dump starting a long downtrend, PA is ranging between the standard deviations of the long term VWAP. Above the current VWAP, it opened the week with a large gap up from last week's close, which it will go fill on its way back to the VWAP and on down to fill a volume gap seen in a (up/down) volume profile over the same period. After running through the volume gap in a downtrend continuation, shorts reacted sharply twice with price returned to that zone. After it broke up through the gap zone quickly, it returned once and longs sharply pulled it up. I speculate a move back down to the VWAP-1stddev support and the volume gap before Sterling finally begins recovering from his bender before the morning after. (Note: I do smell a little hopium odor from the shorters next door.)
Short
by UnknownUnicorn17032407
SE ~ Lower Lows incoming? Buying Opp incoming?SE, Sea Limited has been suffering massive losses ever since its peak in the fall of 2021. This massive bull run was led with the Tech & Growth Stock boom that's bubble has recently bursted through out the current Bear Market of 2022! Sea Limited owns multiple varieties of Business in the South-Eastern Asia Region. Businesses Like : Shopee - Ecommerce Giant Garena - Gaming + Esports & Much more smaller companies Sea Limited has grown a massive amount of revenue, but has most definitely struggled with its debt and spending to make a profit. Nonetheless, let's get to Technicals! SE has suffered such huge losses, many wonder where is the bottom!? My thesis for this Stock is a short / mid term short position, followed by long term accumilation. Short : SE has 2 major gaps to still be filled from back before COVID, and the gigantic Rally that took place on SE. I see huge potential for this company's future growth, but I think more downside is to come to give SE fair value. Along with fair value, and these gaps SE has been unable to reclaim any weekly moving averages, and the TTM_SQUEEZE Momentum Indicator shows more bearish momentum coming. The monthly chart will get to the point of being oversold, probably near these gap fills. At these gap fill areas, and the way down would be a proper time imo to be covering short positions. The market also seems to have some more pain ahead, and interest rates will only hurt this company and the markets more, driving the stock down fundamentally. Long : I do believe in this company's long term outlook and performance. I do think that this will take a while to turn around... But if these gaps get filled, the Risk/Reward on SE will be favorable if the company has only grown. I am going to be extremely patient on SE but will be ready to hunt the discount if these gaps do become filled. I Will also keep my eye on the TTM_Squeeze on the MONTHLY chart, as the Monthly chart has been getting extreme momentum to the bearish side, and will look extremely oversold in the coming months with more downside. Thesis : Short to Gaps ; Long @ Gap Fills
NYSE:SE
by ZachSap
QQQ: Doing as expected, but be careful with this resistance!• QQQ did an Above the Stomach candlestick pattern just above the previous support at $268 (black line); • This candlestick pattern was triggered, and QQQ is trading at its first technical target at the 21 ema; • QQQ didn’t trigger the bullish candlestick pattern we mentioned last week, and the moment it lost the $275, it just went down to seek our next target at $268, and it hit it with astonishing precision before reacting again, as we expected. The link to my previous analysis is below this post; • Now that it is near its 21 ema, we’ll see if this is a Dead Cat Bounce or a meaningful reversal sign; • If it loses yesterday’s low, it’ll show some weakness and a bearish thesis will gain strength. However, by breaking the 21 ema, a mid-term reversal would have a first target at $307, to fill the first gap (yellow square); • Either way, QQQ is about to do something interesting; I’ll keep you guys updated on this. Remember to follow me for more analysis like this! Keep in touch.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
TEXTBOOK $DLTR #SHORTTextbook $DLTR short. Massive consolidation with a large gap on either side. The consolidation broke down, retested the consolidation, and was rejected. Additionally, even with the cross-market rally, $DLTR did not move as much as other stocks that bounced from the market relief. Lastly, $DLTR is almost exclusively owned by institutions, the setup is textbook, and the gap down allows for a great risk-reward ratio from near-the-money options, making this play a high conviction trade.
NASDAQ:DLTRShort
by VakninAnalytics
Veeva SystemsThis is a daily chart of Veeva Systems (VEEV), a healthcare technology company that provides cloud solutions for the global life sciences industry. When the company reported its earnings on August 31st the stock price subsequently gapped down, as shown in the chart above. From a probability standpoint, this gap is likely to be filled for the reasons below. 1. The gap is a monthly candle gap and these usually close. Unfilled gaps on the monthly charts are generally quite rare, especially for assets that have never left a monthly gap before. As shown in the chart below, VEEV has never left a gap on its monthly chart before. 2. The gap is below the lower regression channel line. A regression channel is used to measure how far above or below an asset is trading from its mean. Since price generally tends to mean revert, it's highly unlikely that a gap below the lower channel line, (which in this case represents two standard deviations below the mean), will never be filled. It's more likely that the gap will not only be filled, but will be filled quite rapidly. The assumption I make in using this regression channel is that it is statistically valid and data are normally distributed. If true, then there's only a small probability that VEEV's monthly candle will close the month so far below the lower line of the regression channel. Therefore, it's likely that price will be drawn back up to the mean, and thus the gap will be filled. Here's a close up view: 3. Price gapped below an important Fibonacci level that has been holding, and likely will continue to hold, as support. See the chart below. Here are some close up views: At a minimum, price will very likely push back into the 180s. The quarterly chart shows long lower wicks at this Fibonacci level, indicating that it is holding as support. With further momentum to the downside waning as shown by the Stochastic RSI, there's little reason to believe this Fibonacci level will fail this time. The lower wicks on the quarterly candles are also bouncing off of the exponential moving average (EMA) ribbon, which usually acts as support when price descends to it from above. Strategy With this said, I noticed that someone is already sweeping the call options. They swept hundreds of out-of-the-money (OTM) call options expiring on 9/16 with a $180 strike. Clearly, this buyer believes that VEEV's price is poised to quickly return at least to the Fibonacci support level of $180.97. If you don't know what an options sweep is, it simply refers to an instance in which options are purchased right at the ask price. In most cases, buyers place a limit buy at the mid point of the bid-ask spread or at a lower target price. Market participants usually only buy at the ask price if they're in a rush to buy and/or if they have a high confidence about a certain market move and want to guarantee their entry while also not tipping the market off about their anticipated market move. Sweeps can also refer to when a large buyer wants to obfuscate their entry by splitting their large order into a lot of smaller parts to sweep the entire order book without tipping off the market as they would have if they placed a single large limit order. Understanding sweeps can help you understand what smart money is doing. It's very rare that retail traders sweep the order book because it's very expensive, and for a smaller portfolio (less than a million) it can be extremely risky. Therefore, smart money is usually the market participant who sweeps the order book. Personally, I find this call sweep to be risky (assuming that it's not part of some kind of a hedge) since although we have a high confidence that the gap may close, we don't know within what time frame it will do so. Rather than sweeping a call option with a strike price of $180 that expires on 9/16 a safer though less lucrative trade would be to sell a cash-secured put with a strike price of $180 and which expires on 9/16. Doing this gives you much higher odds of winning but is profit limited. If the price goes to $180 or higher at expiration, you win the full premium since the put you sold will not be exercised. If the price is below $180 but above the breakeven price at expiration, or if the price is below even your breakeven price, then you may be forced to buy shares of VEEV at $180, but you can simply hold those shares until the gap closes (or longer if you think price is going higher). Therefore in this case you still do not lose money, and still make the premium as profit. The only plausible scenario whereby you would lose money would be if VEEV's price continued to plummet and never recovers. Although this would be incredibly unlikely, it is still possible. You can nonetheless still hedge against even this risk by using a put spread to limit loss potential to a ratio that meets your risk management strategy. Therefore you can safely take a very high probability trade while managing risks well. Successful trading is mostly determined by how well you manage risks. Finally, since options are leveraged, one should always try to time their entry as perfectly as possible by using shorter timeframe (hourly or 4-hour) charts, especially if the option's expiration is close. For example, you can see that the 4 hour chart for VEEV is showing momentum building back to the upside. This is what you want to see if you're going to sell a put option strategy that expires on 9/16. These are just my thoughts and they are definitely not meant to be trading advice. As always, anything can happen. September can often be a volatile month and is prone to declines. Options trading is risky and can result in complete loss. Trade at your own risk. If you would like me to post more strategies like this on here leave a boost or a comment below so I can gauge interest. Thank you. If you're new to trading and don't understand the options trading language that I used above, I would recommend Project Finance to learn about options. I learned a ton about options trading from this channel and the content is always high-quality: www.youtube.com If you want to learn more about the basics of trading, you can see my post linked below for 10 rules for successful trading.
NYSE:VEEV
by SpyMasterTrades
22
EUR/USD Short-Term Rebound!• The weekly S1 (0.9880) provided support for the EUR/USD, which has since attempted to close the gap. It has encountered resistance at 0.9935 and currently appears to be unsure. It might shift sideways in the near future. • Price declines are still possible as long as the pair remains below the descending pitchfork's Resistance Trendline, signaling a bearish bias. A new sell-off could be announced if the gap is not closed. Only a valid breakout above the Resistance Trendline could signal a larger growth. Good Luck Traders!
Short
by DredDine
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Gap fill on NZDCADTrade Idea: Selling NZDCAD Reasoning: Filled the overnight gap at likely to head lower Entry Level: 0.8016 Take Profit Level: 0.7962 Stop Loss: 0.8031 Risk/Reward: 3.67:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Short
by Signal_Centre
1