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AUDJPY Trading Within Downwards ChannelAUDJPY Daily – Since late November 2015, AUDJPY has been trading within a downwards channel. As we head towards the final quarter of 2016, investors will be focussing on the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Japan who could both cut rates even further. Earlier this week, the RBA chose to keep rates unchanged but low inflation rates and a lower than expected GDP figure for Q2 could see the RBA cut rates for a third time before the end of the year. The past month has seen the Aussie Dollar making high gains as commodities have started to regain losses and the Chinese economy has begun to stabilise but this means that it is more expensive to import from Australia which further strengthens the case to reduce interest rates. A weaker currency would also help the economy to stabilise further as well as increase foreign investment into Australian bonds. The Australian Dollar and Japanese Yen will both be affected by the decision of the FOMC and whether they still intend to hike rates this year. Koichi Hamada, an economic adviser to the Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has said that the Bank of Japan should wait until the US make a decision later on this month about whether to rate hikes or not because it could have a greater effect compared to any decision the Bank of Japan makes. The Bank of Japan governor said that they will continue to ease monetary policy until they reach their inflation target of 2% which could mean further interest rate cuts. The main issue faced by Japan currently, is that decision by the central bank are having an opposite effect with the Japanese Yen strengthening rather than weakening. This has heavily hit their economy with the GDP in the second quarter falling to 0.2% as they rely heavily on exports. Over the coming months, the movement of this pair will depend largely on decisions made by the US Federal Reserve. With the Yen seen as a safe haven, further interest rate cuts or a weakening world economy would see AUDJPY falling towards 72.000. Alternatively, this pair could continue upwards as it has done recently and test the level of 80.000.
Short
by priyesh
XAUUSD : Review on Various Bull Possiblities.Its been very evident that even the strongest bears went positive since BREXIT on Precious Metals for intermittent rally or pullback from the supercycles as we call. Everybody would agree that 1300-1310 would serve as strong demand area and resistance from previous tops especially March 2015 highs. The breach woud open the gate to 12XX and bear would take thier chance to push down as much as possible it can. Probably 1250-1211 would be bears targeting for. On current Daily Chart I see huge range play from 1300-1330 for next whole week and I believe this the last bear week and will make perfect Bull Flag on weekly. We have bottomed the STOCH and RSI hover around 48-50 on daily. So Huge Sideways possible within range till 27 July, Yellen still might not give green signal to rate hikes in august as statisticians or Economists would treat previous two NFP data as Anomaolies and would wait for more evidence on job reports. Dovish stand likely to induce rally in all PM and would again try to target previous tops and 1375-1390 Region. I have charted all bull possiblites, if not anyone of those being played, God help the bulls !! because it will dive down so hard that even bear has not imagine. Good Luck for Next Week Happy Trading.
FX:XAUUSD
by robus
1
SHORT EURUSD: ECB MEMBER NOWOTNY + DOWNSIDE ECONOMIC REVISIONSECB nowotny reiterated senior member official sentiments regarding the situation with Italian banks unsurprisingly saying people "Should not over dramatise situation regarding Italian Banks". He also hawkish said that the Brexit impact forecasted on the EUROZONE economy would be less than the IMF forecasts. Perhaps the most important sentiment though was that regarding the ECB's APP which is due to end in March 2017 saying "Future path of QE decision to be made in Q4" and "Still open to whether to phase QE purchases out or not" - providing little inferences whether the ECB expects to extend or end their APP. However, one would think, unless the underlying inflation trend was to pick up, certainly there would be an extension/ phase out of QE. A source from social media reported on the matter with more conviction and to the hawkish side saying "Reports Said To See No Current Urgency For QE Action In September". Nowotny playing his cards close to his chest regarding the future ECB QE path is unsurprising, however, the Social Media Report claims are a little more worrying given they somewhat write off fresh QE action for the ECB's september meeting - something which many banks/ consensus thought would be the case, given the persistently low Euro inflation and hints from ECB minutes/ Draghi that maturity extension would be likely at the September meeting. However, the authenticity/ reliability of the reports has to be considered given the source is social media. On a more certain note the ECB Polled forecasters posted dovish/ EUR bearish economic outlook figures for EUR, downgrading GDP and inflation readings for 2017 and 18, with 2016 staying unchanged . Trading strategy: 1. This personally doesnt change my material medium-term short EUR$ 1.1100 trade as the macro headwinds/ future headwinds described in previous posts still go unpriced. Though the short view is weakened slightly IF the above "no QE extension" is true since some of the future EUR$ downside was based on further ECB easing. Though all of which is just speculation, and without any conviction from officials, waiting for the September decision itself seems the smartest thing to do continuing short - especially as forecasted GDP/ Inflation figures have been reduced which is bearish for the EUR and as the USD leg of the trade continues to strengthen as rate hike expectations continue to increase in this risk-on market with Fed Funds Futures Opt Implied probs now trading at 19.5% for Sept, 20.8% Nove and 40% for Dec, up from yesterday at 18.8, 20 an 39.8 - the risk-on bias already started today will likely see these probabilities continue to strengthen until the end of the day. ECB Member Nowotny Comments: -ECB's Member Nowotny: "In principle decision from 2nd June not to employ new monetary tools remains true, new uncertainties have emerged." -ECB's Member Nowotny: Still open on whether QE will be phased out gradually or not -ECB's Member Nowotny: Future path Decision on QE to be made in Q4 -ECB's Member Nowotny: EZ 2017 Inflation Seen Over 1%, Sees No Acute Danger Of Deflation -ECB's Nowotny: BREXIT Effect on Eurozone GDP expected to be less than IMF forecast -ECB's Nowotny: Should not over dramatise situation regarding Italian Banks ECB Polled Forecasters: -ECB: Polled Forecasters See Eurozone 2016 HICP at 0.3%, Matching Previous Quarter -ECB: Forecasters See 2017 HICP at 1.2%, vs 1.3% Seen in 2Q -ECB: Forecasters See 2018 HICP at 1.5% vs 1.6% Seen in 2Q -ECB: Forecasters See 2016 GDP Growth at 1.5%, Matching Previous Qtr -ECB: Forecasters See 2017 GDP Growth at 1.4% vs 1.6% Seen in 2Q -ECB: Forecasters See 2018 GDP Growth at 1.6% vs 1.7% Seen in 2Q -ECB: 55% Of Respondents Included Estimate of UK Referendum Impact in Forecasts *See attached posts for more EUR$ downside fundamentals*
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
GBPUSD SHORT: BOE/ FOMC POLICY EXPECTATIONS INCREASINGLY BEARISHFollowing today's Service/ Manufacturing PMI miss (worst contraction in 88 months - since 2009) the Sterling market has come under significant pressure as BOE rate cut expectations increase with OIS rates markets pricing a 94% chance of a 4th Aug cut vs 85% before the PMI's were released. Further, the PMI misses has attracted attention from UK Politicians e.g. Chancellor Hammond - which puts further qualitative pressure on the BOE to cut, rather than just quantitative data prints - Political pressure combined with data pressure is the best us GBP sellers can ask for when looking for a BOE rate cut. I have to say this is a breath of fresh air for GBPUSD shorts that i am holding (cable trades down to 1.30xx) - given that the start of the week was the complete opposite, with strong CPI/ Employment and Hawkish comments from MPC members Weale and Forbes; all of which reducing the pressure on the BOE to cut and thus the sterling market. Below also, following the PMIs we see Aug 4th BOE expectations from BoAML/ JPM - which call for a 25bps cut and 50bn addition to QE (with increased near-term pressure to do so/ act post-PMI) - in which imo will send GBP$ to 1.25, if not through - these expectations are encouraging for shorts thougb it should be remembered the cut was expected in July also but didnt materialise (though the minutes from the meeting did state "most members expect to ease in August". Further we see fresh recession concerns emerge as from Barclays below - once again putting downside pressure on GBP through poor GDP and increased BOE cut likihoods. Further, on the USD side of the trade, in this risk recovery we continue to view FOMC rate hike expectations rising - aiding dollar topside (and gbp$ downside) - as Fed Funds Futures Opt Implied probs now trade at 19.5% for Sept, 20.8% Nov and 40% for Dec, up from yesterday at 18.8, 20 an 39.8 - the risk-on bias already started today will likely see these probabilities continue to strengthen through the end of the day. Trading Strategy: 1. So from here after holding shorts at 1.3400 average, given this fresh and extreme impetus for downside - I will continue to hold my cable lower to the 1.285 target (unload 50%) and save 25-50% (depending if i unload 25% at the 1.305 level) for the Aug meeting itself where 1.25 is likely - where before today holding cable seemed more risky as the risks looked skewed to a hawkish BOE, which now has flipped. Unlikely, but any rallies to 1.33-35 level i will be reshorting - cable downside is a function of time imo. - I like holding short because BOJ are likely to ease, whilst the FOMC stay neutral/ Hawkish, this in turn puts more pressure on the BOE to ease/ GBP - in order to prevent GBP appreciating vs JPY (disinflationairy) BOE must ease too & hawkish FED stance puts pressure on GBPUSD lower. - Risks to the view continue to be if 1) New/ Weale/ Forbes continue to reiterate their hawkish/ no easing stance and perhaps less impactful; 2) Next weeks UK GDP reading - will not contain much Post brexit data so any upside is unlikely to give GBP strength, though downside is welcomed and could cause further selling (Low pre-Brexit GDP gives BOE more reason to cut) GBP OIS PRICING A 94% CHANCE OF A 25BPS CUT FROM THE BOE IN AUGUST (85% PRE PMI) - UK CHANCELLOR HAMMOND: Must restore uncertainty after July PMI - UK CHANCELLOR HAMMOND: BOE will use monetary policy tools at its disposal - UK CHANCELLOR HAMMOND: BOE have tools to respond to market turbulence in the short-term BoAML ON BOE: - We look for the BoE to cut rates 25bp and increase QE by £50bn in August, split between Gilts and private sector assets. - BoE inaction so far and heightened policy uncertainty leaves risk-reward unattractive in the front end in our view. - We prefer to position for potential BoE Gilt purchases, reiterating our 5s20s Gilt flattener as attractive in a QE-scenario. JP MORGAN ON BOE: - Current market pricing of a 25bps rate
Short
by QuantumLogicTrading
2
USDCAD - waiting for candlestick formationCaddy approaching serious technical support zone (1,33-1,34) -200 dma + trendline Need to watch for crude oil price as USDCAD and WTI intraday correlation is very strong. Also waiting for bullish reversal candlestick formation, not opening position without seeing that. Fundamentally both US and Canadian GDP figures outperformed, inflation momentum is picking up also, giving less room/opportunity for FED and BoC for being loose on monetary policy. Being patient and observing this opportunity. For Hungarian followers: www.geopro.hu
Long
by RobertSoos
Pound Sterling and CABLE WEAKNESS is Signaling Monetary SurpriseRE: Global Macro Update Regarding European Union, #ECB, and UK The way the #Euro is strengthening relative to the Pound, and particularly the way the #CABLE $GBPUSD cross-rate is falling out of bed is about to unleash shock-waves of negative #sentiment through the European Euro STOXX Equity Markets $FEZ. According to RunningAlpha.com Capital Markets Intelligence, this currency market action is portending a monetary surprise announcement; and any rate hike in Europe to stem a soon to be out of control falling CABLE would backfire, as it would just put dangerous downward pressure on UK's GDP and Britain's Industrial production, ultimately further weakening the #Pound #Sterling Best regards, Efrem -- Looking for better times ahead in the USA after this initial start of the year shock in USA equity markets abates in the not too distant future ( as indicated in prior memos at Running Alpha.com; as the situation rapidly deteriorates in Europe, capital will likely migrates out of Europe into the USA in earnest.
FX:SPX500Short
by runningalpha
XAUUSD: Gold uptrend?We have an interesting technical setup in gold, might start moving today with the US GDP news. Anything under 1143.26 is a buy, as long as above 1129.87. Aim for a retest of the high at 1156.65 initially, then for target #2 we can look to take some profits at 1170-1176, and for target #3 we get a lower probability move to 1220.38. You can split the entry in 3 orders like I did, will be better for managing the position. You can use either 1122 or 1129.87 for an SL (or both for different portions of the trade). I'll give you live updates and trade management cues via my zulutrade page, as usual. Check out my profile for the link. Good luck, Ivan.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
14
EUR/USD NEARS MAIN SUPPORT AREA AFTER US GDP SURPRISERevised US GDP figures turned out to be a lot more bullish than analysts had expected. The economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.7% in the second quarter, much stronger than the 3.2% rate markets were expecting, instead of the originally estimated 2.3%. Thus, GDP is now estimated to have grown by an average 2.15% during the first half of the year, even after the dismal 0.6% first quarter expansion, which is on par with the post-recession trend. The market reaction was straightforward: dollar was boosted against major counterparts. EUR/USD slid below 1.1250 and is now heading for the main support cluster 1.1155-1.1200. The test of this zone will determine the prevailing trend in this pair. Listed below are links to GBP/USD and EUR/JPY ideas.
by Nickonomics
EURUSD: Counter Trend @ 1.12s or TCT In Anticipation of the moveA lot of my radar today going around my trading portfolio including the EURUSD. After being stopped out for a loss on yesterday’s bullish Bat pattern, we re-did our IPDE process and started making predictions for our next opportunities. I still don’t see a structure level that I’m a fan of on this pair that is until/unless we get down to the 1.1000 area, but the next potential speed bump may come around the 1.1200 even handle number. Aside from it being a psychological number, we have multiple harmonic moves setting up in that area, some Fibonacci extensions, and most importantly, looking left we’ve got structure leaving clues. As discussed in yesterday’s live session, the question just isn’t “where will we go?” but “how will we get there?” And this offers yet another trend continuation (TCT) opportunity if the market were to retrace in anticipation on that 1.1200 level being hit. Of course counter trend (CT) traders, this makes no difference to you as you’re only waiting for the next structure level. We’ve got the Jackson Hole Symposium going on today which may provide some movement along with Pre-GDP and our normal Thursday Unemployment Claims out at 8:30am & Pending Home Sales at 10:00am. I don’t even try to pretend that I can predict the outcome of these events, but keep those in mind while trading today. We’ll be keeping an eye out for this one in our live trading room today along with potential trades on the GBPUSD, EURJPY, GBPJPY & USDCAD which are all high on my radar. Also it’s THURSDAY so make sure you check out my Youtube page later for my weekly Forex Trading Video www.youtube.com Have a great day of trading gang! Akil Stokes Chief Currency Analysis at Trade Empowered Click here for 20+ hours of FREE Training tradeempowered.com Click the link below to subscribe for more FOREX TRADING videos www.youtube.com Facebook: www.facebook.com Twitter: twitter.com
by Akil_Stokes
23
EURUSD: A Look Ahead (Day 3) "Keep An Eye on GDP Today" As I told my Syndicate members last night, although we’re at a minor level of structure, double bottomed at that level (LTF) and are currently putting in a 2618 on the Euro, I have no intentions of buying. It’s not a Greece thing, or the fact that I’m scared to pull the trigger after yesterday’s losing trade. It’s simply because I have no real place that I would feel comfortable taking targets at. So instead of forcing a revenge trade (like I almost did with USDJPY yesterday for you guys in the live room) I’ll reload my I.P.D.E. and start from scratch like I do every day. LONG The next area that I would consider getting long is down at the 1.1060s area. We’ve got price action holding support there 4 times in the past two months as well as some Fibonacci confluence between a 1.272 extension and a 61.8 retracement. Obviously I’m not placing an aggressive limit order there like I would with an advanced pattern but that’s where I’ll be looking for entry reasons. At 8:30am New York time we have US Final GDP coming out. I think this is going to be big. We all know the story by now about interest rate hikes and overall condition of the economy. Well there’s no better release is there. Yesterday the USD had a bad number, yet shook it off and still gained. This causes me to think that the overall sentiment in the market is still bullish the USD which means the market should be primed to jump all over a good GDP and ignore a poor one (talking about after the initial dust has settled). SHORT My only short option at the moment (aside from intraday trading) is to wait for a push back up to 1.1300 level. We’ve got a 61.8 Fibonacci retracement and some previous structure up there, but my reversal zone would be rather large which is why I’m not too interested for today. I’d like to see what price action does up there first. We may also be setting up a smaller gartley pattern (1hr) right below a minor structure level at 1.1260’s which is worth keeping an eye on for you Lower Timeframe traders. We’ll see what the market has in store for us, but certainly keep an eye out for 8:30am NY. Other trades on my radar are the AUDCAD and the AUDUSD Akil Stokes Chief Currency Analyst at www.TradeEmpowered.com Akil@Tradeempowered.com Check Out My FREE Weekly videos at www.youtube.com
by Akil_Stokes
4
DXY / 4HR / CYPHER + DOUBLE TOP + GDP?Hello traders, our daily trading video was recently released on our YouTube channel. We have the USD GDP figures coming out tonight. Are we looking for a bearish move to continue the completed bearish cypher pattern to targets and double top in play? Or are we more than likely to see the continue bullish rising and strength of the dollar. Let me know your thoughts below based on the tech and fundamentals that are presented to us. Star Prosper Philip Stewart
INDEX:DXY
by UnknownUnicorn168204
"Tips for buying" _Russian Financial MarketStrengths: -Enhancement The ruble by 18% from 2014 lows against the euro and dollario . -Stock exchange ( MICEX ) since the beginning of 2015 to + 16 % -Large Margin recovery for the ruble to reach the pre-crisis levels of June 2014 . -Rate Interbank Repo 14% cut in view of the revision of reducing inflation (target 2017-4 % ) - Bond 10y 12% - Bond corporate high -a Ratio of debt / GDP ratio to a minimum ( 13 vs 132 Italy ) - Unemployment the US levels (about 5.8) Points of weakness: GDP in 2015 negative , reflects the impact of the devaluation of the ruble , the sanctions and the collapse of commodity prices . Financial markets anticipate more than economic
Long
by guado77