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Australian CPI falls but markets not impressedThe Australian dollar continues to have a quiet week. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6796 in the European session, up 0.06% on the day at the time of writing. Australia’s inflation rate continued to decelerate in July, although the markets were hoping for more. CPI rose 3.5%, down from 3.8% in June but above the market estimate of 3.4%. This was the lowest figure since March but much of the decline was driven by electricity rebates which artificially lowered electricity prices. Core inflation eased but goods inflation remained flat. The markets weren’t impressed with the inflation data and the odds of a rate cut in November fell to 48%, down from 58% prior to the inflation release. The markets are more dovish than the Reserve Bank of Australia, which has discussed raising rates at recent meetings. The central bank is not satisfied with the pace of underlying inflation and has projected that it won’t return to the target band of 2% to 3% until the end of 2025. Governor Bullock has said that the Bank has no plans to cut for at least six months, but the markets are betting that the RBA won’t stay on the sidelines while the Fed and other major central banks are lowering rates. The financial markets are hanging onto every word from FOMC members and we’ll hear from members Christopher Waller later today and Rafael Bostic early on Thursday. As well, the US releases second estimate GDP for the second quarter on Thursday. The initial estimate showed the economy powering ahead with a 2.8% gain, double the 1.4% pace in Q1. The second estimate is expected to confirm the initial reading and confirm that the economy remains in solid shape, despite concerns about a weak employment labor which led to a market meltdown earlier this month. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6784. Below, there is support at 0.6771 0.6805 and 0.6818 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
Is SP500 strike to cover crisisDear All, This is SP500 to GDP Ratio chart which is show us maybe we should ready for another crisis. If you compare this chart to Will500PR to GDP Ratio I have published before you can clearly see negative bearish divergence between these two that means total public traded shares do not touched higher top but SP500 index reaches higher rates; So its obvious to see a sharp shrinkage as soon as possible. See if FED can cover it by soft landing or not?
SP:SPXShort
by AtareumFX
GBP/USD extends gains as retail sales bounce backThe British pound has extended its gains on Friday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2887 in the European session, up 0.31% on the day at the time of writing. It has been a winning week for the pound, which has climbed 1%. There was more good news from the UK economy as retail sales rebounded in July by 0.5% m/m, after a revised decline of 0.9% in June and in line with the market estimate. Annually, GDP surged 1.4%, compared to -0.8% in June and matching the market estimate. The pound has moved higher in response to the positive retail sales data. The bounce in retail sales reflects summer discounts and purchases related to the Euro 2024 and the Paris Olympics, such as apparel. As well, with inflation finally under control and running close to 2%, consumers are responding by opening up their wallets and purses. The positive retail sales report follows yesterday’s solid GDP release. The UK economy recorded rose 0.6% in Q2, a second straight quarter of growth. The economy is showing some strength in the second quarter but that may not have much effect on the Bank of England’s rate path. The increase in growth may not be sustainable and BoE policy makers have said that they are more focused on inflation, particularly service inflation, which remains much higher than the BoE’s 2% target. The markets are expecting further cutting before the end of the year and have priced in a rate reduction at the November meeting. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2884. Above, there is resistance at 1.2914 1.2841 and 1.2811 are the next support levels
by OANDA
Euro-Zone GDP Quarterly *3M (QoQ)ECONOMICS:EUGDPQQ (+0.3 %) Q1/2024 source: EUROSTAT The Eurozone’s economy expanded by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2024, the fastest growth rate since the third quarter of 2022, to beat market expectations of a marginal 0.1% expansion and gain traction following muted readings since the fourth quarter of 2022. The result added leeway for the European Central Bank to refrain from cutting rates to a larger extent this year should inflationary pressures prove to be more stubborn than previously expected. Among the currency bloc’s largest economies, both the German and the French GDPs expanded by 0.2%, while that from Italy grew by 0.3% and that from Spain expanded by 0.7%, all above market estimates. Compared to the same quarter of the previous year ECONOMICS:EUGDPYY , the Eurozone’s GDP grew by 0.4%, beating market expectations of 0.2%, and gaining traction after two straight quarters of 0.1% growth.
ECONOMICS:EUGDPQQ
by Mr_J__fx
240729 Weekly OutlookThe following week have major data release including, 240730 Tue CB Consumer Confidence **** 240731 Wed Fed Interest Rate Decision ***** 240801 Thu Initial Jobless Claims **** 240801 Fri Nonfarm Payrolls ***** Unemployment Rate ***** Consumer Confidence is the major leading indicator alongside Michigan Consumer index. Investors should follow the rise of two indexes to lead increase in economic data like inflation, GDP, labor market conditions, as well as economic conditions. Fed rate is expected to remain unchanged, while market discounting the first cut in the cycle to come in September. Labor market show resilience all the way that give space to maintain higher rates in this cycle for longer. Even the first rate cute is forecasted for September, I would still expect the higher rates to stay here for longer period due to resilient labor market, as shown by labor market indicators. There are no signs for S&P to weaken this time, rather shuttle up and down at high levels. Note that last adjustment in S&P followed the deviation of 12% from major trend line 200SMA. Attentive investors could observe it previously. When the market finally digest selling orders, S&P should resume the rising trend.
AMEX:VOO
by moncap2023
USD/JPY – Yen on a tear, US GDP blows past forecast The Japanese yen continues to gain ground against the US dollar. USD/JPY is trading at 153.68 early in the North American session, down 0.14% on the day. Earlier today, USD/JPY fell as low as 151.93 (1.3%), its lowest level since May 3, before paring most of these losses. The yen has soared, rising 2.4% this week and a staggering 4.5% in the month of July. There’s plenty of buzz but also uncertainty in the air as the yen has gone on a torrid run against the hapless US dollar. The yen jumped 1.1% on Wednesday after a senior Japanese official urged the Bank of Japan to normalize policy. As well, the sharp drop in global tech stocks sent investors fleeing to traditional safe havens, including the Japanese yen. The Bank of Japan meets on July 30-31 and it’s a close call as to whether it will stay on the sidelines or raise interest rates. The central bank is also expected to announce details of a plan to cut bond purchases in order to reduce its massive monetary stimulus. The BoJ has hinted that a rate hike is coming, but the question of timing is up in the air. Core inflation rose to 2.6% in June and wages have climbed sharply, setting up the case for the central bank to raise rates. On the other side of the coin, consumer spending has been weak and inflation is relatively moderate. The US economy climbed 2.8% y/y in the second quarter, double the 1.4% rate in the first quarter and blowing past the forecast of 2.0%. An increase in consumer spending helped drive the strong gain. On the inflation front, the personal consumption expenditures price index, a key measure for the Federal Reserve, eased to 2.6%, down from 3.4% in Q1. USD/JPY tested support at 152.68 earlier. Below, there is support at 151.45 There is resistance at 154.33 and 155.56
by fisherkj4
Hang Seng Slips after New Disappointing Chinese DataLast week’s soft CPI report showed that China has not escaped deflationary pressures and today’s data reaffirmed the weak consumer demand environment, as retail sales rose just 2% y/y in June and the worst print since late-2022. Adding to the woes, the economy grew by 4.7% y/y in Q2 and the slowest pace in more than a year. HKG33 slips after the new disappointing data and remains in peril of breaching the ascending trend line from the 2024 lows and the 50% Fibonacci of the advance from that low (at around 17,200). That could open the door to further losses towards 16,000, but we are cautious around such moves. This week’s new disappointing releases may aggravate concerns around the economy, but also raise the chances of more stimulus by Beijing just as the Third Plenum kicks off, where officials will have the chance to discuss supportive measures. HKG33 can find renewed support as a result and last week it managed to gain ground, overcoming the poor inflation report. Although the upside remains unfriendly, the index tries to hold the initiative about the EMA200 (black line) that keeps it on track for 18,736, but sustained advance towards this year’s peak 19,794 does not look easy. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:HKG33
by FXCM
GBP/USD hits 4-month high on strong GDPThe British pound has extended its gains on Thursday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2876 in the European session, up 0.22% on the day. The sun is shining in London today and there’s plenty to smile about besides the pleasant weather. England has punched their ticket to the final of the Euro football tournament and UK GDP was stronger than expected. The British pound headed higher and has hit its highest level since March 8. The UK economy is showing signs of a rebound after slipping into a recession in the second half of 2023. Annualized GDP jumped 1.4% in May, up from a revised 0.6% in April and beating the 1.2% market estimate. Monthly, GDP improved to 0.4% after zero growth in April and above the market estimate of 0.2%. The weather has played a significant role in the improved data. April was unusually rainy, which dampened consumer spending. May, however, was the warmest on record which revitalized retail sales. Inflation has declined dramatically, from 11.1% in October 2022 down to 2% in May, matching the Bank of England’s inflation target. This has raised expectations that the BoE will deliver a rate cut but the central bank remains cautious. The BoE meets next on August 1 and markets expectations are a 50/50 coin toss as to whether the Bank will hold or take the plunge and lower rates. In the US, Federal Reserve Chair Powell wrapped up two days of testimony before US lawmakers. Powell signaled that the Fed was moving closer to a rate cut decision but it was too early to declare victory over inflation and said “more good data” was needed before the Fed would feel confident lowering rates. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2872. Above, there is resistance at 1.2897 1.2825 and 1.2800 are the next support levels
by OANDA
NZD edges lower ahead of RBNZ decisionThe New Zealand dollar is steady on Tuesday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6115, down 0.16% in the European session at the time of writing. The New Zealand dollar looked sharp last week against the slumping US dollar, climbing 0.88%. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to hold its cash rate at 5.50% for an eighth straight time when its meets early on Wednesday. The RBNZ has been unwilling to shift away from its ‘higher for longer’ stance, despite the worsening economic downturn. The services and manufacturing sectors are both showing contraction and consumer and business confidence has been weak. The economy posted annual growth of only 0.3% in the first quarter after two quarters of contraction, which is a technical recession. The weak New Zealand economy badly needs a rate cut to kick-start growth, but the RBNZ’s first priority is to bring inflation back down to the target band of 1% to 3%, preferably around the 2% midpoint. Inflation eased from 4.7% to 4.0% in the first quarter but this is still above the target band. What can we expect from the central bank? With a rate hold widely expected at Wednesday’s meeting, the focus will be on the tone of the rate statement. At the previous meeting in May, the RBNZ projected that it wouldn’t lower rates until the third quarter of 2025 and the economy may have worsened since then, which could delay a rate cut even further. I expect that the message from Wednesday’s meeting is that rates will not drop before the inflation picture improves and the RBNZ could warn that rate hikes remain on the table. NZD/USD is testing support at 0.6114. Below, there is support at 0.6079 0.6180 and 0.6215 are the next lines of resistance
by OANDA
Euro eyes French inflationThe euro has gained ground on Thursday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0707, up 0.26% on the day. The euro has stayed close to the 1.07 line for much of the week as it looks for direction. The eurozone releases the June inflation report next week. The French inflation release, which will be released on Friday, could be a precursor for the eurozone release. French inflation is expected to rise to 2.5% y/y, up from 2.3% in April. Monthly, CPI is expected to tick up to 0.1%, up from 0% in May. The European Central Bank will be hoping that inflation moves lower towards the 2% target. The ECB cut interest rates earlier this month and another rate cut will largely depend on the direction that inflation takes. Policy makers have long been concerned about an inflation rebound following a rate cut and an increase in eurozone inflation next week would dampen hopes of another rate cut in the near term. The ECB meets next on July 18th. It has been a relatively quiet week for the euro but that could change on the weekend, as French voters go to the polls in the first round of a parliamentary vote. French President Macron called the snap elections after the extreme right made sharp gains in the recent European Parliamentary elections. Macron is hoping to mobilize the center, but if his plan backfires and the extreme right gains ground, it will trigger uncertainty in France and the financial markets and the euro would likely take a tumble. The election drama could mean volatility from the euro on Monday. In the US, Final (third estimate) GDP posted a gain of 1.4% q/q, as expected. This was slightly higher than the 1.3% gain in the second estimate. The US economy has slowed down significantly in the first quarter, after a strong gain of 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023. Still, the Fed is yet to cut rates due to unexpectedly high inflation. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0710. Above, there is resistance at 1.0740 1.0688 and 1.0658 are providing support
by OANDA
GBP/USD dips as UK growth stallsThe British pound has lost ground on Thursday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2760 in the North American session at the time of writing, down 0.29% on the day. The UK economy showed no growth in April, which was in line with expectations but below the March reading of 0.4% m/m. This was the weakest reading in four months, as manufacturing and construction declined, offsetting the rise in services. Yearly, GDP rose 0.6% in April, down from 0.7% in May and in line with expectations. April showers dampened consumer spending as the UK economy continues to struggle. With a national election taking place on July 4th, politicians will be monitoring and making use of every economic release. The ruling Conservatives are trailing badly in the polls and today’s weak GDP could well be another nail in the coffin for the Conservatives. The Bank of England meets next week but there is little chance a rate cut in the middle of an election campaign. The markets have priced in an initial rate cut in September, although an August cut is a possibility, when the BoE releases quarterly growth and inflation forecasts. The advantage of waiting till September is that the Fed may cut at its September meeting, which is a day before the BoE meets. If the Fed does trim rates, then a BoE cut would not have as much negative impact on the British pound. In the US, May inflation decelerated. The headline figure fell from 3.4% y/y to 3.3% and the core rate dropped from 3.6% to 3.4%. The Federal Reserve held the benchmark rate, as expected, but noted that inflation was moving closer to the 2% target. The Fed remains cautious and has signaled just one rate cut before the end of the year. The probability of a quarter-point cut in September is 61%, according to CME’s FedWatch. GBP/USD is testing support at 1.2796. Below, there is support at 1.2733 1.2862 and 1.2925 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
GBP/USD shrugs as UK unemployment rises, GDP nextThe British pound is drifting on Tuesday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2720 in the European session at the time of writing, down 0.08% on the day. The UK released the May employment report earlier today. Next up is GDP on Wednesday, with a market estimate of 0% m/m for April, following a 0.4% gain in March. Today’s UK employment report indicated that the labor market continues to cool down, with a notable rise in unemployment. Claimants for unemployment benefits jumped by 50.4 thousand in May, up sharply from a revised 8.4 thousand increase in April and higher than the market estimate of 10.2 thousand. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% in the three months to April, up from 4.3% in the previous period and the market estimate of 4.3%. Job growth continued to slow, falling by 139,000. Wage growth in the private sector, a key gauge for the central bank, fell to 5.8%, its lowest level since mid-2022. The drop in wage growth was impressive as the government hiked the minimum wage by 9.8% in April and there were concerns that sharp increase would send wage growth higher. The job numbers will be a relief for the Bank of England, which needs to see a weaker labor market in order to start lowering rates. There won’t be a rate cut at the next meeting in June due to the national election on July 4th. The markets have fully priced a quarter-point cut by November and the employment report has raised the likelihood of a second cut before the end of the year to 40%, up from 20% on Monday, prior to the employment report. During the election campaign, BoE policy makers have cancelled all speeches and public appearances, which means there won’t be any feedback from the BoE about today’s inflation report and other key data over the next several weeks. GBP/USD is putting pressure on resistance at 1.2745. Above, there is resistance at 1.2795 1.2671 and 1.2621 are providing support
by OANDA
USD/JPY calm as GDP within expectationsThe Japanese yen is calm on Monday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.91, up 0.09% on the day at the time of writing. Japan’s GDP declines Japan’s economy contracted in the first quarter with a weak reading of -1.8% y/y, following a revised 0.4% gain in Q4 2023. This was slightly higher than the market estimate of -1.9% and the initial estimate of -2.0%. On a quarterly basis, GDP declined by 0.5%, in line with expectations. This followed a small gain of 0.1% in the fourth quarter. The weak GDP data follows a soft household spending release last week, which showed decline of 1.2% m/m in April. The Bank of Japan meets on June 14th and is not expected to raise interest rates, after a historic rate hike in March. This was the first rate hike since 2007 and a clear shift away from the BoJ’s ultra-loose monetary policy. There is speculation that the BoJ might discuss reducing its purchases of Japanese government bonds in an effort to unwind monetary policy in order to shore up the ailing Japanese yen. Strong US nonfarm payrolls boost US dollar Friday’s US nonfarm payroll report was hotter than expected and provided a boost to the US dollar against all the major currencies, including the yen. Nonfarm payrolls in May rose to 272 thousand, blowing past the market estimate of 185,000 and much stronger than the revised gain of 165 thousand in April. Wage growth accelerated in May and was also higher than expected. Surprisingly, the unemployment rate crept up to 4%, up from 3.9% in April and above the market estimate of 3.9%. The strong job numbers have helped cushion the impact on the economy of high rates and that has kept inflation stubbornly high. According the CME’s MarketWatch, the odds of a quarter-point cut in September have dropped to 46%, compared to 51% just one week ago. There is virtually no chance of a rate cut at this week’s meeting, but investors will be very interested in what the Fed has to say. There is resistance at 157.52 and 158.28 156.33 and 155.57 are providing support
by OANDA
USD/JPY steady despite soft household spendingThe Japanese yen is calm on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 155.50, down 0.06% on the day at the time of writing. Japan’s economic activity has been sluggish and household spending, a key driver of economic growth, declined by 1.2% m/m in April. This followed a 1.2% gain in March and was well short of the market estimate of 0.2%. On a yearly basis, household spending rose 0.5%, up from -1.2% but short of the market estimate of 0.6%. Japanese households have been curbing spending as inflation is high and economic conditions remain gloomy. On Monday, we’ll get a look at Japan’s GDP for the first quarter and the forecast is not looking good. The economy is expected to have contracted by 0.5% q/q in Q1 after no growth in the fourth quarter of 2023. This would point to the economy barely avoiding a recession. On an annualized basis, the economy is expected to have declined by 2% after a gain of 0.4% in the fourth quarter. The Bank of Japan meets on June 14th and a weak GDP report could complicate plans to tighten policy. The BoJ has hinted that it will continue on the path to normalization but if the central bank doesn’t make any moves at the June meeting, the weak Japanese yen could lose more ground. In the US, the week wraps up with the nonfarm payrolls report for May. This release is one of the most important events on the data calendar but has found itself overshadowed by inflation releases. Still, nonfarm payrolls is a market-mover that can have a significant impact on the US dollar. The market estimate stands at 185,000 for May, little changed from the 175,000 gain in April. USD/JPY tested resistance at 155.81 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 156.21 155.19 was tested in support earlier. The next support level is 154.74
by OANDA
USD/JPY eyes household spendingThe Japanese yen is steady on Thursday after showing sharp swings throughout the week. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 156.27, up 0.10% on the day at the time of writing. Japan’s consumers have been holding tight on the purse strings as inflation remains high and economic conditions remain gloomy. In March, household spending declined to 1.2% m/m, down from 1.4% in February. The downswing is expected to continue, with a market estimate of just 0.2% for April. Japan releases GDP on Monday and the markets are bracing for some bad news. Japan’s economy is expected to have contracted in the first quarter, with a market estimate of -0.5% q/q, after no growth in the fourth quarter of 2023. Yearly, the economy is expected to have contracted by 2.0%, after a small gain of 0.4% in the fourth quarter. Private sector demand has fallen and exports are also down. A weak GDP release could delay any plans at the Bank of Japan to tighten policy. The BoJ meets on June 14th and has hinted that it will take steps on the path towards normalization. The Japanese yen remains at low levels and could lose more ground if the BoJ doesn’t change any policy settings at the meeting. The US wraps up the week with nonfarm payrolls on Friday and the report is expected to show that the US labor market is slowly cooling off. In April, nonfarm payrolls fell to 175,000 down sharply from 330,000 in March. This marked the weakest job growth in six months. Little change is expected in the May report, with a market estimate of 185,000. USD/JPY tested support at 155.75 earlier. Below, there is support at 155.01 156.86 and 157.60 are the next support levels
by OANDA
Potential Head & Shoulders Forming! - AUHere I have AUD/USD on the 1 HR Chart! Price so far has began to form what looks to be a Strong Reversal Pattern, Head & Shoulders! You can see a clear Left Shoulder falling down to the Support Zone creating our "Neckline" @ .6633! Followed by the creation of the "Head" being a rejection off the Falling Resistance back down to the "Neckline" and NOW finally to potentially finish the Right Shoulder! Based on the first shoulder, the Resistance Zone @ ( .6671 - .6665 ) and with the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Level matching the height of the Left Shoulder @ .66727, I am looking for Price to hit this very spot and then show rejection pushing price back down to the Neckline for CONFIRMATION OF PATTERN!!! INVALIDATION OF PATTERN comes in if price decides to Break and Close above .66727 and is unable to move back down! Fundamentally, AUD had GDP come in at a .2% decrease and with heavier news for USD later this week, this idea could come to life so lets keep an eye out!! **On Confirmation of Pattern, I will be looking for a Target Profit down at Support @ .66000
Short
by Novi_Fibonacci
AUD/USD slides on weak Australian data, GDP nextThe Australian dollar continues to swing sharply this week. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6641 in the North American session, down 0.71% on the day. The downswing has wiped out the Aussie’s gains of 0.55% on Monday. Australia posted weak data earlier today, which has weighed on the Australian dollar. Corporate profits declined 2.5% q/q in the first quarter after revised growth of 7.1% in the fourth quarter. This was well short of the market estimate of -0.9%. On an annualized basis, corporate profits plunged 8.6%, marking a fourth straight quarter of contraction. Australia also posted a current account deficit of AUD 4.9 billion in the first quarter, after a revised surplus of AUD 2.7 billion in Q4 2023. This missed the market estimate of a surplus of AUD 5.9 billion. The trade surplus fell as imports rose and exports declined, as metal ore prices fell. Today’s silver lining was an improvement in retail sales, which rebounded with a small gain of 0.1% m/m in April, after a -0.4% reading in March Australia’s GDP is expected to fall to 1.2% y/y in the fourth quarter, compared to 1.5% in the fourth quarter of 2023. GDP is expected to show weak growth of 0.2% q/q in the first quarter, unchanged from Q4 2023. Consumer spending has been soft as consumers grapple with high interest rates and stubborn inflation. The March GDP data is expected to indicate that Australia narrowly avoided a recession. Normally, such an economic landscape would likely result in the Reserve Bank of Australia lowering rates in order to kick-start the limping economy. However, with inflation stickier than anticipated, the RBA is likely to wait before easing up on interest rates and hasn’t ruled out rate hikes in order to keep a lid on inflation. The RBA meets next on June 18th. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6641. Below, there is support at 0.6603 0.6692 and 0.6730 are the next resistance lines
by fisherkj4
EUR/USD climbs after US GDP, eurozone CPI nextThe euro has in positive territory on Thursday. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0840 in the North American session, up 0.37% on the day. The week wraps up with eurozone inflation on Friday. The market estimate for May stands at 2.5% y/y/, compared to 2.4% in April. The core inflation rate is expected to tick higher to 2.8% y/y, up from 2.7% in April. In Germany, the largest economy in the eurozone, inflation accelerated to 2.4% y/y in May, following a 2.2% gain in each of the past two months. This was the first time in five months that Germany’s inflation rate increased. On a monthly basis, inflation fell to 0.1%, a sharp drop from the 0.5% gain in April. The timing of the eurozone CPI release is significant, as it comes shortly before the European Central Bank rate meeting on June 6th. The ECB has strongly hinted that it will lower rates at the meeting and it would be a nasty surprise for the markets if the ECB changes its mind. With inflation under 3% and the eurozone grappling with sluggish economic activity, the conditions seems right for a rate cut. The ECB’s rate-tightening cycle has done a good job slashing inflation, and lower rates would provide some relief to households which are struggling with elevated rates and the high cost of living. In the US, second-estimate GDP was revised downwards to 1.3% y/y. This was below the 1.6% in the first estimate but higher than the market estimate of 1.2% and much weaker than the 3.4% gain in the fourth quarter of 2023. The drop in GDP was mainly attributable to weaker consumer spending, as consumers are yet to see any relief from the Fed’s high benchmark rate target of 5.25% to 5.50%. The Fed is concerned about stubbornly high inflation and FOMC members have been constantly pouring cold water on rate-cut expectations. The Fed has shown it can be patient and if the inflation picture doesn’t improve, it is conceivable that the Fed won’t lower rates before 2025. EUR/USD pushed past resistance at 1.0806 and is testing resistance at 1.0845 1.0765 and 1.0726 are the next support levels
by OANDA
Strifor || GOLD-30/05/2024Preferred direction: SELL Comment: There are no changes for gold , as for metals in general. A downward movement is also expected in silver , which we wrote about earlier. At the moment, the deal is going more, of course, within the framework of scenario №2 , but we remember that this deal was considered in combination with scenarios №1 and №2 , therefore, in general, the short is activated and an approach to support is expected at the level of 2300 with the potential for a fall to 2250 . Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Strifor
1
Strifor || GBPUSD-30/05/2024Preferred direction: SELL Comment: The British pound has almost the same setup for selling as the euro . For now, we are putting all purchases aside, and in the near future, a further fall is expected towards the level of 1.26000 , just above which we fix the target for this short. The most likely scenario №1 speaks of selling at current prices, one can try small stop losses, and it is better to re-enter. That is, this is an intraday trade. Scenario №2 involves shorting after a deeper pullback towards the 1.27500 level, but this is a very unlikely potential maneuver. Additional comments on this trade will be provided as situation changes. Follow us! Thank you for like and share your views!
Short
by Strifor
1