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Harmonic Patterns

Bitcoin (BITX) getting ready for a parabolic move? Here is a chart of probably my favorite swing trade for the year. I am keeping it simple with this chart though. I am a firm believer in simple when it comes to trading. I think the previous descension and breakout is playing out very similarly to the current one. Both had a double top rejecting from their respective trendlines following the initial breaks of structure. BITX is currently making its second tap of the the trendline. If it plays out like the previous structure did that would suggest w could see one more low in store. I don't believe this to be the case but if it is this run could be postponed until the end summer/beginning of fall. I think it is more important to point out the relative strength in Bitcoin as of late, the weakness in the US dollar, as well as global liquidity having broke out months ago. I think the most likely scenario is a pullback from this point which will be followed by a higher low printing. I will say I also expect this pullback to be steeper than the one from the previous descension. Bitcoin and Indices are a lot more overextended than they were last time around and the structure in indices is a lot weaker than before. All this being said I am expecting a breakout to occur over the next several weeks just based off probabilities. It all depends on if BTC and indices and hold their respective demand/support levels. Bitcoin needs to hold 85k in order for a summer breakout to occur. For the S&P equivalent level this could be somewhere around 5200-5300. If these assets are not able to hold these levels my confidence will shift pretty dramatically. I would still expect a major rally to take place around the Q4 timeframe but I would be expecting a lot less upside. Price would likely have to chop around for a while before deciding if it wants to continue to the upside. I am basing this off market structure/Dow theory. It is important to take all possibilities into account and ultimately let the charts do the talking.
CBOE:BITXLong
by ChazzyFreshh
3
GOLD Gold’s Trade Relationship with the US Dollar and Bond Market (May 2025) 1. Inverse Correlation Between Gold and the US Dollar Gold and the US Dollar Index (DXY) typically move in opposite directions. When the dollar weakens, gold prices tend to rise, and vice versa. This inverse relationship remains strong in 2025, with gold’s beta to the dollar shifting to around -0.7, amplifying the negative correlation. The US dollar has weakened about 8–9% year-to-date in 2025, contributing to gold’s surge to record highs above $3,500 per ounce. Dollar weakness is driven by factors such as slowing US growth forecasts, political uncertainty around Federal Reserve independence, and declining foreign demand for US Treasuries. 2. Gold’s Role as a Safe Haven Amid Bond Market Dynamics In 2025, gold has increasingly become the preferred safe-haven asset, especially as US Treasuries and the dollar have faced sell-offs. The bond market has experienced rising yields (e.g., 30-year Treasury yields hitting highs not seen since late 2023), which traditionally would pressure gold. However, geopolitical tensions, trade uncertainties, and concerns about real yields have driven investors toward gold instead of bonds. Gold’s correlation with real yields has shifted strongly negative (around -0.78), meaning that as real yields fall or remain negative, gold prices rise. Negative real interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, enhancing its appeal. 3. Impact of Monetary Policy and Inflation Expectations The Federal Reserve’s high nominal rates combined with inflation running above target have created negative real interest rates (nominal rates minus inflation), which historically support gold’s price appreciation. Expansionary monetary policies globally, including increased money supply growth (M2 up 8.3% YoY among G20 nations), provide liquidity that fuels gold demand. Tariff-induced inflation and geopolitical risks further elevate gold’s status as a hedge against monetary and trade policy uncertainty. 4. Summary of the Relationship US Dollar Weakness then Gold price rises (inverse correlation) and Dollar declines. Rising Bond Yields is Usually bearish for gold, but offset by safe-haven demand in 2025 Yields rise, bonds sell off Negative Real Yields is Strongly bullish for gold Real yields fall, reducing bond attractiveness Geopolitical/Tariff Uncertainty Boosts gold as safe haven Increases volatility in dollar and bond markets Monetary Expansion (Liquidity) Supports gold price Can pressure dollar value Conclusion In May 2025, gold’s price surge to record levels is primarily driven by a weaker US dollar and negative real bond yields, combined with geopolitical and trade uncertainties that have diminished the safe-haven appeal of US Treasuries. While rising nominal bond yields might typically weigh on gold, the prevailing negative real rates and investor preference for gold as a monetary hedge have reversed this trend. The strong inverse correlation between gold and the dollar remains a key dynamic shaping market behavior.
VANTAGE:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
2
ADAUSDT Analysis – 3D ChartCardano is currently trading within a falling wedge pattern on the 3-day timeframe, a structure typically considered bullish. Price is hovering above a key support zone around the $0.60–$0.68 range, showing signs of accumulation. Bullish divergence is visible on the RSI, indicating potential momentum shift. A confirmed breakout above the wedge resistance could trigger a strong rally, targeting the following levels: • First target: $0.8388 • Second target: $1.0049 • Final target: $1.1853 If ADA fails to hold the support zone, downside risk remains toward the deeper support near $0.40. However, as long as price remains inside the wedge, the setup favors the bulls.
Long
by MADPARIS
Tesla - The Next 7 Days Decide Everything!Tesla ( NASDAQ:TSLA ) is sitting at a crucial structure: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Despite the -60% correction which we have been seeing over the past couple of months, Tesla still continuously validates its overall uptrend. That's exactly the reason for my strong bullish thesis and the assumption, that after we see bullish confirmation, Tesla will reject the current support area. Levels to watch: $250, $400 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by basictradingtv
4
US10YA bond is essentially a loan made by an investor to a borrower, which can be a government or a corporation. It is a fixed-income financial instrument where the borrower agrees to pay back the principal amount (face value) on a specified maturity date and usually makes periodic interest payments called coupons to the bondholder. What Is a Government Bond? A government bond is a type of bond issued by a national government to raise funds. When you buy a government bond, you are lending money to the government in exchange for regular interest payments and the return of the bond’s face value at maturity. These bonds are often considered low-risk because they are backed by the government’s credit and taxing power. Why Do Governments Offer Bonds? Governments issue bonds primarily to: Finance Fiscal Deficits: Bonds help cover budget shortfalls without immediately raising taxes or cutting spending. Fund Public Projects: Money raised can be used for infrastructure, schools, hospitals, and other public services. Manage Debt: Governments use bonds to refinance maturing debt or restructure their debt profile. Control Monetary Policy: Central banks may buy or sell government bonds to influence money supply and interest rates. Develop Financial Markets: Issuing bonds establishes benchmark yields that help price other financial instruments and deepen capital markets Provide Investment Opportunities: Bonds offer a relatively safe investment option, encouraging savings and investment within the economy. Summary Aspect Explanation Bond A loan from an investor to a borrower with interest payments Government Bond Debt security issued by a government to fund spending Why Issued To finance deficits, fund projects, manage debt, and control monetary policy Risk Level Generally low risk due to government backing Investor Benefit Periodic interest (coupon) and principal repayment at maturity In short, government bonds are a crucial tool for governments to raise capital sustainably while providing investors with a relatively safe income stream. Difference Between Bond Yield and Bond Price and Their Effect on the US Dollar Bond Price vs. Bond Yield: The Inverse Relationship Bond Price is the current market value or price investors pay to buy a bond. It can be above (premium), below (discount), or equal to the bond’s face (par) value. Bond Yield is the return an investor earns on a bond, expressed as a percentage. It reflects the income from coupon payments relative to the bond’s current price, and can be calculated as the current yield or yield to maturity. Key point: Bond price and bond yield move in opposite directions. When bond prices rise, yields fall because the fixed coupon payments represent a smaller return relative to the higher price paid. When bond prices fall, yields rise to compensate investors for the lower price paid for the same fixed coupon payments. Why This Happens If interest rates in the market increase, new bonds offer higher coupon rates. Existing bonds with lower coupons become less attractive, so their prices drop to increase their effective yield to match market rates. Conversely, if interest rates fall, existing bonds with higher coupons become more valuable, pushing their prices up and yields down. How Bond Yields and Prices Affect the US Dollar Higher US Treasury Yields (rising yields due to falling bond prices) tend to strengthen the US dollar. This is because higher yields attract foreign investors seeking better returns on US debt, increasing demand for USD to buy Treasuries. Conversely, falling yields (rising bond prices) make US assets less attractive, potentially weakening the USD as capital flows out or seek higher returns elsewhere. The US Dollar Index (DXY) often moves in tandem with US Treasury yields because both reflect investor sentiment about US economic strength, inflation expectations, and Federal Reserve policy. When the Fed raises interest rates, bond yields typically rise, boosting the USD. When the Fed cuts rates, yields fall, putting downward pressure on the USD. In essence: When bond prices fall and yields rise, the US dollar tends to strengthen due to increased demand for higher-yielding US assets. Conversely, rising bond prices and falling yields usually weaken the dollar.
TVC:US10YLong
by Shavyfxhub