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Head and Shoulders

Short Volatility during rare spikes using leveraged ETF $UVXYOverview Volatility represents how greatly an asset’s prices swing around the mean price. Historically there are rarely brief volatility flare-ups that present trading opportunities. Trying to anticipate volatile events can be costly, because other market participants generally expect the same well known events, and one never knows how big a volatility spike might arise from a given event. Instead if one merely awaits extreme volatility events, which historically are ephemeral, there's a higher probability trade in shorting it. I've thought about this previously, and took the opportunity with Liberation Day to successfully short volatility. Volatility Instrument Selection Choosing an appropriate instrument can aid in the likelihood of a successful short position. Among the options CBOE:UVXY looks attractive for the trade, because it's a leveraged ETF, is highly liquid, and provides options with granular strike prices and expiration dates. Leveraged ETFs are known to decline over time due to Daily rebalancing and compounding effects Volatility drag Cost of leverage Management fees and expenses Path dependency These characteristics of leveraged ETFs provide a structural tailwind to a short position, because the instrument naturally declines over time. This phenomenon easy enough to see on a CBOE:UVXY weekly chart Moreover selection of a liquid product is prudent. At the time of writing CBOE:UVXY has an average daily volume north of $22 million dollars for the past 30 days. Trade execution Execution of the trade starts with recognition of a highly volatile event, this is both technical and discretionary. From there a trader is advised to use their preferred tactics to select entry, stop-loss and exit points. Personally I like to use chart patterns across different timeframes in tandem with Relative Strength Index, and to a lesser extent volume to identify trading setups. I use longer term charts to identify a trend, and shorter timeframe charts to determine entry and exit points. The timeframe(s) depend on the particular instrument and what the charts look like at the time of the trade. During the Liberation Day Volatility Short trade, I've been using 1W, 1D, 4H and 1H charts. The 1H chart has been suitable for entering an exiting trades. Head & Shoulders patterns have manifested both on price and momentum alongside declining volume. I've posted a couple CBOE:UVXY minds along the way. Additional Thoughts Volatility can also be used generally to anticipate moves in other asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, crypto and commodities. Using the levels from that last chart fed into successful NASDAQ:TQQQ & NASDAQ:SQQQ trades in the aftermath of Liberation Day.
CBOE:UVXYShort
by quickshiftinn
I'll Short BTC if? I'll Short BTC if I see it at 86k once again Too much weakness on 4h time frame But I'll use a tight stoploss there above the high My tp will be at 81000 or 80000 But at the end I'll definitely wait for the confirmations on the lower time frames because without confirmations it's total loss in trading. This trade is 1:10 risk to reward So it does not hurts me but i don't know about your margin and capital. So act accordingly manage your risk definitely. Profit and loss all is yours I'm not responsible for your profit and loss. I'm sharing my thoughts. So let's see how it plays out, One trade like this and you don't have to trade for months. Wait for the prey like a lion 🦁 Regards Trader Scorpion 🦂
Short
by Traderscorpion
Solana (SOL) Market Overview – April 17, 2025As of April 17, 2025, Solana (SOL) is trading at approximately $134.55 USD, reflecting a 5.48% increase from the previous close. ⸻ 📈 Technical Analysis Price Action & Momentum: • Recent Performance: SOL has rebounded from lows near $120 to around $134.55, positioning itself as one of the top-performing altcoins recently. • Support & Resistance Levels: • Immediate Support: $120 – Crucial for sustaining the current bullish momentum. • Resistance Zone: $133 – $135 – A breakout above this range could unlock further upside. Key Indicators: • RSI: 53.90 – Neutral momentum • MACD: -3.01 – Slightly bearish • Stochastic Oscillator: 92.14 – Overbought territory • ADX: 19.10 – Weak trend strength ⸻ 🧭 Fundamental Analysis Network Strength: • High Throughput & Low Fees: Solana continues to dominate with its scalable and low-cost blockchain infrastructure. Institutional Interest: • ETF Activity: Five ETF filings as of March 2025 highlight increased institutional trust in Solana. Market Sentiment: • Fear & Greed Index: 29 – Market is in “Fear” zone, potentially creating long-term buying opportunities. ⸻ 🔍 Summary Solana is showing bullish recovery signs driven by positive price action and ETF momentum. However, technicals suggest a cautious approach in the short term due to overbought signals and weak trend strength. Fundamentally, Solana’s powerful infrastructure and institutional support could fuel long-term growth.
Long
by sorooshx
EURGBP Flashes Two Bearish Technical Signals Ahead of LagardeEURGBP is giving negative technical signals ahead of the Lagarde's press conferance. After Trump announced new tariffs, the euro surprisingly gained against the pound. The U.S. imposed tariffs twice as large on the EU compared to the UK, with a minimum of 10% on UK goods. Despite this, the pound weakened more than expected. However, this move might prove to be temporary. The real focus of ECB will be on the outlook. Recent economic data, combined with the added pressure from tariffs, may push the ECB toward further rate cuts later this year. President Lagarde has been cautious for some time, offering few forward-looking signals. Today, markets will be closely watching for any hint of future easing. If Lagarde sounds more dovish than expected, the euro could come under renewed bearish pressure. EURGBP has been forming a head and shoulders-like pattern since the start of last week. It may currently be developing the second shoulder, depending on how the price moves today. A combination of 8–13 hour moving average crosses and RMI sell signals on the 60-minute chart has successfully captured all local tops since April 7. These same signals have appeared again today. If they prove accurate once more, the 0.8525 support level will be key. This level represents the neckline of the potential head and shoulders pattern. However, if EURGBP moves above 0.8620, the bearish setup would be invalidated.
Short
by ftdsystem
XRP forms inv. H&S, suggesting a 21% upsideXRP is nearing a key trendline with an inverse head and shoulders pointing to a possible breakout. Watch 2.1974 closely. Targets at 2.47 and 2.67 offer strong risk-reward. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:XRPUSDLong
by ThinkMarkets
1
EURUSD forms inverse head and shouldersEURUSD has stalled after testing key levels, but a new inverse head and shoulders is forming. We’re watching for a breakout above 1.1429, backed by correlated moves in GBPUSD and USDCHF. Triangle and flag patterns also point higher. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by ThinkMarkets
3
Trading Signals for GOLD we look to sell at $3,335 XAUUSD SELL PLAN @3330_3335 SL : @3345 TP : @3288 TP : @3253 Trade Analysis Early in the American session, gold is trading around 3,307, showing signs of exhaustion. A further technical correction toward the 21SMA is likely in the coming hours. On the H4 chart, we can see that gold is trading within a bullish trend channel formed on April 10th. It is likely that in the coming hours the metal could continue its a rise to 3,335 and could even reach 3,338. If gold breaks and consolidates below 3,288, we could expect a strong downward movement. So, the metal could continue its sell with a target at 3,274, and the price could eventually reach the +2/8 Murray located at 3,248. if gold rise towards the 8/8 Murray located at 3,335, we could expect confirmation first if the gold price consolidates above the +1/8 Murray, then it could reach this target. The indicator is reaching overbought levels, so we will look for opportunities to sell below its high of 3,335, with targets at 3,288, 3,274, and finally 3,248.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by CEO-PREMIUM-ANALYSIS
1
Strong reversal seen in LIC HSG FIN ????Hi Guys ! • As it is clearly visible from the chart that in downtrend LIC Hsg fin has formed inverse H&S, not only formed but it has break the neckline also with good volume. • Now to participate in rally wait for another green candle which will also called confirmation candle. •Once it confirms then enter the trade and target will be 20%-21% from the first broken candle. • Don't get confuse between target and entry should be after 2nd confirmation candle. • Stoploss will be low of right shoulder which will be 10%-11%. ***This are all my personal views and thoughts and not any recommendations***
NSE:LICHSGFINLong
by investorragnarok
NZDCHF market outlookFX:NZDCHF NZDCHF has came back and reached above its neck level of the QM pattern the second time, also having several demand zones reached and respected, pushing price upwards and forming a compression. We can keep an eye out on this pair and make decisions when it reaches the resistance zone once again. There are two possible scenarios that could happen, if it’s able to break above the resistance zone and close bullish candles, we can look for long opportunities and buy it to resistance 2 which is at 0.49630. If there is a strong rejection from resistance, we can then look for pullback and enter on shorts. However, due to the fact that NZDCHF is still very bearish on the H4 and Daily timeframes, our bias should be bearish and prioritize selling opportunities. On sell trades, we may be able to hold the position longer and target different take profit levels.
by CandleCipher
XRP/USDT I Reverse Short Squeeze Alert! Resistance at 2 USDTHey Traders after the success of my Previous trade this month on NASDAQ:HOOD hitting Target 1 & 2 in 2 days more than 16%+ With a Similar Trade setup But Crypto I bring you today BINANCE:XRPUSDT Short opportunity - Market structure - Head and shoulder pattern - Currently will be trading at supply zone which was a recent support and now an ideal place for a reversal which is taking place as we speak- 4 Hour TF. - Breakdown and retest - Risk Aversion Dynamics in Cryptocurrency Markets PROTIP/- Entry on Bearish candle stick pattern on Current Levels Stop Loss : 2.2292 Target 1 : 1.4707 Target 2 : 1.0507 Technical View The orange circle marks a double top within the supply zone, acting as the shoulders of a larger head and shoulders pattern, suggesting strong resistance. Bearish Trendline breakdown + Retest Risk Aversion Dynamics in Cryptocurrency Markets Fundamental View - How Current Affairs can effect this pair! The proposed imposition of significant tariffs, such as the 60% levy on Chinese imports suggested by former U.S. President Donald Trump, could trigger a chain reaction across global markets. This scenario would likely amplify risk aversion among investors, potentially catalyzing a sell-off in risk-sensitive assets like XRP (Ripple) in favor of perceived safe havens such as the U.S. dollar (and by extension, Tether/USDT). Below, we analyze the mechanics of this relationship and its implications for the XRP/USDT trading pair. 1. Tariff Escalation and Its Macroeconomic Consequences 1.1 Direct Impact on China’s Economy A 60% tariff on Chinese exports to the U.S. would directly reduce China’s export competitiveness, potentially lowering its GDP growth by 1.5–2.5 percentage points annually, according to UBS economists. This slowdown would exacerbate existing vulnerabilities in China’s economy, including a property market crisis, weak domestic demand, and deflationary pressures (June 2024 CPI: 0.2% YoY). Reduced economic activity in China—the world’s second-largest economy—could dampen global trade volumes and commodity prices, indirectly affecting risk sentiment in financial markets. 1.2 Global Spillover Effects The UBS analysis highlights that retaliatory measures by China or other nations could amplify trade fragmentation, further destabilizing supply chains and corporate earnings. For example, the April 2025 announcement of 25% U.S. tariffs on automotive imports triggered a 2.9% drop in the S&P 500 and a 5–7% decline in major Asian equity indices. Such volatility often precedes broader risk aversion, as investors reassess exposure to growth-dependent assets. 2. Risk Aversion Dynamics in Cryptocurrency Markets 2.1 Flight to Safety and USD Appreciation During periods of economic uncertainty, capital typically flows into safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries and the dollar. Tether (USDT), a stable coin pegged 1:1 to the USD, often benefits from this dynamic as crypto traders seek stability. For instance, Bitcoin’s role as a “weak safe haven” for the USD in acute crises suggests that stable coins like USDT could see increased demand during tariff-induced turmoil, while altcoins like XRP face selling pressure. 2.2 XRP’s Sensitivity to Risk Sentiment XRP, unlike Bitcoin, lacks established safe-haven credentials. Its price action in Q2 2025 exemplifies this vulnerability: a 7.5% decline over 30 days (peaking at 2.57 USDT on March 19 and bottoming at 1.64 USDT on April 7). This volatility aligns with broader patterns where altcoins underperform during risk-off periods. A global slowdown would likely intensify this trend, as retail and institutional investors reduce exposure to speculative crypto assets. 3. Mechanism: From Tariffs to XRP/USDT Price Decline 3.1 Investor Behavior in Risk-Off Environments Tariff Announcements → Equity Market Sell-Off: The April 2025 auto tariffs caused a 6–7% drop in Asian equities, signaling growing risk aversion. Liquidity Reallocation: Investors exit equities and crypto (including XRP) to hold cash or cash equivalents like USDT. USD/USDT Demand Surge: Increased demand for USD lifts USDT’s relative value, pressuring XRP/USDT downward. 3.2 Technical and Fundamental Pressure on XRP Supply-Demand Imbalance: As sellers dominate XRP markets, the token’s price in USDT terms declines. The 14.56% 90-day volatility in XRP/USDT suggests heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic shocks. Liquidity Crunch: A broader crypto market downturn could reduce trading volumes, exacerbating price swings. 4. Historical Precedents and Limitations 4.1 Bitcoin’s Mixed Performance as a Hedge While Bitcoin has shown limited safe-haven properties for the USD in short-term crises, its decoupling from altcoins like XRP during stress periods is well-documented. For example, Bitcoin’s 40% rebound post-COVID crash contrasted with XRP’s prolonged slump in 2020–2021. 4.2 Mitigating Factors Stimulus Measures: If China implements aggressive fiscal stimulus, as UBS posits, a partial recovery in risk appetite could cushion XRP’s decline. Crypto-Specific Catalysts: Regulatory clarity or Ripple-related developments (e.g., SEC case resolutions) could counteract macro-driven selling. 5. Conclusion: Bearish Outlook for XRP/USDT in Tariff Scenario In a tariff-driven slowdown, the XRP/USDT pair faces downward pressure due to: Risk Aversion: Capital rotation from crypto to stable coins. USD Strength: USDT demand surges as a proxy for dollar safety. Altcoin Underperformance: Historical precedent of XRP lagging during macro stress. People interested should monitor China’s policy response and U.S. tariff implementation timelines, as these factors will determine the severity of XRP/USDT’s downside. A breach below the April 7 low of 1.64 USDT could signal prolonged bearish momentum. This analysis synthesizes macroeconomic triggers, market psychology, and cryptocurrency-specific dynamics to outline a plausible pathway for XRP/USDT depreciation amid escalating trade tensions. Not An Investment Advise
Short
by REUBEN_EUSTACE
4