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Highprobability

[Tips] High-Probability Trade with Fibonacci Retracement How To Use Fibonacci Retracement to find High-Probability Trade Setup Brief Definition: Fibonacci retracement is a very popular tool among technical traders and is based on the key numbers identified by mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci in the thirteenth century. In technical analysis, Fibonacci retracement is created by taking two extreme points (usually a major High and Low) on a chart and dividing the vertical distance by the key Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 78.6%, and 100%. Once these levels are identified, horizontal lines are drawn and used to identify possible support and resistance levels. These ratios seem to play an important role in the financial market and can be used to determine critical points that cause price to reverse. The direction of the prior trend is likely to continue once the price has retraced to one of the ratios listed above. Tips for Effective Setup: 1. Analyze the general overview (big picture) of price movement to the current trend. In the above example, blue vertical line divides chart into 2 section, Downtrend on the left and Uptrend on the right. We can use MA200 to identify the overall trend. 2. Look at the price movement carefully and then draw Fibo Ret from the extreme pivot points. For Downtrend, drag 100% level from previous High to 0% level at the newly formed Low. For Uptrend, drag 100% level from previous Low to 0% level at the newly formed High. 3. Pay attention to the price movement to the opposite direction of the general trend. Wait for any price rejection to the same direction with the general trend at one of the Fibo Ret level. Entry zone which quite popular are 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8% level. 4. Probability of success will increased if price rejection occurs at the confluence of Support and Resistance levels. ie. confluence of one Fibo Ret level with Support / Resistance area, Trendline, or Chart Pattern. The point is, more confluences are taking places, probability of success for price rejection at Fibo Ret level is higher. Few Examples: Example 1 - 3 for Downtrend case (MA200 sloping down) Example 4 - 5 for Uptrend case (MA200 sloping up) 1. (Normal Retracement) Price reversed to the opposite direction of the trend and rejected down from around Fibo Ret 50%. The downtrend continuation after price rejection tend to be normal and not too deep. 2. (Higher Probability Retracement) Price reversed to the opposite direction of the trend and rejected down from the confluence of 2 resistance: Fibo Ret 23.6% and Resistance Area 110.648-110.771. The downtrend continuation after price rejection tend to be quite deep. 3. (Highest Probability Retracement) Price reversed to the opposite direction of the trend and rejected down from the confluence of 3 resistance: Fibo Ret 61.8%, Major Down Trendline (diagonal red line), and Resistance Area 110.275-110.346. The downtrend continuation after price rejection tend to be very deep. 4. (Higher Probability Retracement) Price reversed to the opposite direction of the trend and rejected up from the confluence of 2 support: Fibo Ret 38.2% and Support Area 110.648-110.771. The uptrend continuation after price rejection tend to be quite high. 5. (Normal Retracement) Price reversed to the opposite direction of the trend and rejected up from around Fibo Ret 61.8%. The uptrend continuation after price rejection tend to be normal and not too high. Happy Trading...
Education
by arieg1985
1
Couple of scenarios for next weekI don´t like waiting until the market provides me with a 100% copy of the perfect backtested super precise entry set up. Trading is not like fast food chain restaurant food, yu cannot always expect the same thing. While there is nothing new under the sun, price action and techncial reading of this price movement is more or less accurate. The more languages you understand the better your understanding of the overall human culture. If this makes sense?
by LorbeerInv
Advanced Pattern & Elliot Wave confluence +300 Pips OpportunityNice high probability , multi argument short opportunity on the daily. In line with a short trade on EUR/GBP that I opened yesterday. Euro showed some strength since the first round of the #frenchelections2017 and the US dollar surely suffered after the #Trumpleaks. These fundamental facts pushed the EUR/USD with some significant momentum into an interesting resistance area. A combination of a completed 5 wave Elliot move + BatPattern + RSI overbought. Target on the 38.2% retracement should provide more or less 300 pips. If price comes back and double tops at entry a second chance is provided to target another 300 pips. Those brave traders who are willing to sell into strength may receive some significant return if this strategy pays off. BatPattern, especially on EUR/USD have a high rate of success but remember, no trade is a sure game!
Short
by LorbeerInv
USDJPY short trendline + key level rejectionIn history there is a strong move down, but this retracement is not strong enough at the moment. Looking for 2 possible setups: 1. Strong momentum up towards the trendline , good healthy rejection and break of the countertrend. 2. Strong momentum up towards the 110.05 level, which is a strong psychological level too. Want to see healthy rejection there and break the countertrend. Option 2 would be the strongest setup Will update this idea when one of those setups are formed
Short
by VAST-Charts
JAZZ Long-term Trend ContinuationStrong channel downtrend since Aug 2015, with RSI overbought at ideal short entry levels (small green squares). RSI at overbought level again; signal to short in this case with harmonic period of about 6 months. Also current small double top at about $130 mark (short orange); stock expected to close gap to about $118 for initial target short-term target. That same level may be difficult to break; level is previous significant support level, so price may consolidate around $118 before breakdown to ideal target (large green rectangle). Initial Target @ $118 Ideal Target @ 95-85 Stock has a lot of room to fall so it can break $85 when it gets there; needs time to work. High profit potential play.
NASDAQ:JAZZShort
by AtoHoward