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Inflation

Yen edges lower after BoJ's Ueda testimonyThe Japanese yen is slightly weaker on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading just above the 135 line. Incoming Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda appeared at a parliamentary hearing on Friday and the markets were all ears. The buzz-word from Ueda was 'continuity', which really wasn't a surprise. Ueda has already said that the current policy is appropriate and he maintained this stance at the hearing. Ueda said that ultra-low rates are needed while the economy is fragile and ruled out fighting inflation by tightening policy. With inflation running at 4%, above the BoJ's target of 2%, there is pressure on Ueda to abandon or at least adjust the Bank's yield control policy (YCC), which is being criticised for distorting market functions. Ueda treated this hot potato with caution. He acknowledged that the YCC had caused side effects but said that the BoJ should evaluate whether recent steps such as widening the band around the yield target would ease these problems. The takeaway from Ueda's testimony is that he is in no hurry to shift central bank policy. Still, there is strong pressure on Ueda to address YCC, which is damaging the bond markets. Investors should not discount the possibility that Governor Kuroda could widen the target yield band at the March meeting in order to relieve pressure on Ueda. If Kuroda doesn't act, the bond markets could respond with massive selling before Ueda takes the helm of the BoJ in April. The inflation pressures facing the BOJ were underscored by National Core CPI for January, which rose from 4.0% to 4.2%. This was just shy of the 4.3% estimate, but still the highest reading since 1981. The BoJ has insisted that inflation is temporary (remember that line from the ECB and the Fed?), and is hoping that the government's massive stimulus package, which includes subsidies for electricity, will help bring down inflation. USD/JPY is testing resistance at 134.85. Above, there is resistance at 135.75 1.3350 and 131.90 are providing support
by OANDA
Bitcoin Stops at resistance as USD Turns Higher For Correction Cryptocurrencies slowed down recently as USD index turns higher for a correction because of inflation concerns. We see USD index in a temporary recovery, means that at some point we will expect more weakness as we think that major top for the dollar has been put in place in 2022. However, there cna be some short-term pullbacks on BTCUSD and DASH as I will look in this video, but think there will be long opportunities on dips. Have a nice weekend. Grega
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ew-forecast
9
Long Term DXY and inflation - Where is the Future for the $This chart shows DXY since 2008, when it began its current Long term trend in an ascending channel, with various events helping it along, Most recently, the War in Ukraine. The Indicator at the base of the chart is US inflation ticker and it goes RED when inflation is over the 2% mark, as suggested by FOMC way back in the 1990's As we can see, PA has once again bounced off the 0.5 Fib retracement lines as it did last time ( Arrowed) On that occasion it took 2 months to rise 3.9%, which, on this occasion, it has already nearly managed to do, possibly because the FED has already stated that Rate Will continue to rise. We also have the FOMC meeting Minutes released to day that will no doubt help it along. The world is a different place from when we were last in this "pattern" and more countries are pulling Away from the use of the $ as an international currency, possibly the biggest blow to the $ Is that OPEC is moving away and replacing the Petro$, which had contractual obligation to also invest in US Stocks and Bonds. China, Iran and Russia are also amoung a number of countries moving away from using the $ as an international settlement currency This will cost the USA a LOT and will ultimetly devalue the $ Chances are that longer Term, the DXY may fall out of this ascending channel. Will it descend to the March 2008 All Time LOW of $0.7 ? Who knows but the USA Needs to pull a trick out the bag to sustain this level of growth Sadly, WAR is an option for the Worlds Largest weapons producer but that will only be a temporary solution INDUSTRY and TECHNOLOGY is the Future for the USA and that should include CRYPTO. But, because the USA IS a Bank, THE Leading Traditional Finance Market, it is fighting it and NOT adopting it. Could the American $ Empire be the shortest lived empire ever ?
TVC:DXY
by Orriginal
2
Aussie dips after soft wage dataThe Australian dollar has extended its losses on Wednesday. In North American trade, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6824, down 0.47%. Australian wage growth was short of the forecast, with a gain of 0.8% q/q in Q4 2020. This was down from 1.1% in Q3 and below the forecast of 1.0%. Annual wage growth rose to 3.3%, up from 3.2% but below the estimate of 3.5%. This will be welcome news to the RBA, which is concerned that high inflation could lead to a price-wage spiral that would entrench inflation expectations and complicate efforts to curb inflation. The RBA has hiked interest rates by 325 basis points in the current cycle but the battle against inflation rages on. Inflation rose to 7.8% in Q4 2022, its highest level since March 1990. The central bank's steep tightening is yet to curb inflation, and Lowe faced criticism of his rate policy when he appeared before a parliamentary committee last week. Lowe told the lawmakers that high inflation was "dangerous" and reiterated that future rate moves would be data-driven. The cash rate is currently at 3.35% and the markets have priced a peak rate of 4.1%. The RBA has signalled that more rate hikes are coming and we're likely to see a 25-basis point hike for a fifth straight time at the March meeting, barring some unexpected data. All eyes are on the Federal Reserve, which will release the minutes of its February meeting later on Wednesday. The Fed raised rates by 25 bp, but investors will be interested in the extent of support for a 50-bp hike at the meeting as a clue what to expect from the March 22 meeting. It was only a few weeks ago that the markets were confident that the March meeting would provide a 'one and done' rate increase and the Fed would cut rates late in the year. The blowout employment report, a strong retail sales release and higher-than-expected inflation have changed that narrative. The markets have moved closer to the Fed's hawkish stance, and Goldman Sachs and the Bank of America are projecting three more rate hikes in 2023. AUD/USD has support at 0.6784 and 0.6690 There is resistance at 0.6907 and 0.7001
by OANDA
NZD/USD eyes central bank meetingThe New Zealand dollar is slightly lower on Tuesday. NZD/USD declined over 0.50% earlier but has pared most of these losses and is trading at 0.6240, down 0.20%. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will meet on Wednesday, its first policy meeting this year. The Bank last met in November, at which time it hiked rates by a record 75 basis points, bringing the cash rate to 4.25%. There had been expectations of another 75-bp increase at tomorrow's meeting, but Cyclone Gabrielle has thrown a monkey wrench into the decision. The cyclone, which caused damage in the billions of dollars, has raised concerns about the economy and the RBNZ is widely expected to lower gears and deliver a 50-bp increase. In the short term, the major disruptions from the cyclone are projected to raise inflation, which is already running at 7.2%, its highest level since 1990. Aside from Gabrielle, there are signs that inflation may have peaked. Inflation Expectations eased in Q1 to 3.3%, down from 3.6% in Q4 2022. Inflation hit 7.2% in the final quarter of 2022, lower than the RBNZ's forecast of 7.5%. The RBNZ still has its foot on the brake, but if inflation continues to head lower, we can expect the Bank to ease up on the pace of rates in the coming meetings. In the US, we'll get a look at the February PMI reports. Recent US numbers have beaten expectations, including employment growth, retail sales, and inflation. This is not a complete picture of the economy, as the services and manufacturing sectors have been in contraction territory for months, with readings below the 50.0 level. This negative trend is expected to continue, with Manufacturing PMI expected at 47.3 and Services PMI at 47.2 points. There is resistance at 0.6275 and 0.6357 0.6162 and 0.6080 are providing support
by OANDA
Euro drifting, markets eye PMIsThe euro showed some volatility at the start of last week but since then it has been in calm waters and has stayed close to the 1.0.7 line. We'll get a look at eurozone and German PMIs on Tuesday. The ECB has been criticized for sending mixed messages to the markets, but Christine Lagarde was crystal clear last week when she told EU lawmakers that “in view of the underlying inflation pressures we intend to raise interest rates by another 50 basis points at our next meeting in March”. Lagarde said the ECB would then evaluate future moves, but with inflation still high, the risks for further rate hikes are skewed to the upside. The ECB's primary focus is to tame inflation. Headline inflation fell to 8.5% in January, down from 9.2% in December, but is still unacceptably high. Core CPI has been stickier than expected and wage increases are stemming the drop in inflation. ECB member Isabel Shnabel said last that investors risk underestimating inflation, a warning that the Fed has also made to the markets that have consistently been more dovish about rate policy than the Fed. Schnabel noted that the disinflation process has not started in the eurozone, another signal that the central bank will remain in a hawkish mode for the near future. Fed members continue to pound out the message that inflation remains too high and more rate hikes are needed. Investors are clearly concerned that the Fed will make good on these statements, which has sent risk sentiment lower and the US dollar higher. The markets had high hopes that the March rate increase would be a 'one and done', but it looks like the Fed will continue raising rates into the second quarter. According to CME's FedWatch, the markets have priced in an 83% of a 25-bp hike and a 17% of a 50-bp increase. EUR/USD is testing resistance at 1.0704. Above, there is resistance at 1.0795 1.0604 and 1.0513 are the next support lines
by OANDA
SPX: Watch These Stocks to CASH IN on EGGS 🥚Hi Traders, Investors and Speculators of the Charts 📈📉 The SPX Chart is looking bullish as we see another very clear pattern form - the higher lows. Previously, this has been a sign that we can expect more upside movement from the stock market. But not all stocks are equal during this time... Have you bought some eggs recently? Forget high gas prices. If you've tried to buy eggs lately, you've paid up or done without. But some investors are finding a way to cash in. Shares of one of the largest publicly traded egg producers, Cal-Maine (CALM) is up 39% in past 12 months. That's impressive as while the S&P 500 was down more than 7% during that time. Egg prices are on fire — even more so than oil. The price of a dozen grade-A eggs was $4.25 nationally in December 2022, says the Bureau of Labor Statistics, up 138% from the same period a year ago. In some places, like California, eggs sell for even more. Egg prices are becoming the new face for runaway inflation. Millions of hens died last year in an outbreak of disease. That sharply cut the supply of eggs. Cal-Maine is even considered a meme stock now, landing in the Roundhill Meme ETF (MEME). The avian flu's effect on supply will ease, analysts say. But investors who look closely will see that corporate profits at egg companies are booming, too. And that's not seen easing anytime soon. "Energy prices fell 4.5% in December on a 9.4% decline in gasoline prices. Food prices rose 0.3%, with food at home up 0.2% and food away from home up 0.4%, " said Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank. "Egg prices rose 11.1% on the month, pushed higher by an avian flu outbreak that has hurt supply." So when you're ready to cough up the big bucks to buy eggs, at least know there's a way to profit, too. HEY👀 Interested in Bitcoin? Here's my take for the SHORT TERM : _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
SP:SPXLong
by CryptoCheck-
35
Nasdaq, massive distribution? Nasdaq have been in sideway for the first half of Feb 2023 During this period we have 1) FOMC meeting 2) CPI data 3) PPI Data 4) Unemployment Data 5) Retails During the FOMC on the 1st of Feb 2023, Powell was confident of a soft landing. He mentioned the word "disinflation" approximately 20 times. He gave the green light for the market to rally by stating he does not think the financial conditions have eased since Dec 2022's FOMC. The market rejoiced and rallied.... for one day and then proceed to go sideways for the next 2 weeks. During these 2 weeks, all economic data show signs that there was no sign of disinflation. MoM CPI was revised higher for Dec 2022 from negative 0.1% to positive 0.1% Jan 2023's MoM CPI went back up by 0.5% YoY PPI went was 6% compared to the consensus of 5.4% MOM PPI went up by 0.7% instead of the consensus 0.4% (HOLY SHIT!!! F ME! IT IS almost doubled the consensus) Unemployment went down to 3.4%, the lowest since 1969 (low unemployment equates to higher consumer spending equates to higher inflation) MoM Retail sales went up 3% instead of the consensus 1.8& (HOLY SHIT!!) If the critical support is broken, we have a long way down. Much like inflation in 2021, maybe this "disinflation" is also transitory
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by NimbusCapital
EUR/USD at 3-week low after strong US dataThe euro is down for a third straight day and fell earlier to 1.0629, its lowest level since Jan. 23. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0639, down 0.30%. The US dollar is showing some strength this week against the majors, as US data continues to shine. Retail sales impressed with a 3% gain earlier this week, and PPI and unemployment claims were both better than expected. Is the disinflation process stalled? The markets didn't expect such good numbers, but the economy has proved to be surprisingly resilient to rising interest rates. The Fed has been preaching 'higher for longer' for some time, but the markets stuck to their dovish stance, expecting that the Fed would have to pivot and even cut rates later in the year. The host of strong US numbers has forced investors to recalibrate, and the markets have revised upwards their peak rate forecast to above 5%. The US dollar has been the big winner of the shift in market thinking, and US Treasury yields are at their highest level this year. Fed member Mester said she saw a strong case for raising rates by 50 basis points at the last Fed meeting, a sign that the Fed could move away from the moderate 25-bp hikes if inflation isn't falling quickly enough. Mester said that she didn't see inflation falling to 2% until 2025, which points to a long disinflation process. The ECB raised rates by 50 basis points in February and has signalled that it will do the same at the Mar. 16 meeting. The main financing rate is currently at 3%, well below the Fed (4.5%) and other major central banks. It's not clear what the Bank has planned after the first quarter, but with inflation running at 8.5%, the risk for further rate hikes is skewed to the upside. The ECB has made it clear that rates will remain high until there is evidence that inflation is falling toward the target, which means that the current rate-tightening cycle isn't anywhere near its end. EUR/USD is testing support at 1.0629. Below, there is support at 1.0581 1.0762 and 1.0847 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
1
GBP/USD steadies, eyes UK retail salesThe British pound has steadied on Thursday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2053, up 0.25%. This follows a sharp drop of 1.2% a day earlier. UK inflation continues to fall but remains disturbingly high. Headline inflation fell to 10.1% in January, down from 10.5% in December and below the consensus of 10.3%. The drop in inflation is welcome news, but food prices, a key driver of inflation, surged by 16.8% in January. With inflation still in double digits, the Bank of England will have to continue raising rates, with the most likely scenario being a 25-basis increase at the Mar. 22 meeting. The market probability of a 25-bp hike rose as high as 73% on Wednesday before dipping to 66% today, according to Refinitiv data. In the US, retail sales delivered an impressive gain of 3% in January, above the estimate of 1.8%. This was a strong rebound from the December reading of -1.1% and marked the largest gain since January 2022. This positive release follows the January inflation report that ticked lower to 6.4% but was higher than expected. These strong numbers translated into strong gains for the US dollar on Wednesday, as the Fed will likely raise rates even higher in order to put the brakes on the strong economy. The UK wraps up the week with retail sales on Friday. The markets are braced for bad news, with an estimate of -5.5% y/y for the headline figure (-5.8% prior) and -5.3% for the core rate (-6.1%). A weak retail sales report could sour investors on the pound and send the currency lower. GBP/USD tested resistance at 1.2071 earlier in the day. The next resistance line is 1.2180 1.1958 and 1.1838 are providing support
by OANDA
UK Inflation drop to 5 month low at 10.10% - Still crazy high!The UK inflation rate has dropped to a 5-month low of 10.1%. This tells us that the peak inflation may be behind us. The decrease in transport costs, as well as restaurants and hotels, were the main drivers of the lower inflation rate. However, if we compare it to other developed nations like the US, France, and Germany - the UK's inflation rate is still quite a bit higher. Now we need to see the Bank of England (BoE) to keep taking action to drop the inflation and interest rates. I mean an inflation rate of 10% or higher is still crazy!
ECONOMICS:GBIRYYShort
by Timonrosso
US100 Price Breakout with Strong Support, But All Eyes on CPIThe US100, also known as the Nasdaq 100 index, has been making some significant moves recently that are worth keeping an eye on for traders. Specifically, there have been a few key levels that have been broken which are often seen as indicators of price momentum and potential future price movements. One of these key levels is the 4-hour trendline. Trendlines are often used to help identify potential areas of support or resistance for a given security or index. When prices break above or below a trendline, it can signal a potential shift in price momentum. In this case, the US100 broke above a key 4-hour trendline, which is a bullish signal that suggests prices may continue to rise in the short term. In addition to the trendline, the US100 also recently broke through a strong resistance zone. Resistance zones are areas where prices have struggled to break through in the past. When prices do finally break through a resistance zone, it can suggest a shift in market sentiment and a potential increase in buying pressure. In this case, the US100 broke through a key resistance zone and then retested that area as support, which is another bullish signal for traders. However, despite these bullish signals on the charts, there is an important upcoming event that may have a significant impact on future price movements for the US100. This event is the release of US CPI (Consumer Price Index) data, which is scheduled for 5:30am PST. CPI is a measure of inflation, which is one of the most important factors that the US Federal Reserve takes into account when making decisions about interest rates and monetary policy. Inflation that is too high can be a sign of an overheating economy, which can lead to increased borrowing costs and reduced economic growth. Therefore, the Fed is constantly monitoring inflation levels and using policy tools to try to keep inflation within a certain range. The upcoming CPI release is expected to be a major market-moving event for the US100, as well as for other markets such as currencies and bonds. If the CPI data comes in below expectations (a "miss"), this may suggest that inflation is not as much of a concern as previously thought, which could lead to increased buying pressure for the US100. On the other hand, if the CPI data comes in above expectations (a "beat"), this may suggest that inflation is a bigger concern than previously thought, which could lead to increased selling pressure for the US100. In either case, it is important to note that the Fed's next moves will likely be shaped by the CPI data. If inflation continues to be a concern, the Fed may take steps to raise interest rates or reduce asset purchases in order to try to curb inflation. This could have a significant impact on the US100 and other markets in the short and long term. In summary, while the US100 has recently shown some bullish signals on the charts, traders should be cautious and pay close attention to the upcoming CPI release. The data from this release is likely to shape the Fed's next moves and could have a significant impact on future price movements for the US100 and other markets.
U
by natron
2
Dollar Doing a Double CheckTraders, The Dollar really wants to make sure that its resistance overhead is legit. From a technical perspective, I love this! Should the dollar remain below my macro uptrend line, it will be all bulls for the next few weeks/months in the U.S. stock markets. The dollar should continue its sideways/down movement during the same interim. If the VIX is any indicator, then my thesis appears to remain intact. Watch closely. Blow off top should peak by mid/late summer or early fall. Best, Stew
TVC:DXYShort
by stewdamus
1
US CPI Data Release PreparationTraders Watch Out! The DXY is likely to see significant volatility with the US CPI for January due today (9:30pm GMT+8), with the current forecast expecting data to be released at 6.2% (Previous: 6.5%). A slowdown of inflation growth could reinforce the Fed's view of disinflation and could lead to the DXY trading significantly lower. This is because investors would increase on bets that the Federal Reserve would be less likely to continue with its hawkish comments and over-the-top interest rate hikes. With the DXY currently trading along the 103.20 price level, weakness in the DXY could see the price slide lower toward the key support level of 102.650. However, before the retest of the 102.65 price level, the price would have to first break through the round number support of 103. However, it would be foolish to rule out the possibility that the data surprises markets, with a higher-than-expected release. (Considering that energy prices traded higher in January) Trade with Caution
TVC:DXYShort
by JinDao_Tai
1
Elliott Wave Science Meets the Consumer Price IndexIt would be awesome if TradingView offered a candlestick chart for CPI but considering its only updated once per month, maybe the line graph/chart is the best option (not sure how that works). As for the data available to me, I've done a best effort markup using the science of Elliott Wave Theory. Considering the fluctuations seen on the M(onthly) chart, I believe its possible that CPI is sitting in the midst of a shallow Wave 4 correction. With this in mind, I find it possible that the number stretches into the low-mid 7.xx range between now and March. From there we may see a 2023 low within the 4.xx level. I will share my thoughts here as I know there is much interest in "what will the CPI numbers be?"... Being that this CPI data is directly based on the actions of humans and the habits that we act on, it should work pretty well with Elliott Wave Theory. I will keep this post fluid and apply analytical updates as monthly results are publicly announced. Remember these three important things: 1) trade the chart instead of the news and 2) stay safe /3) don't drown!
ECONOMICS:USCCPI
by DigitalSurfTrading
Plan for XAUUSD with CPI AnnouncementOANDA:XAUUSD Gold has been trading in the range since last Friday (10th February 2023). It is clear that speculators and investors are waiting for something: maybe some economic indicators like CPI will decide the movement of Gold by today (14th February 2023) Within the 1H timeframe, It is clear that gold has a strong chance of continuing its downtrend if it breaks below the trading range of 1850-1865 with the the following key support levels: 1st Support at: 1835 2nd Support at: 1825 Key Support at: 1800 On the contrary in a bigger picture of Day timeframe, Gold can still push for another leg upward as the price action has slowed the downward movement. If CPI number comes out in favor of Gold then it has a chance of testing the following key resistance when it breaks the range between 1850-1865 upward: 1st Resistance at: 1880 2nd Resistance at: 1885 Key Resistance at: 1900 The most importance part of all; Place a trade where the Risk to Reward favors in the direction that you choose!!!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ChartTrail