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Leverage

two paths for nasdaq futures (TQQQ)in reality the tech boom is to blame for this correction. if we werent in such business with the market weight we are currently there wouldnt be a need for the drawdown in buying that we are. this could obviously co tinue, but my bias is still long after the current contraction and retracement. divergence from vwma, rsi and qqe signals strategies are long, and i have to say that the weekend looks promising as long as we stay away from negative headlines. the conflict is mostly priced in and xlv, xle, xli, utsl having a good day in relation to the rest of the market moving down shows healthy rotation, and does not spell a crash. defensive sector stock will accumulate and prices in tech will move up.
NASDAQ:TQQQLong
by cerealcharts
What are the Leveraged Longs doing in Bitcoin?One of the most interesting things to develop in Bitcoin last year during the summer dip to 30k was that leveraged long positions inexplicably rose as price consolidated. Under normal conditions traders tend to chase returns and increase leverage as the price rises. This was typical of the first half of 2021 as Bitcoin pushed to higher highs. It would follow that on the May 2021 dip leveraged longs would be liquidated, sentiment would become less risk on, and leveraged longs would decrease. The opposite happened. Leverage increased and continued increasing through the dip and further into the consolidation. At the end of the consolidation when price rallied the leverage began to evaporate away suggesting it was being closed out. At the time this was happening last summer I saw a major structural weakness in the price of Bitcoin if price broke 30k as it would jeopardize the leveraged longs being liquidated into a major crash. I gave a talk at a local Bitcoin meetup titled "Do they get to win?" insinuating that this was a risky move that could end badly. Turns out, they did get to win. In hindsight I have a new take on the event. The leverage was coming into the market to support the price and keep it from falling further. Now, when I revisit this indicator I see that leverage is once again increasing rapidly into a falling price. It is not just "buying the dip" but in my mind "supporting the dip not going further." Do they get to win again?
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by norok
4
Guaranteed money (UVXY)If we break to new highs it's almost a guarantee that, provided we are hitting new lows in multiple important sectors like tickers xlf, qqq, spy, we take this over 19. The only real guarantee is that whatever high we hit in UVXY we are seeing lower prices soon. low 14s is where I'm drawing these hypothetical puts expiring a me to.e early March. This is based on the simple fact that indices didn't hold their lows, and there are really two scenarios that can play out: we set some lower low as support and bounce, or we continue lower. If we go lower there's really no support. If we bounce there's really very little resistance. Low availability of shares means we're not headed sideways. This is the bullish picture for uvxy: This is the bearish picture: The forecasts show my limits of how far I would long or short based on a bull/bear move from current levels. The ghost feed is just one solution to how they could both hit. If you get the right signals UVXY is guaranteed money.
CBOE:UVXY
by cerealtrades
consecutive forecast for weeks ahead (TQQQ)i think we will see a lower high, followed by a lower low, but we will stay over the .382, and then continue higher every period of volatility that dried up quickly or was extenuating in nature was v shaped, and every period that was more exaggerated or corrective in nature was cypher shaped. we could bull cypher with a touch of support, but if we break it things will get much more serious quite quickly. if we break the 0 of extension the picture will clear up greatly for nasdaq bulls. sundays session should be bullish continuation, and we should open higher monday and then begin the flush to new lows middle of the week of the 6th, unless we immediately continue higher over 59
NASDAQ:TQQQ
by cerealtrades
failing double top or continuation (UVXY)if we fail the double top, and break 18.34 confirming a downtrend with a lower high, or immediately continue bear vix, im fine with selling volatility here. if we immediately continue over 19.17, or we set a higher low over the .382 of the bounce and break the high i would stay long vix for the time being if multiple sectors are continuing to make new lows simultaneously. vix looks like such a tempting bull trend on many larger timeframes. the weekly is shaping up to be a great reversal from lows, but indices also look equally extended though to the downside.
CBOE:UVXY
by cerealtrades
we should see a bounce some time in the following week (SPXL)i really want to stress that i am not saying the daily/weekly trend is going to change right back to bull. with that said, i think there is money to be made long over the next week, as long as futures sunday dont have the craziest bear session since corona. some shorts are going to cover on the next drop, and this is going to cause a small squeeze. i dont think all time highs are in the cards yet for broader market bulls. i do think 106 and 119 are reasonable targets. rsi is diverging bullishly, and dipping into the high teens would signal oversold conditions. i realize this differs from my SPY forecast. that is a long term forecast on an unleveraged asset. i am using different strategies for different instruments. qqe long entry signal should be due soon, although there have already been 3 signals that only led to small bounces, and not a return to a bull trend since the top.
AMEX:SPXL
by cerealtrades