NQ KEY LEVELS - 22nd APRIL 2025Key levels marked by using low volume nodes for potential key levels where we may see price react.
Nq!
Plan Your Trade Update For 4-21 : Waiting For The EPP SetupThis video is, hopefully, going to help many of you learn to use the Excess Phase Peak (EPP) pattern more efficiently.
For months, I've been trying to teach all of you to use this pattern to efficiently identify and trade some of the biggest price moves.
Remember, price only does TWO THINGS - TREND or FLAG.
These components are essential to the EPP pattern setup.
First, price must TREND into a peak or trough.
Second, price must pullback from the peak or trough.
Third, price must move into a SIDEWAYS/FLAGGING formation.
Forth, price must break away from the sideways/flagging formation and attempt to TREND into the new consolidation phase.
Fifth, once the new consolidation phase starts, price will trend and flag within the consolidation range for a period of time - before...
Sixth, price will attempt to break up or down to the Ultimate High/Low.
This chart of the ES/SPY will show you how I used my analysis to "front-load" my positions before the Easter holiday weekend.
I've been telling all of you the markets would likely attempt to move a little bit higher, trying to target 525-535 (if we are lucky). Then, price would roll into a topping formation and move downward towards my May 3-6th low (estimate).
Last Thursday, I decided to throw on two positions to protect against any big news that may cause the markets to collapse over the holiday weekend.
I picked up :
4 SDS CALL options @ $23 expiring on May 16
3 XLF PUT options @ $47 expiring on May 16
Both of those trades worked out perfectly this morning. I booked 2 of the XLF and 2 of the SDS for profits near 1030 AM PT. Lovely.
Next, in between phone calls and loading up my car for a short trip, I noticed a beautiful EPP pattern setting up in the ES, and that EPP pattern has already reached what I believe to be the Ultimate Low.
I tried to get into 2 SPY Call options @ $512 and held my breath to see if I timed the entry well.
NOT.
I took a $280+ loss on those two Calls.
I waited a bit longer to see what price did, and after the price setup a base below $510 on the SPY, I loaded up on two more SPY Calls @ $510 and two SSO calls @ $67 about 70-80 minutes before the end of trading.
The way I looked at it, I already had my downside trades placed from last Thursday, and I just added some upside exposure while my downside trades were profitable.
I didn't know if the SPY would rally or not, but the EPP Ultimate Low setup suggested NOW is the time to buy.
So, I kept both downside and upside trades active to protect my account overnight.
The SPY rallied into the close, and I ended up making some nice profits off that EPP Ultimate Low.
Now, I'm going to wait to see what happens tomorrow morning and try to BOOK my upside trades in profits while letting my longer-term downside trades play out into early/mid May.
This is trading. The entire purpose of trading, like I trade, is to position for the best opportunities and try to catch the GIFTS the market throws at you as often as possible.
Nothing is guaranteed, but price ultimately shows us everything we need to know.
Watch this video to see if you understand the EPP Ultimate Low that prompted me to buy my CALLS today.
If so, then you are starting to GET IT, and that is a very big step towards improving your trading skills.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
MNQ Outlook 4-21-25Toying around with posting publicly welcome back folks.
MNQ still is yet to pick a direction following the big run on wednesday 2 weeks ago. long term I think path of least resistance is for price to continue to chase sellside liquidity. However that high that was put in on that wednesday may be cleared out first.
In any case my trade bias is always day by day and what is offered to me during my trading window.
Please note this is not investment advice.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-21 : Inside Breakaway PatternToday's Inside Breakaway pattern may not show up as I would expect.
An Inside Breakaway pattern suggests the OPEN will be within the Body range of the previous bar - I don't see that happening today.
The Breakaway portion of the pattern is much more likely to happen today with Gold/Silver moving much higher and BTCUSD moving slightly higher today. It appears Safe-Haven assets are THE THING right now.
That would suggest the US Dollar and US-Dollar based assed would continue to fall (move downward) as devaluation and contraction in the global economy continues to play out.
If you watched my video (posted late last night), you already know my data suggests there is almost no reason for the markets to mount a rally right now. The only thing I can see that would drive a big rally from these lows would be some incredible news that the world is immediately going back to somewhat normal in terms of GCB spending and Global Trade. I don't see that happening.
I know there are a lot of emotions related to these Tariff wars and global trade. Heck, almost anything that goes on in the world right now is full of emotions.
I urge all traders to STEP BACK. Think of the markets like an engine that runs on the quality of AIR, FUEL, SPARK, LUBRICATION, STRUCTURAL MECHANICAL PARTS, & INTAKE/OUTPUT CAPACITY.
If you start to think about the markets (global markets) as a big engine, while thinking of individual economies (by country) as smaller engines, it starts to make a little more sense (at least in my mind).
Every country runs its own engine (see the components above). If some of those components are failing, then that country's economy will falter a bit.
And that faltering economy may put additional pressure on the global economy/engine.
It takes a lot to destroy a functional economy. I mean A LOT. War, Total Destruction of government/law/society. Maybe even some type of internal conflict.
But, even then, the economy will still have roots and will fall back to core elements.
So, don't worry about all of these people telling you "the world is going to CRASH in the next 2 years because of Trump". That is highly unlikely.
What is more likely is that the world will "re-settle expectations" related to future growth and output. Strengthening economies where needed and building up the core elements of global trade/economies over many months.
So, if you are worried or don't know what to do right now, move your positions into CASH and wait it out a bit.
There will be lots of opportunities for you to pick the right time to start trading again.
There is no reason why you have to try to FORCE the markets to adhere to your wants (they never do that anyway).
Just wait it out, keep learning, and plan/time your trade efficiently.
Get some...
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
NQ KEY ICT LEVELS - 21st APRIL 2025Levels marked on the chart using my free indicator which marks out all of the ICT key levels which can be used for potential POIs where price might react
NQ KEY LEVELS - 21st APRIL 2025Key levels marked by using low volume nodes for potential key levels where we may see price react.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For The Week Of April 20-25 : CautionI want to thank all of you for the great comments and questions over the past few months.
I'm very impressed by all of you and how well many of you are picking up my techniques to improve your trading results.
This video is more of a Pre-Week review - telling you why I expect the markets to trade/trend a certain way over the next 5 to 25+ days (or longer).
Additionally, I want to remind all of you my research goes much deeper (behind the scenes) than what you see in these Plan Your Trade videos.
I know many of you rely on my morning videos and some of you have messaged me about how important my videos are in helping you prepare for the day's price range/trend.
Ultimately, I started doing these Plan Your Trade videos to highlight my SPY Cycle patterns and to prove my research is accurate and helpful. Obviously, if my technology/techniques were failures, I would be hearing about it from lots of people by now.
But that is not the case. It appears my SPY Cycle Patterns and other techniques/tools are very well appreciated and are really helping traders learn to build better skills for greater success.
And that is what this is all about.
Remember, I've been lucky enough to rub shoulders with some of the greatest traders/minds on the planet for the past 35+ years. Sometimes, we would sit down for Coffee and share ideas. Sometimes, they would hire me to explore something they thought was important (coding/research). At other times, we would simply show up at an event together and chat about life and the markets.
I was lucky.
I got into this industry in the late 1980s (a long time ago) and have continued to learn new things and build my skills over the past 35+ years.
Now, I'm trying to share some of that knowledge with all of you so you can carry this information forward and make a real difference in your life (finding success while trading).
One of the biggest things I continue to try to teach all of you is PATIENCE.
Right now, the markets are in a unique phase (consolidation in a downward trend). You are going to have to learn to WAIT for the best trade setups and try not to force the markets do to what you want.
If you are not sure what to trade, sit on the CASH until you see a better opportunity.
OK. This week, after Easter, should be fairly quiet. Tax day and Easter usually fall fairly close to one another. This year, they were on the same week.
The markets are usually very flat near Tax Day - so don't expect much in terms of trending.
Volatility is still elevated. So, we may see some wild price action this week. Trade smaller amounts if you are still unsure about direction/setups.
Get some...
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
Perfect Range Clear Tradable Levels To Watch!Sometimes you just have to zoom out and look at which levels will produce the highest probability trade. if those levels do not get reached, then we should not trade them.
Lets see if price gets to these levels tomorrow and if so we know how to position ourselves.
Calculate Your Risk/Reward so you don't lose more than 1% of your account per trade.
Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT.
Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below!
This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
Are US Tariffs Similar To The COVID-19 Global DisruptionThis video is in response to a question asked by one of my followers on TradingView.
He specifically asked if the current US Tariffs create a similar situation to the COVID-19 supply disruptions and how it may result in longer-term market disruptions.
In this video, I try to answer these questions and highlight the differences I see related to what is happening now vs. the COVID-19 shutdown.
It is an interesting question.
I certainly see similarities, but I also see vast differences in terms of how the global markets are attempting to address the US tariff issues.
First, the current tariff issues are somewhat self-inflicted, not something like COVID-19 (unavoidable).
Second, the global central banks acted in concert to present immense liquidity to support a global shutdown with COVID. I don't see that happening right now.
Supply-side disruptions are evident, but we'll see how they play out over the next 60- 90+ days.
Longer-term, I hope these tariff issues are resolved before the global economy moves into a deeper recession. I will state that hard assets are likely to take a hit over the next 60-90+ days across the globe.
Any moderate (think 15 to 35%) slowdown in production, shipping, and consumption across the globe is going to be felt all over the planet. It is not going to be isolated to just one or two areas.
This is the smackdown that I don't believe anyone is really ready for. And that creates the urgency to resolve the tariff issues asap.
Hope this helps.
Get Some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Video For 4-17 : Another BLANK dayToday's BLANK pattern in counter-trend mode is nothing to worry about.
As I research and document these patterns, there are patterns that appear frequently on the Daily price chart and there are others that appear more infrequently.
If I have not already marked these patterns and documented them, they have not appeared anywhere in the 11+ years of the Daily price data I use within the Lookup Engine.
Therefore, these are VERY RARE types of patterns - Extremely infrequent.
I will add that the secondary looking criteria show yesterday and today could be similar to "key top/bottom" types of price rotation. So, I do believe the current price level on the SPY (520-535) could prove to be very critical support/resistance going forward.
Tomorrow is Good Friday (no trading). So if you are going to take any trades today, make sure you remember to plan your exits for TODAY or NEXT WEEK (or later). You will not be able to exit stock/ETF trades tomorrow (sorry).
Gold is moving into a Momentum Rally, and I really want to see how that pattern plays out before the long holiday weekend.
Fingers crossed we see a BIG RALLY again today.
BTCUSD is still rolling into a downward price trend based on my EPP pattern structure. This downward trend aligns with my May 2 Major Bottom pattern for the SPY/QQQ. So I would expect BTCUSD to start to roll downward sometime near the middle/end of next week.
Remember, this weekend should be about your family, your friends, and your beliefs.
Relax and enjoy.
Get some...
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver #xauusd
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-15 : BLANK pattern day.As I stated in this video, last night I looked through the data and could not find any reference for this pattern going back more than 11 years. Same thing for tomorrow's pattern.
That means these are very RARE pattern setups and we'll have to watch to see how price action plays out today.
If there were no reference points over 11+ years of Daily price data (more than 2500 Daily Price Bars), then this is something very unique.
I believe today will act like a Reversal Bar. Potentially rallying off a lower opening price and setting up a type of Gap Lower Rally type of pattern - but that is just a guess.
At this point, trade smaller quantities until we see how price reacts this morning.
Gold and Silver make a BIG MOVE overnight - breaking above the $3300/$33 levels I suggested were critical psychological levels.
This is an INCREDIBLE rally in metals (thanks, China).
At this point, if you were long metals like I was, you can thank me all you want.
Be aware that metals will likely pause a bit above this psychological level, then start to move higher again.
The next big target is $3600-$3750 for Gold.
Bitcoin is doing exactly what I stated it would do - rolling into a top as demand for BTCUSD wanes. I believe the next low for BTCUSD will be closer to $60k-$63k. Pay attention.
Going to be a good day for everyone holding Gold/Silver/Miners CALLS (like I kept suggesting).
GOT SOME.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
Daily Price Action: Futures Nasdaq NQ1! Tuesday 4/15/2025In this video, we are looking into the potential daily price action of NQ1!.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-15 : Base Rally PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ have been busy forming a BASE and may transition into a moderate rally mode.
I believe this move will prompt the SPY to move above the $550 level, potentially targeting $555-565 over the next 48 hours.
This upward move could be related to news or Q1:2025 earnings.
I don't believe the markets really want to move downward at this time, although I do believe the markets will move into a topping pattern by the end of this week.
Gold and Silver are moving into BLANK pattern day, today. Given the fact that we are between rally patterns and the metals charts show a very clear FLAGGING formation (watch my video), I believe we are moving into a FLAG APEX that will prompt a move above $3300 (for Gold) and $33 (for Silver). It's just a matter of time.
BTCUSD is still struggling in the Consolidation phase. As I keep suggesting, I believe the next move for Bitcoin is to the downside. But, until we break this consolidation phase, price will continue to roll around within the consolidation range.
Remember, we are going to be moving back to more normal volatility. So you need to understand these huge daily ranges are going to vanish over the next 3-5+ days.
Volatility will likely move back to the 1% to 2.5% range very quickly.
Get some..
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-14 : Up-Down-Up PatternToday's pattern suggests the markets will move in a moderate upward price trend.
Although I don't expect anything huge today, I do believe the EPP structures/layers support this upward price move and that we'll see the SPY attempt to move back towards/above 550 over time.
The QQQ will likely follow the SPY higher over the next 5+ days.
Don't get too excited about this upward price move because it is structurally moving to setup a PEAK that will transition into a downtrend near April 22-25. This peak will create a downward price flag (a new inverted EPP) structure that will assist in developing a new sideways price structure carrying into June/July.
In other words, it looks like we are trapped between 480-585 on the SPY, and we will likely stay within that wide consolidation range for another 2-3 months.
Gold should attempt to rally this week, trying to break above $3300. I believe this is a critical level for Gold and also presents a breakaway level for Silver near $33.00
Bitcoin has moved into APEX VOLATILITY and will continue to trap BUYERS into believing BTCUSD is breaking away from the consolidation range. This is a BULL TRAP.
I believe BTCUSD will ROLL OVER within about 4-5 days - setting up a big breakdown move as the SPY/QQQ also roll downward in about 5+ days.
We still continue to see volatility and sideways price action. Still lots of opportunities for skilled traders.
Get Some..
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Overview For 4-12 : Thank youThis video is mostly a big thank you for all the great comments and questions over the past few weeks.
I've been posting these videos on TradingView for almost a year and the types of viewers/followers I've been gaining is incredible.
You guys & gals have really impressed me with your questions and engagement. Many of you follow me for months without ever commenting or asking any questions.
I received a call from a client/follower in Alberta last night and he reported last week's gains at over 300% by following my videos.
I received a message from another TV follower saying he's been following my videos for many months and, after a bad loss a few years back, he has decided to give trading another go.
I've stated it before and I'll keep saying it.. I'm not trying to scam you out of anything. I'm trying to show you the RIGHT SKILLS and TECHNIQUES for you to learn to become a better, more skilled trader.
The way I look at it is like this...
If I can teach you half of what I know and see on the charts, then you guys will be able to achieve so much greater success and have gained/retained the knowledge to do it on your own.
You watch me do it over and over on these charts. Guess what - you are LEARNING at the same time.
Now, after a couple of years of doing this and following my videos, you've GAINED an education on how to trade more efficiently, manage risk more efficiently, and achieve your trading goals (I hope).
Right now, I'm getting messages/comments from people saying they are making 200%, 300%, 500%, or more every week or two from my videos.
That is absolutely incredible. I just want to urge you to remember I'm not 100% perfect in predicting the markets. No one EVER really is 100% perfect at it.
In the long run, as long as you don't get super greedy, you'll survive any minor losses and live to trade another day.
That is probably the most important thing I can teach you - trade within a proper scale to your RISK LEVEL. Never BET THE FARM on your trades. Always have a 50% to 70% cash reserve.
Anyway. Thank you. I really appreciate all of you.
Hope you enjoy this video.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-11 : Break-Away in CarryoverToday's Break-away pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to move (break) away from yesterday's Body range. I believe this trend, after the recent Ultimate Low in price, will be to the upside.
I know a lot of people are asking, "why do you think the markets are going to rally now - after you suggested the markets would trend downward?"
Things have changed now that we have a 90-day pause in the tariff wars. Yes, China is still an issue - but the rest of the world seems to have a pause on the tariff wars as negotiations continue.
I believe the removal of the tariff pressure on the markets will result in a moderate upward trend as we move into Q1:2025 earnings season.
Still, I don't believe we will see new ATHs anytime soon. But I do believe the 580+ level on the SPY is a potential high price level that can be reached before the end of April 2025.
Gold and Silver are moving into a GAP trend move today. I believe the GAP will be to the upside and I believe Gold and Silver will continue to rally.
Silver is really low in terms of comparison to Gold. Silver could make a very big move to the upside over the next 30+ days.
BTCUSD is still consolidating into the narrow range I suggested would happen before the bigger breakdown event near the end of April (into early May).
Everything is playing out just as I expected. The big change is the removal of the tariffs for 75+ nations (for now). That will give the markets some room to the upside and we need to understand how price structure is playing out into an A-B-C wave structure.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
Nasdaq is not done yet, dont be fooled! On Wednesday, April 9, 2025, the Nasdaq experienced a significant 15% surge, driven by news catalysts. This upward movement aligned with the price reaching the daily Fair Value Gap (FVG), effectively absorbing all internal liquidity at that level. The critical juncture now lies in how the Nasdaq (NQ) performs over the next few days. Should we see a retest and breach of the recent highs from this news-driven rally, it could signal a strong potential for the index to achieve new all-time highs (ATH). Conversely, if the momentum falters and fails to sustain these levels, a swift decline toward 16,000 could materialize, with a further potential downside target of 14,000.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-10 : FLAT-DOWN PatternToday's Flat-Down Pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will struggle to move away from yesterday's big open-close range.
Normally, I would suggest the Flat-Down pattern will be a small, somewhat FLAT price move.
But, after yesterday's big move, the Flat-Down pattern can really be anywhere within yesterday's Daily Body range.
So, we could see very wild volatility today. That means we need to be prepared for general price consolidation (which suggests somewhat sideways price trending) and be prepared for some potential BIG price trends within that consolidation.
These BIG price trends would be more like bursts of trending, while still staying somewhat consolidated overall.
Watch today's video to learn how the Excess Phase Peak pattern is dominating the trend right now (in the Consolidation Phase).
The same thing is happening in BTCUSD. BTCUSD has been in an EPP Consolidation phase for over 35+ days now.
Gold and Silver are setting up a CRUSH pattern today. That could be a VERY BIG move higher (or downward). Given my analysis of Gold acting like a hedge (a proper hedge for global risk levels), I believe today's move will EXPLODE higher.
Gold is already in an early-stage parabolic bullish price trend. When gold explodes above $3500, I believe it will quickly gain momentum towards the $5100 level.
Right now, Gold is recovering from the Tariff news and about to explode upward (above $3200) if we see this CRUSH pattern play out well.
Thank you again for all the great compliments. I'm just trying to share my knowledge and skills with all of you before I die. There is no need to carry all of this great information and technology to my grave.
So, follow along, ask questions, learn, and PROFIT while I keep doing this.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
Where is the support level for Nasdaq?! Is the bloodbath over?Bearish fair value gap ranges are taking over this chart and when we rally up into them, they have been sending us down over and over.
This week we have had the advantage of a bearish gap from last week's low. This gave us clear reason to seek longs to fill the gap. Now we have a small cushion of long interest in this range after retesting the 2023 yearly candle's broken high.
As long as we remain above this yearly level--16.960ish (Using last year's low for NQ 17,570ish)-- we will see a neat consolidation and sitting upon these levels before the rally that may lead us out of this range.
That is what I expect, however, if we lose these levels, you already know we are headed to the dungeon of a true recession.
20 min breakdown:
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-9 : Top/Resistance UpdateToday's big rally, prompted by Trump's Tariff comments, presents a real learning opportunity for traders and followers of my videos.
Everyone wants to know what's going to happen next.
This video will tell you what I believe is NEXT for the markets and why.
It should also reinforce the construct that price is the ultimate indicator and the use of the EPP/Cradle patterns as a mechanism for using price structure to attempt to identify where opportunities may exist.
As much as this video is an analysis of price action and a prediction of what may come next, it is also a tutorial showing you how to use price patterns, structure and context to attempt to plan for your next opportunities.
Ideally, the next phase of the market is to establish a consolidation range.
If the 480-525 lower consolidation range does not hold - then it will likely become a precursor of the July breakdown (support) level. Remember, we still have the July/Oct lows to deal with.
I fully expect the 550-575 consolidation range to become the new dominant consolidation phase for the current EPP pattern.
It makes sense to me that, absent any crazy tariff war, the most likely outcome will be for the markets to recover back to the 550-575 level and to consolidate further.
The last component we have to consider is the recent lows near 480 could have been a very quick breakdown to an Ultimate Low. If that is the case, then we'll most into a mode of seeking the next higher resistance level and I believe the 550 or 575 level would be the obvious next resistance level.
So, at this point, I believe the continuation of the Excess Phase Peak pattern is likely, but the price is actively seeking the consolidation range between the lower consolidation level and the upper consolidation level.
Price MUST establish the consolidation range, or INVALIDATE this pattern, in order to move onto the next pattern/phase.
Get Some..
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
NASDAQ Harmonic pattern indicating strong bounce incoming.AI vs. Dot-Com Bubble
When drawing parallels between #AI and the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s, many express concerns that current valuations may be excessively inflated. However, significant differences are apparent.
To begin with, the current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of the NASDAQ-100 is approximately 30, whereas during the dot-com bubble, it skyrocketed to 200, with many companies lacking any earnings in sight.
Additionally, the market capitalisation to #GDP ratio reached unprecedented levels in the late 1990s, while today's figures, although still high, are supported by robust earnings and solid cash flows from established business models.
Innovations in AI, cloud computing, and digital transformation have fuelled revenue growth, exemplified by #NVIDIA's data centre sales, which surged 409% year-over-year in Q4 2024, and Microsoft's Azure, which experienced a 28% year-over-year increase in 2024. This surge in productivity is being driven by individuals, businesses, and governments alike.
As a result, major tech firms are making substantial investments in AI research and development, with clear strategies for monetisation.
AI is poised to become a transformative force, akin to the transistor, a groundbreaking invention that scales effectively and permeates various sectors of the economy.
Lastly, the Federal Reserve raised interest #rates to 6.5% to tackle inflation after previously lowering them to address Y2K concerns before the bubble burst in 2000.
In contrast, current expectations suggest that interest rates will stabilise or decrease, which would support valuations.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-9 : Top/Resistance PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to move a bit higher in early trading - trying to identify a resistance area. Then, roll over into a downward price trend.
Be cautious of the overnight price range, potentially already setting the upper boundary of the TOP pattern for today. It can happen that overnight trading sets a PEAK/TOP, and we move into sideways/downward trading related to the current TOP/Resistance pattern.
I believe the US markets will attempt to move upward, toward the $490-500+ level before topping out today. I believe this move will be related to the strong support near the $480 level and will attempt to further establish the downward price channel established by the big breakdown in trend over the past 9+ days.
Ultimately, I believe price is struggling for direction, but I also believe this process (with tariffs) is working out as expected.
This is obviously a very volatile market - so stay cautious as we move into a more consolidated price trend over the next few weeks.
I don't expect the markets to try to make any really big moves over the next 2+ week (unless news hits). At this point, I believe the markets will try to UNWIND the volatility over the next 2+ weeks.
BTCUSD is trading near the lower range of the consolidation phase. This could be the start of the breakdown to the Ultimate Low.
GOLD and Silver are moving higher after forming the base (just as I expected). Metals will likely rally strongly as global fear elevates.
Thank you for all the great comments. I'll try to publish a few new videos today and tomorrow to help everyone out.
Remember, price gives us new information every minute/bar. It is a matter of unraveling the puzzle with price - one bar at a time.
If you like what I do, follow along.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
