NQ 4h canle crazinessWatch this candle close.
The vol is average, hunt for liquidity is whats happening out there.
Remember the latest Crypto move, it went up first right, the rest was history!
Now how many of you forgot what just happened with crypto is last 2 days after that move up?
People tend to have a short memory. Nov will be a bearish month after Oct bullishness.
This is another bear market rally, nothing else
Nq!
NQ One hour Selling IdeaThe NQ one hour time frame is in a down trend
and has a down Fibonacci.
Entry: Counter trend line break
bearish in the sell zone.
STOP: 11488.75
LIMIT: 10556.00
Once or if the market provides the one hour
entry. As long as the market stays in the sell
zone. It will be a good idea to turn to the five
minute time frame and look for chandelier
traders / destination trader / tunnel trader
short ideas towards the one hour price target.
NQ is in bear flag, as long as it holds those highs it shouldNQ is in bear flag, as long as it holds those highs it should see lower lows imo
Simple distribution and premium kill all day.
All the money seems are made during the open, now algo game
I would not do options, unless in and out as those loose value quick
VIX closed its gap and still in consolidation mode.
Ideally we bottom in Nov and see a good rally into Jan high.
NQ should see around 8.5k imo, waiting for the capitulation move
For now range trade, in and out.
SPY RALLY WEEK - Are you ready for it?I continue to post these SPY Cycle Patterns as a way to help educate and explore my research/results.
The interesting part of this research is these patterns originate at an anchor point nearly 5 years ago and continue to produce valuable predictive results for each week going forward - all the way out to 2028 and beyond.
Why are they so important?
Because they can help you understand how cycles, price patterns, and psychology play a role in future price activity.
Of course, they are not 100% accurate as news items, the US Fed, and other (govt) actions may disrupt the cycle pattern trends. Ultimately, these are some of the best predictive solutions I've seen related to preparing for future trends/expectations in a long while.
Elliot wave is a great tool, but it adapts to future price movement. Therefore, what you see and believe is going to happen right now may not be valid in 2 to 5 days.
Fibonacci is probably the most valuable solution for attempting to develop any type of predictive modeling - besides my Cycle Patterns.
Well, this is all just conjecture related to what I believe.
Here we go - RALLY WEEK. Let's see what happens.
Most of November 2022 is looking quite bullish. So we may see a fairly strong start to a Christmas Rally setting up this week.
11-6: CRUSH - I expect this pattern to push into Monday, driving a fairly strong upward trend.
11-7: Flat-Down - this pattern may transition into early Tuesday, but quickly move towards the BreakAway trend.
11-8: BreakAway - This pattern should carry through most of Tuesday/Wednesday.
11-9: Rally - Off we go.
11-10: Rally - Continued rally (short squeeze)
11-11: Rally - possibly a stalling rally phase headed into the weekend.
11-12: Carryover - the weekend will setup as a pause, rotation, bottom for early next week.
11-13: Bottom
Follow my research..
Weekend Update: SPX Futures AnalysisENDING DIAGONAL BLACK EWT COUNT
My primary analysis is the SPX Futures have been mired in an overlapping decline that will conclude on an Ending Diagonal provided we head to new lows soon without breaching the 3928 level first. I will admit my primary analysis has come perilously close to invalidation (as is the nature of Diagonals). Additionally, my black ED path could have academic similarities with an overall ABC to conclude what I'm classifying as a cycle wave IV in a SC wave III. Allow me to make the case for my primary analysis first, then I'll discuss the alternatives.
The area where we get a major clue in the ES is a breach of 3590 which is displayed by the thick black line in the above chart. However, as you can see from the below Nasdaq Futures chart, that area has already been breached. The retracement has breached the .786% Fibonacci support area and looks poised to make a new low.
I do not analyze the NQ chart but in as much as the index looks similar to the ES structurally, it appears to be further along towards bottoming. The obvious question “Is NQ leading the ES...or vice versa”? Nonetheless, it is a clue we should take note of.
Also, the heavily weighted stock of Microsoft at 5% of the SP500 index has already breached its low and is almost complete from a pattern standpoint.
This is the same structure I am looking for in the SPX/ES to turn from bearish to bullish.
The chart of Apple has yet to strike that new low and is the largest component of the index. SO this bolsters my primary analytical point of view that regardless of what happens in near term, the SPX/ES is not complete in making its bottom despite what the financial news media may or may not report.
The below chart is the difference between the life of the Black count and Purple becoming my primary...and it boils down to a breach of 3928. Above 3928 and the ending diagonal count will be taken off the chart.
As of today, the SPX/ES has the opportunity to bottom quickly without interjecting more uncertainty. Whether it will do so or not remain to be seen. Nonetheless, it is my primary thesis that the index will head to new local lows and bottom this month.
CORRECTIVE RETRACEMENT PURPLE EWT COUNT
Below is the purple pathway and my secondary analysis of the path the ES Futures will take. If a breach of the 3928 level is to happen, this is the path price should take . I prefer a quick bottom as outlined in the black count but the purple count manages to do something I am in favor of when discussing stock market bottoms. It features a capitulation ending, only after getting its participants thoroughly confused. This is a slightly lower probability to the black count in my mind, but in truth statistically equal.
RED COUNT IMPULSIVE MOVE HIGHER, BULLS RUN WILD TO 5200-5500
The red count is my second alternative and structurally is valid but contains too many unknowns and therefore at this juncture maintains a shaky analytical foundation. First, it features a leading diagonal to start off the next bull run. Diagonals are declines or advances in which the trader sentiment is so UNDECIDED it makes for a choppy pattern that just frustrates participants. Diagonals are not reliable trading patterns and therefore it's hard for me to get behind this next bull run based on such feeble sentiment. Nonetheless, the red count is a 100% viable option within the rules of Elliott Wave and therefore I am including it.
The main difference between the red and purple count is where as the purple count concludes in the area of 1.0% to 1.236% Extension area, the red count surpasses that area in just the iii of 3-wave. The red count is an impulsive 5 wave structure that would complete as high as 4500-4600.
As an analyst all I can do is wait for the individual components of my analysis to eliminate themselves to finally arrive at a tradeable thesis. AS OF THIS AFTERNOON I HAVE NO REASON TO ABANDON THE BLACK ENDING DIAGONAL PATTERN FOR FINAL COMPLETION.
Best to all,
Chris
NQ as long its below 10990-11000 its bearishI missed am rally, exited one long from yesterday at the open and didnt re buy again, was too slow
Now I have added back to my swing short here (some was sold at my 645 and 685 levels I posted yesterday)
Watch that bold support line, its a very important place for the price!
Congrats to those who took a long this am!
I was saying about this rally yesterday it came super fast.
Its Fri, do not over trade! Have stops if you are in green, it can turn against you at any time!
NQ support got sliced!10905NQ got sliced, now its a resistance. Want to see at least 1h candles to hold that level if tested to confirm the breakdown
Im still not in a crash mode till at least after the elections. But as mentioned before Nov will /can be very volatile and red month!
ES tested the broken support from the bottom.
I have entered with small long, will add
NQ Fib channels Playing around with Fib channels, trying to find a bear target. 10.5k NQ should show some support as it's not only 62% linear retrace from Covid bottom, but 62% fib channel retrace from 2009 bottom to 2021 ATH. Below 10.5k gets steep pretty fast. Would be looking for 8800 or 7750 based on previous bottoms on the longer term fib channels, shown below.
Nasdaq - US100 Inverse Head & ShouldersA lot of traders will be looking at this pattern today. Will the RH shoulder form and will the price travel back up to the neckline?
The speculators will buy here, which means they will put their stops under the head. A big pool of liquidity is always a big magnet for stop hunters.
I don't trade these patterns but I keep an eye on the market structure to keep ahead of market psychology.
FOMC - NasdaqSo Tuesday, the high of the week? quite possibly.
Wednesday, FOMC and Powell announce a 75bps rate hike. Talks down the market.
Conveniently for anyone that shorted the gap fill, their target of the resting liquidity under the double bottom was realised.
Simple RSI/FIB Price System - BITCOIN BULLISHI've taught this system to hundreds of people over the past few years. It is a simple HIGHER HIGH/LOWER LOW system based on RSI 60/40. It is great for making decisions about longer-term trending and you can apply short-term technical analysis tools to 4 hour or other intervals to catch shorter-term trends.
BITCOIN is BULLISH using this system.
In fact, I would not be surprised to see $29k to $32k before the end of 2022.
The BASE/BOTTOM appears to be already in place and now we are simply waiting for some of that Christmas Rally momentum to push BITCOIN higher.
Follow my research and learn how I can help you stay ahead of the biggest market trends.