NQ
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-29 : BreakAway in CarryoverToday's pattern is a Breakaway in Carryover mode.
That suggests today's price move will attempt to break away from yesterday's body range and may be somewhat similar to yesterday's price action.
I interpret this pattern as a potential breakdown (breakaway) attempting to possibly find support below 540.
Remember, we are moving into the May 2-5 Major Low cycle pattern - so price should attempt to move downward at this stage.
Gold and Silver are moving through a consolidated topping phase. Where price attempts to push higher through a series of tops. Ultimately, I believe Gold and Silver will make a big breakout move higher (above $3500, $35.00) and attempt to rally up - breaking the $4200+ level (eventually).
Bitcoin seems to be stalling, like the SPY/QQQ, near upper resistance (near the FIB 50% level).
I see this stalling as the markets searching for a trend.
As I keep saying, I have a hard time seeing any reason why the markets will rally to new ATHs in the current environment (except the possibility of pure speculation).
We need to see some real growth expectations for the markets to begin another big rally phase.
Right now, I'm looking for confirmation of my breakdown into the May 2-5 Major Bottom pattern. Let's see if that actually happens or not.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update : Playing Into The Major BottomThis update highlights what I believe will be the last level of defense for price (support) on the SPY and why it is so important to HEDGE the markets right now.
The upward price move has reached the ULTIMATE HIGH (I believe) and is now moving into a Bullish EPP pattern (shifting into the downward pullback, then it will move into the flagging phase).
This flagging phase will be the deciding move (IMO) related to IF the markets attempt to break upward or downward near the current Fib 50% level.
This is why it is so important to HEDGE all open positions right now.
This battle zone in the markets (near the Fib 50% level) is not a guaranteed move higher or lower. Basically, we are watching the battle take place in live trading.
What we can do is try to rely on the EPP patterns and other formations to help guide us to the highest probable outcome, but we have to stay liquid and fluid as the markets trend.
Right now, I would suggest the breakdown (Major Low) outcome is about 70-80% likely. Thus, the breakaway (upside) outcome may be 20-30% likely based on my analysis.
But that could change if the SPY moves above $555.
Thank you again for all the great comments. I'm trying to help as many traders as I can. But this move to the 50% level is very "indecisive". So, I'm having to rely on Fibonacci Price Theory and other techniques (money management/HEDGING) as a way to protect my capital while I trade.
This is a great example of how you can learn techniques (beyond technical analysis) related to what to do when you really don't know what the markets may do in the near future.
The answer is HEDGE ACTIVE POSITIONS - or pull trades off (even if they are at a loss) and then HEDGE whatever you want to keep active.
No one is going to laugh when you tell them, "I protected my capital by hedging last week" when they are looking at severe losses and you are NOT looking as severe losses.
It is SMART TRADING.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-28 : Inside Breakaway In TRENDToday's Inside Breakaway pattern in Trend mode suggests the SPY will attempt to break away from Friday's body range. The Weekly Bias turned to BULLISH last week.
I believe today's price move will be indicative of the rest of the week. We are moving into a very strong Major CRUSH pattern on Friday and I believe that pattern will be a big breakdown move in price.
Thus, I believe the early trading this week (today and tomorrow) will set the tone for the rest of the week.
If we see a rotation in price near the 550 level (to the downside) then my May Low pattern will likely transition into a price breakdown this week.
If we see more upside price action on Monday/Tuesday, then I would be very cautious of the end of this week as a sudden price breakdown may happen.
Gold and Silver will likely stay very muted for the next two trading days. The Canadian Elections will likely cause the US to briefly pause as one of our closest neighbors and trading partners moves through this pivotal election.
Bitcoin will also likely pause a bit in early trading this week and BTCUSD moves up to the $95-96k upper resistance area.
I suggest traders take advantage of this pause in price action to HEDGE their open positions. I believe the bigger move is still to the downside, but I also believe the markets could continue to push a bit higher before ROLLING into that May 2-5 Major Bottom.
At this point, near the 50% Fib retracement level, the markets could break in either direction. But I still believe the May 2-5 Major Bottom will play out as a unique lower low price level - below $525-530 on the SPY.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-25 : Inside Breakaway patternToday's Pattern is an Inside Breakaway pattern. I suggest this pattern could play a pivotal role in how the markets setup for the May 2 Major Bottom pattern I'm expecting.
You'll see in this video how any move to the upside could present a broadening of the consolidation range - resulting in even bigger price volatility going forward.
Yet, I believe the markets will stall and roll a bit downward/sideways today. Possibly resulting in a move back into the lower consolidation range as we ROLL off resistance.
As I suggested last weekend, I see no reason to assume the markets are "cleared for take-off" yet. Tariffs and political concerns are still driving uncertainty.
I think we are seeing Q1 earnings inflate the markets while the fundamental elements of the global markets are still somewhat unsettled.
I urge traders to HEDGE any open trades going into this weekend. If the markets don't make any clear moves today, hedge any positions you hold into next week.
Gold & Silver are showing signs of minor panic selling. I see that as traders wanting to retest the $3300/$33 levels for Gold/Silver.
I still believe Gold/Silver will skyrocket higher. But, probably not going to happen today.
BTCUSD is making an interesting move higher. Potentially invalidating the previous EPP pattern and/or setting up a very broad consolidation range.
It will be interesting to see how BTCUSD continues to trend over the next few months.
Remember, I'm hopefully helping all of you find ways to improve your trading and find better results.
Get some..
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update : EPP Flag Setup CompleteI created this video to highlight the current EPP Flag setup in the SPY/ES.
It is my opinion that the market are about ready to ROLL OVER into a downward trend because of this current EPP setup.
Once the FLAG forms (in this case a BULLISH FLAG), the next phase is a BREAKDOWN INTO CONSOLIDATION.
It is my belief the current FLAG will prompt a breakdown in price - moving into a lower consolidation range.
I'm highlighting this EPP pattern to help everyone learn how to use them more efficiently.
Get ready. If I'm right, we're going to see a big move downward over the next 2-4+ days.
Get some...
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 4-24 : Carryover PatternToday's Carryover pattern suggests we'll see similar price action today to what we saw yesterday.
We will very likely see a little support in early trading today, followed by a moderate meltdown-type trend.
I'm not expecting much to happen today - but we could get some news or other data that may prompt some type of bigger move in the markets.
Yesterday evening, I shared an "Update" video with everyone. In that video, I highlighted some of my active trades.
I've gotten a few messages from followers asking if I can share more data related to my trades. I'm sorry, but that won't happen in these FREE Plan Your Trade videos.
I shared some of my trades yesterday to highlight how I had moved into a moderate Short/PUT position, trying to stay ahead of the bigger market trend.
In other words, I'm not chasing the nickels. I'm setup to try to profit from the DOLLARS.
Gold and Silver may stay somewhat muted over the next 48 hours. But, I do expect them to try to melt upward.
BTCUSD appears to be setting up a BULL TRAP. I, personally, don't trust this upward price move because it is counter to the EPP price structure. I could be wrong.
But right now, I just don't trust the upside move in BTCUSD, knowing the SPY/QQQ should move into a deeper MAJOR LOW in early May.
Again, these videos are designed to help you build your skills and find your own style of trading.
I really do hope all of you are benefiting from my continued work to deliver these videos.
GET SOME...
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Supply and Demand Zones 4/23/25 $NQLink: www.tradingview.com
After manyyyy months, I am finally coming back into my bread and butter.. Supply and Demand zones. Relearning this type of chart analysis was interesting, muscle memory kicked in but I definitely had to rewatch and re-read some old material to remember how I used to do this.
Back to the charts, my 2 games plans are:
1. Push into 1HR supply above to create (an ugly) shoulder and go short to fill the gap below. If we are respecting higher timeframe trend down, a retest of the gap/IMB/demand below would make sense.
2. Break out of HTF trend and reclaim the 1HR supply to become support (new demand level). If we are bullish and news is actually good, I want to see the 30MIN supply and gap get filled above.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 4-23 : Rally-111 PatternToday's pattern really showed up pre-market.
Where was the rally today? It happened before the US markets opened for business.
The SPY/QQQ had already moved up into my upper resistance area on strong buying overnight.
I knew I had to run my father around most of the day, so I booked my profits this morning and tried to catch one little SPY rally (that didn't work out).
So, I started taking some positions for next week's potential downtrend, and I thought, "How much risk am I taking on these trades if the markets continue to move upward?"
I realized I would be taking about $1000 to $1400 in total risk, but my expiration date is near May 16. So my target for any profit really needs to be before May 10th or so.
If the markets do what I expect, I'll be sitting back, watching my profits grow as the markets trend downward into my May 2 Major Bottom (I hope).
I created this video to highlight the now partially confirmed inverted EPP pattern that setup the Ultimate High in early trading today.
Now that we've completed the inverted EPP pattern, we should be looking for the ES/SPY/QQQ to move downward, shift into a sideways/upward price flag. Then, break down into the new Consolidation phase.
Essentially, if my EPP patterns play out well, I timed my move away from longs/calls and into shorts/puts almost perfectly. Now, I just need to sit back and wait for the markets to make a move.
This is what trading is all about. You can't kick the markets to do what you want them to do. You have to learn to take what the markets give you and fall in line with market trends.
When you do that well, profits start to fall into your lap (if you are patient).
Follow along as I break down these market trends and learn how to develop your own skills.
GET SOME.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-23 : Rally-111 PatternToday's RALLY pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will continue to push higher, possibly breaking upper resistance near $550/493.
As I suggested in this video, I believe the upward price trend bias will continue into Friday (4-25) and suddenly shift into a BEARISH price trend/bias early next week.
The May 2-5 Major Bottom cycle low, my research predicts, will happen and should prompt a fairly strong downward price trend as we near the end of April and head into early May.
Gold and Silver will likely consolidate a bit over the next 24-48 hours. So, this is a great time to pick lower entry price levels for LONGS/CALLS.
Ultimately, I'm still expecting Gold to rally above $3750 before the end of May and attempt to target $4500++ before the end of June.
BTCUSD is moving into a potential "INVALIDATION" phase. Although I'm currently estimating the probability of that invalidation at about 20-30%, it is still a valid price trend.
I believe BTCUSD will shift into a downward price trend as the markets continue to unwind excesses through the May, July, and October lows, according to my cycles.
The big opportunity for traders over the next 48 hours is playing the upward trend bias in the SPY/QQQ - then moving into a mode of preparation for next week's breakdown/downward price trend in the SPY/QQQ.
So, play it smart. Follow the chart and don't try to be a superhero.
Play what is in front of you and prepare for the bigger price swings headed into next week and beyond.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 4-22 : EPP StructuresThis video highlights why the Excess Phase Peak pattern is so important for traders to understand and follow.
Imagine being able to see into the future and to be able to plan/project price action in a way that is like putting together building blocks (or Leggos).
That is what the Excess Phase Peak pattern represents for all traders.
Once you understand it and learn to use it, you'll see how it presents very clear opportunities for you to plan and execute fantastic trades in any market.
Fibonacci Price Theory, Energy Cycles, & The Excess Phase Peak patterns are really the core structures of price.
Elliot Wave is fantastic for "after the fact" type of analysis. IMO, you don't really know how the EW count is truly structured until after the current major wave structure is complete (meaning you are 2-3 waves into the new (counter-trend) structure.
Watch this video and try to think about how I'm taking the EPP patterns to learn to plan out opportunities for price based on STRUCTURE - not indicators or averages.
This is how the markets work.
Pay attention and GET SOME.
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SPY Plan Your Trade For 4-22 : Breakaway In Counter TrendToday's pattern suggests the markets are moving in a counter-trend mode and that we may see a Breakaway type of price bar.
The current trend is Bearish. Thus, I believe the current Counter-Trend is Bullish.
As many of you already know. I picked up some Calls off the lows yesterday after noticing a complete EPP pattern (Ultimate Low) setup about 75 minutes before the end of the regular trading day on 4-21.
My opinion, overall, is that we are still stuck within a consolidation phase. But that doesn't mean we can't see the SPY/QQQ move higher (toward the upper consolidation high) or roll back downward (toward the lower consolidation low).
I do believe we are moving into a moderate upward price trend over the next 3-4+ days where price will attempt to retest the 525-535+ level on the SPY, then ROLL into a top and start a sharp downtrend.
This volatility presents an incredible opportunity for traders. Staying ahead of these trends is key to improved success.
The SPY Cycle Patterns are fairly clear. We've moved into consolidation, and the price is very volatile. The Counter Trend pattern today may setup a 3-4+ day minor rally in the SPY/QQQ.
But, ultimately, I believe the SPY/QQQ will roll downward into the May Cycle lows - just as I have been predicting for the past 45+ days.
Don't get greedy. Play the immediate trend and learn to identify the EPP patterns on 5-minute charts.
Today should be a very good day for traders.
Get some.
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