Palantir getting ready slowly$PLTR one of the favorite stocks is in its corrective wave II. It looks like it is forming a combination corrective wave and if the count is right, the breakout above the triangle should start wave III that is usually the longest and most powerful wave to higher prices, namely $80, $94, and $116 as the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd target respectively.
Palantir
PLTR more pain to come likelyPLTR falling wedge reversal failed, now all its left it is last major support, at $21, if it fails, it will go down as low as $15 or even $10. It is following the EV pattern, of massive devaluation, from 50-80%.
Retailer investors being slaughtered.
$PLTR Update 5/3 Daily Wedge Bottom. Video update on $PLTR
Still Within the wedge Heading back down to 21.50 and if we break out bullish on earnings we should finish a rounded bottom and can start setting our sights into the $40s
Trading Idea - PalantirNEUTRAL - sideways ranging in POC area
find SHORT position entry above 25.00 USD
find LONG position entry below 22.50 USD
PLTR Asymmetric TriangleAsymmetric triangle leading up to the Earnings Announcement. The direction of the break will most likely depend on Earnings.
Upwards Target: $32 (if they beat earnings price will be justified)
Downwards Target $18 (downside seems very limited from here even on an earnings miss)
ANALYST ESTIMATES:
Earnings Estimate Current Qtr.1 Next Year (2022)
Avg. Estimate 0.04 0.21
Low Estimate 0.03 0.16
High Estimate 0.05 0.27
Current estimates show roughly 30% growth Year over Year.
PLTR $40 BEAKOUTLooks like a break out is imminent for Palantir, catalyst is the number of HUGE new contracts being signed & possibly better earnings than anticipated! Time to load up on some shares.
$PLTR CATHY BACK AT AGAIN WITH THE 1.4M SHARESVideo breakdown on $PLTR After $ARKK purchased 1.4M shares of $PLTR/
Direct Listings: An overview of opening day patternsOn 4/14/2021, Coinbase went public with the ticker NASDAQ:COIN . This was a pretty heavily-anticipated listing if for no other reason than that there aren't really any other crypto exchanges you can buy that are traded on a major US exchange. There are some OTC options, but when it comes to a symbol that trades on a US exchange this is a big milestone. Tons of people scrambled to buy into the listing right when it went live and ended up closing out the day reasonably red. Even people who are experienced traders jumped in and ended up closing out for a loss by the end of the day.
So what happened here? Why did the stock go down with so much hype, why are there so many insiders selling, and really what even is a direct listing?
What is a Direct Listing?
With a traditional IPO, a company works with an underwriter (typically a bank or large financial institution) to put together their initial stock offering. This usually involves a road show where the company's representatives will travel around drumming up investment from institutional investors prior to the stock going live. On IPO day, the underwriter facilitates the transfer of these pre-IPO shares to the institutional investors they snagged during the road show prior to the stock going live on secondary markets (where you, the retail investor can buy in). There is also a lockup period in an IPO that limits selling and hedging on the stock for specific holders until a set period of time has passed.
A direct listing is when the shareholders of a company decide to sell shares in the enterprise directly to secondary markets without the help of an underwriter. With a direct listing, none of the road show stuff happens and there's no real lockup period unless that's specifically negotiated internally at the company. The company sets a reference price for the stock and on listing day the stock is just listed straight to secondary markets.
With both a traditional IPO and direct listing, we're usually looking at around 10% of the company's stock being up for sale. With a traditional IPO, the underwriter often buy all the shares being offered directly from the issuer and then be responsible for selling those shares. With a direct listing, shareholders sell their shares to the market directly.
What happened with Coinbase?
What happened with the Coinbase direct listing isn't new or weird. It seems to happen more or less with every direct listing. I went back and got some charts for some of the big direct listings that have happened over the past year or so and it happens to varying degrees more or less every time.
Here's NYSE:RBLX :
Here's NYSE:PLTR :
Here's NYSE:SPOT :
Here's NYSE:WORK :
Out of all of these, Roblox fared the best the fastest after going live but still had the same end of day drop as Coinbase. Slack had the worst performance and didn't bottom out for months.
So it's a pretty common phenomenon that direct listing stocks are probably a bad idea to buy into on the first day they list. The question becomes why.
Market Mechanics and Direct Listings
As I've said, with a direct listing the shares are coming directly from existing internal shareholders of the company. So in a market, there needs to be a willing buyer and a willing seller. In this case, there is an avalanche of selling that happens when the stock goes live and this has the kind of impact you would expect from a roughly 10% selloff of internal shares in a company. It makes the stock go down. Once the stocks are out in the market, it's up to the market to decide what they're worth. That could be more or less than the reference price set before going live. However, this selling has to happen by the very nature of what a direct listing is and this (among other technical factors) is a giant part of the reason why direct listings often end up red on the days they go live on the market.
So when you see stuff in the news about insiders selling some insane number of shares on the day the company does a direct listing, take it with a grain of salt. Chances are substantial that it's really just the normal kind of selling that is necessitated by this type of stock listing. I'm not saying that you should trust the CEO of Coinbase blindly and assume he'd never do wrong. But even in a world where this wasn't how direct listings work, the amount of heat it would bring down on him to just liquidate his entire ownership stake in a company he just brought public in some kind of "offloading the bags" scheme would be extreme. The incentives aren't there.
Summary
Based on averages alone, even if you knew nothing about the market mechanics of direct listings, it doesn't appear to be a smart move to buy into a directly listed stock on the day it starts trading. There is too much downward selling pressure involved and all the price discovery starts on opening day so volatility is expected.
If you're interested in following along with the other stuff I do outside of TradingView, definitely make sure to follow my Substack and my Twitter (details in my signature space at the bottom of this idea).
As with everything I write, remember that this is just my observations and that you should not assume that everything is perfect or works the same way every time. Trading is a risky thing to do and no matter what you're always taking risks when you trade, so keep that in mind.
PLTR - RE-TESTLet's wait and see how it goes from here on.
Feel free to give us your opinions on the stock!
STOCKS - Palantir $PLTR - Wave 3Algorithm has given entry signals for Palantir Technologies
- Palantir Technologies is ready for the triple digits, to join its peers in FAANG.
- Potential technical breakout.
- Invalidated if the rally turns to a sign of weakness.
GLHF,
DPT
Disclaimer:
We absolutely do not provide financial advice in any shape or form. We do not recommend investing based on our opinions and strongly cautions that securities trading and investment involves high risk and that you can lose a lot of money. Loss of principal is possible. We do not recommend risking money you cannot afford to lose. We do not guarantee future performance nor accuracy in historical analyses. We are not registered investment advisors. Our ideas, opinions and statements are not a substitute for professional investment advice. We provide ideas containing impersonal market observations and our opinions. Our speculations may be used in preparation to form your own ideas.
Palantir - slow rise off lows. This is an update of the Palantir stock chart posted on Feb 20, 2021. Price broke below the 61.8% fib support, and has now swung back above it. In the 4h chart, price is just below the 50-day MA, bearish cross happened around 24 March. A break above the pink Ichimoku cloud on the 4h chart would confirm a long scenario, with first major resistance to the upside at around 27.49. Next support would be the last low at 20.79. Please follow BradtNom, leave a comment or link to your own ideas! Charts are for information purposes only. Not trade suggestions. DYOR (Do your own research) - act responsibly with your money.
PLTR: Descending triangle, close to supportIdea described on chart. Descending triangles are usually bearish. Any thoughts/contradicting ideas/trends that you might see?
I did sell some covered calls as a hedge, since I'm not sure about short term movement.
Not an investment advice
Palantir -Top and Bottom-Top and bottom are 130 and 4.75.
Above 130 the chart is worthless until we revisit the area below 130
Expect stronger resistance / profit taking at 85.
Expect support after that around 35.
GL
$PLTR - Bullish-ish but barely.Hi Ya'll,
First of all, this is not financial advice. It's my own DD that i use to trade. This ain't even very logical DD and is likely a pretty bad idea actually. Almost regretting it really.
I think PLTR is bullish, but just barely... There was a big sell off in February as shown by the OBV indicator and this means that PLTR has lost it's legs and previous support/resistances. It's entered a new trading range.
I think if PLTR is attacked by hedgies, it'll have a rough time staying above $20. If however hedgies and shorties aren't interested in PLTR, i think we can float at around $20 - $24.
My bet on PLTR is that due the previous sell-off, someone will actually buy PLTR shares at the end of the bullish wedge i'm indicating on the chart. Unfortunately even though i want this to happen, i think it's just a dream as wall street isn't very interested in buying PLTR with it's various tech related excuses, but i believe it's mostly because of how PLTR's shares are set up and how no external entity can have true ownership over PLTR no matter how many shares they buy. This is in PLTR's prospectus document.
Only Kathy Woods and retail might be interested in PLTR due to it's actual value, whilst the rest of wallstreet isn't really interested because it's not a company they can bet against also due to the huge share float of PLTR.
So yeah, PLTR barely bullish for me, just barely with a chance of shorts if they catch on and realize PLTR is prime for a quick one. I should probably be shorting it, but i'm not that kind of guy so. PLTR's OBV is somewhat terrible and has collapsed due to the large selloff by Cohen and others. I'm not sure this company can make it in the Public trading domain... and honestly i might actually just kill my buys... I don't know, i want to have hope but... yeah. Indicators not looking good for me and i'm not terribly confident in their ability to make a net profit yet cause they aren't making money...
Gonna be checking them out for the next few quarters and see if they improve with their ever increasing government contracts.
I have a large long buy position PLTR btw.
PLTR looks GoodPLTR is rite now in falling wedge and Cathie is very bullish on this stock so am i .
Next target is 30$ and then 40$.
$PLTRHello, my Palantard friends. We are waiting for the earnings day. However, from the look of the chart, we are entering the bull phase pretty soon. Optimism is the key. Never let your emotions come on top. Patience is the key.
PLTR - On the Precipice of Greatness
I jumped into PLTR back in mid/late FEB when it was tanking pretty hard. I've been patiently waiting and pulled the trigger on another lower price point to decrease my DCA. After more waiting... I think we're on the precipice of greatness here with PLTR.
Most of my points are called out above. Some additional notes here.
2 day candles show a LONG stretch of being oversold
Last time we left oversold we saw a 79% pump
We've once again been oversold for a very long stretch
Double bottom established and could give us the momentum we need to break out of the oversold position
Things to keep an eye on:
Would be really nice to see the DMI tick up towards bullish momentum
Keep an eye on the neck line of the W (orange dotted line) - needs to break that to finish the push
Obviously do your own research and due diligence before investing... but as for me... I just like the stock.
-Matt
$PLTR breaking out of resistance$PLTR Broke out of upper resistance today. It is still facing slight horizontal resistance but in my opinion it could start running if we get a broadly bullish day.
$PLTR - Mega Wedge UpdateHi ya all,
Yesterday i posted about 1 possible Mega Wedge, today i realized i may have made a mistake and that the wedge i posted yesterday could be completely wrong.
Yesterday's Mega Wedge is based on the trendlines drawn from the Jan 26 PLTR spike and this is likely very very WRONG. Why? Because i just realized that the reason why PLTR spiked on the ~26'th of January was only due to Gamestop. Hear me out before you click off...
Gamestop rallied insanely during the 26'th-28'th of January. This has a big effect on the Russel 2000 (IWM) ETF it's part of. PLTR whilst not truly part of any index as said by themselves in their own prospectus ACTUALLY does track the Russel 2000 (IWM) quite perfectly. Now because Gamestop rallied insanely during those dates, it dragged up the whole index up as a whole which also dragged up PLTR as well along with it. This means that the spike that i based yesterday's technical analysis on is an anomaly, e.g i based my mega wedge based on an anomaly hence why yesterday's mega wedge is possibly WRONG .
After realizing this mistake, i went and took a second look at the PLTR chart and realized that there still IS a wedge, a symmetrical one showing endless consolidation and accumulation at the $22-$29 area. Really, if you exclude the Jan 26-28 spikes, PLTR has truly actually traded only within this range for a very long time accumulating. Lots of institutions DID drop Palantir on earnings last month with new ones picking it up e.g Kathy Woods (Who despite Rumours is continuing to buy PLTR daily and has made big buys recently proof here: cathiesark.com )
The symmetric wedge ends on around May the 26'th. A breakout could come before or after this date or even not at all.
My bet is that a breakout will come at the end of this wedge and that the next price target should be a big one, but this is just my own opinion based on nothing and you shouldn't listen to me. I am invested in Gamestop and PLTR and i think the only reason PLTR will do so well in the near future is only due to Gamestop's big incoming gamma to short squeeze. No one knows when it's going to happen or whether it's going to be a singular event or a slow squeeze like Tesla. If it's a big event, it's going to make the Russel 2000 (IWM) and PLTR go up A LOT making PLTR a big winner for momentum and volatility traders. I have an appetite for risk and volatility so i'm in...
Regardless, i have a boatload of calls for May for Palantir that i'm likely going to roll over to a later date now that i've realized that nothing might happen by the end of May other than small ups and downs e.g theta-gang-ing for PLTR. Heck, i might sell some contracts for it and theta gang this thing.
