S&P 500 - SPY Extremely Bullish Indications - Multi ConfirmationI have been operating on the assumption that the Dow Jones TVC:DJI will reach 20,000 as it certainly Makes America Great(er) Again(Than before 20,000)!!! *insert charming sentence about the interrelated...ness'... of markets* Thus the S&P 500 will likely also rally... that takes us to the end of the macro (arguably still mostly technical) analysis portion, thank you for your patience!
Technicals have been setting up another bull-run. I've linked to yesterdays post based on PCRs that are showing extremes... i.e. today the OEX's Put/Call Ratio PCOEX is at .276 (This is the cagefree-shark-diving-with-chunks of-raw-meet-tied-to-your-body degree of extreme...ness'...) --- Also, the SPX Put/Call Ratio PCSPX is sitting at a 1.624 --- Please don't ask which ones are contrarian, seriously...
If you saw the chart published yesterday that I have linked to this one, you would see that I had included a pennant, and flag version... I now conclude that multiple TFs have validated and confirmed it to be a rectangle, which was my thought all along. Many folks post without extended-hours included and thus base their judgement on an incomplete data set... It is crucial to include and analyze as much of the picture as possible! Some will have you believe this to be a right angled triangle (flat bottom, descending top) but in my opinion that is a stretch, if even an option due to the nearly zero touches of the proposed support... Check this out for yourself, drop a comment or two!
You want more bullishness?
More than 2.5 billion shares have advanced in last 36 hours across US equities markets...
Most of which did so today...
While I could list many more, that would leave no work for you intrepid technical detectives of sorts... quite frankly I couldn't sleep knowing I was such a selfish taker'... Ironically my wife sleeps quite well.
Oh, nearly forgot... you may be wondering about my wave analysis... self-awareness is crucial in trading, and well, I didn't leave out "Elliot" by accident... Infact, I was trying to not use the word 'analysis' either but my hunger has overtaken my desire for grammatical accuracy... I have great respect for EWA and those who have mastered it, the only mastery I have related to EWA is a mastery of knowing I know very little about it... Despite the obvious ring to it, I am afraid that really isn't a mastery...
Nevertheless, based on some of the Elliot Wave Analysis I've seen from the TradingView community you could very well confuse me for Mr. Elliot Wave himself... relax, I am obviously kidding... clearly I'm nearly entirely half joking. On a side note, what are the chances of such a well-suited lastname? This must be why one school of thought has always credited the theory to his parents, they often bring up the 83 months it took Elliot to successfully pass the Grade 2 English and Math literacy examinations (Knowing the first five letters in the alphabet, counting to to five, sometimes counting to five and being told to start again but count up to two less than last time... Sometimes combining the two, i.e. Please count to five and then say the first three letters in the alphabet)... If you ask me, this is a bunch of total b.s.!
I digress, please consider my wave counts as you would the previous paragraph - If by some minuscule chance they are correct, the implications would imply the start of a massive rally... aka you would want to go long, and stay long...
The counts did not contribute to, or affect, my sentiment and analysis!
P.S. Please feel free to leave a comment or five, this is a community after-all! ... I am fine with constructive criticism, destructive criticism, compliments, personal insults and even childish name-calling....just PLEASE have some sort of opinion, and whatever you do, don't be a fence sitter, I hate fence sitters!!!!
Ratio
Gold/Stocks ratio: Risk off rally?It appears like we're about to see a pullback in equities, or at least a rally in gold and silver, and a pullback in the dollar here. It might have to do with the Italian referendum as well, but we'll know soon enough.
Breaking this trendline would signal risk off sentiment, further validating the gold and silver long ideas I've posted.
What I'm not sure of yet, is the extent of the rally to come, and wether it is part of a retracement in a long term trend that has turned down (this is possible), or simply the market is sideways and trendless (forming a giant consolidation or sideways pattern, or even a triangle).
You can set alert to know when (if) this trendline breaks, set it to 'crossing up', 'once' using tradingview's handy alert system.
Once CCI hits +100, we might get a set up to flip short gold, on weakness, so we have to remain vigilant as gold approaches the 1240-1250 zone.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Gold/Silver ratio: Long term bearish declineThe Gold/Silver ratio shows an interesting setup here, and correlation to inverted SPX, which points to the nature of the ratio's movement tied to risk off/on phases. This has to do with the real world applications silver has as an industrial metal, compared to gold's function as a store of value and risk off protection.
I think we can see a long term decline, implying the price of silver will either appreciate or depreciate less than the price of gold, in comparison to it at least.
It's probably a good trade to take as a pair, which if you're using futures, implies you use a 2 to 3 ratio, selling 2 GC contracts and buying 3 SI contracts to enter the trade with reduced margin requirements. (I think there's a new contract for the ratio alone, but not familiar with it). You should size the trade based on risking 1% to 2% max if the price were to go against you coming back to 70.43.
In the case of CFD or FX traders, you could open trades in the XAUUSD and XAGUSD instruments, or using this XAUXAG or XAGXAU contracts if they exist in your platform. If you own physical gold, exchanging it for silver makes sense at this point (if you didn't already).
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Very high probability trade on IYRIYR haved moved over 8% in the last 2 months. With an IV percentile of over 60% we can sell premium and get a higher probability trade. I will be using a combination of ratio spreads Selling the (2) 73 and (2) 78 Puts and buying (1) 75 put and (1) 81 put. This will give us the potential to win $330 per trade and giving us a break even of $72.84 with a 85% chance of profit. The price would have to move another 8% down for us to be in trouble.
SPY to rally based on VIX/SPYThe ratio VIX/SPY goes down when SPX 0.05% goes up. This makes it easier to see the ratios lower limit (and SPX's upper limit)
Today VIX/SPY broke a support.
SPX has not yet mimicked this move
If VIX/SPY returns to baseline (as it has before) it implies a move of SPX500 to ~2183.
Daily analysis on USDJPYThis is pure structure, but can also be called cycle bottom. I actually learned the power that this pattern and structure have by backtesting Double tops/bottoms. It is nothing fancy, just basic understanding of structure and how the market moves.
I hope you are having a wonderful week in the markets! Please do not hesitate to comment your opinions or ask questions.
And, like always, follow your plan!
Pattern festival on GBPJPYToday we are having a very active Monday. I already closed a winner on GBPJPY (previous Cypher), I have open positions on USDJPY and GBPUSD, and a few other patterns in my radar. Anyways, we may have another Cypher completion on this pair. We just can wait and see if we get triggered..
Follow your plan! And, please feel free to comment any question or opinion!
Bat pattern as a TCT opportunity We are bullish on the higher time frame, and we just broke an important structure level. I do believe that we can go higher and re-test the highs. However, this is my 4th week of forward testing, and I do not want to get fancy yet. I want to do this slowly but steadily.
Structure trade on EURJPYAll the hard work have been done. Now, I am just waiting to see if the double bottom forms. I already missed a daytrade on this pair in the beginning of the week; I hope to be able to enter here. Both targets are based in structure. You can look left and see why my targets are there.
Following the plan!
GLD/SLV: Sell your gold for Silver!We have a nice setup here, you can take an equal dollar weight, which if trading futures, is roughly 2:1 on silver vs gold allocation (long/short). With stocks it's simple, I reccomend a 7% capital allocation to this trade, per side and no stop loss.
This is quite easily a 4R trade once it pans out favorably.
Good luck!
Ivan Labrie.
PS: Contact me if interested on trading signals, or private tuition.
Gartley pattern on AUDUSDThe last two patterns were losers, and I took a relatively big loss on them. But, that doesn't mean that I have to scare myself out of the next opportunity! It doesn't matter if it wins or not as long as I am following the plan! ...I hope it wins though haha.
I hope you all are having a wonderful week of trading!
Structure trade on EURUSD (Part 2)I just had a winning trade on this pair on the previous double bottom. I was stopped out for break even on my second position before it rallied up, but I got target 1. On the other hand, now, we may have to enter again. There is a potential 2618 forming up. Tomorrow we will have Non-farms payrolls, so I will have to keep an eye on that. I will not enter any position during that news event.
- Higher time frame confirmation
- Structure
- 2618
RULES MET
CTS + Gartley patternI got filled on the Gartley while I was sleeping. I had been stalking that zone for a long time, and I got a chance to enter. However, for those CTS traders or structure traders there may be another opportunity to enter. I know that if I were not on the Gartley, I would go short on a double top because it fits my rules.
Anyways, good luck this week! Comment your opinions; are you thinking bullish or bearish in this pair?