US Small Caps with a nice Chance to Risk play on the short sideI am expecting that a bigger 5 wave move to the upside has been finished in the US Small Cap Index. Therefore we should see a corrective ABC move to the downside with the C wave still to come. This setup is valid as long as we don't make any new ATH, should we move over the 76.4% retracement this setup already becomes questionable, however at the moment it looks well intact.
Russell2000
ISM Manufacturing index contractionDrop below 50 = economic contraction. What's concerning is market has been making all-time highs while ISM has been going down. I interpret that as a fundamental problem and as a friend once told me, "Fundamentals are king...eventually".
RUT update for week ending 27 September 2019Weekly Data Summary Suggests:
Current Weekly Trend is Bearish
The anticipated upcoming trade range is between 1485.51 - 1555.43
If RUT is capable of maintaining the current strength as of today, there is a projected weekly target price of 1653.52
Price movement has returned to the Trending Moving Average this suggests either a stall while averages catch up to the prices or a turn in the prices in the opposite direction
The RSI that monitors bullish strength has a current weekly reading of: Neutral Bull
The RSI that monitors bearish strength has a current weekly reading of: Neutral Bull
The strength demonstrated over the last 5 weeks is currently: Bearish
Price Consolidation has formed between: 1506.77 - 1590.5
Current chart score suggests a Bullish Market is present.
Daily Data Summary Suggests:
Current Daily Trend is Bearish
The anticipated upcoming trade range is between 1506.64 - 1534.32
If RUT is capable of maintaining the current strength as of today, there is a projected daily target price of 1543.02
Price movement has returned to the Trending Moving Average this suggests either a stall while averages catch up to the prices or a turn in the prices in the opposite direction
The RSI that monitors bullish strength has a current daily reading of: Neutral Bear
The RSI that monitors bearish strength has a current daily reading of: Neutral Bear
The strength demonstrated over the last 5 days is currently: Bearish
Prices have broken through the consolidation low
Current chart score suggests a Bearish Market is present.
Comments:
Mixed sentiment between weekly and daily charts. Daily chart maybe bearish at this moment, however it may be prepared to turn again and continue back up. This is based on the divergence on the indicators between the stronger trend (week) and weaker trend (day).
** If data does not significantly change between trade dates, a daily update may be skipped. Monthly and Weekly updates will always be provided. **
RUT update for 25 September 2019Daily Data Summary Suggests:
Current Daily Trend is Bullish
The anticipated upcoming trade range is between 1536.28 - 1565.02
Price movement has returned to the Trending Moving Average this suggests either a stall while averages catch up to the prices or a turn in the prices in the opposite direction
The RSI that monitors bullish strength has a current daily reading of: Neutral Bull
The RSI that monitors bearish strength has a current daily reading of: Neutral Bull
The strength demonstrated over the last 5 days is currently: Bearish
Price Consolidation has re-established itself between: 1530.33 - 1590.5
Current chart score suggests a Bearish Market is present.
** If data does not significantly change between trade dates, a daily update may be skipped. Monthly and Weekly updates will always be provided. **
RUT update for 24 September 2019Daily Data Summary Suggests:
Current Daily Trend is Bull
The anticipated upcoming trade range is between 1519.45896 - 1547.72104
If RUT is capable of maintaining the current strength as of today, there is a projected daily target price of
Price movement has slowed below the average trade range and are suggesting either a stall for averages to catch the prices or a turn in the prices in the opposite direction
The RSI that monitors bullish strength has a current daily reading of: Neutral Bull
The RSI that monitors bearish strength has a current daily reading of: Neutral Bull
The strength demonstrated over the last 5 days is currently: Bearish
Prices have broken through the consolidation low
The price relationship to the moving averages currently suggest closing longs and protecting profit.
Current chart score suggests a Bearish Market is present.
** If data does not significantly change between trade dates, a daily update may be skipped. Monthly and Weekly updates will always be provided. **
RUT Update for 23 September 2019
Daily for 23 September 2019
In Bull territory.
Price Projection:
HMA: Bull
Bull RSI: Bullish
Bear RSI: Neutral Bull
BSI: Neutral Bull
5 RSI: 5 day relative strength appears Bearish
Consolidation: In Consolidation between 1541.88 - 1590.5
Price-Trend: .81x ATR
Comments: Time to take profit? The prices have closed under the 8MA, usually a sign of profit taking.
Prices are caught in consolidation.
Neutrality has entered into the indicators and the 5 day RSI is bearish.
Might be time to lock in some profits.
** Weekly updates will always be provided, if not updated daily, it generally means the underlying primary signals have not changed since last reported. **
RUT Update for week ending 20 September 2019Week update for week ending 20 September 2019
In Bull territory.
Projected range for upcoming week 1594.72 - 1524.82
Price Projection:
HMA: Neutral Bull
Bull RSI: Bullish
Bear RSI: Neutral Bull
BSI: Bullish
5 RSI: 5 day relative strength appears Bullish
Consolidation: In Consolidation between 1506.77 - 1590.5
Price-Trend: .56x ATR
Daily for 20 September 2019
In Bull territory.
Price Projection: 1549.42
HMA: Bull
Bull RSI: Bullish
Bear RSI: Neutral Bull
BSI: Neutral Bull
5 RSI: 5 day relative strength appears Bullish
Consolidation: In Consolidation between 1541.88 - 1590.5
Price-Trend: .94x ATR
** Weekly updates will always be provided, if not updated daily, it generally means the underlying primary signals have not changed since last reported. **
RUT Update for 19 September 2019
Daily for 19 September 2019
In Bull territory.
Price Projection: 1597
HMA: Bull
Bull RSI: Bullish
Bear RSI: Bullish
BSI: Bullish
5 RSI: Positive
Consolidation: In Consolidation between 1541.88 - 1590.5
Price-Trend: 1.13x ATR
** Weekly updates will always be provided, if not updated daily, it generally means the underlying primary signals have not changed since last reported. **
Russell 2000 to Lead US Equities Lower?We have what appears to be a reversal pattern here with the Russell 2000. You can call it a head and shoulders although not textbook. Again it shows a shift in trend from higher lows to now lower highs.
The neckline has been broken, and I am using the 1575.80 area as my lower high swing.
Lot of debate on what leads, the mid caps or large caps. In my experience, I have seen money flow into the mid caps first before the large caps. Again, this is just a trade to the zone I have depicted below. Like the set up and confluences we have here. Also, if more recession signs appear then the Russell will take a hit as well.
RUT Update for 18 September 2019
Daily for 18 September 2019
In Bull territory.
Price Projection: 1671.02
HMA: Bull
Bull RSI: Bullish
Bear RSI: Neutral Bull
BSI: Bullish
5 RSI: Positive
Consolidation: In Consolidation between 1541.88 - 1590.5
Price-Trend: 1.64x ATR
Comments: First three days of the week, not much movement except after the Fed announcement on Wednesday. Thought we were going to see something worth while. But everything returned to "flat" for third day.
** Weekly updates will always be provided, if not updated daily, it generally means the underlying primary signals have not changed since last reported. **
IWM short setup in the worksA break below 156-ish is bearish in my opinion, and increases the likelihood that IWM will retest the bottom of its descending channel. In addition to that, the RSI is showing overbought conditions. If it breaks below the 156-ish level, I will short it via puts and look for a risk/reward somewhere in that area I noted.
Fundamentally, it all hinges on the Fed meeting later this afternoon. I still believe a meager 25 BP rate cut will send the market hopesters to their "safe places," while they pout. Therefore, sending the markets lower while they sulk in their own pity.
Don't be a hopester ... use solid analysis. DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH AND BE RATIONAL ABOUT IT!! Yes, I know the markets are irrational at times. However, you can still give yourself an edge that the hopesters don't have by analyzing instead of guessing (gambling).
RUT Update for week ending 13 September 2019Week update for week ending 13 September 2019
In Bull territory.
Projected range for upcoming week 1613.19 - 1543.09
Price Projection: 1775.50
HMA: Neutral Bull
Bull RSI: Neutral Bull
Bear RSI: Neutral Bull
BSI: Bullish
5 RSI: Positive
Consolidation: Broken to the high
Price-Trend: .99x ATR
Daily for 13 September 2019
In Bull territory.
Price Projection: 1671.02
HMA: Bull
Bull RSI: Bullish
Bear RSI: Bullish
BSI: Bullish
5 RSI: Positive
Consolidation: In Consolidation between 1541.87 - 1589.45
Price-Trend: 2.66x ATR
** Weekly updates will always be provided, if not updated daily, it generally means the underlying primary signals have not changed since last reported. **
RUT Update for 11 September 2019
Daily for 11 September 2019
In Bull territory.
Price Projection: 1671.02
HMA: Strong Bull
Bull RSI: Bullish
Bear RSI: Neutral Bull
BSI: Bullish
5 RSI: Positive
Consolidation: None
Price-Trend: 2.82x ATR
** Weekly updates will always be provided, if not updated daily, it generally means the underlying primary signals have not changed since last reported. **
RUT Update for 10 September 2019
Daily for 10 September 2019
In Bull territory.
Price Projection: 1558 - 1600
HMA: Bull
Bull RSI: Bullish
Bear RSI: Neutral Bull
BSI: Bullish
5 RSI: Positive
Consolidation: None
Price-Trend: 1.72x ATR
** Weekly updates will always be provided, if not updated daily, it generally means the underlying primary signals have not changed since last reported. **
RUT Update for 9 September 2019
Daily for 9 September 2019
In Bull territory.
Price Projection: 1558.52
HMA: Bull
Bull RSI: Neutral Bull
Bear RSI: Neutral Bull
BSI: Bullish
5 RSI: Positive
Consolidation: Broken to the high
Price-Trend: x ATR
** Weekly updates will always be provided, if not updated daily, it generally means the underlying primary signals have not changed since last reported. **
Russel futures crossdown formingOpened green but getting rejected at resistance like es and nq. On 30m chart a crossdown forming which could see a bit of a drop. I wouldnt be surprised to see all 3 indexes open in the red tomorrow. Puts held over weekend would make some money but not enough to be a big win per say. Still glad i stayed out this weekend. But as we know. One trump tweet could change the course drastically. Could see some choppy markets still until feds on 18th.
RUT Update for week ending 6 September 2019Week update for week ending 6 September 2019
In Bear territory.
Projected range for upcoming week 1505.17 - 1456.17
Price Projection:
HMA: Strong Bear
Bull RSI: Neutral Bear
Bear RSI: Bearish
BSI: Bearish
5 RSI: Negative
Consolidation: In Consolidation between 1450.33 - 1533.49
Price-Trend: .4x ATR
Daily for 6 September 2019
In Bull territory.
Price Projection: 1375
HMA: Neutral Bull
Bull RSI: Neutral Bull
Bear RSI: Neutral Bull
BSI: Bullish
5 RSI: Positive
Consolidation: In Consolidation between 1450.84 - 1521.79
Price-Trend: .28x ATR
Comments: A change of chart views. Trying to clean-up from to much data what is presented.
Weekly charts are still bearish in a consolidation range. The Daily just became bullish on the 5th. But does it have the strength to continue.
Little to no reaction to the NFP and Chairman Powell's Q/A. No expecting the market to break the consolidation high this coming week.
What am I showing on this new(ish) chart?
Daily: 5 September, confirmed bull trend. But can it hold?
Weekly: Bear trend since week of 5 August.
** Weekly updates will always be provided, if not updated daily, it generally means the underlying primary signals have not changed since last reported. **
NO BREAK! But SPY, DIA, and QQQ broke...The Russell ETF could not break out of consolidation, but the other 3 majors did break.
The Russell - being the major small cap index - is an indicator of risk. When the Russell is rising, investors are less fearful. When the Russell is falling, investors are cautious ... That's the basic concept anyways.
I think this Russell chart is showing that maybe people aren't as optimistic as Thursday's rocket ship would have implied. While the 3 biggest indexes broke through strong resistance pretty convincingly, the Russell stayed put ... it tried, but did not succeed. IWM also bounced off its 50 day MA.
In addition to that, Friday's close was less than impressive. I'm betting on at least a bearish start to next week, and possibly for the week as a whole. Jerome Powell, yet again, gave no clear-cut direction to the Fed's interest rate plans, leaving the market to wonder what's going on. All economic indications (and technicals) are pointing towards - at the very least - a strong market correction. I think Powell's speech, mixed with the very poor jobs report, put a bad taste in the markets mouth.
I bought some TVIX yesterday, because I'm thinking Monday might be a little ugly. Looking at this IWM chart makes me feel even better about my TVIX purchase ... for Monday anyways.
RUT Update for 5 September 2019
Daily for 5 September 2019
In Bull territory.
Price Projection: 1535
HMA: Neutral Bull
Bull RSI: Neutral
Bear RSI: Neutral
BSI: Bullish
5 RSI: Positive
Consolidation: In Consolidation between 1450.84 - 1521.79
Price-Trend: .55x ATR
** Weekly updates will always be provided, if not updated daily, it generally means the underlying primary signals have not changed since last reported. **