Silver I Potential upside Hello,Traders!
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XAGUSD (Silver) is trading in a downtrend on the daily and sitting
right below the 50 MA. After the recent decline and consecutive
rejection at 20.73, price has been pushing upward in an impulse,
correction phase. It is currently rejecting the 32% fib after the
impulse rise from 21.77. All signs are pointing to more upside at
the moment with a potential target to resistance 23.50
Trade safe and good luck!
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Silveranalysis
XAGUSD I Short from resistance Hello,Traders!
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XAGUSD is trading in a downtrend
on the daily, however after the recent bullish impulse
and bullish engulfing candle on the weekly, we believe a
correction to 22.28 is in process and then, more
potential upside is probable. Short!
Trade safe and good luck!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
Macro Monday 16~SIlver 2nd in RecessionMacro Monday 16
Silver Performance During and Immediately Post-Recession
Over the past few weeks I have heard many financial analysts recommending holding Gold and Silver for protection against a recession scenario or at least holding some bullion as a diversifier or insurance against currency risk. Today’s Silver Chart and Golds Chart from last weeks Macro Monday are aimed at identifying how good these assets performed during the last 8 recessions.
Last week we covered how gold performed during the last 8 recessions and discovered that gold provides an average return of +7.3% during recession periods whilst the S&P500 averaged a -35.6% decline. It is important to note that Gold’s price declined by -9.3% and -6.3% during 2 of the last 8 recessions, however it performed better than the S&P500 in both those scenarios during which the S&P500 declined -12.7% and -16.3% respectively. Last week’s chart of Gold demonstrated that it can offer protection during recessions whilst also potentially offering an average +7.3% return over those period.
The Chart
Interestingly Silver does not appear to be as protective as Gold during recession periods however it appears to make positive moves post-recession which is valuable to know as timing your silver allocation later in a recession cycle could be benefit your portfolio;
1. During 6 out of the last 8 recession periods Silver has declined in price by an average of -9%.
- This is a lessor performance to Golds positive average of +7.3% over the same period.
- However, Silver declines less than S&P500 which declines on average -35.6% over these same recessionary periods
2. Within a 6 months immediately post-recession Silver has increased in price 7 out of 8 times by an average of +18% (blue areas on chart)
- This provides an argument for diversifying a portion of your gold or cash position into Silver late in a recession or at the end of a recession period.
- Obviously timing this would be difficult however, if you had a Gold position that increased between +7 – 10% during what you believe to be a recession period, it could be beneficial to start allocating a portion of that position to Silver based on the average +18% potential within 6 months after the recession ends. There is no guarantee of course.
The Silver Second Allocation Approach
Based on the price history of Gold and Silver over the last 8 recessions there is an argument to not hold silver at the onset and/or during the recession itself (as silver declines -9% on avg during the recession period).
At the onset and during a recession Gold has a much better record with an average return of +7.3% however, Silver can offer significant returns in the 6 months post-recession with an average return of 18%, thus as we wade closer to the end of a recession an allocation into Silver could put you on the right side of probability. No Guarantees.
The Silver Long Hold Approach
Interestingly if you check the data chart which I will share in the comments, you will see that Silvers overall performance (recession periods including the 6 months post-recession period) is positive with an average of +9.1%. In other words, if you held Silver through the recession period and the 6 months post-recession, the average return is 9.1%. Amazing what an additional 6 months of patience can achieve. This is where there is a potential argument to hold silver from the outset of a recession if you intend to hold it that 6 months post-recession.
When you check Silvers post-recession performance (6 months post-recession), it can historically increase as high as +50.6% thus a Silver allocation does offer that upside potential that Gold does not. This adds to the Silver Long Hold Approach argument however this has to be weighed against a potential -58.3% decline during the recession period (also evident on the chart as the opposite extreme).
Final Word
The safety in Gold during a recession is attractive and the post-recession potential return in silver is hard to ignore. Silver can go down or sideways when gold first starts to increase, this has been the case historically and often gold increases for 18 – 24 months before silver really starts to move and catch up (I will follow up this point with a chart).
I myself lean towards a later recession allocation to silver, lets say we get a 14 - 20% drop in silver with a 5 - 7.3% increase in gold, this could be a window to start building your smaller silver position from your gold or cash holding but for me, the silver position will always be smaller and allocated late into a recession. I want to emphasize there is no right approach, these are just considerations worth pondering about Gold and Silver portfolio allocations during recessions. The ultimate decision is up to you.
I hope both the gold and silver chart provide you with some perspective and help keep you on the right side of probability.
PUKA
DeGRAM | Silver short from kill zoneSilver is approaching the resistance level and the 50% fibo level.
The market is in a bearish trend; it's making lower lows. Price dropped from this level.
We anticipate a short-term trade from the kill zone.
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A bearish retest of #silver ? #gumus #xagtryg#silver is now on retest of broken trendline in rising channel. In this retest, if price declines, i expect more dump. NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.
#gumus su an kirmis oldugu trend kanalina tekrar girmek icin retest yapıyor, bearish retest dedigimiz bu fiyat ataginda onumuzdeki hafta basi itibariyle sert deklinasyonlar gelirse bu #xag gumus fiyati trendinde bir sure ayi piyasasi olusturabilecektir. Sadece teknik ongorudur , her zaman kendi kararlarinizi kendiniz verecek durumda olunuz. YATIRIM TAVSiYESi DEGiLDiR.
Today's update for silver 4H Hello everyone, The silver price is showing noticeable positive trading to approach our expected target of 21.95, and we remind you that exceeding this level will lead the price to achieve additional positive targets of up to 22.29 in the near term.
The expected trading range for today is between support 21.60 and Resistance 22.29
Pivot Price:21.95
Resistance Price: 22.29 & 22.45 & 22.71
support price: 21.77 & 21.60 & 21.41
The general trend expected for today: Bullish
Timeframe: 4H
SILVER - BEARISH SCENARIO 📉Today, The Silver Price Reached a Strong Resistance Level (22.51100 - 22.11245) and 50% Fibonacci Retracement Level.
So We Have a Bearish Scenario:
If The market Breaks The Higher Low (21.72533 - 21.57400) and Closes Below That,
I will Sell on Retest...
TARGET: 20.10000🎯
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Silver(XAGUSD) - Elliott Wave CountSilver(XAGUSD) - Elliott Wave Count
this is one of the possible expected moves... pls trade with caution as the count may not be reliable.
Silver - It appears that the correction wave A has been completed in the market and is expected to increase towards the Wave B target. However, the price may then decline towards Wave 2. It is important to note that if the price breaks above Wave 5, this means that the correction of ABC has already been completed, as indicated in the wxy, and is expected to advance further.
Please exercise caution when trading as this information is for educational purposes only.
TVC:SILVER MCX:SILVER1! CAPITALCOM:SILVER ACTIVTRADES:SILVER FOREXCOM:XAGUSD_PER0.1 OANDA:XAGUSD FOREXCOM:XAGUSD
DeGRAM | SILVER longSilver price went down and tested a major support zone.
Price action is likely to consolidate at that level.
The market reached the demand zone, where the price made a sharp bullish move.
Price action created an engulfing candle at the support level, an indication of potential upward momentum.
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#silver #XAG Long Term StrategySilver has broke the trend line in the megaphone channel and will there will likely be a bearish retest. If price decline comes after retest, the silver price will probably go to find the megaphone channel dip. Mid / short time , this will be a bearish movement.
But in long term , after breaking this megaphone channel, silver will meet new ATHs in Q3 2024.
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. Do your own research and always decide with your knowledge not mine or anyone else.
Silver- Bear trend is the name, sell rallies is the gameIn my Saturday video analysis, I said that Siver could drop and test the 21 zone.
XagUsd dropped hard and even exceeded my target. After the low under 21, Silver started to consolidate and recovered some losses.
The recent price action is carving a small double bottom on our chart that could lead to further gains.
However, considering the strong down pressure, I do not recommend buying into correction but selling rallies above the double bottom's neckline
A good place for searching entry signals is the zone between 21.50 and 21.80
The target could be set in the recent low zone at 20.80
Silver 1day overviewSilver fell to around $21 per ounce, the lowest in over six months, pressured by the interest rate jitters, surging bond yields, and a stronger dollar. In its latest meeting, the Fed signaled one more hike for 2023 and a slower monetary easing in 2024, which confirmed the interest rates would have to stay elevated longer, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Additionally, the ISM Manufacturing PMI rose well above market expectations to 49 in September, supporting the case for the regulator's hawkish tone. Still, silver prices remained underpinned by tight supply, the development of solar panel technologies with higher conduction needs, and hopes for an economic recovery in China after the country's manufacturing activity returned to expansion for the first time in six months.
Silver futures and options contracts are used by mining companies, fabricators of finished products, and users of silver-content industrial materials to manage their price risk. As a precious metal, silver also plays a role in investment portfolios. The largest industrial users of silver are the photographic, jewelry, and electronic industries. The biggest producers of silver are Mexico, Peru, and China followed by Australia, Chile, Bolivia, United States, Poland, and Russia.
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Silver Breaking down: Symmetrical TriangleSilver (US$/Oz) Breaking drown from a long term support trendline (22.197 levels).
Crucial support levels to look for : 21.376, 20.7-20.52 and worst case 19.945. Although if macro factors support we can see a demand uprise and a subsequent pull back to 21.376 and rally upto previous long term trendline levels.
BluetonaFX - SILVER Triangle Break SHORT IdeaHi Traders!
SILVER is approaching the trendline support of its symmetrical triangle and there is a possibility of a breakout to the downside.
Price Action 📊
There was a momentum break and close below the 20 EMA along with market swings showing lower highs and lower lows.
We are looking for a break and close below the trendline support.
Fundamental Analysis 📰
The market's demand for Silver is currently low due to current high demand for the US dollar.
Support 📉
22.232: TRENDLINE SUPPORT
Resistance 📈
22.868: PREVIOUS DAY'S HIGH
Risk ⚠️
No more than 2% of your capital.
Reward 💰
At least 4% of your capital.
Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps.
Trade safely and responsibly.
BluetonaFX
Silver: Breaking six Weeks lowSilver breaking its last 6 weeks low.
commodity broke down from its symmetrical triangle.
A pull back can be expected from 67441 levels but not to an extent to reach to triangle trendline levels
Key levels to watch :
Supports: 67441, 65222, 63453. Resistance: 72109, 74741.
Silver will show STRENGTH! Hello community!
Well, beyond to the strong Demand that we have had since end of June:
- Adding EMA 50, you'll see a long shadow trying to cross the line, showing us price change.
- Comparing to Silver Futures for December, the contract is also changing direction after going to a resistance, ths increasing its value.
- Using the DXY as a comparison, the Dollar seems to be weak after reaching again the 106.650, this is a price that shows a strong sign of a resistance for the next few times.