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US100 – Bullish Continuation Setting Up Inside the ChannelUS100 remains firmly bullish, showing consistent strength after breaking out from the prior consolidation range in mid-April. Price action has been moving cleanly within a well-defined ascending channel, supported by strong impulsive moves followed by shallow retracements. Each pullback so far has been relatively controlled, and buyers have been stepping in aggressively from clearly defined zones, which aligns with the current risk-on sentiment across tech-heavy indices. Consolidation Structure We’ve now had two solid retests of prior fair value gaps (FVGs), both of which acted as demand zones and helped fuel continuation. The first pullback dropped into a previously formed imbalance, consolidated briefly, and then launched a strong bullish leg. The second did the same, creating a layered structure of bullish continuation through efficient retracements. Each of these reactions confirms that price is respecting areas where institutional orders may have been left behind, which adds confluence to the trend’s strength. Currently, price is working on forming a third FVG within the upper half of the channel. This is developing just below recent highs and has not yet been retested, which makes it a key area of interest. If the market pulls back into that imbalance with proper structure, it could offer the next high-probability opportunity to join the trend. Bullish Scenario If price retraces into this newly forming FVG and holds, especially with a wick or lower timeframe rejection candle inside the zone, it could mark the start of the next impulse. The overall trend remains intact as long as we stay within the channel and each FVG continues to serve as valid support. Given the strength of the previous bounces and the orderly nature of this structure, any retest into this new FVG would likely lead to another push into fresh highs and a move toward the upper boundary of the channel. Bearish Scenario On the flip side, if price fails to respect this new FVG and breaks below with momentum, especially if the channel support fails at the same time, it would be a sign that buyers are losing control. In that case, we’d want to see how price interacts with the last confirmed FVG below before making any bearish assumptions. A deeper pullback into that area could still provide another long opportunity if structure holds, but any sharp momentum break through both imbalances would put the bullish trend on pause and shift focus to downside levels. Price Target and Expectations Assuming the bullish structure continues to play out, the next projected move would be a clean rally toward the top of the channel. There’s enough space left between current levels and the upper trendline to justify an entry on the next pullback, provided it lands inside the newly created FVG. The setup is fairly straightforward, let price come back into the imbalance, confirm with lower timeframe strength, and ride the continuation leg. Current Stance There’s no need to chase price here. The best scenario is waiting for a patient retest of the fresh FVG forming now. If it pulls back cleanly, holds the zone, and gives confirmation, that would be the entry. Momentum, structure, and market context are all aligned for continuation, but the trade needs to be built off a level that shows actual commitment from buyers. Conclusion US100 is holding its bullish structure well, forming clean legs within an ascending channel, and repeatedly respecting fair value gaps as demand zones. With a new imbalance forming beneath the most recent high, the setup is shaping up for another continuation play if price rotates back and holds. It’s a wait-and-see moment for now, but if the FVG gets tagged and buyers show up, this could be the next leg higher in an already strong trend. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this idea helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀 Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! 📈
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by TehThomas
47
NATGAS Resistance Ahead! Sell! Hello,Traders! NATGAS is growing sharply But the price is nearing a Strong horizontal resistance Around 3.80$ so after the Retest on Monday we will be Expecting a local bearish Correction as Gas is already Locally overbought Sell! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by TopTradingSignals
1
NZD-JPY Swing Bullish Breakout! Buy! Hello,Traders! NZD-JPY is trading in an Uptrend and the pair made A bullish breakout of the Falling resistance and the Breakout is confirmed so We are bullish biased and We will be expecting a Further bullish continuation Buy! Comment and subscribe to help us grow! Check out other forecasts below too! Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Long
by TopTradingSignals
1
AUD_JPY SHORT FROM RESISTANCE| ✅AUD_JPY will be retesting a resistance level of 93.500 soon From where I am expecting a bearish reaction With the price going down but we need To wait for a reversal pattern to form Before entering the trade, so that we Get a higher success probability of the trade SHORT🔥 ✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅ Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by ProSignalsFx
1
Ultimate Guide to Master ICT KillzonesWhy Timing Matters Just as Much as Price Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and ICT methodologies are built on the idea that markets are manipulated by large players with precision. While most traders obsess over price levels, entry models, and liquidity zones, many fail to realize that none of those matter if they happen at the wrong time. Time is not an afterthought, it's a core part of the edge. Price can show you where the move might happen, but time shows you when smart money is most likely to act. That window of action is what ICT calls the killzone. What Are Killzones? Killzones are specific time periods in the trading day when smart money typically executes large moves. These sessions have predictable volatility and institutional order flow. They are not just random hours, they coincide with major session opens and overlaps. The most relevant killzones are: London Killzone (LKO), 2 AM to 5 AM EST New York Killzone (NYKO), 7 AM to 10 AM EST New York Lunch/Dead Zone, 11:30 AM to 1 PM EST (low probability, often reversal traps) Each killzone offers unique opportunities depending on how liquidity has been engineered prior. ICT-style setups are most reliable when they form within, or directly in anticipation of, these windows. The Trap Before the Real Move Smart money loves to trap retail traders. This trap usually happens just before or early in a killzone. For example, if price takes out a key high at 2:30 AM EST (London open), many retail traders see a breakout. But those in tune with SMC see it as a classic liquidity raid, bait before the reversal. Once that external liquidity is taken, smart money shows its hand with displacement, a sudden, aggressive move in the opposite direction. This typically forms a clean imbalance (Fair Value Gap) or a breaker block. That’s your cue. If the price returns to that level within the killzone, that’s the optimal entry window. Confluence is King: Time, Liquidity, and Structure The most reliable SMC setups happen when: Liquidity is swept early into a killzone Displacement confirms the real direction during the killzone Entry happens via return to an FVG or OB created within that same session The setup might still look right if it forms outside these windows, but without proper timing, it’s often just noise or engineered liquidity to trap impatient traders. Real-World Example: NY Killzone Short NY, At 8:30 AM EST, price runs above the Asian highs, sweeping liquidity Displacement, Sharp bearish move breaks structure to the downside at 8:45 AM Entry, Price retraces into the 5M FVG at 9:10 AM Result, Clean reversal into a nice profit trageting liquidity, all within the NY session Outside of this killzone structure, the same setup likely would have chopped or failed. Common Mistakes Traders Make With Time Chasing price outside of killzones, Setup might look good, but volume is thin and no follow-through comes Assuming all killzones are equal, London setups are often cleaner in structure, while NY has more manipulation around news Forcing trades in NY lunch, Midday reversals do happen, but they’re lower probability. If you're not already in a position by 11 AM EST, it's often best to wait for the next day The Discipline Edge Most traders overtrade not because they lack setups, but because they don’t filter based on time. By only trading when price interacts with your levels during active killzones, you immediately reduce the number of bad trades and increase your focus on meaningful opportunities. Good setups are rare. Good setups in the right timing window are even rarer. That’s where consistency comes from. Final Thoughts Time is not optional. In SMC and ICT, it’s not enough to have the level, you need the timing. Killzones are your filter, your edge, and your context for every trade. Once you understand how time and price move together, and stop treating every moment on the chart equally, your trading will start to reflect the true flow of smart money. Wait for time, wait for price, then strike. ___________________________________ Thanks for your support! If you found this guide helpful or learned something new, drop a like 👍 and leave a comment, I’d love to hear your thoughts! 🚀 Make sure to follow me for more price action insights, free indicators, and trading strategies. Let’s grow and trade smarter together! 📈
CAPITALCOM:US100Education
by TehThomas
68
What Is SMT Divergence, and How Can You Use It in Trading?What Is SMT Divergence, and How Can You Use It in Trading? SMT divergence, or Smart Money Technique divergence, is a concept used by traders to analyse imbalances in correlated markets. By identifying when price movements deviate between related instruments, traders can uncover potential shifts in market momentum, often linked to institutional activity. This article explores what SMT divergence is, how SMT divergence trading works, and its practical applications. What Is SMT Divergence? SMT divergence, short for Smart Money Technique divergence, refers to a specific type of price discrepancy between two correlated financial instruments. Part of the Inner Circle Trader (ICT) methodology, this divergence is often interpreted as a sign of institutional or "smart money" activity, as it highlights potential inefficiencies or imbalances in the market. Here’s how an ICT SMT divergence works: correlated instruments—like EUR/USD and GBP/USD in forex, or major stock indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ—typically move in the same direction under normal market conditions. SMT divergence occurs when one instrument makes a higher high or lower low, while the other fails to follow suit. This inconsistency suggests that buying or selling pressure may be uneven across these markets, often caused by larger market participants adjusting their positions. For example, if EUR/USD forms a new high, while GBP/USD lags behind and fails to break its previous high. This divergence could indicate waning momentum in one pair, hinting at a potential reversal or shift in the overall market structure. Traders analysing SMT divergence often see these moments as key opportunities to assess whether institutional players might be involved. To identify an SMT divergence, you can monitor two correlated assets’ charts and observe discrepancies. Also, there are SMT divergence indicators for MT4, MT5, and TradingView available online that can automate the process. The Core Components of SMT Divergence SMT divergence relies on three key components: correlated instruments, divergence between price movements, and the involvement of institutional players. Understanding these elements is crucial for applying this concept. 1. Correlated Instruments At the heart of SMT divergence is the relationship between correlated markets. These are instruments that typically move in tandem due to shared economic drivers. For instance, in forex, pairs like EUR/USD and GBP/USD often exhibit similar trends because they’re influenced by the strength of the US dollar, as well as their close regional ties and trade relationships. In equities, indices like the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 often align because they reflect broader market sentiment and contain overlapping stocks. 2. Divergence in Price Movements The divergence occurs when these typically correlated instruments fail to move in sync. For example, one instrument may reach a higher high, while the other stalls or even reverses. This mismatch is more than just noise—it can signal a deeper imbalance in the market, often linked to uneven supply and demand dynamics. It’s these price discrepancies that traders scrutinise to identify potential turning points. 3. Institutional Activity One of the reasons SMT divergence is so closely watched is its potential link to smart money behaviour. Institutions often use correlated instruments to mask their actions, creating subtle imbalances that only become apparent through careful analysis. For instance, when one correlated pair lags, it might reflect deliberate accumulation or distribution by larger players. How Traders Analyse SMT Divergence Analysing SMT divergence helps in understanding the nuanced relationship between correlated instruments and interpreting these imbalances correctly. Unlike leading correlations—such as oil influencing the Canadian dollar—SMT divergence doesn’t rely on one asset consistently driving the other. Instead, it focuses on shifts in momentum where neither instrument is the leader, but their combined behaviour hints at potential market moves. Identifying Divergence Traders start by observing price action in two correlated instruments or timeframes. SMT divergence becomes apparent when one instrument forms a higher high or lower low, while the other fails to do so. For example, if EUR/USD makes a higher high, but GBP/USD stalls below its previous peak, this inconsistency could signal fading bullish momentum in the broader market. The key is that neither asset leads; instead, the divergence itself provides the signal. Some common correlations traders use include: - Forex Pairs: EUR/USD and GBP/USD USD/JPY and USD/CHF DXY and USD/CAD - Cryptocurrencies*: BTC/USD and ETH/USD - Equity Indices: S&P 500 and NASDAQ FTSE 100 and DAX - Treasuries: US 10-Year Treasury Yield and USD/JPY - Commodities: Brent Crude and WTI Crude Oil Interpreting Divergence at Extremes SMT divergence is particularly significant when it occurs at market highs or lows. When divergence appears at highs—such as one instrument making a higher high while the other fails—it often signals a potential bearish reversal in the stronger instrument. Conversely, at lows, if one makes a lower low while the other holds firm, it may indicate a potential bullish reversal in the weaker one. This imbalance highlights where momentum might shift. Adding Context Traders rarely rely on an SMT divergence strategy alone. They often look for supporting evidence, such as volume analysis, market structure shifts, or order flow data, to confirm the signal. For instance, divergence combined with signs of institutional selling near a high could strengthen the case for a bearish move. SMT Divergence in Different Market Conditions SMT divergence behaves differently depending on market conditions, offering traders insights that vary between trending and ranging environments. Its effectiveness hinges on the context in which it appears, so understanding how it adapts to different scenarios is key. Trending Markets In trending markets, SMT divergence often signals potential reversals or pauses in momentum. For example, in a strong uptrend, divergence at a new high (where one correlated instrument makes a higher high while the other does not) can indicate waning buying pressure. This inconsistency might suggest that institutional players are beginning to reduce their positions or shift market direction. A similar principle applies in downtrends: divergence at a fresh low, where one instrument breaks lower while the other doesn’t, could signal that bearish momentum is losing steam. Traders often use these moments to reassess their analysis and consider the possibility of a reversal or pullback within the trend. Ranging Markets In a range-bound environment, SMT divergence takes on a different role. Rather than hinting at trend reversals, it often highlights potential breakouts or false moves. For instance, during a consolidation phase, if one correlated instrument makes a sharp move outside the range while the other stays contained, it may signal that the breakout is unsustainable and a reversal back into the range is likely. Alternatively, if both instruments diverge significantly at the edges of the range, it could suggest that smart money is accumulating or distributing positions in preparation for a breakout. Different Asset Classes SMT divergence isn’t limited to one market type. In forex, it often reveals imbalances caused by macroeconomic drivers like central bank policies. In equities, it can signal sector rotation or institutional adjustments. Commodities, particularly oil or gold, may show divergence influenced by supply and demand dynamics. Limitations and Common Misconceptions While SMT divergence is a powerful tool for analysing market imbalances, it’s important to understand its limitations and avoid common misconceptions. Misinterpreting divergence can lead to flawed decisions, especially if it’s viewed in isolation or without proper context. Limitations - False Signals: Not all divergences indicate institutional activity or meaningful shifts in the market. Low liquidity or erratic price movements can create divergence that doesn’t hold significance. - Context Dependency: SMT divergence requires a solid understanding of market conditions. Its reliability decreases in highly volatile or choppy environments where correlations break down temporarily. - Not a Standalone Tool: Relying solely on SMT divergence can be risky. Traders use it alongside other forms of analysis, such as market structure or volume data. Common Misconceptions - Always Linked to Institutional Activity: Not every instance of SMT divergence involves smart money. Divergences can also result from retail trading activity or macroeconomic events. - Predicting Market Direction: SMT divergence doesn’t guarantee outcomes; it highlights imbalances. Further analysis is needed to evaluate whether the market will reverse, continue, or consolidate. - Universal Applicability: While it works across various markets, not all instruments are equally suitable for SMT divergence due to differences in liquidity or drivers. Practical Applications of SMT Divergence SMT divergence is a versatile analytical method that traders use to refine their strategies and deepen their understanding of market dynamics. Here’s how it’s typically applied in practice: Identifying Market Turning Points One of the most common uses of SMT divergence is spotting potential reversals. When divergence appears at key highs or lows, it often signals that momentum is shifting. When combined with other common trading tools, such as support and resistance, as well as ICT methodology concepts like order blocks and fair value gaps, this can be used to time entries or adjust risk exposure. Potentially Enhancing Risk Management SMT divergence can potentially enhance risk management by offering early warnings about changes in market conditions. If divergence aligns with other factors—such as weakening volume or significant resistance/support levels—it can serve as a signal to tighten stops or reduce position sizes, depending on the trader’s broader approach. At the same time, it can also provide clear boundaries for setting stop losses. If a trader has confidence that a reversal in one asset is likely due to an SMT divergence, then a stop loss can be placed immediately after the maximum or minimum of the divergence. The Bottom Line The SMT divergence is a valuable tool for understanding market imbalances and spotting potential turning points. By combining it with other analysis methods, traders can gain deeper insights into price action. FAQ What Does Divergence Mean in Trading? Divergence in trading refers to a mismatch between the price action of an asset and a technical indicator or between two correlated instruments. It often signals a potential change in trend, as the imbalance suggests a shift in market momentum. What Is SMT in Trading? SMT in trading stands for Smart Money Technique. SMT divergence is one of the ICT trading concepts. It focuses on identifying market imbalances that may reflect the activity of institutional traders, seen through divergence between correlated instruments. What Does SMT Divergence Mean? The SMT divergence meaning refers to an occasion when two correlated instruments fail to move in sync. One can make a higher high while the other does not or one can make a lower low while the other doesn’t. This indicates potential smart money involvement and signals a possible trend shift. What Is an Example of SMT Divergence? A common example is in forex, where EUR/USD forms a higher high, but GBP/USD does not. This divergence could suggest fading bullish momentum, signalling a possible reversal in EUR/USD. What Is the Strongest Divergence Indicator? While SMT divergence itself is powerful, traders often combine it with indicators like RSI or volume profiles for added confirmation. The strongest signals come from divergence paired with a broader market context. *Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1