Get started

SMC

EURCAD Approaching Major Resistance — Potential Sell OpportunityOANDA:EURCAD is approaching a significant resistance zone, a level where sellers have consistently stepped in, leading to notable bearish reversals in the past. This area is marked by strong selling interest and historical price reactions, increasing the likelihood of bearish move if sellers regain control. The current price action suggests that if the pair confirms resistance through signals like bearish engulfing candles, long upper wicks, or increased selling volume, we could see a downward move toward 1.49830 — a logical target based on previous price behavior and market structure. However, if the price breaks above this zone and sustains, the bearish outlook may be invalidated, opening the door for further upside. Just my take on support and resistance zones—not financial advice. Always confirm your setups and trade with solid risk management. Best of luck!
Short
by TrendDiva
2
EURAUD at Key Resistance Zone – Will Sellers Step In?OANDA:EURAUD has reached a significant resistance zone, marked by prior price rejections, suggesting strong selling interest. This area has previously acted as a key supply zone, increasing the likelihood of a bearish reversal if sellers regain control. If the price confirms resistance within this zone through bearish price action (e.g., wicks or rejection candles), we could see a move toward 1.66260, which aligns with a logical target based on recent structure. However, if the price breaks and holds above this resistance area, the bearish outlook may be invalidated, potentially opening the door for further upside. Just my take on support and resistance zones—not financial advice. Always confirm your setups and trade with solid risk management. Best of luck!
Short
by TrendDiva
33
AUDCHF at Key Demand Zone – Potential Rebound?OANDA:AUDCHF has reached a key demand zone, where buyers have historically stepped in to push prices higher. This area has previously acted as a significant support level, making it a crucial point to watch for potential reversal signals. If price shows clear bullish confirmation, such as rejection wicks or bullish candlestick patterns, we could see a rebound toward the 0.56550level, aligning with a potential short-term uptrend. However, a break and close below this support zone would invalidate the bullish outlook and could lead to further declines. Traders should wait for confirmation before entering long positions to avoid potential false breakouts. Do you agree with this analysis? Share your thoughts below!
Long
by DanieIM
1
CADCHF at Major Support Level – Bullish Rebound ExpectedOANDA:CADCHF is approaching a significant support zone, marked by prior price rejections and strong buying pressure. This area has historically acted as a key demand zone, indicating the potential for a pullback if buyers regain control. The current market structure suggests that if the price confirms a rejection from this support zone, there is a high likelihood of an upward move. I anticipate that if rejection occurs, the market may head higher toward the 0.62870 level, which represents a logical target within the current market structure. If you agree with this analysis or have additional insights, feel free to share your thoughts in the comments!
Long
by DanieIM
1
EURUSD 28 Feb 2025 W9 -Intraday Analysis- US PCE Day! EOM FlowsThis is my Intraday analysis on FOREXCOM:EURUSD for 28 Feb 2025 W9 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following: Market Sentiment 4H Chart Analysis 15m Chart Analysis Market Sentiment Heavy economic news: EU : German Prelim CPI m/m US : the most awaited report Core PCE Price Index m/m - Personal Spending m/m - Chicago PMI The market sentiment detailed as following: Trump's Tariff Announcements: President Trump's announcements regarding new and increased tariffs significantly impacted market sentiment. Uncertainty surrounding trade relations with various countries, including the European Union, Mexico, and Canada, created volatility. These tariff announcements created fears of trade wars, which negatively impacted investor confidence. Economic Data: Reports of declining new home sales in the U.S. and concerns about overall economic health contributed to market unease. Also, the release of various economic data points, and the anticipation of the PCE inflation data release, influenced market movement. NVIDIA's Performance and AI Competition: While NVIDIA beat earnings estimates, concerns about increased competition from Chinese AI companies, particularly DeepSeek, led to a significant drop in its stock price, impacting the broader tech sector. Geopolitical Uncertainty: Geopolitical factors, such as the removal of Chevron's oil license in Venezuela, contributed to fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly oil. Bank of Japan governor Ueda's statements regarding the uncertainty of US policies also added to uncertainty. Additional Factors: Geopolitical Resolution: A sudden de-escalation in a prior crisis (e.g., eased tensions in a conflict zone) might have reduced safe-haven demand for gold, though this was secondary to dollar strength. Technical Factors: End-of-month rebalancing or options expirations could have amplified downward moves. The interplay of a hawkish Fed, a resilient dollar, and risk aversion triggered broad-based declines. The overarching theme was a recalibration of investor expectations around tighter monetary policy and its implications for global growth and asset valuations. 4H Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bullish (Reached Swing Extreme Demand) 🔹INT Bearish (Adjusted my INT structure to align with the previous Bullish move) 🔹Complex Swing INT Structure 2️⃣ 🔹As the Swing is Bullish, expectations were set to continue Bullish targeting the Weak Swing High and create a Bullish BOS after the Deep Pullback to the Swing Demand. 🔹During the Swing Bullish Continuation after the Deep Pullback, INT Structure kept holding Bullish to fulfill the Bullish continuation phase. 🔹With price reaching the Swing Extreme Premium zone and the expectation of breaking the Weak Swing High, price failed 2 times and with the 3rd attempt it created a Bearish iBOS. This indicated that the Swing INT structure is Complex and the Daily/Weekly TFs are still in play. 3️⃣ 🔹After the Bearish iBOS, we expect PB, there is no clear POI for price to initiate PB except the Liq. at 1.03730 and 1.03173 before mitigating the last clear 4H Demand. 🔹It’s not a must to reach these Liq. points as we already in a Daily partially mitigated Demand Zone and maybe some orders reside there. But Will need LTFs to show clear Bullish OF to confirm the 4H Bearish INT structure is staring the PB. 🔹Expectations is set to Bearish continuation till we have a clear Bullish OF. Also, keep in mind that Daily and Weekly are still Bearish and we may target the 4H Strong Swing Low to fulfill the Daily and Weekly move. 15m Chart Analysis 1️⃣ 🔹Swing Bearish 🔹INT Bearish 🔹Swing Pullback 2️⃣ 🔹Swing structure turned Bearish with confirmed BOS. And after BOS we expect PB phase to start. 🔹We didn’t mitigate any HP POI/Liq. to initiate the Swing PB phase. 🔹Will need a clear INT Structure shift to Bullish with momentum in order to play the PB phase otherwise price will continue Bearish till the sweep of Liq. on the 4H TF at 1.03730 and 1.03173 before tapping the clear 4H Demand. 3️⃣ 🔹Expectations is set to continue Bearish with cautious from the Swing PB phase that can start at any time. 🔹Also keep in mind the End of Month Flows and PCE report today.
by Amr-Sadek
Crude Oil - The Manipulation of Trend LinesIn this example on Crude Oil I give some insight into how trendlines and traditional support & resistance theories may be used by "smart money" for the purposes of facilitating their positions via inducing liquidity. Basically, trendlines are drawn along the highs or lows of price movements and help to identify the direction and strength of a trend. They serve as visual guidelines for traders, highlighting potential turning points or continuation patterns. Support and resistance levels are areas where the price historically finds a floor or ceiling, leading many market participants to place their entry and exit orders around these zones. Because these levels are based on historical price action, they hold significant psychological value among retail traders. The Mechanism of Liquidity Manipulation Liquidity Pools and Stop Loss Clusters: Retail traders often cluster their stop losses near prominent support or resistance levels. Smart money is aware of these liquidity pools and can engineer price moves to trigger these stops. For example, by intentionally nudging the price through a known support level, institutional players can trigger a cascade of stop-loss orders. This “stop run” injects a burst of liquidity into the market, which can then be absorbed as positions are liquidated at less favorable prices for retail traders. False Breakouts and Reversals: Another common tactic involves creating false breakouts. A price move that breaks above a resistance level (or below a support level) might initially appear to signal a new trend. However, smart money can deliberately drive prices just past these technical barriers to trigger stop-loss orders and entry orders. Once sufficient liquidity is collected from the triggered orders, they may reverse the move. This reversal traps traders who anticipated a sustained breakout, leaving them with positions that quickly turn against them. Exploiting Herd Behavior and Market Sentiment: The widespread reliance on technical analysis means that many traders have similar expectations about where price will reverse or accelerate. This collective mindset, or herd behavior, creates predictable zones of liquidity. Smart money can capitalize on these self-fulfilling prophecies by anticipating the mass reaction around key trendlines and support/resistance levels. They use this insight to position themselves ahead of the crowd, executing large trades that move the market in their favor. Strategic Benefits for Smart Money By manipulating these common technical levels, smart money participants can: Maximize Efficiency: Accumulate or distribute large positions with minimal market impact by tapping into pre-existing liquidity pools. Control Market Direction: Influence short-term price movements to create advantageous conditions for larger trades. Enhance Risk-Reward Profiles: Trigger stop losses at critical junctures, effectively reducing their own risk while capitalizing on forced exits from retail traders. Conclusion While trendlines and support/resistance are invaluable tools for assessing market structure and potential price movements, they also serve as instruments for liquidity manipulation by experienced market participants. The predictable nature of stop-loss placements and entry orders around these levels creates opportunities for smart money to trigger cascades of orders, generating liquidity in their favor. As a result, retail traders must be aware of these dynamics and consider them when planning their trades, acknowledging that what appears to be a genuine breakout may, in fact, be a carefully orchestrated move to capture liquidity. This nuanced understanding highlights the double-edged nature of technical analysis tools in modern trading. By appreciating both their utility and potential for manipulation, traders can better navigate the complex interplay between market psychology and institutional strategy.
TVC:USOIL
by Road_2_Funded
1
GBPNZD at Key Resistance: Rebound Toward 2.20986?OANDA:GBPNZD has reached a significant resistance zone, marked by historical price rejections and strong selling pressure. This area has previously acted as a key supply zone, increasing the probability of a bearish reaction if sellers regain control. The current market structure suggests that if price confirms a rejection from this resistance zone, we could see a potential drop toward the 2.20986 level. This level aligns with previous price reactions and serves as a logical downside target. However, a break and close above this resistance zone would invalidate the bearish bias and could signal further upside continuation. Traders should look for bearish confirmation signals such as rejection wicks, bearish engulfing patterns, or increased selling volume before considering short positions. This setup reflects the potential for a pullback after a strong bullish move, supported by historical price action and market structure. Do you agree with this analysis? Share your thoughts in the comments!
Short
by DanieIM
1
AUDUSD at Key Demand Zone – Potential Rebound?OANDA:AUDUSD has reached a significant demand zone, marked by historical price reactions and strong buying pressure. The recent decline has brought the price into this key support area, increasing the likelihood of a potential bullish reaction. If buyers step in and confirm support within this zone, we could see a rebound toward the 0.63260 level, aligning with a corrective move after the recent sell-off. However, a break below this demand zone would invalidate the bullish bias and could signal further downside continuation. Traders should watch for bullish confirmation signals such as rejection wicks, bullish engulfing patterns, or increased buying volume before considering long positions. Do you agree with this analysis? Let me know your thoughts!
Long
by DanieIM
1
NAS100 at Key Support – Bullish Rebound Ahead?PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 is currently testing a major demand zone, which has previously acted as strong support. The recent bearish move has brought price into this key area, increasing the probability of a potential bullish reversal. If buyers step in and defend this zone, we could see a bounce toward the 21,655 level, aligning with a short-term recovery from the current dip. However, a break and close below this support zone would invalidate the bullish bias and could lead to further declines. Traders should look for bullish confirmation signals such as rejection wicks, bullish engulfing candles, or a shift in momentum before considering long positions. Do you agree with this analysis? Drop your thoughts below!
ICMARKETS:USTECLong
by DanieIM
1