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Snp500

YEP! ALL-TIME HIGHS BABY! You're welcome! :) Pretty simple... After identifying a candle with buying pressure, last week I announced that we would very likely be hitting new all-time highs simply by following the N# pattern that was unfolding at that very moment with precision. VALIDATIONS ARE THE KEY TO PREDICTING A MARKET MOVE. But what do I mean? Here’s a recap of the moves I got in 1 week: #1 It gave me a breakout. #2 It gave me an exact retracement to my order block area that I was looking for. #3 It gave me the volume I needed to see. #4 It gave me a volume candle with buying pressure. #5 It gave me an immediate bullish structure. #6 The "N3" pattern is being fulfilled precisely. How many validations do I have so far? 6 Validations!!!! Don’t you think we’re in a bullish scenario where, with all these validations being met exactly, we could see a new extreme, breaking new all-time highs? OF COURSE WE ARE! The more validations you have in an analysis, the more likely the scenario you’re looking for will be fulfilled correctly. Now... Going back to SPY, all-time highs are uncharted territory! We must be very cautious, and as soon as the retracement begins, I’ll start my analysis again. Best regards, and I hope this mini-lesson helps fine-tune your price analysis process. Thanks for supporting my analysis. Best regards.
AMEX:SPYLong
by RocketMike111
Combined US Equities Breakout late OctoberVery quickly, the expected breakdown did not happen, and this week saw the an across the board bullish breakout. Noted the breakout is long in the teeth (old and late) and while bullish, it is not strong nor convincingly sustainable. Reminiscent of this expectation is the MACD and VolDiv looking lackluster. Expected top marked, and after 21 Oct needs a review... that would be the projected resistance for a stronger pullback. Bullish for now and the week ahead. Enjoy, make hay while the sun shines!
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Auguraltrader
#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 10.06 - 10.11Last Week : Sunday Globex held the Edge after open which gave us an attempt at above VAL into Mondays RTH Close. We pushed above the distribution balance, consolidated under next ranges VAL and sold back to Balance low. We spent the whole week filling out that area under the Edge with sells into VAH but we never got clear acceptance under 730s which is what was needed for any more downside from there, instead we would look under distribution balance low and come back towards the middle. After getting no continuation lower we got short covering on Friday before the weekend which drove prices back to balance top with a close over the Edge. This Week : Close over the Edge could be seen as strength and could bring in more buyers if we hold over it or at least over 780s, but we have to be careful over 800s because until we accept over VAL and start transacting inside next ranges Value then price may want to keep coming back inside and under the Edge of current HTF Range which is 5772 - 5650+/-. If we do get a push above but again fail to hold/get over VAL then we would look for a return back into the Edge and from there possible sells into the Supply towards balance low/VAH. IF we do return back into/under the Edge and will have enough supply built up which may take some time this week to built up we could attempt a push into lower Value and that's an IF as we may have another sort of inside week inside the distribution balance. For strength to come in and start thinking of higher prices from 800s we would need to start holding over the Edge and start transacting over VAL over 830s until then we can stay around distribution balance building Supply to bring back inside lower Value cost basis to fill the buyers there, may still need time to build up for that. Until then balance.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HollowMn
Predictive Correlation the SG10Y Bond Yields on S&P500I have posted about this correlation previously. Perhaps this time it might be clearer to see... This uncanny correlation between the SG10Y Govt Bond Yields as a leading indicator for the S&P500 was noticed some time ago, and tested since. As shown, the major turning points were seen in trend changes of the SG10Y GBonds first, before the S&P500 reacted. The vertical time markings show when you would short or long depending on the trend breakouts of the SG10Y GBonds (see lower panel, blue line), Comcomitantly, comparing what happens from that point, you can see the S&P500 in the upper panel with yellow line. The lowest panel is the MACD... and this shows the correlated pattern of a (lagging) technical indicator. Since 2023, there are at least six instances with 100% hit rate. Now... that brings us to TODAY. It appears that we are given advance warning of the next couple of months. For now, there should be a quick pop up to the very recent high followed by a failure of support in the S&P500; and then the expected trends should play out...
TVC:SG10YShort
by Auguraltrader
"All-Time Highs" Finally! New Channel Unlocked ! what's next? Finally, we are at "All-Time Highs" and have unlocked a New Channel. What will happen next? Let’s just let the price follow its course. Last week, we correctly predicted the price movement by creating an "N3" and landing in the order block as support to gain upward momentum with the recent movements the price has made, we have unlocked a new upward channel in which we will be monitoring the price movement in the coming weeks (Yellow Channel). Here, we only need to focus on two things: 1. We can see that the last candle is an "Inside Candle." An inside bar can be bullish or bearish, depending on its context within price action. If it forms within a downtrend, it can be considered bearish, indicating a possible continuation. If it forms within an uptrend, it can be considered bullish, suggesting a possible continuation of the uptrend. (Look up this important candlestick pattern on Google.) In this case, the last two candles were bearish, so we might consider that the market could either drop or bounce again in our order block to continue the uptrend. This is the scenario I will be expecting if we have a bearish market on Monday. Now, if the price falls to the order block zone, notice how it will also respect the support of the yellow channel. This could mark the beginning of a bullish sequence. 2. Its Simple, the price stays within the yellow channel and follows an upward and orderly sequence. Thank you for supporting my analysis, and be very cautious when we are at all-time highs. The price can be highly unpredictable, so always make sure to mark your channels and consider institutional movements of supply and demand. Best regards.
AMEX:SPYLong
by RocketMike111
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Long to area 5791 (Wave 3).Dear colleagues, it seems that the price continues the upward movement in the wave “3” of the higher and lower order. This means that two scenarios are possible: 1) I expect a small correction to the area of 50% Fibonacci level 5550, then continuation of the upward movement. 2) Price will continue the upward movement in wave “1”, possibly immediately to the area of 5791. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Hellena_Trade
9
The U.S. Markets are likely to have one last push before....The U.S. markets have been inflated to the point of near exhaustion, propped up by nothing more than a money printer that goes brrr... brrrr... brrrrrrrrrrr. However, this seemingly never-ending run is coming to an end. Trump will most likely be elected president again. His first term (45) and his second term (47) will likely mark the greatest market crash of all time—the end of the everything bubble! 4 + 5 = 9; 4 + 7 = 11; 9 + 11 = 20. They will likely prop the market up until his administration takes power, then... Shorting these markets will be the opportunity of a lifetime! Good luck, and always use a stop loss!
SP:SPX
by MetaShackle
Combined US Indexes - Bullish Flip?Previously though that there would be some volatility and a bearish trend forming with a previous low revisited, BUT NO... volatility popped and then so did the indexes. They bounced to meet the trendline resistance to end the week. In the same effort, closed the Gap as well. Meanwhile, MACD and VolDiv are turning upwards in support. Current flip to Bullish Confirms with breakout of trendline (after Gap closure) Watch these week's price action...
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Auguraltrader
Hey SPY lovers, look at all that green! Do you believe me now?We are undoubtedly in a scenario where the price is showing a lot of strength. As we can see, the price previously attempted to break all-time highs but encountered an institutional liquidity block, trying twice and creating a double top before making a pullback for days ! This second attempt to break the all-time high will be very important because, after the pullback, we were able to forecast the limit where the price would bounce back. Just one candle with a lot of volume and buying pressure was enough to realize that the price would reverse at $544. If you've been following this analysis for weeks or months, you'll notice that everything is playing out according to our price action and institutional analysis. Now, we just need to wait for that ATH, and I think this time will be different, especially considering that we're in election months, and the current president's political party wants the economy to look strong before the elections. So, we can expect a bull run from now until November. Thank you for supporting my analysis, and if you've benefited from it and made profits, congratulations, I'm happy for you. Best regards.
AMEX:SPYLong
by RocketMike111
SPYLOVERS ! The Pullback is here ! What to do next.... Good morning everyone and welcome to another weekend session. For those following the SPY, we can see that the institutional rejection did indeed occur with a double top, and it was unable to break the Al Time High (ATH), leading to a pullback that we had already predicted weeks ago. The question is: How far will the pullback go? I have two levels: a liquidation zone limit and a historical demand zone. Warning: DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CATCH A FALLING KNIFE ! The idea here is to let the price do what it needs to with this drop. Once it reaches one of these two zones, we will start to see bullish volumetric candles indicating the beginning of an upward trend. For now, this analysis has been unfolding as we have been forecasting the movement. Let the price fall, and be very alert to determine whether this is just a small pullback or a longer one. We already know where the price will likely land. Sending greetings and thank you for supporting my study.
AMEX:SPY
by RocketMike111
Double-Top In PlayAs expected, SPY double-top looks to be playing out. I don't expect us to drop much lower than the pink ascending trendline. Maybe we'll touch that 200 dma before our full send. Let me remind you that the pink ascending tl is the neckline of a large cup and handle pattern on the bi-weekly, the target of which remains 650-700. This is still in play on the longer timeframe and as long as we don't break below the pink tl with confirmation on the weekly, I will start to buy back at or around the pink tl and down to the 200 dma. Batting 1000% thus far and hoping to keep it perfect.
AMEX:SPYShort
by stewdamus
1
Combined US Indexes - Warning Trend Change to DOWNFrom the last post, there was a Gap closure and breakout... well, almost. What happened was a stall after the gap closure. This is the first indication that something is not right and a strong resistance is in the way. After more than a week, a decisive down candle wiped out two prior days of bullish candles, and reopened the earlier gap. This by itself is very bearish... first on the candlestick pattern, and next on the reopening of the gap. MACD have crossed under the signal line, in support of the bearish undertone. Now, we wait for a full reopening of the gap, meaning a further breakdown of the supports. By simple projection, the down wave from mid July to August (blue arrow) is projected from the last lower high in mid-August. This brings the target to mid-September, at an old critical support level of 780. Oddly enough, am expecting this to happen by the end of next week.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Auguraltrader
BTC Retracement to $30k levels. After US elections pump to $90k.Bitcoin appears to be forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern on the larger timeframes. A potential drop to the $28k–$32k range could mirror the corrections seen in previous bull runs, creating a textbook inverse head and shoulders pattern. A price target of $90k is derived from the measured move of the previous post-drop rally, further supporting this bullish scenario. Additionally, a smaller inverse head and shoulders pattern, formed between January 2022 and January 2024, has already played out, reaching its projected target. This reinforces the reliability of the pattern in the current market context. Several key factors suggest that a pullback to the $30k region could be highly bullish: 1. The large inverse head and shoulders pattern suggests a potential move to $90k from $32k. 2. The 200 SMMA is expected to align with the GETTEX:29K –$30k range when BTC reaches that level. 3. The 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level is at $27.7k, with the golden zone around $36.5k. 4. On the weekly chart, the only occurrence of the "Three White Soldiers" pattern is within this price range. If no weekly candle closes below $30,250, it would be another strong bullish signal. 5. The previous bull market correction aligns with a current target of approximately $37k. 6. Notably, BTC has yet to experience a significant correction during this bull run. In summary, a dip to around $28k, followed by a weekly close within the bullish Three White Soldiers price range (above $30k), would likely signal a continuation of the bullish trend and me opening a long term long. However, the upcoming FOMC meeting on September 17-18th could introduce volatility. If rate cuts occur as expected, this has historically been a bearish event. Coupled with current global developments, it suggests BTC might be in a bear phase that could extend until after the 2024 U.S. presidential elections. If former President Donald Trump isn't re-elected, the current bull run might be at risk. The U.S. government has discussed unrealized gains taxes for millionaires, which could drive wealthy investors away from risky assets like crypto. Additionally, the market's sentiment appears overly bullish, with many top traders providing optimistic analyses despite bearish signals. This often precedes a market reversal. I'm keen to hear your thoughts and ideas on this analysis—please share your perspectives!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Achilly
SPY LOVERS ALMOST ATH AGAIN!! But be very Careful read this... We are very close to the price reaching our institutional order block in the supply zone, where we could expect a small liquidity rejection upon touching it. According to my forecast, the maximum rejection would be at 549.71, no more! This is a historically significant zone where the price has shown important impulses and patterns. Additionally, the price is moving with a lot of volume and buying strength. We are very, very close to reaching new all-time highs, but the big question is: Will it surpass the all-time highs this week? In my opinion, it might, but we must be very cautious as it could be an institutional liquidity trap leading to a strong pullback. So, we need to stay alert to any movement it makes. Thank you for supporting my analysis; so far, everything has been going according to the forecast. Best regards.
AMEX:SPYLong
by RocketMike111
8
Preparing For A Potential Double-Top HereTraders, As you all know, the SPY has been moving EXACTLY as anticipated by me the last two years. And that worries me. Don't get me wrong, I have thoroughly enjoy the profits that have come with getting it right, but what we have to be careful about when doing so well is over-confidence. Because if we don't take a couple of steps back and say to ourselves, "I could get it wrong this time", then we could likely get it wrong. The market loves to humble cocky traders. And that is why I have sold half of my longs once again ...just in case I could be wrong. So, you can all read my previous posts and calls on the SPY, but for new readers, let me just catch you up with a brief summary to give you some context. About 2 years ago, after the market had dropped and many investors thought it would continue down, I came under the persuasion that it would soon reverse. Though, I am a rookie when it comes to Elliot Wave, I had noticed some other contrarian traders and chartists had begun to explain from a fundamental basis why it would move up soon. These same investors began plotting a likely blow-off top scenario based on fundamentals, market psychology, and Elliot Wave theory. It made sense to me but I was hesitant to go full in based on this information alone. I began reading more about market fundamentals and psychology and learned that most of what I read actually supported the idea of a blow-off top. Then I spotted another pattern on the daily chart (an inverse head and shoulders pattern) which strengthened the theory even more. This pattern gave me my SPY target of 570. You can still see that Previous Target outlined here on my chart. We nearly reached that target. Missed it by a few dollars. It was there that I sold half. And right on time. The Japanese carry trade flash crashed the markets and down we went. As we were nearing the 200 DMA, I spotted a new bullish pattern on the weekly chart. This was a Cup and Handle. I bought back in near the bottom recognizing that this blow-off top was probably not at an end ...yet. Fast forward to today. We are once again nearing my Previous Target of SPY 570 and though we could move even higher (and I honestly believe we will), I want to prepare for a scenario where I could be wrong. You can see from the chart here that we may also be forming a bearish double-top or M-Pattern. If this is the case, it is wise for me to prepare for another drop soon. Thus, I have once again, sold half. Should the M-Pattern play out, I will likely buy back in around the 200 DMA (wherever this happens to be at the time) because I still believe that Cup and Handle pattern on the 2-week chart will play out and that the blow-off top will not end until we reach 650-700 on the SPY. Obviously, this forcast could change based upon significant geo-political/global events. But for now, this is how I see it going. Scenario 2: If we do not drop and that M-Pattern becomes invalidated. I will also buy back in should we exceed my previous target on the chart. In either case, updates will follow.
AMEX:SPY
by stewdamus