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ES Futures — Week Ahead Playbook (Aug 11–15)Macro Drivers to Watch Tue Aug 12 @ 8:30 AM ET — CPI (July) Key inflation print; expect sharp vol expansion in NY AM. Wed Aug 13 @ 2:00 PM ET — FOMC Minutes Insight into Fed’s July 29–30 meeting tone. Fri Aug 15 @ 8:30 AM ET — PPI (July) + Retail Sales (July) Two high-impact releases within minutes. Geopolitics: US–China tensions over AI chip export controls & Russian oil tariffs Possible Alaska summit with Trump, Putin, Zelenskyy Friday. Bias & Structure Trend (30m / 15m / 5m): Still bullish but pressing into 6415–6425 supply / weak-high zone. Demand below: ~6410, ~6397, ~6386, ~6374. Supply above: ~6425, ~6442–6446, ~6460–6465. Setup 1 — Post-CPI Continuation Long Trigger: First 5m close above 6422–6425 after CPI, then retest holds. Entry: 6423–6427 (retest). Invalidation: 5m close < 6418. Targets: TP1: 6432–6435 TP2: 6442–6446 TP3: 6460–6465 Notes: Needs bullish displacement, BOS hold, and Bookmap absorption on retest. Setup 2 — Post-CPI Reversal Short Trigger: Hot CPI or failed breakout → 5m close < 6406–6410, then retest from below. Entry: 6406–6410. Invalidation: 5m close > 6413–6415. Targets: TP1: 6388–6392 TP2: 6376–6378 TP3: 6358–6362 Notes: Needs trend flip on 30m/15m (CHoCH/BOS down) & heavy offer-side aggression.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by MyAlgoIndex
5
S&P 500 (ES1!): Bullish! Look For Valid Buy Setups!In this video, we will analyze the following FX market for the week of Aug 11 - 15h: S&P 500 (ES1!) The S&P 500 rose Friday to close the week strong on a busy week of tariff updates and good earnings. There is no reason to consider selling. Wait for pullbacks to FVGs for high probability buys. Look for IRL to ERL, and repeat. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by RT_Money
Trump Boosts 401K Crypto Talk, But BTC Levels Lead the Way UP📢💥 Trump Boosts 401K Crypto Talk, But BTC Levels Lead the Way UP 🧠📊 News just dropped that President Trump may sign an executive order allowing crypto into 401(k) retirement plans. 🇺🇸📜 While that’s a massive headline, let’s stay grounded—we play the levels, not the politics. 🧘‍♂️📉📈 ⚠️ A quick disclaimer: It’s Trump, so… let’s see if the ink even hits the paper. But price is king, and the chart already gave us the real signal. 🔄 Bitcoin just reclaimed the single most important level: $115,800. This isn’t just a number—it was the previous ascending channel’s support, and it’s now acting as strong support again. This changes the game. 🟢 As I’ve mentioned in previous ideas, I remain hedged: ✔️ Long BTC ❌ Short S&P 500 That ratio is working out well, as shared earlier today in the post: “Bitcoin vs S&P 500 – Ratio Signals Strength” — it’s clear which asset the market favors. BTC is holding structure. SPX? Not so much. 📉🔍 🎯 Next upside target: $122,795 🚀 Bigger extension level: $132,595 🛑 Breakdown invalidation: Loss of $115,800 would weaken the case. News or not, structure always wins. Stay sharp, stay level-headed. The market rewards those who listen to the chart, not the noise. 📡🧠 One Love, The FX PROFESSOR 💙 Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by FX_Professor
Okay, Let's Take a Live Look Into the Market 📺⚡ Okay, Let's Take a Live Look Into the Market 💹🔥 Important levels across S&P 500, Bitcoin, and XRP are all flashing 🔴 right now. Here's what I'm seeing in real-time: 📈 S&P 500 Futures – 6,351 Is Everything The 6,351 level marks the midpoint of the rising channel. On Friday, I flagged 6,430 as critical resistance — price rejected perfectly. Now we’re attempting a rebound, but we’re stuck at mid-channel. ⚠️ A confirmed breakout above 6,351 could reignite upside momentum. 👉 Yes, this is a 1-minute chart, but precision matters when watching key structural levels — especially in legacy indices. 💥 BTC – 115,700: The Grandmaster Level Zoom out and see the massive yellow horizontal on the chart: 115,700. It’s not just any number — this is the ultimate resistance-turned-support battleground. We’re currently under it, which keeps pressure to the downside. A reclaim flips the structure bullish and opens room for trend continuation. 📌 Until we’re above it, this remains the dominant resistance across the entire crypto macro framework. 🧩 XRP – Still Facing Rejection On the 2H/3H chart, XRP continues to flirt with resistance but fails to confirm strength. This aligns with both the S&P 500 stalling at 6,351 and Bitcoin being capped at 115.7K. 📉 When multiple assets respect key levels in sync, it signals market-wide hesitation. 🔄 Cross-Market Confluence It’s fascinating to watch: A TradFi index (S&P) A macro crypto asset (BTC) A mid-tier alt (XRP) ...all pivoting around hyper-precise structural resistance at the same time. ✅ These aren’t coincidences. They’re systemic correlations. 🔮 What’s Next? If S&P 500 breaks above 6,351, it could act as a risk-on signal. That momentum could help BTC flip 115,700 — a massive deal. And if that happens, XRP could finally follow with a stronger move. Until then? We respect resistance and wait for confirmation. 📊🔍 One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙 Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
by FX_Professor
S&P 500: Bearish For The Short Term! Sell It!Welcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of July 28 - Aug 1st. In this video, we will analyze the following FX market for the week of Aug 4-8th: S&P 500 (ES1!) The S&P 500 rose Friday to fresh highs, following a busy week of tariff updates and earnings. The S&P ended the week with its fifth straight record close, its longest such streak in over a year. No reason to consider selling. Wait for pullbacks to FVGs for high probability buys. FOMC and NFP loom. Be careful to avoid new entries during news times. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
FX:SPX500Short
by RT_Money
5
S&P 500 (ES1): Post FOMC, Buyers Pushing Back To The Highs!In this video, we will analyze the following FX market for July 31 - Aug 1st. S&P 500 (ES1!) In the Weekly Forecast for the S&P 500, we highlighted: - price is bullish, and expected to go higher. It did move to ATH before pulling back. - the sell side liquidity under the ascending lows would draw price.... which it did. - the Area of Fair Value below the lows, with the Demand Zone as the potential level where a a high probability long could setup.... which was spot on! Did you benefit from the forecast? Let me hear from you if you did, in the comment section. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by RT_Money
4
S&P 500 ETF & Index Hit Resistance – A Technical Warning Shot 📉⚠️ S&P 500 ETF & Index Hit Resistance – A Technical Warning Shot 🔍🧠 Following up on the video I just posted , I had to share this updated chart of the VOO ETF (Vanguard S&P 500) and US500 Index , now that both are testing key resistance levels. On the left: AMEX:VOO has reached the very top of a multi-year ascending channel—a zone that has historically triggered sharp corrections. The level at 590.85 marks a major resistance zone. On the right: The US500 Index is showing a similar technical overextension, trading just under 6,450, with 5,928.25 as the nearest support below. 🎯 Technicals at play: VOO could retrace toward 526.17 and potentially 465.72, both of which are solid technical supports within this channel. This setup doesn't mean panic—but it does argue for caution, especially after such an extended run. 🧠 And yes, the Buffett Indicator (Stocks-to-GDP) continues to point toward an overheated market . While it's not a timing tool, it adds macro weight to the technical signals. In the video, I also touched on: Taking profits on NASDAQ:NVDA after a near-perfect technical rejection at target. Reviewing Rolls Royce nearing upper channel resistance. Gold and Silver at inflection points—likely to be impacted if equities begin to unwind. Rotational potential into Bitcoin and Ethereum, which may benefit from macro shifts. This is how I trade: respect structure, stay proactive, and prepare before the move—not after. Let me know how you’re positioning or if you’re sitting on hands waiting for a dip. One Love, The FX PROFESSOR 💙 Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
TRADENATION:US500
by FX_Professor
Here is WHY SP500 WILL SINK and you should SELL!I already made a techincal analysis on SP500 last week. Here i am again trying to warn you. I have a big convinction that SP500 will sink, and pretty hard. Lot of techincal indicator are showing weakness on the daily timeframe (RSI, MACD, AO, OBV), the political situation is getting complicated day by day, and our frind Powell will proably help to start this big moves soon. Checking the seasonality, it's also clear that a drop like that isn't new, and SP500 is following perfectly the average of previous years, and if history is going to repeat (and usually happens) we will see an exit liquidity from the markets in coming days. If you don't want to go short, at least consider to keep in safe your profits with the longs. What do you guys think about SP500? Are you bullish on it? Let me know in the commnts, i will be happy to read your ideas!
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by SaliJournal
8
S&P 500 Intraday & Swing Entries H1 entry is close to getting activated for intraday. If you want a swing trade then wait for H4 entry (you might be waiting a while obviously) Reason for entries - We have broken out of Balance since July 25th and currently in a trend phase until we establish a new value area, or return to the one we broke out from. So since Trend and Momentum is UP, then we should find Low Volume Areas to enter in the direction of the trend for a classic pullback entry trade.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by ExoProtocol
Nasdaq and S&P 500 higher than ever. Crash incoming??The stock market is now more expensive than ever. Some people are calling the top, saying that the market is overbought and too high. There are indicators that show that the market is overheated, but NO ONE KNOWS whether it's going to crash next week or continue running up for months. Since April, Nasdaq has gained 40%, which is a lot. Congrats if you bought some QLD and TQQQ back in April when I posted about it. SP:SPX : All-time high. NASDAQ:NDX : All-time high. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD : All-time high. TVC:GOLD : All-time high HOME PRICES ( ECONOMICS:USSFHP ): All-time high. Sounds a bit like a bubble. The S&P 500’s market cap now equals 28x real disposable personal income — a record. The stock market Shiller PE ratio is at its highest in 20 years. Nasdaq companies, especially the MAG7, are strongly outperforming small-cap companies. The last time this happened at this speed, we had the dot-com crash. The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 account for 40% of the index. So, saying this, is the market going to crash? I don't know, but I know that it's more likely to crash now than it was 3 months ago. It might continue running higher, too, as the FED is expected to cut rates. Really, no one knows. 😊 Here's what I'm doing: I trimmed down some overpriced stocks from my portfolio: Lemonade, Coupang, Shopify, and Crowdstrike I trimmed down some of my crypto, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum I stopped DCA'ing into leveraged ETFs I'm accumulating cash I'm still investing (added more healthcare stocks to the portfolio) Quick note: I'm just sharing my journey - not financial advice! 😊
SP:SPXShort
by HenriqueCentieiro
2
S&P 500 (ES1): Buyers In Control Amid Tariff Deals & EarningsWelcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of July 28 - Aug 1st. In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: S&P 500 (ES1!) The S&P 500 rose Friday to fresh highs, following a busy week of tariff updates and earnings. The S&P ended the week with its fifth straight record close, its longest such streak in over a year. No reason to consider selling. Wait for pullbacks to FVGs for high probability buys. FOMC and NFP loom. Be careful to avoid new entries during news times. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by RT_Money
History does not repeat itself, however it tends to rhymeIt’s widely accepted that Mark Twain once said (or wrote) that “history does not repeat itself, however it tends to rhyme”. Historical Parallels to a Super Cycle Wave (I) Top in U.S. Equities The road to a major market top is often paved with echoing patterns from the past, and today's landscape bears an uncanny resemblance to pivotal historical events that preceded economic upheaval. The 1918 Spanish Flu—though less economically damaging in the U.S. than elsewhere, still triggered a 1.5% drop in GDP and a 2.1% decline in consumer spending. The resulting economic weakness, paired with rising inflation, eroded real returns on equities and short-term government bonds for years. Then came the 1929 stock market crash, the spark that ignited the Great Depression. Driven by a perfect storm of extreme speculation, sky-high valuations, and a regulatory vacuum, the collapse revealed the systemic fragility beneath the euphoria. Adding fuel to the fire, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 slammed the brakes on global trade. By sharply raising tariffs on imports, it invited swift retaliatory measures from abroad. The result: a devastating plunge in both U.S. exports and imports, deepening the economic crisis and worsening unemployment. Smoot-Hawley has since become a textbook example of how protectionist policy can magnify economic damage. Modern Echoes: A Cycle Repeating? Fast forward to the present and we see unsettling similarities. The Covid-19 pandemic serves as a modern analog to the 1918 flu, disrupting global supply chains and triggering a steep drop in GDP and consumer spending. Unlike the post-WWI period, however, inflation didn’t precede the crisis, it exploded afterward, fueled by pent-up demand and fiscal stimulus, giving rise to persistent “sticky” inflation....and NOT TRANSITORY. In a similar inversion of sequence, the Trump-era tariffs—modern-day echoes of Smoot-Hawley, were enacted before any major equity downturn, not after. Still, their long-term impact on global trade and supply chain reliability remains a pressure point for the economy. Most critically, speculation and valuation excess are again center stage. Just as the roaring ’20s were characterized by euphoric risk-taking, today’s U.S. equity market is trading at record-high P/E ratios, despite rising macroeconomic uncertainty and deteriorating breadth. These historical and contemporary markers suggest we may be approaching the apex of a Super Cycle Wave (III), a turning point that, like its predecessors, may only be fully recognized in hindsight. It is my contention, that history is currently rhyming. Best to all, Chris
SP:SPX
by maikisch
2
S&P 500 Monthly Volatility Analysis From 1893 to July 2025Most of the time, the S&P 500 is seen as a low-volatility index when compared to most individual stocks, small-cap indexes, or indexes from other countries. However, most investors don't know exactly what volatility to expect from a statistical perspective. The Risk Distribution Histogram allows us to understand exactly how risk is distributed. S&P 500 Statistical Risk Distribution Here are some highlights from what we get from the analysis. Some of this data might actually surprise investors. The data is monthly: 27% of all months have volatility under 0.68% 80% of all months' volatility was under 4.79% 5% of all months had a volatility of over 7% If we can call a volatility over 25% a severe crash or "grey" swan, we had 7 of those events 3 months with extreme volatility over 30% This allows us to understand tail risk and plan ahead. While most times the S&P 500 is in the low volatility zone, extreme events can happen. What can we learn from this? Prepare for rare but possible high-volatility events. Understand the 80/20 rule. Most months are very low volatility, but 20% of them will have a volatility higher than 5% approximately. Avoid overconfidence in stability Plan for long-term horizons. High volatility tends to "dissipate" in the long term. This is why it's important not to discard rare high-volatility events, especially when the investor is in need of liquidity. This risk analysis can be done for any ticker.
SP:SPXEducation
by HenriqueCentieiro
Can the S&P 500's Ascent Continue?The S&P 500 recently achieved unprecedented highs, reflecting a multifaceted market surge. This remarkable performance stems primarily from a robust corporate earnings season. A significant majority of S&P 500 companies surpassed earnings expectations, indicating strong underlying financial health. The Communication Services and Information Technology sectors, in particular, demonstrated impressive growth, reinforcing investor confidence in the broader market's strength. Geopolitical and geostrategic developments have also played a crucial role in bolstering market sentiment. Recent "massive" trade agreements, notably with Japan and a framework deal with Indonesia, have introduced greater predictability and positive economic exchanges. These deals, characterized by reciprocal tariffs and substantial investment commitments, have eased global trade tensions and fostered a more stable international economic environment, directly contributing to market optimism. Ongoing progress in trade discussions with the European Union further supports this positive trend. Furthermore, resilient macroeconomic indicators underscore the market's upward trajectory. Despite a recent dip in existing home sales, key data points like stable interest rates, decreasing unemployment claims, and a rising manufacturing PMI collectively suggest an enduring economic strength. While technology and high-tech sectors, driven by AI advancements and strong earnings from industry leaders like Alphabet, remain primary growth engines, some segments, such as auto-related chipmakers, face challenges. The S&P 500's climb is a testament to the powerful confluence of strong corporate performance, favorable geopolitical shifts, and a resilient economic backdrop. While the immediate rally wasn't directly driven by recent cybersecurity events, scientific breakthroughs, or patent analyses, these factors remain critical for long-term market stability and innovation. Investors continue to monitor these evolving dynamics to gauge the sustainability of the current market momentum.
SP:SPXLong
by UDIS_View
Wall Street takes off: 5 secret growth engines for #S&P500 Record closes for the indices on July 21 came from a powerful combo: a surge in #Google , a strong start to the earnings season, gains in #Apple (+0.6%), #Amazon (+1.4%), plus #Microsoft, #Meta Platforms, and #Nvidia . This momentum, coupled with market bets on imminent Fed rate cuts and hopes for a softening US-EU tariff conflict, pushed #S&P500 and #NQ100 to new all-time highs. 5 mega drivers that could keep #S&P500 and #NQ100 on the runway through 2025: • AI capex and monetization: Top cloud providers are ramping up spending in computing clusters and generative AI solutions. The growing lineup of paid AI products (Google Gemini, Microsoft Copilot+ Apps, Amazon Bedrock) is starting to generate significant revenue, boosting profit estimates for the “Magnificent 7.” • Fed policy easing: If inflation keeps drifting towards 2%, we may see the first rate cut of the cycle between July and September. Historically, every 25 bps drop in 10-year UST yields adds ~2% to the #NQ100 ’s valuation multiple. • Record buybacks and dividends: #S&P500 companies hold $3.5 trillion in cash. After tax relief on repatriated foreign earnings earlier this year, several megacap boards approved accelerated buybacks — mechanically supporting stock prices. • Easing tariff risks: Potential trade deals between the US and EU, and the US and Mexico, would remove the threat of 20–50% tariffs priced into valuations, unlocking CAPEX in manufacturing and semiconductors — sectors with a heavy #NQ100 weight. • Resilient consumers and services: Unemployment remains near 4%, and household spending is growing 2–3% YoY. This supports e-commerce, streaming, and platform advertising — together making up ~40% of #NQ100 and ~28% of #S&P500 . The current highs of #S&P500 and #NQ100 aren’t a random spike — they result from strong corporate earnings, expectations of Fed cuts, and hopes of trade détente. If even some of these five drivers materialize, the indices have a strong chance to stay elevated and set new records by year-end. FreshForex analysts believe current prices could spark a new rally, with today’s market conditions offering plenty of entry points in both indices and stock CFDs.
VANTAGE:SP500Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
ES Weekly Outlook & Game Plan 20/07/2025ES Weekly Outlook & Game Plan 🧠 Fundamentals & Sentiment Market Context: ES continues its bullish momentum, driven by institutional demand and a supportive U.S. policy environment. 📊 Technical Analysis: Price is currently in price discovery, and the weekly structure remains strongly bullish — so I prefer to follow the strength. We might see a minor retracement before pushing further above the all-time high (ATH). 🎯 Game Plan: I'm expecting a potential retracement to the 0.5 Fibonacci level, which is the discount zone in a bullish environment. Interestingly, the 4H liquidity zone aligns perfectly with the 0.5 Fib level — this confluence suggests price may gather enough energy from there to make new highs. ✅ Follow for weekly recaps & actionable game plans.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by UA_CAPITAL
S&P 500: Buyers Are Still In Control! Continue To Look For LongsWelcome back to the Weekly Forex Forecast for the week of July 21-25th. In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: S&P 500 (ES1!) The Stock Indices are strong, and showing no signs of selling off. Buy it until there is a bearish BOS. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by RT_Money
BTC/USDT HIDDEN PATTERN! SM, FIB AND MORE COMFIRMED!Price Resilience Amid Geopolitical Stress Bitcoin demonstrated remarkable strength during the Israel-Iran conflict, briefly dipping to ~$98K but swiftly rebounding above $105K. This aligns with historical patterns where BTC initially sells off on geopolitical shocks but recovers aggressively within weeks, outperforming gold and equities by 15-60% post-crisis. There is a $96K-$94K "footprint" that coincided with institutional accumulation, evidenced by $1.37B in spot ETF inflows during the conflict week, led by BlackRock's IBIT ($240M single-day inflow) according to official information. This institutional backstop and many others might single-handedly prevented a deeper correction for now, remember that smart money psychology is to create cause out of thin air and buy during selling and indecisive times. Critical Levels to Watch Immediate Support: $108k area is vital. A sustained hold here maintains short-term bullish momentum. The 50-day SMA near $102.8K (tested during June 13 conflict sell-off) remains a macro support floor. Resistance & Targets: The $112K ATH is the near-term ceiling. Breaking this requires stronger spot demand—currently, net exchange inflows are negative, indicating weak retail participation or traders that are backing off for now.There's a $120K target (0.618 Fib) aligned with Standard Chartered’s $150K year-end model if ETF inflows persist. Risk Zones: A close below $108.3K risks a slide to $105K. Failure here opens path to $96K and a further break of this 92k to 96k zone could lead directly to 70k area or even lower if economical and social activities are not favorable in the near to medium future.Dominance above 55% (currently 65%) delays alt season, but a break below 60% could ignite alts in a positive way. Macro Catalysts & Market Sentiment Policy Tailwinds: Trump’s "One Big Beautiful Bill" (proposing $5T debt ceiling hike and U.S. strategic BTC reserves) could weaken the USD, boosting BTC’s "digital gold" narrative. DXY’s -9% YTD drop already correlates with BTC’s 54% post-election rally. Fed Influence: Pressure to cut rates (amid cooling employment data) may accelerate institutional rotation into BTC. ETF inflows hit $2.75B in late June, signaling renewed institutional FOMO. Geopolitical Cooling: Iran-Israel ceasefire talks reduced immediate panic, but residual volatility risk remains. Traders note BTC often rallies 20-40% within 60 days of conflict events. Structural Challenges Liquidity Fragility: Whale moves (for example: 10K BTC sell orders) now impact prices more due to ETF-driven liquidity concentration. Recent $98K flash crash exemplified this. Regulatory Overhang: MiCA compliance costs in the EU and U.S. security-reclassification proposals could pressure smaller tokens, though BTC’s status appears secure 28. Seasonal Slump: July historically sees 6.1% of annual crypto volume—low volatility may delay breakouts until August 4. Strategic Outlook A July breakout above $112K could ignite the next leg to $120K, but a retest of $107K-$105K is likely first. Altcoins remain subdued until BTC dominance breaks <55%—select projects with institutional backing (for example, ETF candidates) or real-world utility for asymmetric opportunities. Conclusion: BTC’s resilience amid chaos confirms its institutional maturity. Trade the $108.3K-$112K range aggressively, with a break above ATH targeting $120K by September. Always hedge tail risks (escalations, regulatory shocks) in this volatility-rich asset class. While this great surge in institutional inflow is good for BTC it also indicates a reduction or slower pace of other crypto currencies. This is my analysis for BTC, let me know what you think and I hope you like it!
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by Neldjouw
4