US Stocks Pare Back All Tariff-Fueled Losses. Are We So Back?Remember “Liberation Day”? The one that felt more like Liquidation Day ? When markets tanked, tickers turned red, and you were afraid to check the markets on the next day? Well, turns out the rumors of the market’s demise were — once again — greatly exaggerated.
If the average recession 10 years ago lasted two years, this year’s recession was approximately 37 minutes (more or less, depending on the day).
Just a month ago, the S&P 500 SP:SPX started crumbling to the point it entered into correction territory (and then got out of correction territory ).
Long story short, it took the punches, went down 15%, stood back up, and is now throwing jabs with a nine-day winning streak — its longest since 2004, when iPods were still a thing and Facebook was just for Harvard students.
So… are we back? Like, really back? Let’s dig in.
💰 Trillions Lost, Trillions Found
On April 2, President Donald Trump dropped the hammer — or rather, the online post — unveiling his “reciprocal tariffs,” which, in true Trumpian fashion, sounded equal parts policy and promo PR.
Markets didn’t take it well. Global stocks collectively threw a tantrum. The S&P 500 dropped like it had a brick in its pocket . Financials cratered, energy took a gut punch, and tech? See for yourself — we don't want to talk about it .
But now? The dip buyers are shopping up, scooping up, snapping up everything from banks to oil stocks to beleaguered megacaps. Suddenly, all those stock discounts look like missed opportunities, and the cash-on-the-sidelines traders are jumping in.
👌 Jobs Data: Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold
Friday was a good day. Why? Because April’s nonfarm payrolls ECONOMICS:USNFP report came in at 177,000 jobs — not too strong to trigger Fed-tightening fears, not too weak to imply economic decay. It was the goldilocks print.
The number was a drop from March’s revised 185,000, but what mattered was the beat: economists had pencilled in just 135,000. Markets took that as permission to throw a party.
The S&P 500 jumped 1.5%, reclaiming the level it had before Trump’s tariff tirade and putting an emphatic end to the selloff. Nine green days in a row? That’s a bull flex Wall Street hasn’t seen in two decades.
💥 Truth Social Posts That Move Markets
Not to be left out of the celebration, Trump hopped onto Truth Social with his usual caps lock enthusiasm:
“THE FED SHOULD LOWER ITS RATE!!!”
Sounds familiar?
Still, even without a rate cut (for now), the market got what it wanted: signs that the US labor market isn’t collapsing, trade talks might be back on the table, and the economy hasn’t lost its way.
😌 A Global Sigh of Relief
While the US led the rally, global markets also joined the rebound chorus. China’s commerce ministry chimed in Friday, saying Washington had expressed a “desire to engage in discussions.” In market-speak, that translates to: "Everyone calm down — we might not blow this up after all."
It doesn’t take much to change sentiment. A tweet here, a headline there, a hint of diplomatic progress — suddenly risk appetite returns and everyone forgets they were panic-selling just three weeks ago.
But don’t go lining up the espresso martinis just yet — not everything is fully recovered. The US dollar, for example, remains nearly 4% below its pre-tariff-announcement level.
🤔 We Are So… Back?
So are we officially back? Short answer — “put the word out there that we back up” for now . Markets are up, volatility is down, and everyone’s pretending they didn’t sell the dip at the worst possible time.
But — and you knew there’d be a “but” — caution still applies. Trade tensions aren’t over. The next Trump post could shake things again. The Fed hasn’t made its next move (that’s coming this Wednesday). And geopolitics remains a powder keg.
Still, what this rebound tells us is clear: the market has resilience. Maybe not logic. Maybe not grace. But resilience? Yes.
It also reminds us that trying to time news-driven selloffs is a dangerous game. Often, the best trades happen when fear peaks and everyone else is running for the hills.
👉 Final Thoughts: Watch the Calendar, Not the Chaos
The key takeaway from this tariff-to-rally rollercoaster? Markets can move fast — but they can also recover faster. If you panicked, you probably sold low. If you stayed focused, checked the earnings calendar , and remembered that market narratives shift like wind direction, you're probably doing well right now.
We’re so back — for now. But stay sharp. This market may have nine lives, but it also has the attention span of a toddler.
Your move : Did you ride the dip? Buy the bounce? Or just mute the chaos and sip your coffee? Drop your best “Liberation Day to Redemption Rally” trade below.
SPX (S&P 500 Index)
SPX: trade should not be a weaponPositive sentiment continued on the US equity markets during the previous week, after stronger than expected US jobs data. The Non-farm payrolls posted on Friday reached 177K in April, which was significantly above the 130K expected by the market. The market estimate was significantly lower from March data, as analysts were expecting to see a spill over effect of the imposed trade tariffs. As the jobs market seems still quite strong, the positive market sentiment was intact during the week. However, the recession fears are still holding among investors. The S&P 500 continued its 9-days winning streak, ending the week at the level of 5.686.
On a positive side was the news that Chinese authorities are considering starting negotiations with the US Administration regarding trade tariffs. This was another positive boost for investors' sentiment. Berkshire Hathaway was holding shareholders annual meeting on Saturday, where the most attention of both media and investors was on the speech of its founder and famous investor, Warren Buffet. In his address to the shareholders, Buffet strongly criticized the trade tariffs, noting “Trade tariffs are an act of war … trade should not be a weapon’.
For the moment, it could be expected that the positive sentiment might continue also in the future period. However, the FOMC meeting and Fed rate decision is scheduled for Wednesday, May 7th. This could be a day of higher volatility, as Fed Chair Powell will address the public at the press conference after the meeting. The markets will closely watch what he has to say regarding the current state of the US economy and potential rate cuts during the course of this year.
S&P 500 Braces for a Drop to $5,100–$5,177: Correction Coming?S&P 500 Braces for a Drop to $5,100–$5,177: Is the Correction Coming?
SP500 Reached the target of $5,680 - $5,800 and is going into correction along with Bitcoin 🤔.
Before:
After:
➖ The S&P 500 could fall to the 5100–5177 range due to the following fundamental factors:
FOMC Meeting on May 7: Expected rate hold and potentially hawkish rhetoric from Powell could amplify fears of rate hikes, hitting growth stocks.
➖ Trade War: Uncertainty in U.S.-China negotiations and risks of new tariffs threaten supply chains and corporate profits.
➖ Weak Economy: GDP contraction (-0.3% in Q1), recession fears, and weak PMI data fuel pessimism.
➖ Corporate Earnings: Disappointing guidance from key companies (e.g., Apple, Tesla) could trigger sell-offs.
➖ Sentiment on X: Bearish sentiment reflects market caution.
➖ Global Risks: Retaliatory tariffs and rising gold prices signal a flight from U.S. assets.
Assumption: If the Fed on May 7 emphasizes inflation risks and delays rate cuts, and tariff news remains negative, the S&P 500 could break support at 5500 and reach 5100–5177 within 1–2 weeks, especially amid technical selling and market panic.
S&P Melt-Up, FOMC, Gold, Bitcoin - Key Levels and OutlooksHappy Saturday!!!
I just finished a live roundtable session so charts and analysis was fresh on the mind.
S&P just closed 9 consecutive days higher
S&P Futures 9 green candles
The melt-up has been slow and steady, but persistent
Markets are now "repaired" back to or above the US Liberation Day break levels
on April 2/April 3
I see some near-term resistance in the S&P with FOMC coming this week. There
are some reasonable gaps lower for some pullbacks, but the PAIN trade persists.
The "pain" trade now is higher highs because sentiment is so bearish.
The "pain" trade if we see all-time highs would be a bull trap.
FED is likely staying paused for May and June per the FED Watch Tool and the first rate
cut may start in July 2025. But I'm watching US Yields to see if they persist higher because
that may ruin the FED's plan and power and 40+ year correlations.
Eyes wide open and small risk. Short-term strategies are doing well in this environment.
I'll continue to grind.
Thanks for watching!!!
SPX: Short term bearish to touch gap? And fill? Looking like there is apparently “no tariff talks” per China.
We’re still in such an uptrend, but looking for a short-term pull back on negative news. Also we have FOMC this week. Does Powell give what Trump and the people want, a rate cut?
I’m looking for 5678.33 to
- TP1: 5672.46
- TP2: 5635.06
Possible touch or fill gap of below 5603.21?
Let me know what you think. Do your DD, not FA. Let’s see what the week brings.
BRIEFING Week #18 : Waiting for RotationHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
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Kindly,
Phil
May 2nd Trade Journal & Stock Market Analysis** May 2nd Trade Journal & Stock Market Analysis**
EOD accountability report: +821
Sleep: 6 hour, Overall health: :thumbsup:
Another great day in the market, Signals worked decent.
**Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System**
— 12:50 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal :check:
— 1:12 PM VXAlgo ES X3 Sell Signal :x:
— 3:30 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! :check:
Next day plan--> Over 5650 = Bullish, Under 5650 = Bearish
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
Hurst's 4.5 Year cycles is in "Time wise"=Trough is close or notHurst's Cyclic Theory:
The basic tenant behind this theory is that markets achieve significant lows (or troughs) at the beginning (or end) of a cycle. Cycles have varying degrees based on wave length (in time) and are harmonized with the higher level cycles.
- Blue is 4.5 starting the day of the IPO !!!
S&P500 1st 4H Golden Cross since Jan could be a TRAP!S&P500 (SPX) completed yearly today its first Golden Cross on the 4H time-frame since January 23. That formation issued an immediate pull-back but technically it's not very similar to the today's as that was formed after an All Time High (ATH) while now we are on the recovery phase after March's massive Trade War fueled correction.
The 4H Golden Cross however that looks more similar to the current is the one before January's, the August 21 2024. That was formed after a substantial market pull-back, though again not as strong as March's. Still, the 1D RSI patterns are also more similar and that again should keep us on high alert as 2 weeks later the index pulled back to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level from its previous High Resistance.
As a result, if we see the price now turning sideways for a week or so, we will give higher probabilities for a short-term pull-back, maybe not as low as the 0.5 Fib but at least to the 5450 region, before the market takes off to 6000.
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Major shift on the S&P 500: Is the bull market really over ?
After three years of almost uninterrupted gains, the U.S. market has finally shifted gears.
In early March, following a sharp escalation in trade tensions between China and the United States, the S&P 500 officially entered a bear market.
The tariff shock acted as a catalyst: buyers failed to defend critical levels, and the bullish momentum broke down.
Today, my scenario is clear:
I believe we are entering a wide range similar to what we saw in 2022, between 4700 and 5500 points.
In this controlled volatility environment, both investing and trading strategies must adapt.
💰 For long-term investing:
I'm staying fully in cash.
I prefer to wait until my personal indicator flashes green again before re-entering the market.
Patience is my best weapon in uncertain environments.
🎯 For swing trading:
The approach here is more active.
Each touch of the lower boundary (around 4700) will be considered a tactical buy, aiming to resell around 5500 points at the top of the range.
No rushing, no chasing moves: I only act at the extremes.
May 1st Trade Journal & Stock Market Analysis**May 1st Trade Journal & Stock Market Analysis**
EOD accountability report: +441
Sleep: 7 hour, Overall health: :thumbsup:
Signals were pretty solid today, but there's heavy MM manipulation in the market so be careful trading funded accounts.
Walk away if you get tilted.
**Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System**
9:51 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
10:30 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
11:31 AM VXAlgo YM X1 Sell Signal
12:08 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
1:47 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
Next day plan--> Over 5600 = Bullish, Under 5600 = Bearish
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 2, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 2, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🇺🇸 Rising Unemployment Claims Signal Labor Market Softening
Initial jobless claims increased by 18,000 to 241,000 for the week ending April 26, marking the highest level since late February. Continuing claims also rose to 1.916 million, indicating potential cracks in the labor market.
🏭 Manufacturing Sector Contracts Amid Tariff Pressures
The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 in April from 49.0 in March, indicating a second consecutive month of contraction. Tariffs on imported goods have strained supply chains and elevated input prices, contributing to the downturn.
📉 Construction Spending Declines
Construction spending decreased by 0.5% in March, reflecting reduced investments in both residential and nonresidential projects. This decline suggests caution in the construction sector amid economic uncertainties.
📊 Mixed Signals from Manufacturing Indices
While the ISM Manufacturing PMI indicates contraction, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI remained steady at 50.2 in April, suggesting stability in some manufacturing segments despite broader challenges.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Friday, May 2:
💼 Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30 AM ET)
Provides insight into employment trends and overall economic health.
📈 Unemployment Rate (8:30 AM ET)
Measures the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment.
💰 Average Hourly Earnings (8:30 AM ET)
Indicates wage growth and potential inflationary pressures.
🏭 Factory Orders (10:00 AM ET)
Reflects the dollar level of new orders for both durable and nondurable goods, indicating manufacturing sector strength.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
SPY at 3 important event! POC, 200 ema and 30 days reversalHi All SPY is at an interesting intersection:
1) a month from where it crashed and reversed entirely
2) At point of control (POC) from the top in Feb
3) at 200 ema
In Aug 22 SPY reversed from POC, at other times it found support or broke out with a gap
My opinion is, it will continue going up till 13th May (date when CPI is published). Nobody knows for sure how much tariff will impact CPI. It cannot as bad as we had during covid.
If you think the 2025 bottom is in you couldn't be more wrongIf you think the bottom for 2025 is in and it's only up from here let me have what you're smoking.
Just a puff, please!
About 80% of social media retail traders are confidently calling a bottom, that's a major contrarian signal.
Herding equals danger!
If everyone is bullish, most are already positioned long leaving a few buyers to push prices higher.
It's known as "pain trade" where markets often move in the direction that causes the most discomfort.
Many of loudest voices are retail traders influencers chasing engagement, not portfolio managers or data driven strategists.
AMEX:SPY SP:SPX NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:DIA NASDAQ:META NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:GOOG NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:AMZN
Mechanical Over Mood. AlwaysWell, this week really wanted to test both my trading discipline… and my tech patience.
My laptop decided to kick the bucket mid-session.
But honestly? Not even mad.
Because it reminded me of something traders forget too often:
Simple is better. Mechanical is best.
No charts? No problem.
Noisy bias? Ignore it.
Just follow the system and let the setups do the work.
And right now?
The market gave us a Tag off the lower Bollinger Band…
Then a Turn with some clean bullish pulse bars…
Now we’re tagging the upper band again.
Textbook mechanical structure.
No predictions. No overlays. Just rules.
Yes, compression still lingers – the bands are squeezed tighter than my laptop battery casing.
But until something breaks out (or explodes), I’m trading it simple.
---
SPX Market View
Some days the market whispers.
Some days it screams.
And then… there are days like this – where it quietly tags, turns, and retags like a kid playing solo hide and seek.
Welcome to compression.
Welcome to Tag ‘n Turn 2: Return to the Band.
Yesterday gave us exactly what we needed:
Tag off the lower Bollinger Band
Bullish pulse bars firing in sequence
Now back to the upper BB as of this morning
It’s a full mechanical cycle playing out in slow motion.
The band width? Still squeezed.
So unless we get a confirmed breakout – no compounding, no fireworks, no fast lane.
That’s not a problem.
It’s a feature.
Why?
Because in environments like this, the strategy doesn’t just work – it filters the noise.
No guesswork. No hoping. No “is this the one?”
Just a defined setup, and a playbook that responds only when the price earns it.
I’m staying bullish as long as this range holds.
Pulse bars off the highs or lows? I’m in.
Breakout confirmed? Let’s ride it.
Dip to mid-band? Still valid.
The structure is intact.
The setup is valid.
And even if my laptop’s dying breath is a warning beep, I’ll still be trading off what matters.
Trade the system. Trust the sequence. Let the rest break down.
---
Expert Insights:
Mistake #1: Overcomplicating compressed conditions.
Compression doesn’t mean “do more” – it means “do less, better.”
Fix: Let the pulse bar do the talking. Keep your setup clean.
Mistake #2: Ignoring band re-tags as valid setups.
Returning to the upper or lower band doesn’t invalidate the prior move.
Fix: Use structure. Re-tags can still deliver if pulse bars confirm.
Mistake #3: Letting tech failures bleed into trading decisions.
Just because your screen flickers doesn’t mean your system broke.
Fix: Stay mechanical. Even from a mobile. It’s not the gear – it’s the method.
---
Rumour Has It…
Wall Street insiders are reporting that Apple’s next product will be the MacBook Trader, a laptop designed specifically to fail whenever Bollinger Bands compress.
Features include:
An auto-dimming screen whenever pulse bars form
A built-in “Hope Mode” that deletes your rulebook
And a random error that whispers “maybe just this once…”
Traders are advised to plug directly into their mechanical setups or, failing that, scribble strategies on a coffee-stained napkin like it’s 2002.
Rumour has it that a squirrel from Central Park is currently outperforming several hedge funds using nothing but broken Fibonacci tools and pure optimism.
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
---
Fun Fact – Did You Know?
The term “Frankenstein” originally came from Mary Shelley’s story of a scientist trying to control something he didn’t fully understand…
Which is what most traders do with indicators.
They bolt on RSI here, MACD there, sprinkle in some Fibonacci dust, and hope it walks.
But the real monsters aren’t the tools – they’re discretionary trades pretending to be mechanical.
Moral of the story?
You don’t need a stitched-together algo monster.
You just need a clean pulse bar, a set of rules, and the ability to sit still.
Bulls and Bears zone for 05-01-2025S&P 500 is going to have a gap up Open and finally closing gap from early last month.
Also traders could be taking profit after yesterday's big UP move.
Level to watch: 5643 ---5645
Reports to watch:
US : PMI Manufacturing Final 945am
US : ISM Manufacturing Index 1000am
US : Construction Spending 1000am
SPY - dump or bull market is back?hi traders,
Some months ago, we shared the idea where we explained that SPX will experience a correction:
The targets were reached, and next we saw a decent bounce, which is very well visible on the monthly candle.
Today, I see a lot of excitement about the monthly close, and many people call for a new all-time high soon.
I want to bring to your attention the monthly close in 2000.
It looks very similar to what we got yesterday.
A long, lower-shadow wick resulted in a bearish imbalance characterised by an excess of sellers, exerting downward pressure.
I still can see SPY/SPX retesting 570-580 levels, but it doesn't change the fact that lower levels may be tested in the next few weeks/months.
We got a bearish cross on the monthly time frame, which is not a joke.
If bears take control, I expect SPY to visit 460~ levels and later even lower: 410-408.
Long story short:
1. Short-term bounce may continue.
2. Mid-term - bears will take control, and we will see a bigger correction.
Do you agree? Share your opinion in the comments section
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 1, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 1, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🇺🇸 Q1 GDP Contraction Raises Recession Fears
The U.S. economy shrank for the first time in three years, down 0.3% in Q1. Weaker government spending and a rise in imports ahead of Trump’s tariff policies are weighing on growth outlook.
📈 Big Tech Lifts the Market
Strong earnings from Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) and Meta ( NASDAQ:META ) have boosted sentiment. Meta’s revenue guidance and capex surge point to aggressive growth positioning in AI and infrastructure.
🏛️ Treasury Refunding Outlook in Focus
Markets are watching the quarterly refunding announcement for clues on upcoming bond issuance. This could influence rate volatility as the Treasury balances deficits and market demand.
🌐 Risk-On Mood Despite Macro Headwinds
Global stocks notched a 4-week high as traders bet on resilient earnings and central bank policy steadiness, even as U.S. macro data softens.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Thursday, May 1:
📈 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET)
Tracks new unemployment filings – a key gauge of near-term labor market stress.
📈 Continuing Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET)
Measures ongoing unemployment benefit recipients, reflecting persistent joblessness.
🏗️ Construction Spending (10:00 AM ET)
Reports monthly change in total construction outlays — a direct measure of real economy investment.
🏭 ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM ET)
Provides a snapshot of U.S. factory activity. Readings below 50 suggest contraction.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
SPX bullishI am now bullish in near term. For those following me, I have updated HILO EMA squeeze band with an option to plot more lines as seen this chart. I see a swing high of 5770, although a bit cautious about the month end. Market is tired of Trump tantrums and more focused on earnings which have been great so far. For near term month or two I would be looking for bye the dip
April 30 Trade Journal & Stock Market Analysis
EOD accountability report: -1310 on a Eval. + 125 on Funded
Sleep: 8 hour, Overall health: :thumbsup:
I used a trailing stoploss ATM order by mistake, and got rid of the stoploss, because market zig zagging it up. BAD BAD Idea
Market humbled me by showing me why i should always have stoploss on.
Back to doing manual stoploss and getting rid of trailing stops because they are horrible during chops
**Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System**
10:48 AM VXAlgo NQ X3 Buy Signal
11:00 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
— 12:10 PM VXAlgo NQ X1 Sell Signal,
— 2:29 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal, (triple sell)
3:30 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3 (False signal, got cancelled right away)
Next day plan-->
Video Recap -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts