iShares 20 Year Treasury Bond | TLT | Long in the $80sFor the patient, one of the "safest" investments is in long-term treasury bonds (specifically NASDAQ:TLT ). For those who may not understand why, bond prices move inversely to yields. If interest rates drop (which the Federal Reserve has stated is going to happen this year), NASDAQ:TLT will rise. If interest rates rise (like what happened in early 2022), NASDAQ:TLT will fall. But all information from the Federal Reserve points to interest rate cuts starting this year *or* in the near future.
As of April 1st, 2025, the dividend yield for NASDAQ:TLT is 4.52%. That interest rate beats the vast majority of savings accounts right now. I don't think we will see NASDAQ:TLT prices in the $80's longer than a year or two. A contrarian may argue "inflation is rising!", but the data continue to point to it actually stabilizing. Yes, prices are higher compared to 4-5 years ago for just about everything... but the higher prices are "stable". Tariffs may put a slight wrinkle in this stability in the near-term, but I think the economy is already slowing and the Federal Reserve will be pressured to start dropping interest rates sooner than later.
I believe a global economic bust is inevitable - but no one knows when. Anyone who says they can time it is a charlatan. If/when a global economic bust occurs, the Federal Reserve will drop interest rates (like what happened in 2020) to get the economy juiced up again. NASDAQ:TLT will double in price or go further.
My general point is I *believe* NASDAQ:TLT is nearing a low and any future declines (especially below $80) are personal opportunities for buy-and-hold. It's a solid hedge with a good dividend. Options don't give you that and timing events is a guessing game for every retail trader. So, as someone who tries to think beyond the "now", I am gathering shares, enjoying the dividend, and not touching them until a global economic bust occurs. Currently holding positions at $85, $86, $87, and $90.
Targets:
2027: $100.00
2028: $105.00
2029: $110.00
2030: $115.00
Bust (unknown timing): $170+
